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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #42,281
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:57pm Aug 26, 2009 9:57pm
Still finding my way, so pls bear with me.
I tend to post the stuff I'm not clear about here for some reason.
Trying to hedge the downside per se I guess.

I know many of the more experienced folks here stick to 1 timeframe, but here it goes.....
I'm working on integrating timeframes here. Daily & 4hr.
Mainly inspired by 1 of Mike's posts on a USDCAD pin (short) I was in that got cleaned out cause the weekly had a pinbar off wkly PPZ.
Looked like a small pin to me in weekly, but in 4hour, it turned into a trend.

Hence the bigger TFs to me, are real important.
VERY Generally, unless they're ranging/consolidating, I'm kinda scared to go against a strong trend in the bigger TFs.

This also implies that I should be more inclined to go with Daily/Wkly price action. More daily than weekly, since the disconnect btw wkly & 4hr can be quite huge.

Here's something I placed on a demo. (unsure how to hop onto trends)
GBPJPY.

GY had been finding heaps of support @ 154 region.
On daily, loads of rejection tails in that region.
On close of day b4, GY closed just smack around the lows of that region.
(Arrow on Daily chart, on left)

My thoughts were that if GY comes back up to find 154 region as _resistance_, it would be time to hunt for shorts.

4hour did just this. (Arrow 4hr chart on right)
Tested 154, formed an "ok" quality pin. Mainly that it indicated rejection of 154, more than the quality of the pin.
IE: Price was gonna move in the direction of the daily momentum in the 4hour.

T/P @ PPZ as indicated on 4hour chart.

(If only all the trades were this easy. I think this might hv been an A+ probability trade?)

One of the things I"m working on right now is finding ways to hop onto a trend. I realise I'm terrible at that. I think Tia & Joelcf posted something along these lines as well, "oh. it's with the trend. it'll bail me out." I was WRONG. Sloppiness just doesn't work.

Daily (left); 4hr (right)
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One Mind, Any Market
  • #42,282
  • Aug 26, 2009 10:13pm Aug 26, 2009 10:13pm
Hi Guys,

I have been reading through the thread for the past few weeks and thought I would make my first contribution.

Has anyone noticed the pinbar at a swing low on the GBPCHF Daily?

It looks as though it is right off a pivot zone at 1.7250.

I feel that if price breaks above the pin it has a good chance of making it to the 1.7450 area which happens to be spot on with the 23.6 Fib retracement.

Due to the strength of the recent down move and also the 150 EMA I wouldn't expect it to go much higher, but could offer a quick 60 pips.

Any Thoughts?
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  • #42,283
  • Aug 26, 2009 10:16pm Aug 26, 2009 10:16pm
Nice location for this PB. 1.7500 area above holds a weekly PPZ. First trouble area come fast though.

Edit - The Outside Bar on this pair was discussed earlier today. It has not broken yet.
.
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I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #42,284
  • Aug 26, 2009 10:21pm Aug 26, 2009 10:21pm
Retrace to touch a PPZ and big round number, in the direction of the daily and short term trends?

Sounds like a homerun to me. Nice trade

wrt to 'trend bailing you out', I use it in reference to getting sh!tty entries, missing obvious PPZs, etc. If I jump the gun and enter into a pin before it closes, if it is with the overall trend, it usually works out anyways.

Countertrend in the same situation will almost always burn you.

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(obviously, this is easier with hindsight, but the point remains - if you get sloppy countertrend, you get eaten alive. by sharks. really cranky ones.)

Same with missing a PPZ - if I have the weight of the market momentum going in my favour, price is more likely to break through big PPZ/round numbers I neglected to notice. But if you are trying to pick the bottom and make a countertrend herocall, an overhead PPZ can reject you hard, and then kill you when the market keeps going the way it wants to.

Even down to just making stupid mistakes, like the time I wasnt paying attention and ended up with a 10,000 pip stoploss. If that was a countertrend trade...

Obviously, being with the overall trend doesnt give you licence to just blindly do whatever you want, as long as you have the overall direction right. That's a massive sucker play, and one which I am glad I have removed from my repertoire.

As for 'hopping on a trend', my favourite entry in the world is a nice big pin at a pullback/retracement. Preferably with some kind of confluence, a touch off a big PPZ or one of the major fibs is always nice.

I know some people like breakouts for this too, but they have only ever worked as a short term trade for me. Could be because I suck at them though
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #42,285
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:21pm Aug 26, 2009 11:21pm
Quoting james16
good lord. 16 and talking about not being picky enough with his trades.
your tripping me out man.
who was the other young gun the other day that said he was bens age or close to it?
who was that other youngster?
anyone under 18 needs to speak up right now.
it was nuclear62.

anyone else out there???
  • #42,286
  • Edited Aug 27, 2009 12:02am Aug 26, 2009 11:37pm | Edited Aug 27, 2009 12:02am
Quoting raczekfx
an IB break to the long side. I don't pay attention to round numbers.
PPZs is all that matters.
That is probably a part of your method or some thing I guess.

But just see where your trade stalled..major round number...on the pip..and also before:

By the way, most of the time these numbers create the PPZs...I guess?

Ben
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  • #42,287
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:43pm Aug 26, 2009 11:43pm
Quoting StoragePro
I just lost all respect...

You will regret what you said.....
  • #42,288
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:46pm Aug 26, 2009 11:46pm
Quoting StoragePro
Bills Fan.... I wish there was a 'smiley' with a bag over his head.

bills fan..... hahahhahahahahahahaa
  • #42,289
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:49pm Aug 26, 2009 11:49pm
Quoting Cyrus
One of the things I"m working on right now is finding ways to hop onto a trend. I realise I'm terrible at that.
Cyrus,

seriously mate, can you still see price on your charts?? No offense intended, but you may be looking at the market too zoomed in, and may have too many lines/indicators on your chart. Could that be a reason for missing the bigger picture (trend and overall market action)? Why not start fresh with a clear chart? Does wonders sometimes, ask me how do I know...

Concerning hopping onto a trend, Joel described it very well already. See the chart below, I have marked a few confluence points and how to look for trend. You can also draw some fibs and may find the pin sitting right on the 61... Will the trend always resume with such a setup? No. Does James teach us a great way to save our ass before it reverses back on us? You bet.

Take care
RM
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  • #42,290
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:50pm Aug 26, 2009 11:50pm
we will absoluty throttle you guys...

you will see
  • #42,291
  • Aug 27, 2009 12:05am Aug 27, 2009 12:05am
thanks buddy.

jim

Quoting supremeChaos
it was nuclear62.

anyone else out there???
  • #42,292
  • Edited 9:59am Aug 27, 2009 1:46am | Edited 9:59am
Quoting joelcf
Retrace to touch a PPZ and big round number, in the direction of the daily and short term trends?

Sounds like a homerun to me. Nice trade

I agree 100% Joel. I have till now 18 winners and 2 loosers from these trades!!! It works!
This is a trade I have missed cause I wasn't around...but it was on my list and I would being taking it without a doubt if I was around.

It is a clear breakout pattern. Price tested 153.5 four times, broke through, pulled back and produced a BEOB. I don't see any major round number in the area, but I do not use them on breakout trades.

This is a great trade, and has more room to move before it turns...IMO

It happens all the time, and it works!

http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/5...kkppppppop.jpg

By the way, I have decided to let this trade from yesterday a bit more room to move I am amazed, it doesn't stop working! Even though it isn't a clear pattern like the one above.

Here is a current pic, trading is art:


http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/5...kkppppppop.jpg
  • #42,293
  • Aug 27, 2009 2:26am Aug 27, 2009 2:26am
you make it look so easy benji. I always just find someway to over analyse and muddle myself up
  • #42,294
  • Aug 27, 2009 2:31am Aug 27, 2009 2:31am
Quoting StoragePro
Yeah - I am....
That is some what the response I too always get. Are we really that crazy

My 5 min presentation on forex meant that I was talking to some nutties after the presentation and blowing them away.

g
I believe . . .
  • #42,295
  • Aug 27, 2009 2:40am Aug 27, 2009 2:40am
Quoting joelcf
Retrace to touch a PPZ and big round number, in the direction of the daily and short term trends?

Same with missing a PPZ - if I have the weight of the market momentum going in my favour, price is more likely to break through big PPZ/round numbers I neglected to notice. But if you are trying to pick the bottom and make a countertrend herocall, an overhead PPZ can reject you hard, and then kill you when the market keeps going the way it wants to.

Obviously, being with the overall trend doesnt give you licence to just blindly do...
Hi Joel, thank you for putting things into a more concise manner, as well as those pointers.

Thus far, b4 coming across James' material, I always had alot of doubts when trying to get in on a trend. Hence why I said I still hv some doubts about the "when" to get in on a trend. Also why I'm grateful for this community here that helps each other out. Even on FF, the material here has been immensely helpful wrt entry & exit.

Perhaps I'm talking abt the type of trend that EURGBP is in now. The ones which just trot trot trot straight up without a retracement. =)
Sorry for being unclear.

Been putting on some small trades to learn, and nothing quite in a daily/4hr momentum moving in the same direction kind of market. Thus far the trades I've put on are the ones like GBPJPY which was in a range, etc. So when there're PBs in this type of market where momentum looks strong, I still have some uncertainty (read: not that familiar/comfy)



Quoting Rainmaker
seriously mate, can you still see price on your charts?? No offense intended, but you may be looking at the market too zoomed in, and may have too many lines/indicators on your chart. RM
Rainmaker, I hope you're not thinking the charts that I posted are the same as the ones I look @ on my screen. Got about 125 to 150 candles?
I cut it down so I dont take up too much space on the forum.

Appreciate your time and effort taken to reply and do up the chart. =)

Apologies for noob-ness. Been working on this material for 3 wks.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #42,296
  • Aug 27, 2009 2:48am Aug 27, 2009 2:48am
Quoting benji533
I agree 100% Joel. I have till now 18 winners and 2 loosers from these trades!!! It works!
This is a trade I have missed cause I wasn't around...but it was on my list and I would being taking it without a doubt if I was around.

It is a clear breakout pattern. Price tested 153.5 four times, broke through, pulled back and produced a BEOB. I don't see any major round number in the area, but I do not use them on breakout trades.

This is a great trade, and has more room to move before it turns...IMO

It happens all the time, and it works!

http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/5...kkppppppop.jpg...
Hey Benji. I was thinking about the 1 hour actually. Been studying the posts on 1 hr abit here. I saw the BEOB rejecting 154.00 after several tests of 153.50 (a ppz).

Thought that would hv been a good place to enter if I was actually looking @ the 1 hour to enter. =)

Thanks for the confirmation
One Mind, Any Market
  • #42,297
  • Aug 27, 2009 2:50am Aug 27, 2009 2:50am
Quoting supermatt
you make it look so easy benji. I always just find someway to over analyse and muddle myself up
IT IS DEFINITELY ONE OF THE EASIEST THINGS TO DO.

Hey supermatt, it is all in your head!

I am telling you, I did a little research, read smart guys posts, built my method (or their method, lol), and apply it. It is really simple.
Trading is not a complicated thing at all. I really enjoy it.
I do not understand why it is so difficult to so many.

I am doing a very simple thing. Believe me I am the last one to be a genius here..be sure about that.

IMO, the trader is the only one that can disturb himself making killings in this market. I am proving it to myself. When I try to make too much complicated decisions I see charts like a big one mess that can't be figured out.
If you have a method that works, I will tell you to stop trading, and focus a few weeks only on trading psychology. That is a huge subject, and as I have said before, making 50% of you as a trader, if not more.
If you think that trading is complicated, it is because of your own psychology. Trading skills are the opposite of what we learn in the daily lifestyle.

My good, I have read psychology books and learned it way before I even knew what a bar chart looks like (kidding...but seriously, before I learned to trade).

I am maybe the less experienced trader here...2 months...maybe a few weeks more...but I know I see it as it needs to be.


supermatt, shoot me a PM with you email address, I will send you a few good things.

Hope it will help you. it made all the difference for me

Ben
  • #42,298
  • Aug 27, 2009 2:50am Aug 27, 2009 2:50am
Quoting PippingMama
Hello Ghous,

Just checking on the chart you presented on this EJ trade. It seems you use 135.20 area as your first Take profit point. Why you don't use 135 round number? I think 135 is round number is hard to penetrade than the 135.20.

Can you share how you justify your first TP point?

Thanks!


PippingM
Hi PM,

135 was on my mind, in fact this probably was the single most important factor that kept it from breaking hard straight away to the upside "jarroo style"

the regions marked on my chart were those that I spotted at the first glimpse without looking to the extreme right at price levels,

However I was intent on letting the trade run until it could break the left eye of the BUOB/PB (the ppz which the buob was off of was another factor that mad me anticipate this) which it obviously didn't and more importantly the 4H was able to close above the 135 with serious authority. That's when I began anticipating that price should now hit at least the first marked region, as it did I moved my SL, took some off, set the Tp at the second yellow ppz and went off for a nap,

Simple stuff when you start believing in yourself

g
Attached Image
I believe . . .
  • #42,299
  • Aug 27, 2009 2:54am Aug 27, 2009 2:54am
Quoting Cyrus
Hey Benji. I was thinking about the 1 hour actually. Been studying the posts on 1 hr abit here. I saw the BEOB rejecting 154.00 after several tests of 153.50 (a ppz).

Thought that would hv been a good place to enter if I was actually looking @ the 1 hour to enter. =)

Thanks for the confirmation
You are welcome

I trade this pattern a lot. It works.
Mike is the master of it though

Basically, after I have my pattern drawn, it is all a matter of patience. I wait for a breakout, pullback to the trend line, and then a PA confirmation on the line.
Ummm....Usually I try to get a better entry on even a lower TF. That way my R:R will be better, and also sometimes it is the only place I find PA.

Ben
  • #42,300
  • Aug 27, 2009 2:58am Aug 27, 2009 2:58am
Quoting benji533
IT IS DEFINITELY ONE OF THE EASIEST THINGS TO DO.

Hey supermatt, it is all in your head!

I am telling you, I did a little research, read smart guys posts, built my method (or their method, lol), and apply it. It is really simple.
Trading is not a complicated thing at all. I really enjoy it.
I do not understand why it is so difficult to so many.

I am doing a very simple thing. Believe me I am the last one to be a genius here..be sure about that.

IMO, the trader is the only one that can disturb himself making killings in this market....
Maybe we can derive something for this...

Maybe it's the kids that can trade better than adults, nice clean minds, free from excessive "ifs" and "buts" and "so whats" and "what ifs"...

The simplicity of trading is so obvious...it in fact is what gets a lot...a lot of wannabe traders...

Remember Jim's son, and each and every outside bar that he took on Eur/Gbp this year...I sure could have never done that...I mean I am not talking from my death bed but I am getting old...old enough to wave teenage life good bye and honestly the way I saw trading back at 17 is not how I look at it today....I sometimes try and struggle to keep my head as clear as it was back then. ...
I believe . . .
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