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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #41,881
  • Aug 24, 2009 7:30am Aug 24, 2009 7:30am
Quoting StoragePro

Mike would also be looking for an eclipse on Jupiter... Confluence.
And a Yankees win...

Only then will he pull the trigger.
  • #41,882
  • Aug 24, 2009 8:07am Aug 24, 2009 8:07am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Boca

I definitely agree this is a very important level/ppz. I am not particularly biased to a long or a short as I can see reasons for both to occur.

Best
Mike
Hi Mike,

Thanks for your repsonse and this brings me to an important question regarding trading in the direction of the longer term trend.

I'm throwing this out there for discussion, but what are your thoughts regarding trading against the major trend? I know there are many different ways to determine what that trend direction is and whether a market is range bound or not and the whole thing can get a bit subjective, but do you consider the longer term trend when making a trading decision?

Thanks
Boca
  • #41,883
  • Aug 24, 2009 8:31am Aug 24, 2009 8:31am
I think PB are by their nature against the trend... on the higher time frames... but they indicate a trend reversal on the lower time frames... where they occur indicate to us whether the trend reversal will continue right up through the time frames...
then there are buob and beob which can indicate a strong continuation of a trend or a break against it.. again for me it is "location, location, location"!!
The winner of the rat race is still a rat.
  • #41,884
  • Aug 24, 2009 8:52am Aug 24, 2009 8:52am
Quoting Bocajunior
I'm throwing this out there for discussion, but what are your thoughts regarding trading against the major trend?
I always look at the overall trend before I go into a trade. It is suicide not to. You gotta know the environment you are trading into before you do it.

Generally, I want to get into a longer term position, usually based on fundamentals, but sometimes just on a weekly/monthly chart based outlook - and I am using PA for a riskless/low risk entry. So trend direction is everything for me.

Even when I am trading a 4H chart, I like to be in the direction of the trend. If not, I like to have a damn good reason to take the trade.

However, and this may be a bad habit I have picked up here , I dont mind a bit of a scalp on a quick countertrend move. But you have to realise that you are trading against the trend, and act accordingly. Its a short term trade, it could go against you at any time (and go against you HARD) and you really need to manage your risk well.

I use the river analogy.

If you want to go downstream, with the current (ie, trend), you can eat a big meal, get half drunk, screw around in the water, not really know how to swim and you will probably still get to where you are going anyways. it isnt really advisable, but the current will override most of your mistakes and take you there, no matter how much you try to screw up.

But act stupid when you are swimming against the current or let your guard down, and your ass is probably gonna drown.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #41,885
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:03am Aug 24, 2009 9:03am
Nice PB on the last 4hrs second rejection of area... waiting for it to move down on next bar for confirmation...
The winner of the rat race is still a rat.
  • #41,886
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:12am Aug 24, 2009 9:12am
Quoting joelcf
I always look at the overall trend before I go into a trade. It is suicide not to. You gotta know the environment you are trading into before you do it.
i don't think we talk about this enough. I will take counter rend trades, but I am pickier about entries than usual and conservative on targets. On the whole, I do not trail a stop, but in a few cases I will.

Quote
However, and this may be a bad habit I have picked up here , I dont mind a bit of a scalp on a quick countertrend move. But you have to realise that you are trading against the trend, and act accordingly. Its a short term trade, it could go against you at any time (and go against you HARD) and you really need to manage your risk well.

A solid bar, at a PPZ, at a round number, with clear divergence on the oscillator of your choice. narrows your choices down, but you'll win more often. Set targets in CT based on PA.

Shoot - the most successful do these things with the trend... see a pattern?

Quote
But act stupid when you are swimming against the current or let your guard down, and your ass is probably gonna drown.

Your ass will drown if have not proven your ability to float with the current first.

As usual Joel, I like reading your thought stream.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #41,887
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:32am Aug 24, 2009 9:32am
I wanted to add something to the discussion on trend/counter trend trading based on my experience.

When I first started demo trading it wasn't a particularly useful thought to me. Why? Because I had misinterpreted the principles. I was simply lazier with my entries on trend trades because I thought the trend would bail me out if I was wrong. I can't tell you how many times price reversed, took out my stop, then continued floating downstream leaving me scratching my head. "The trend was supposed to save me" I thought.

These days I pay attention to trend, but I must admit I pay more attention, when considering entries, to horizontal SR levels and PPZs, especially in regards to where the price action bar tells me my stop loss is going to be.

The stop loss is the point at which I will admit I was wrong and get out of the trade. Plenty of trend trades can take out this stop loss and then move on down.

The bottom line is that there is no substitute for solid PA at key PPZ levels with confluence. Don't make the mistake I did and use the excuse that it's with trend to take lazy trades. Price moves in waves and your stops are vulnerable even in a strong trend.

Where I absolutely pay attention to trend is in target setting. The key decisions for me are where I am going to break even and where I am looking to take profit. With on trend trades there is scope for letting it run and I manage my trade accordingly. Trying to let a counter trend trade run is incredibly risky. You'd better be dead sure you've caught the bottom and are trading the pinbar of the year.

I'm not disagreeing with anyone here, in fact I was nodding reading SP and Joel's posts. I'm just throwing in my view as someone who has been burnt by trend trading in the past. But then there was a time when I was (to quote SP) an idiot with an account and an internet connection and I thought that if price was trending I could just slam on an on-trend trend not caring about my entry point and that it would make me rich. Took me a while to learn that lesson.

Edited to add: I should also say, that when this market does start trending properly again, there is simple easy money to be made from price action at pullbacks to trendlines and 50% retraces. Jacko style. That's the kind of big picture trend trading I like.
  • #41,888
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:35am Aug 24, 2009 9:35am
geez!!...monday rush hour or whatta!!. Hopes she keeps pushing upwards with no PA... FOREVER...Lol
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Respect a man, and he will do all the more.
  • #41,889
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:39am Aug 24, 2009 9:39am
But isn't a PB against the trend on the time frame you are viewing it on ??

It may be with the trend on a higher tf but not on the tf you are viewing it on...
The winner of the rat race is still a rat.
  • #41,890
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:47am Aug 24, 2009 9:47am
Quoting TiaForex
And a Yankees win...

Only then will he pull the trigger.


Don't upset SP again , next he has to worry about Jim's Rangers taking the wild card and his prediction that the yanks wouldn't make the Playoffs might come back to really haunt him
  • #41,891
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:49am Aug 24, 2009 9:49am
Quoting Bocajunior
Hi Mike,

Thanks for your repsonse and this brings me to an important question regarding trading in the direction of the longer term trend.

I'm throwing this out there for discussion, but what are your thoughts regarding trading against the major trend? I know there are many different ways to determine what that trend direction is and whether a market is range bound or not and the whole thing can get a bit subjective, but do you consider the longer term trend when making a trading decision?

Thanks
Boca
Hey Boca,

The trend really isn't all that important to me in terms of taking a trade. What happens when you trade with a strong trend for me means that I might be more likely to give it room to run. But it still comes down to what is around the actual trade itself. So it is difficult for me to make a blanketed statement one way or the other. Some of my best long terms trades come from extreme counter trend price action. Essentially yes picking a top or bottom. But if you get a beautiful pullback with strong confluence with the prevailing trend, it usually helps me trade through the first trouble areas with confidence. Again situational, but hopefully this gives you some idea.

Hope it helps
Mike
  • #41,892
  • Aug 24, 2009 10:01am Aug 24, 2009 10:01am
Hi Guys,

Noticed a USDCAD pinbar last friday towards the close of the week.

Somehow, didn't quite sit right with me, and I spent the weekend wondering why.

Here's my 2pips... if the seniors and more experienced folk here could chip in their valued opinions, I'd appreciate it tremendously.

Anyways, here are the main points
(1) 4hour PB looked relatively small compared to the size of the candles during the down move.
(2) The Daily charts had a 2bar Pin + BE Outside Pinbar.
I like using stochastics, and those were overbought as well.
IMHO, the Daily formation was a huge ass announcement of USDCAD saying, "hey guys, heading down"

Got my ass kicked by USDCAD trying to short on a 4hour pinbar, after there was a weekly PB recently as mike (resident elmer fudd ) graciously pointed out to me.
So am still figuring out the nuts and bolts of using the daily and even weekly timeframes for trading 4hour.

Appreciate comments/feedback as always =)

Cy

Daily on the left, 4hour on the right
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One Mind, Any Market
  • #41,893
  • Aug 24, 2009 10:06am Aug 24, 2009 10:06am
Hey Cyrus

My take would be as follow. Firstly and mostly if one uses a buffer(which I always do), a buy order above the pin would have never got triggered. Next you are right this bar doesn't sit right for the following reasons for me. Small bar compared to the large strong down move we are in(falling knife). The poor close. It closed very low barely inside the other bar(lack of conviction). And lastly not really any strong confluence supporting a trade like that. You can see where it bounced off, the low from 2 bars prior). These are the types of trades I think end up smoking most of the traders on the 4hr before they learn the higher timeframes(in general this is what I tend to notice the most in doing this).

Just my take
Mike

Quoting Cyrus
Hi Guys,

Noticed a USDCAD pinbar last friday towards the close of the week.

Somehow, didn't quite sit right with me, and I spent the weekend wondering why.

Here's my 2pips... if the seniors and more experienced folk here could chip in their valued opinions, I'd appreciate it tremendously.

Anyways, here are the main points
(1) 4hour PB looked relatively small compared to the size of the candles during the down move.
(2) The Daily charts had a 2bar Pin + BE Outside Pinbar.
I like using stochastics, and those were overbought as well.
IMHO,...
  • #41,894
  • Aug 24, 2009 10:27am Aug 24, 2009 10:27am
Hi. I want to know how many different price action figures there are?
I know that there are Double bar low with a higher close and other basic figures.
If anyone of you have time could you please tell me what kind of a figures u know? Thanks.
  • #41,895
  • Aug 24, 2009 10:29am Aug 24, 2009 10:29am
Quoting Trader100
Hi. I want to know how many different price action figures there are?
I know that there are Double bar low with a higher close and other basic figures.
If anyone of you have time could you please tell me what kind of a figures u know? Thanks.
Hey T,

The basic patterns are

Pinbars
Outside Bars(Buobs, Beobs)
DBHLC, DBLHC
Inside Bars(I4bs)
TBH/TBL (two bar high, two bar low).
BEBs(bearish Bars)
BuB(Bullish Bars)

A few variation to these as people use. Example combining bars to form the above patterns.

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #41,896
  • Aug 24, 2009 10:31am Aug 24, 2009 10:31am
That helps a lot but I don't know how many of those look like
  • #41,897
  • Aug 24, 2009 10:32am Aug 24, 2009 10:32am
Hello every one.

How about that.

A HSH on daily and BEOB (forming) in 4H.

Ahh and also would be an IB breakout.
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  • #41,898
  • Aug 24, 2009 10:33am Aug 24, 2009 10:33am
Quoting Trader100
That helps a lot but I don't know how many of those look like
Hey there bro,

I don't mean to be rude, but if you start reading the thread from the beginning you will pick up not only what the bars look like but more importantly the location issues that make the setups themselves profitable

Godspeed,
Jig
  • #41,899
  • Aug 24, 2009 10:33am Aug 24, 2009 10:33am
Quoting Trader100
That helps a lot but I don't know how many of those look like
Hey T,

Start with post 1 and work your way through very slowly. Those patterns are explained by James near the beginning and then throughout the thread. Also check out this post that has a summary of some of the basics of these patterns, it is a very good over view of the basics.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250

But most of the patterns are explained by the big man himself on the first hundred or so pages, then we get a bit more in how to apply them as you work through. As you go through it ask questions if you have any

Best
Mike
  • #41,900
  • Aug 24, 2009 10:35am Aug 24, 2009 10:35am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey T,

Start with post 1 and work your way through very slowly....
Thank you Mike
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