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TheChalleger's Journal - My Trading Journey

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Sep 15, 2012 1:19am Aug 23, 2009 8:48am | Edited Sep 15, 2012 1:19am
How far am I from success?

How far am I from success? For one year, I have been asking myself this question almost every day. Sometimes, success seems so close. Other time, it is so far away that I cannot see a tiny bit of it. Since my last company, which is a trading firm, has asked me to leave, I have determined to establish my own private trading life. For several months, I have tried to build trading algorithm. With failure after failure, I gave up algo trading and turned to manual trading. Afterwards, I started with a number of indicators, simple and complex, and without success.

One of the most unbearable thing was the emotional impact in the process. At some point, it seemed that I had found a powerful way to make profit, and at some other point, I found the methods produced a lot of drawdown. It was full of roller coaster feeling, driving me crazy. And I kept asking how far I am from success. At many points, I asked myself "what is the point", "am I an unrealistic dreamer". I questioned myself again and again.

I moved from one system to another and finally came to a conclusion that indicators are lagged. Three months ago, I turned to use price action and support/resistance trading methods. I am amazed so many trading opportunity available a day with so good RR and W/L ratio. Nevertheless, the trades I've observed are always winner, the trades I've taken are always loser.

I have been staying at home for alomst 1 year. My mother starts to worry about me. I feel sorry for her, but my goal hasn't been achieved. I am not really young, and my future is uncertain. I feel alone. At times, my heart is filled with uncertainty, even though my determination is still strong. I question again how far I am from success.

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This journal would be more like a dairy than a technical skills or numerical records of my trading experience. I would also present trading records in this journal later. I hope it is not a problem.
  • #2
  • Edited 10:08am Aug 23, 2009 10:06am | Edited 10:08am
A wise trader once said, the money he makes is not his primary focus, everyday he seeks to trade the best he can.

I think it might be helpful if you documented your trades with pictures and notes. Use the program ‘snagit.com’ to take a screen shot of your charts and put your analysis on the chart so we can see what you see. You can take a “Before the Trade” & “After the Trade” screen shot with your analysis of what you were thinking before you entered the market. Then you will be able to look back over your trades whether they are winners or losers and see what you did right or wrong and make the necessary adjustments. Also it will allow others in this forum to help you along your path to successful trading.

In the end this Journal can be more valuable than any book or advice column or guru. (Although the books are important in your learning years) You just have to stick with it.

I look forward to reading this journal and good luck on your journey.

Jeremy
"More important than the quest for certainty is the quest for clarity"
  • #3
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:35am Aug 24, 2009 2:35am
Thanks Jeremy.

Here is my new failed trade 1.43 did not support much. London opened and took out my 10 pip.
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  • #4
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:39am Aug 24, 2009 2:39am
This one faded at 1.645 and I moved my stop loss to breakeven after 9 pip profit. It stop at breakoven for 1.2 pip and then went for 40 pip profit within 1 hour.
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  • #5
  • Aug 24, 2009 3:39am Aug 24, 2009 3:39am
This trade faded at 1.4286 with pin/div was killed at around breakeven after failed to produce profit for a few bars. I don't like the price action.
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  • #6
  • Aug 24, 2009 3:59am Aug 24, 2009 3:59am
This is one trade that have gone and I could not take. I was waiting for 135.32 to fade it, but it faded at the higher line.
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  • #7
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:02am Aug 24, 2009 4:02am
Oh. It is a shame. This one has met my original 1:1 target, but I have killed it.

Quoting kk007
This trade faded at 1.4286 with pin/div was killed at around breakeven after failed to produce profit for a few bars. I don't like the price action.
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  • #8
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:39am Aug 24, 2009 4:39am
Another breakeven trade. In this trade, a pin/div is shown, I enter at the S/R 1.4300. The price move almost to hit my stoploss (2 pip away) and then reversed. It then almost hit my take profit (0.9 pip away). I have reset my stoploss to breakeven, and the price then hit my breakeven.

The trade I haven't take are always profitable, the trades I've taken are always losers or breakeven. How much longer I have to be like this?
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  • #9
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:57am Aug 24, 2009 4:57am
hang in there. if i may give some input--trade smaller position size, the smallest allowed by your broker, even if it is only one unit. as you know, trading smaller sizes helps one trade with very little emotion/ego involved.

when you are starting to gain confidence with your method, you will know when to add to your position.

keep at it.
youtube.com/@jimstradingjournal
  • #10
  • Aug 24, 2009 5:02am Aug 24, 2009 5:02am
Thanks syfx,

I am trading 0.1 lot, I don't feel the money making me emotional. It is the failure rate. Uncertainty seems playing hide-and-seek with me.

cheers,

kk

Quoting syfx
hang in there. if i may give some input--trade smaller position size, the smallest allowed by your broker, even if it is only one unit. as you know, trading smaller sizes helps one trade with very little emotion/ego involved.

when you are starting to gain confidence with your method, you will know when to add to your position.

keep at it.
  • #11
  • Aug 24, 2009 5:17am Aug 24, 2009 5:17am
Result for today:

All are 1:1 trades

1. Failed
2. Breakeven
3. Breakeven
4. Breakeven

Failure rate: 25%
Breakeven rate: 75%

May end today with this.
  • #12
  • Aug 24, 2009 5:22am Aug 24, 2009 5:22am
Quoting kk007
Another breakeven trade. In this trade, a pin/div is shown, I enter at the S/R 1.4300. The price move almost to hit my stoploss (2 pip away) and then reversed. It then almost hit my take profit (0.9 pip away). I have reset my stoploss to breakeven, and the price then hit my breakeven.

The trade I haven't take are always profitable, the trades I've taken are always losers or breakeven. How much longer I have to be like this?
Hi KK

Trading these short-term charts is much harder early on in the learning curve. A pin on 5M may not have the significance of one on a 4Hr chart. It's all about location.

Secondly I can't tell whether you were going long or short but these round number trades have to be played more carefully. However you determine your S/R areas you have to decide whether you are going to play a trend trade or counter-trend. I do this by looking at the longer-term charts. At the moment I'm really looking for long opportunities on EURUSD so am waiting for a clear break of 1.4300 and then look for pull-backs to find good entries.

A 2-pip stop isn't logical either in this situation. There is bound to be a lot of up and down movement around this area, simply because everyone is trying to out guess everyone else.

Stay out for a bit, wait until the direction is clearer and then trade whatever pull-backs appear. If price rejects 1.4300 and goes back down then wait for a small rise in the market and look for price action to indicate if the market is going lower. Do the opposite if price breaks and holds above 1.4300.

Don't give up yet, it's taken me 3 years to get even a basic feel for what is going on (mind you, I'm an old fart so it might take you less time).

Sit back and let trade opportunities develop. If you miss this move at least the direction may be clearer and then you can re-assess and climb on the next leg of the move.

Patience, patience, patience....
  • #13
  • Aug 24, 2009 5:47am Aug 24, 2009 5:47am
Quoting kk007
Result for today:

All are 1:1 trades

1. Failed
2. Breakeven
3. Breakeven
4. Breakeven

Failure rate: 25%
Breakeven rate: 75%

May end today with this.
Four trades this early in the day . I may not take that many in a week. My focus is on higher TFs than you, I know, but it looks as if you're trying to get back some money to make up for every losing trade.

This is the path to despair and account loss. Take a day off, watch the chart and plan your next trade very carefully. It may still go wrong but at least you'll fully understand why you took it.
  • #14
  • Aug 24, 2009 5:49am Aug 24, 2009 5:49am
PeterFM,

Thanks a lot for your advice. It is really helpful. I have decided that I can only trade intraday. I don't know how long it would take me. I know at least two guys trading intraday S/R fading successfully in a few months.

I also know a former local beauty contest competitor go straight into index intraday/swing trading and win all the way, when the long term trend is going up in the stock index, she long every time after the index go down a bit. She got a online statement, I saw her update from time to time. More than 20 winners in a row recently. Trend following seems easy when there is a trend.

I don't know how long it will take me.

I didn't make a stoploss 2 pip away. The price move to my initial stoploss, which is initially 10-15 pip away, and did not hit it, but the closer distance was 2 pip away.

Many thanks,

kk




Quoting PeterFM
Hi KK

Trading these short-term charts is much harder early on in the learning curve. A pin on 5M may not have the significance of one on a 4Hr chart. It's all about location.

Secondly I can't tell whether you were going long or short but these round number trades have to be played more carefully. However you determine your S/R areas you have to decide whether you are going to play a trend trade or counter-trend. I do this by looking at the longer-term charts. At the moment I'm really looking for long opportunities on EURUSD so am waiting for...
  • #15
  • Aug 24, 2009 5:53am Aug 24, 2009 5:53am
Quoting PeterFM
Four trades this early in the day . I may not take that many in a week. My focus is on higher TFs than you, I know, but it looks as if you're trying to get back some money to make up for every losing trade.

This is the path to despair and account loss. Take a day off, watch the chart and plan your next trade very carefully. It may still go wrong but at least you'll fully understand why you took it.
Thanks PeterFM,

No. I trade purely according to the setup requirement I decided eariler. They are mainly planned action.

kk
  • #16
  • Aug 24, 2009 6:07am Aug 24, 2009 6:07am
After any largish move there will always be some consolidation and you could look for this sort of action. You can see how much indecision is around this area.

If you look at the lows at 1, 3 & 5 there is a gradual climb. This is my flag that there may be an opportunity (assuming I'm looking for a long trade).

So I placed my order above the hammer? type bar (I don't understand candle patterns) as shown and put a stop below support at 1.4270.

It may work, it may not. At least I've thought this one through and will be happy to take the knocks if it goes t*ts up.


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  • #17
  • Aug 24, 2009 7:21am Aug 24, 2009 7:21am
Thanks PeterFM,

This is an ascending triangle. I don't trade this pattern because it does not happen every day and I am not very familiar with the probability and fine details of it. You should be able to get some profit for your trade now. Nevertheless, there is also one today (attached), which does not work out.

cheers,
kk

Quoting PeterFM
After any largish move there will always be some consolidation and you could look for this sort of action. You can see how much indecision is around this area.

If you look at the lows at 1, 3 & 5 there is a gradual climb. This is my flag that there may be an opportunity (assuming I'm looking for a long trade).

So I placed my order above the hammer? type bar (I don't understand candle patterns) as shown and put a stop below support at 1.4270.

It may work, it may not. At least I've thought this one through and will be happy to take the knocks...
Attached Image
  • #18
  • Aug 24, 2009 7:26am Aug 24, 2009 7:26am
Try this. Write down your trading system. Post it here if you don't mind. I suspect it's nothing top-secret. I also suspect there are some holes in your system you're not seeing. Some of us would be happy to look at it and give an opinion.
  • #19
  • Aug 24, 2009 7:27am Aug 24, 2009 7:27am
Quoting kk007
Thanks PeterFM,

This is an ascending triangle. I don't trade this pattern because it would not happen every day and I am not very familiar with the probability and fine details of it.
I don't have a clue on this sort of thing, but I'll take your word for it .
Quote
You should be able to get some profit for your trade now. Nevertheless, there is also one today (attached), which does not work out.

cheers,
kk
Yep, I'm locked in and have my TP set, so can relax and manage the trade from here.
  • #20
  • Aug 24, 2009 8:11am Aug 24, 2009 8:11am
Dopey.

Welcome for your coming. Yes, I can tell how I trade.
I use the method on the thread No Brainer Trade. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86429
There is no secret in this method. It uses purely S/R to trade. When price hit a strong S/R, normally it will rebound a bit. Fading a strong S/R will normally give you enough pips for profit locking.

The thread teaches how to evaluate the strength of the S/R, and when not to fade. In brief, a strong S/R has been used many time in the past but not visited many times recently. When momentum is strong and before news release, it is wise not to fade a S/R. It also teaches trendline, fibo etc. but they are just act as a minor supplement.

The author of the thread (once was very active) has not came back for a month. I suspect that he was disappointed by some thread visitors. Not sure about this.

I know there are at least two new learners of it make consistency profit after a few months practice.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13015
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12829

So, what I did is marking the S/R. Starting from D1, H1 and down to M5 to refine the exact value. I also used price action for reference, if it give a pin bar after inserting into a S/R. I will look to enter if the price retrace to the S/R. For this, I look at this sometimes http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163972.

For example, in my failed trade today, I expected that the price once hit the 1.4300 that I have marked as S/R will rebound for at least 10 pips, and the job is done. But it didn't.

I also have the kind of pullback trade that is similar as yours http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...79&postcount=5. The probability is particularly higher when the pullback is going with the higher timeframe trend.

I think that is all about it.

Thanks for reading!
kk
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