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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #10,001
  • Aug 26, 2009 10:48am Aug 26, 2009 10:48am
Quoting 5%er
Here is an anticipated trading pathway of the EUR/USD. It is a not derived from technical analysis, but rather intuitive means
to anticipate= to forecast = to predict...
Are you aware of it?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #10,002
  • Aug 26, 2009 10:55am Aug 26, 2009 10:55am
Quoting gdb
Well today I thought that I would work as best as I could with the strategy .
So I put a scout in at 11:00 a.m long eur/usd to test the water..
At the time using the 1hr and 15 mins it seemed like a reasonable option..
Of course since then the market has just been freefalling - and I thought that I could rescue the 1 small scout and could practise..and could turn it round..
Every now and then I thought that the market was bound to turn/would turn..and I could increase the position sizes to pull back into break even..
But it hasnt turned or I have...
Hi gbd,
Sorry about your day, but not really sorry. It is a learning day for you that cost you very little but may pay big dividends in the future. Do not focus on what happened to your margin account, but instead go back and study the charts. The key to how to trade - not just today but every day - is in the charts today. Look for where you should have entered, and especially look for where you should have not entered. This was a very good trading day and a good study day. Good luck to you and focus on what fti has taught you. Good trading.
  • #10,003
  • Aug 26, 2009 10:58am Aug 26, 2009 10:58am
Quoting gdb
Greetings jpax..and other dollar bears (a rare breed today?)
hey gdb,
wat u r doing is simply adding to ur losses... which is gravely wrong,
no matter how much u win , u r bound to lose it all if u simply add to ur losses ...
once a visible trend change is shown , get out , moreover in ur case ur scout/cap is pretty high (2) [ I recommend 0.5 for starting ... ]
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,004
  • Edited 11:09am Aug 26, 2009 10:58am | Edited 11:09am
@gdb

I wouldn't worry about it too much. It's really annoying and discouraging at the time but it soon passes. I blew up about 9 demo accounts in the space of three weeks before I decided to go live (!!!) as I thought I would be more controlled with real money - what a fool... Then I lost 25% of my account when I went into mad martingale mode because I couldn't accept taking a loss in the first place and like you, continually tried to dig myself out of a hole without any real plan.

If anything I was even less disciplined with my own money than I was with the demo accounts (the first time I tried a live account). I should have listened to fti who said that I should trade a demo account for three months while keeping it in profit - or at least ending up flat, before attempting to go live - and he was right of course.

Who in their right mind would think that if they were not even capable of keeping a demo account in the black, that they had any chance of doing so with real money? It was a totally ridiculous decision of mine in retrospect, which I tried to justify to myself by saying that I would be more serious and pay more attention with real money.

The truth of the matter was that I was just being greedy and wanted to leap in there and start making some pips for myself, even though I was incapable of doing so.

Anyway, I am still having my moments but have managed to keep my starting capital intact this time, and hopefully I have finally learned something today. There are only so many times you can keep falling in the same hole before everyone realises what a fool you are (talking about myself, not you!)

I had no respect for the markets and too much arrogance due to a good start.

I can't recommend strongly enough fti's advice re.demo trading. I felt a real sense of accomplishment after sticking at it for the full three months and making a good profit.

Open another account and start afresh - it feels good to have a decent balance again!
  • #10,005
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:00am Aug 26, 2009 11:00am
Quoting luSan
to anticipate= to forecast = to predict...
Are you aware of it?
Hi luSan, glad to see you are trading today, but thought you were on your way to North Carolina. Hope you are well.
  • #10,006
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:06am Aug 26, 2009 11:06am
Quoting 5%er
Here is an anticipated trading pathway of the EUR/USD. It is a not derived from technical analysis, but rather intuitive means
OK, I have to tell you that I do not know what you are talking about. LOL
  • #10,007
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:12am Aug 26, 2009 11:12am
Quoting GEfx
Hi gbd,
Sorry about your day, but not really sorry. It is a learning day for you that cost you very little but may pay big dividends in the future. Do not focus on what happened to your margin account, but instead go back and study the charts. The key to how to trade - not just today but every day - is in the charts today. Look for where you should have entered, and especially look for where you should have not entered. This was a very good trading day and a good study day. Good luck to you and focus on what fti has taught you. Good trading.

Thanks GEfx for your comments and advice - it is a good day to learn..
At least I havent blown the real money account (yet!)
Changing to fti's way is no walk in the park
But the help on this forum is much appreciated and a big help..
  • #10,008
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:20am Aug 26, 2009 11:20am
Quoting maheswara
hey gdb,
wat u r doing is simply adding to ur losses... which is gravely wrong,
no matter how much u win , u r bound to lose it all if u simply add to ur losses ...
once a visible trend change is shown , get out , moreover in ur case ur scout/cap is pretty high (2) [ I recommend 0.5 for starting ... ]
Thanks maheswara..
You are right..
I got in too deep too quick - and then kept expecting the market to turn..
Of course - I had no justification for making that assumption..
I need to look at my whole strategy again and work out a sensible set of limits for my circumstances..
Hope your day has been successful..
  • #10,009
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:28am Aug 26, 2009 11:28am
Quoting ukmanthailan
@gdb

I wouldn't worry about it too much. It's really annoying and discouraging at the time but it soon passes. I blew up about 9 demo accounts in the space of three weeks before I decided to go live (!!!) as I thought I would be more controlled with real money - what a fool... Then I lost 25% of my account when I went into mad martingale mode because I couldn't accept taking a loss in the first place and like you, continually tried to dig myself out of a hole without any real plan.

If anything I was even less disciplined with my own money than...

Thanks for that..ukmanthailan
Your advice is much appreciated.
And keeping a demo account in the black for 3 months has to make sense before risking/investing hard earned cash.
Clearly it is not as easy as it might appear...
  • #10,010
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:41am Aug 26, 2009 11:41am
Imagine, that you have perfect computer, which invert all orders... from a begginer trader. The trader see short, coputer goes long... So when he/she sees that account is blown, it is full of money... If this is true, i think that it is matter of human mind. Have to go against something in the head. I do mistakes ..rarely.., but when i do them, have to rest, simply stay and thing... "I was so emotionally fanatic...silly and... Right,i deserve it. Go ahead. And than, after such big mistake, i am sure i do right, because i know myself.
  • #10,011
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:44am Aug 26, 2009 11:44am
Maybe sometimes i should pay myself for sgnals:-)
  • #10,012
  • Aug 26, 2009 2:53pm Aug 26, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting 5%er
Here is an anticipated trading pathway of the EUR/USD. It is a not derived from technical analysis, but rather intuitive means
You will find others interested in 6th sense trading here,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=179650
  • #10,013
  • Aug 26, 2009 4:45pm Aug 26, 2009 4:45pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi luSan, glad to see you are trading today, but thought you were on your way to North Carolina. Hope you are well.
Actually I have to return to NC for another full day interview. Now I am in new York city taking care of family business. No more trading this week. It was an excellent week: 8 wins -no losses.
Cu
u
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #10,014
  • Aug 26, 2009 6:16pm Aug 26, 2009 6:16pm
Quoting maheswara
10000th post !

dedicated to fti sir,
thank you for the teaching , the help , the spanking , the love , the wisdom , the...
basically thankyou for everything
peace
Congratulation Fti & thanks for everything you 've done.

May good Karma come to you with lots of pips & good health too

Best regards,


Pete.
  • #10,015
  • Edited 7:51pm Aug 26, 2009 6:19pm | Edited 7:51pm
Quoting Fana
Hello. Thank you FTI and MAHESWARA, my first live trading month 12% gain. 150trades, 2big mistakes...
Hi Fana,

Congratulation Happy for you Fana, I wish I can be like you one day.
For sure Maheswara is very young great guy . He's also coaching me too. I would like to thank him for his time & knowleadge to help me & hope one day I'ld be able to do the same by helping newbies.

regards,

Pete
  • #10,016
  • Aug 27, 2009 12:57am Aug 27, 2009 12:57am
It's all looking a bit messy today - no real direction right now - doesn't seem to be with the DJIA today either.

@ lusan. I did take note of your advice and I was inclined to agree with you at first but on second thoughts I recovered all my capital and a small profit yesterday so I don't feel "damaged" so to speak. I also think that I cannot walk away for several days, every time I drop a clanger, or I will never get into my stride. I am being careful though and won't be trying to launch any massive attacks. Slow and steady. I'm waiting on the sidelines at the moment though. I know the MO calls for a scout to be placed for feeling the action, but with my small amount of capital I like to give it the best chance of being in the right direction before entering.
  • #10,017
  • Aug 27, 2009 1:24am Aug 27, 2009 1:24am
Quoting ukmanthailan
It's all looking a bit messy today - no real direction right now - doesn't seem to be with the DJIA today either.

@ lusan. I did take note of your advice and I was inclined to agree with you at first but on second thoughts I recovered all my capital and a small profit yesterday so I don't feel "damaged" so to speak. I also think that I cannot walk away for several days, every time I drop a clanger, or I will never get into my stride. I am being careful though and won't be trying to launch any massive attacks. Slow and steady. I'm waiting on...
Hi UkMan,
glad to hear that you made your losses back.

Just for my info: Are you trading mini or micro lots?
  • #10,018
  • Aug 27, 2009 1:24am Aug 27, 2009 1:24am
I was a little bit in a gambling mood before entered short EU at 1.4244 40 38 expected market to break support. Now was a litl pullback waiting don't take any action. What do you suggest me for a money managment. I'm little bit confused about it. I will use scew 1 2 1 for attack but don't know how to defend. I have 114 USD on account 0.01 lot is same 1 USD that means around 1%. Is it too small account?
  • #10,019
  • Aug 27, 2009 1:28am Aug 27, 2009 1:28am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I know the MO calls for a scout to be placed for feeling the action, but with my small amount of capital I like to give it the best chance of being in the right direction before entering.
I agree ukman ...I send scout out only if immediate terrain is showing favourable conditions...and also my mindset ready for the task at hand...whatever that may bring....hopefully not prolonged as that is not good for my mindset....

Sometimes scout goes a bit AWOL ...I don't get stressed anymore ...just cut his supplies until he starts behaving..(make sure smallest size comfortable with and go and relax ...chill out with whatever your poison)

I do not have fti's stamina to battle for days

forgot to say well done on rescue...sounds like you are doing just fine...

joy
  • #10,020
  • Aug 27, 2009 1:57am Aug 27, 2009 1:57am
Quoting MaMood
Hi UkMan,
glad to hear that you made your losses back.

Just for my info: Are you trading mini or micro lots?
Well that's a good question - I am supposed to be trading micro lots but there were some mini lots involved with my problems yesterday - enough said!

@joypips Hello - haven't seen you around for a while - how are things going for you?
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