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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,001
  • Aug 26, 2009 6:34am Aug 26, 2009 6:34am
My .02 for what it's worth.

Quoting Snr Dinero
Hi all, I have a question regarding entries. I am au fait with technical analysis, can draw a trendline and understand price action but given the reliability of the AH strategy is it just as good to open a trade when price touches a trendline (without evidence of it necessarily holding), fib level or s and r level?
No - it's usually best to wait for a confirmation. The AH strategy isn't infallible, espcially in ranging markets - it does help though

Quoting Snr Dinero
If you're with the main trend you should be ok, right? Or should one wait for candlestick patterns confirming the resumption of the trend?
Yes - regarding candlesticks it's up to personal choice Wayne does not use them to my knowledge.

Quoting Snr Dinero
Also some people have been discussing closing trades early for profit rather than letting them run. This seems to be against the instructions of the system or is this now a valid part of the method? (I have read the thread through but can't find anything about it).
Given the different market conditions setting a general profit target is something that has been implemented by Wayne to make the most of a run. When price reaches that given point one then has to reanalyse and decide if the move has expired or if there is still room for more profit. Pulling up the stops to protect acquired profit is up to personal choice ( I do).

Quoting Snr Dinero
One more thing. Is it now acceptable to enter trades against the trend provided strong TA exists to suggest there is a sufficient move to warrant it?
I don't see why not if you feel the TA warrants it as we are in a ranging market - Wayne has taken more than one countertrend trade as well to try to maximise - but he states it quite clearly that when he does it's a speculative one. Again - it's up to your comfort zone.

Quoting Snr Dinero
Thanks
Welcome - hope I was able to help.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,002
  • Aug 26, 2009 6:40am Aug 26, 2009 6:40am
Quoting coscorp
hope I was able to help.
Admirably.

So to sum up... Wait for confirmation before entering, pull your stops up tighter than 100 pip trailing and use a target if it looks like the move may not go as far as a good trend should and finally, ok to enter countertrend but watch your ass!

Thanks very much for clearing that lot up.
  • #9,003
  • Aug 26, 2009 6:41am Aug 26, 2009 6:41am
Quoting coscorp
My .02 for what it's worth.



No - it's usually best to wait for a confirmation. The AH strategy isn't infallible, espcially in ranging markets - it does help though

Yes - regarding candlesticks it's up to personal choice Wayne does not use them to my knowledge.



Given the different market conditions setting a general profit target is something that has been implemented by Wayne to make the most of a run. When price reaches that given point one then has to reanalyse and decide if the move has expired or if there is still room for more...

Good response, agree with all the points mentioned
  • #9,004
  • Aug 26, 2009 6:45am Aug 26, 2009 6:45am
My price action alert did not trigger for some reason...so missed a short opportunity @ 1.4350.

It is testing the S level at 1.4265 area now on 4H...core durable goods news release in 45 mins, price could break down, though could be whipsaws in both directions so watching carefully.

What is people's sense on what will happen to price if the figure is worse than expected - a rise in USD due to risk aversion?
  • #9,005
  • Aug 26, 2009 6:47am Aug 26, 2009 6:47am
Ok, so all that put together I am short from just below 1.43 with a view to taking profit somewhere near the 50% fib of the last move up... just above 1.42 but it could go lower (don't want to be greedy). A bounce from 1.41 would signal a nice long.

Am I viewing that about right?
  • #9,006
  • Aug 26, 2009 6:51am Aug 26, 2009 6:51am
Quoting SimonK
Just wanted to say thank you to Wayne for providing an excellent mentoring and signal service. And a great sense of humour too!

Really glad to see James16 posting on the forums again too
Hi Simon

Thanks for your kind words.

.
  • #9,007
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:01am Aug 26, 2009 7:01am
Quoting coscorp
My .02 for what it's worth.



No - it's usually best to wait for a confirmation. The AH strategy isn't infallible, espcially in ranging markets - it does help though

Yes - regarding candlesticks it's up to personal choice Wayne does not use them to my knowledge.



Given the different market conditions setting a general profit target is something that has been implemented by Wayne to make the most of a run. When price reaches that given point one then has to reanalyse and decide if the move has expired or if there is still room for more...
Hi John

Excellent answers. I like the fact that there are members of the group are coming back here and helping the newer traders out.

Hopefully, we can help prevent them from making stupid trades and teach them how to trade properly..... and how to be profitable.


.
  • #9,008
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:03am Aug 26, 2009 7:03am
Quoting Snr Dinero
Admirably.

So to sum up... Wait for confirmation before entering, pull your stops up tighter than 100 pip trailing and use a target if it looks like the move may not go as far as a good trend should and finally, ok to enter countertrend but watch your ass!

Thanks very much for clearing that lot up.

Hi Snr Dinero

A good summary

.
  • #9,009
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:50am Aug 26, 2009 7:50am
Quoting Money-RX
You spelled hemorrhoids wrong
Actually, he didn't.
  • #9,010
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:08am Aug 26, 2009 8:08am
Hi SeekingLight,

I apologise for not replying to this earlier, I hadn't seen it.

Quoting SeekingLight
Hi jacko,
I really do find it interesting how you broke down a trend trading principle into very KISS-ified steps and seem to consistently apply it to the market that surrounds us.
Thank you. (I have also repeated that process for Range trading. When the market started to Range earlier this year we quickly recognised it and started Range trading off Support and Resistance Lines with profitable results)

Quote
I for one would be interested in any trade examples / material you feel fit to share after it has lost it's "value" for those that already paid for it and received their benefit in terms of actual trade income.

From what I understand from reading this, is that you are asking that I post some of the "back issues" of my private blog here for you. The answer to that is No. It is private correspondence between the members of the group and me.

Quote
Please, if you did at any point start this thread for actually sharing experience, do continue to do so and let us (now-) "outsiders" passively participate in the occassional trade post-mortem analysis.

I have shown six months of "live" and "real time" trading with no edits to the posts so I have shared (and continue to share) my trading experience
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1425736&postcount=3

I opened it all up and showed how my trading took me to over $500,000 in six months
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1425736&postcount=3

I then outlined my strategy for Trend Trading here on the first page for everyone to see
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27286

and http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1425750&postcount=4

I also outlined my Anti -Hedge strategy which I formulated which will get any losses back in a very high percentage of times
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1425762&postcount=5

Finally, I apologise that I don't post here as much as you would like anymore.

However, I am busy with my own trading which is quite large. Also I am busy with mentoring two small groups of serious and committed traders all of whom are serious about trading as a full time business or adding a second income to their main career.
However, I still post here, and more importantly, some members of the group come here and answer the newer traders questions using what the knowledge and experience they have learned.
  • #9,011
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:05am Aug 26, 2009 9:05am
That's really odd when that happens, dollar positive news comes out and the price goes the other way! I'm guessing it's the big players double bluffing the retail traders and trading the opposite of the fundamentals.

I'm still short and stop loss at +30 pips. Anybody disagree?
  • #9,012
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:14am Aug 26, 2009 9:14am
Quoting Snr Dinero
That's really odd when that happens, dollar positive news comes out and the price goes the other way! I'm guessing it's the big players double bluffing the retail traders and trading the opposite of the fundamentals.

I'm still short and stop loss at +30 pips. Anybody disagree?
Hi Snr Dinero,

Buy the rumour...Sell the fact.

We have been short since 1.4340.... > 100+ pips
  • #9,013
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:20am Aug 26, 2009 9:20am
Yes, I was a little slow getting started today (still reading the thread) but I'm in just below 1.43 so I'm happy to be making some pips today.

Thanks for your time in creating this thread, since I started trading this method I have had a few nice realisation moments.

I am looking forward to a return to a clearer trend direction whenever that occurs. Would you say a break in one direction or the other is overdue about now? (my guess is upwards but I'm easy either way)
  • #9,014
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:48am Aug 26, 2009 9:48am
Quoting Snr Dinero
Yes, I was a little slow getting started today (still reading the thread) but I'm in just below 1.43 so I'm happy to be making some pips today.

Thanks for your time in creating this thread, since I started trading this method I have had a few nice realisation moments.

I am looking forward to a return to a clearer trend direction whenever that occurs. Would you say a break in one direction or the other is overdue about now? (my guess is upwards but I'm easy either way)
Hi Snr Dinero

Thank you for your kind words. I am quite proud of this little thread.

As to the return to a clearer trend direction, the fact is that we are traders. When a market changes from Trending to Ranging, we have to be quick to recognise it, and to then capitalise on it by trading it, using the Ranging strategies.
Those strategies are quite simple...Buy on the Support and Sell at the Resistance. (Nothing different from what all the good books tell you to do.)

Also always look at the 50% Fib for the initial target, as it will mostly rebound. The latest 50% Fib on the 4H chart was 1.4048 (on Aug 17) to 1.4375 (on Aug 21) = 1.4211.
Now go and have a look at where the market just bounced.... 1.4213

.
  • #9,015
  • Aug 26, 2009 10:02am Aug 26, 2009 10:02am
Quoting jacko
Also always look at the 50% Fib for the initial target, as it will mostly rebound. The latest 50% Fib on the 4H chart was 1.4048 (on Aug 17) to 1.4375 (on Aug 21) = 1.4211.
Now go and have a look at where the market just bounced.... 1.4213

.
I had that drawn on my chart but I saw it on the daily.

Thanks for your help, I think with a bit of practise I should be fine.
  • #9,016
  • Aug 26, 2009 10:24am Aug 26, 2009 10:24am
Quoting Snr Dinero
I had that drawn on my chart but I saw it on the daily.

Thanks for your help, I think with a bit of practise I should be fine.
Hi Snr Dinero,

Hmmmm.....Trading off the Daily charts means that you must be using very large Stop Losses.
We moved to the shorter 4H time frames when the volatility exploded a year ago so that we minimised the risk of having our Stop Losses being blown away by the volatility.
However, if you are happy to trade off the Daily, then that is fine...It is just different to what we are doing
  • #9,017
  • Aug 26, 2009 10:37am Aug 26, 2009 10:37am
Quoting jacko
Hi Snr Dinero,

Hmmmm.....Trading off the Daily charts means that you must be using very large Stop Losses.
We moved to the shorter 4H time frames when the volatility exploded a year ago so that we minimised the risk of having our Stop Losses being blown away by the volatility.
However, if you are happy to trade off the Daily, then that is fine...It is just different to what we are doing
No, I am trading from the 4 hour chart but I look at the daily and weekly charts to check the trend, draw trendlines and look for patterns. I am just getting started.
  • #9,018
  • Aug 26, 2009 10:55am Aug 26, 2009 10:55am
Quoting Snr Dinero
No, I am trading from the 4 hour chart but I look at the daily and weekly charts to check the trend, draw trendlines and look for patterns. I am just getting started.
Oh...OK..

Did you close your trades on the 50% fib at 1.4211 ??
We all closed out at 1.4210 for 130 pips.
Will go short again later
  • #9,019
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:10am Aug 26, 2009 11:10am
Excellent trade Jacko! Congrats.

Missed out on my re-rentry target at 1.4350 after I closed out my initial short this morning grrrr.

Oh well, it's in the past so just a case of waiting for the pull back now to go short again.
  • #9,020
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:27am Aug 26, 2009 11:27am
Quoting jacko
Oh...OK..

Did you close your trades on the 50% fib at 1.4211 ??
We all closed out at 1.4210 for 130 pips.
Will go short again later
I have been asked by a couple of traders in the group to post an unedited copy of my blog today to demonstrate the trade. Below is part of todays blog (All times are NY time or EST)

Also the times are the times of me updating the blog. The SMSes are sent before, and as, each trade is opened and closed. The SMS messages are the same as the messages below.

Quote
Edit 8.05am NY time Market is at 1.4270. I am continuing to let my short trade at 1.4340 play itself out. I will probably look to take a profit at the 50% Fib area of around 1.4200 (or just above it at 1.4210).

Quote
Edit 9.35am NY time. The market is dropping nicely. I WILL be closing my Short trade from 1.4340 at 1.4210. We can get back in again later with another short when the market bounces back up.


Quote
Edit 11.27am NY time I have just closed all my Shorts from 1.4340 at 1.4210 for a 130 pip profit



All the reasons for taking the short at1.4340 and the initial target of the 50% Fib was outlined earlier in the blog
.
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