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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

The System (Irony included) 1,175 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #3,961
  • Aug 24, 2009 8:45am Aug 24, 2009 8:45am
just exited at BE.. keeping my head above the water.. I don't like how price diped down broke through minor fcr.. keeping greed factor in check and refuse to give a dime away.. I'll wait for better opportunity.

I will short based on the marked FCR.. that would be a more logical breakout..


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  • #3,962
  • Aug 24, 2009 8:54am Aug 24, 2009 8:54am
FX .. how much do you aim to accumulate daily? 50 pips?
  • #3,963
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:02am Aug 24, 2009 9:02am
Chop Monster .... seems very ripe .... I believe we coming to the end of the summer period this week hopefully.
  • #3,964
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:09am Aug 24, 2009 9:09am
Quoting moneda
Good morning,

Something to think about..... when the fcr is that close to the LL of a bracket... maybe is better to wait for the breakout short instead. We will see

Moneda spot on my friend, exactly my point.. it just makes more sense since the two are that close.

DFX.. my minimu target is 50pip.. I get what I can but i shoot to avg that number for the month, but i don't get to crazy abou it.. its a realistic goal based on how we trade in here..
  • #3,965
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:11am Aug 24, 2009 9:11am
nice one on the gbp
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it's a huge gap tony, a huge gap.
  • #3,966
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:28am Aug 24, 2009 9:28am
It seems thats it for the day ... how much u made today FX?
  • #3,967
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:54am Aug 24, 2009 9:54am
should i take this one?
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it's a huge gap tony, a huge gap.
  • #3,968
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:59am Aug 24, 2009 9:59am
yep I am calling it the day.. I had four trades made 5pips shy of my daily min target.. but more importantly got involved with two fakeouts and handled them well..(oh.. and surviving that idiot earlier..lol.. thank god he went away).. if you want to measure your success for the day based it on that and not your daily win/loss..
expectancy, expectancy and expectancy..
the whole up and down movment of the market for the day was 78 pips.. and I think we all managed to make money in such price range.. be proud of yourself and have cold one..lol .
I saw a lot of faces.. I hope you took away a lot from today..
I be trading sharp 2hrs before London open.. see you all tomorrow.
  • #3,969
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:59am Aug 24, 2009 9:59am
Gev ... be careful right now as we heading into the London close ... after 5 pm London (which is an hour from now) liquidity I believe tends to dry up.
  • #3,970
  • Aug 24, 2009 10:00am Aug 24, 2009 10:00am
Quoting fxachilies
yep I am calling it the day.. I had four trades made 5pips shy of my daily min target.. but more importantly got involved with two fakeouts and handled them well..(oh.. and surviving that idiot earlier..lol.. thank god he went away).. if you want to measure your success for the day based it on that and not your daily win/loss..
expectancy, expectancy and expectancy..
the whole up and down movment of the market for the day was 78 pips.. and I think we all managed to make money in such price range.. be proud of yourself and have cold one..lol .
I...

FX I was merely a spectator today ... will hopefully be live with you guys tomorrow.
  • #3,971
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:55pm Aug 24, 2009 2:55pm
Hi

Here are my trades from today, four of them with two winners and two losers. I made one error cutting the second trade too quickly.

Any comments welome.

Thanks for the updates and live commentary fx.
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Survive and Preserve
  • #3,972
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:38pm Aug 24, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting PaulLangham
Hi

Here are my trades from today, four of them with two winners and two losers. I made one error cutting the second trade too quickly.

Any comments welome.

Thanks for the updates and live commentary fx.
nice job with your trades and well use of expectancy..
in regards to second trade.. yes there was not much reason for you to close it that early.. but more importantly your entery should have been a lot earlier, perhaps when the first FCR was broken.. eventhough it was a fakeout and a loser or BE at best (i lost 12 pips myself on that).. but what if price would have countinued for 50 pips?. you would have missed out big time. just my humble opinion..

overall great job
  • #3,973
  • Aug 24, 2009 5:31pm Aug 24, 2009 5:31pm
ok guys.. continuation signal..
why i do not take those signals unless in becomes bracket breakout?
Simply I do not need to.. bcz i won't exit a ride just on one retrace.. it avoids me from quick in and out. quick profit taking in and outs will puts you at higher risk of fakeout ratio.

example: (watch the chart at the same time)
If i am on a given trade and it goes in my favor for lets say 40 pips then it starts to retrace.. now at this time based on what i have been preaching as to "give your trade room to breath and don't be decived to early and led price to show its reall hand".. so I won't exit on first retrace and will ride it if it breaks the LL/HH on the first attempt.. but if it does not break through on the first attempt, now I go to may #1 plan and play that.. then if it keeps showing failures and price stall shapes up then obviously price is moving side ways and at this point it qualifies as a bracket and there is no reason for me to be in that trade.. remember this thing called "expectancy" = price must keep going your way in a reasonable timetable.. speed and rhythm. it all comes back to core of what we do and thats expectancy.
so, I exit.. and now that price is ranging and sooner or later it will breakout, could be countinuation or reversal.. who cares.. whatever it is it counts as a new fresh swing..
live example display from monday.. refer to chart..

I expect everyone to review this post before trading tuesday.. maybe even print it and keep it next to you..

I hope it helps.. see you all before london open..

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  • #3,974
  • Edited 7:49pm Aug 24, 2009 7:29pm | Edited 7:49pm
Hi FxAchilles,

I understand that you are trying to help everyone here... and as I have said - it is much appreciated. But for the sake of consistency I wanted to question the live calls you were making, as compared to the "live" chart you posted above.

I believe you posted a long call (post 3893 or something) where you are now saying (your last post) that you were holding your short position through that period, to bank pips at a later point in time. (I know you made money on the trade, so not questioning that... just the actual action you took based on PA) See two attached charts:

Just wanted to know if you actually went long there. If i am wrong, i apologise. Im not questioning your skill... that is obvious... just trying to learn from, and emulate another successful trader.

Thanks.
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"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #3,975
  • Aug 25, 2009 12:17am Aug 25, 2009 12:17am
Quoting fxachilies
nice job with your trades and well use of expectancy..
in regards to second trade.. yes there was not much reason for you to close it that early.. but more importantly your entery should have been a lot earlier, perhaps when the first FCR was broken.. eventhough it was a fakeout and a loser or BE at best (i lost 12 pips myself on that).. but what if price would have countinued for 50 pips?. you would have missed out big time. just my humble opinion..

overall great job

Hi fx

Ok thanks for that - yep second trade was not good, but we learn and move on .
Survive and Preserve
  • #3,976
  • Aug 25, 2009 12:19am Aug 25, 2009 12:19am
Quoting fxachilies
ok guys.. continuation signal..
why i do not take those signals unless in becomes bracket breakout?
Simply I do not need to.. bcz i won't exit a ride just on one retrace.. it avoids me from quick in and out. quick profit taking in and outs will puts you at higher risk of fakeout ratio.

example: (watch the chart at the same time)
If i am on a given trade and it goes in my favor for lets say 40 pips then it starts to retrace.. now at this time based on what i have been preaching as to "give your trade room to breath and don't be [b]decived...
OK this is great as it clears up some misunderstanding I had about the way you were playing continuations. Thanks.
Survive and Preserve
  • #3,977
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:17am Aug 25, 2009 1:17am
Quoting fxachilies
ok guys.. continuation signal..
why i do not take those signals unless in becomes bracket breakout?
Simply I do not need to.. bcz i won't exit a ride just on one retrace.. it avoids me from quick in and out. quick profit taking in and outs will puts you at higher risk of fakeout ratio.

example: (watch the chart at the same time)
If i am on a given trade and it goes in my favor for lets say 40 pips then it starts to retrace.. now at this time based on what i have been preaching as to "give your trade room to breath and don't be [b]decived...
Hi Ari,
your absolutly right.. I did take my 35pips profit in that case and I think I mentiond in one of my posts as to why i did that (due to my large lot size).. and once i do take profit and exit the ride then I bear with the idea that i will not renter based on counitnuation signal rather wait for the price to fall into some range time and traderd of BK.. the correct use of expectancy is what i show in my last post..
and yes i did take the long trade aswell and lost 12pips on that..
  • #3,978
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:28am Aug 25, 2009 1:28am
live example of trouble signal.. and the importantce of getting on the ride on the first opportunity with FCR.. chart explains..


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  • #3,979
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:42am Aug 25, 2009 1:42am
I traded this but I didnt want to set a target profit. Suffice to say ended the trade in a loss. The reverse wasnt gentle.

Quoting fxachilies
live example of trouble signal.. and the importantce of getting on the ride on the first opportunity with FCR.. chart explains..


http://cloud.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif
Survive and Preserve
  • #3,980
  • Aug 25, 2009 1:51am Aug 25, 2009 1:51am
Quoting fxachilies
Hi Ari,
your absolutly right.. I did take my 35pips profit in that case and I think I mentiond in one of my posts as to why i did that (due to my large lot size).. and once i do take profit and exit the ride then I bear with the idea that i will not renter based on counitnuation signal rather wait for the price to fall into some range time and traderd of BK.. the correct use of expectancy is what i show in my last post..
and yes i did take the long trade aswell and lost 12pips on that..

Thanks for clarification. Its obvious now you were just illustrating the way you handle the markets after a mover... ie. waiting for a range to develop to reenter.

Thanks again.

MM

PS: WHIPPY MARKETS RIGHT HERE!!!
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
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