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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #41,821
  • Edited 11:53am Aug 23, 2009 11:38am | Edited 11:53am
If you mean risking 150 pip loss for 20 pip profit, as the first initial setting, it is not my cup of tea. I think it is worth only if you believe the probability of initial winning is higher than 90% (80% is not enough).

Quoting Bocajunior

Any opinions welcome.

Cheers
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  • #41,822
  • Aug 23, 2009 12:14pm Aug 23, 2009 12:14pm
Quoting Grousman
Good input fxvision - I posted the EURJPY chart thinking to take a long position. Any thoughts?
Yes, shop for a discount!

Watch for a likely pullback to test the broken resistance in the 134.40-60 region. Any 1H swing back to the area forming a bullish reversal formation or a buy signal would suffice. Market is likely going to need to suck in some sellers before breaking higher and up through the descending trendline. Buying a break of 135.50 does not give you much room towards 138 compared to your stop distance in perhaps 133.80. Since I am risk free on my first buy, I will be watching during the monday sessions for an addon. If you are cold blooded you could place a buy limit in say 134.65 with a stop in around 133.65. Range of 100 pips and potential for 345 towards 138. IMO you need those kind of numbers to warrant a long at this point. But I prefer the manual approach.

Good hunting!
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #41,823
  • Aug 23, 2009 12:19pm Aug 23, 2009 12:19pm
Possible trading plan...
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Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #41,824
  • Aug 23, 2009 12:39pm Aug 23, 2009 12:39pm
Quoting kk007
If you mean risking 150 pip loss for 20 pip profit, as the first initial setting, it is not my cup of tea. I think it is worth only if you believe the probability of initial winning is higher than 90% (80% is not enough).
The way I see it, a break should yield more than just 20 pips Kk,

Looking at it closely I see that the 95.5 ppz is more of a "to the pip" ppz than a really thick "zone"

Jarroo as usual made a great point in that the 9400 ppz is a real strong one which the BUOB/PB is off of.

The close could have been better but clearly the location is what stands out,

If I were to take this trade I would certainly be aiming for at least 95.5 while keeping it nice and tight.

Bear in mind that we do have a left eye poking out of the ppz which could aid in smaller stop placement too maybe...

g
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I believe . . .
  • #41,825
  • Aug 23, 2009 12:44pm Aug 23, 2009 12:44pm
Quoting Bocajunior
Evening everyone,

Just browsing through some charts. USDJPY is drawing a bit of attention.

Inside bar followed by BUOB/ doji type bar.
Failed to close below 61% fib retracement level.

There is a little bit of a mess to the left that could act as resistnace and is a concern, however if taken I would look for price to reach 95.00 then take profit and tighten stops.

Any opinions welcome.

Sorry for my chart, I will post from photobucket in future.

Cheers
You've gotten the bead on this pair already from others, so I'll just say this -

No need to use photobucket to attach a chart - just do it like you did. Works great and tastes like chicken!

Welcome to the forum - seems to me you've been doing some homework. Looking forward to hearing from you more and more!
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #41,826
  • Aug 23, 2009 2:43pm Aug 23, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting fxvision
Yes, shop for a discount!

Watch for a likely pullback to test the broken resistance in the 134.40-60 region. Any 1H swing back to the area forming a bullish reversal formation or a buy signal would suffice. Market is likely going to need to suck in some sellers before breaking higher and up through the descending trendline. Buying a break of 135.50 does not give you much room towards 138 compared to your stop distance in perhaps 133.80. Since I am risk free on my first buy, I will be watching during the monday sessions for an addon. If you are...
Very nice fxv.

Sorry but I can't see your chart very clearly. I hope I replicated it here correctly.

Another possible senario is the strength of the 135.00 PPZ level which was tested on Friday and could move upwards from here. Or it could drop like a rock. lol.

Should be fun to watch.

Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #41,827
  • Aug 23, 2009 2:56pm Aug 23, 2009 2:56pm
Hey folks,

I was just scanning my charts and found this pair interesting.
Basically I would like to play a breakout of this consolidation area, but considering this strong divergence and the not very clear trend, I will skip it.

This can be a classic James16 trade off edges of a consolidation box, if we will get a nice PA setup.

Basically I want to see a false break down, then most likely a nice BUOB or a pin bar will confirm going long. I have this strong divergence supporting me.
Take note that this kind of trade needs to be managed very carefully simply because it is a sideways trade, AKA diving into traffic (where other intraday trades get killed ).
I think it will be better managed on the 4H chart though.

Ohh and look at this. I have plotted the fib retracements of the major swing, and look what I got - the 38.2 and 50.00 line up perfectly with my PPZs ( by the way, the lower gray shadow is a major historic PPZ, so combining that with our div and fib it can be a nice trade)....all I need now is a false breakout and a nice PA to confirm.

@ Buca - good to see you here mate welcome to the thread!

Ben
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  • #41,828
  • Aug 23, 2009 3:07pm Aug 23, 2009 3:07pm
Quoting benji533
Hey folks,

I was just scanning my charts and found this pair interesting.
Basically I would like to play a breakout of this consolidation area, but considering this strong divergence and the not very clear trend, I will skip it.

This can be a classic James16 trade off edges of a consolidation box, if we will get a nice PA setup.

Basically I want to see a false break down, then most likely a nice BUOB or a pin bar will confirm going long. I have this strong divergence supporting me.
Take note that this kind of trade needs to be managed very carefully...
Yes, if we get that confirming BUOB or pin bar it's a range setup. But, and I know about not being biased, still I wonder if we're not heading for a break lower. Guess maybe it's up to the gents at the SNB to get us that setup
  • #41,829
  • Aug 23, 2009 3:24pm Aug 23, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Yes, if we get that confirming BUOB or pin bar it's a range setup. But, and I know about not being biased, still I wonder if we're not heading for a break lower. Guess maybe it's up to the gents at the SNB to get us that setup
Hey mac,

To be honest, I draw these lines a while ago hoping to see a nice breakout pattern down + pullback. But now when I saw this divergence I got an other direction of thinking. It still can be a breakout trade, but I will take it only if a super very clear breakout, pullback and PA will occur. That divergence can be ignored in a trending market, but when I look at the beg picture here, it is sill quite a ranging market.

By the way, I do not think that bias is a bad thing. I will tell you that...I even draw my predictions on most of my charts as an exercise. It is nice to see if you can predict the right moves, and learn from it...I'm learning all the time...try it

PS - I can predict that if a breakout will form, it will stall at that blue line. Why? major round number We shall see.

So this is another way I consider playing it:
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  • #41,830
  • Aug 23, 2009 3:30pm Aug 23, 2009 3:30pm
Quoting benji533
Hey mac,

To be honest, I draw these lines a while ago hoping to see a nice breakout pattern down + pullback. But now when I saw this divergence I got an other direction of thinking. It still can be a breakout trade, but I will take it only if a super very clear breakout, pullback and PA will occur. That divergence can be ignored in a trending market, but when I look at the beg picture here, it is sill quite a ranging market.

By the way, I do not think that bias is a bad thing. I will tell you that...I even draw my predictions on most of my charts...
I think I was a bit fuzzy in the last post. What i meant was that it's up to the SNB to talk price back above 1.06, giving us that BUOB or pin bar.

I agree with you that a break of 1.06 should be followed by a confirming retest, which we could then possibly short off of.

The 1.05 level is important, but I actually have my line at 1.06. Usually it's the round numbers, but in this case I thought 1.06 was a better fit.
Anyhow I doubt I'll trade a break as I'm not comfortable with those yet. So I'm hoping for a bounce if anything.
  • #41,831
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:02pm Aug 23, 2009 4:02pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I think I was a bit fuzzy in the last post. What i meant was that it's up to the SNB to talk price back above 1.06, giving us that BUOB or pin bar.

I agree with you that a break of 1.06 should be followed by a confirming retest, which we could then possibly short off of.

The 1.05 level is important, but I actually have my line at 1.06. Usually it's the round numbers, but in this case I thought 1.06 was a better fit.
Anyhow I doubt I'll trade a break as I'm not comfortable with those yet. So I'm hoping for a bounce if anything.
Ohh got you about the SNB (:

The 1.06 is my current PPZ where my orange line is placed. These round numbers do not always line up perfectly with the major PPZs, but because I am looking for a pullback to form, that is the most reasonable place IMO, and from there end the pullback at the 1.06 level.

By the way, pullbacks are easy. The general Idea is to spot a trending market. Then you want to see a "pause" in the trend, which is actually a mini choppy area which you can collect and line up between two lines. This is the stage when the market is gaining more power in order to continue the trend. Many traders play breakouts by simply placing stop orders above and below the choppy area. These patterns work because of the order flow which is build around this area.
But we want to wait for a pullback to our old PPZ that broke, and on it to find a clean fresh PA setup giving us another chance to ride.

The lines do not have to be horizontal only. You can use trendlines, but here is a catch. The direction of the trendline must be against the price. That means that if you have a downtrend, the support line must be pointing up.
Why? Because if it is pointing down, there isn't really a breakout of the trend - the move is a bit more sharper, that's all.


Why wait for a pullback...basically to avoid false breakouts. For example, if it breaks a bit up, it will probably hit SL orders of sellers which will give a little push up to all the heavy buy orders that is built there and shoot up. That is one way to play it.
The logic behind waiting for a pullback and then enter the trade, is basically to avoid false breakouts, that can be for example the price that hit some SL orders, but there are no any fresh buyers which to continue with the momentum - so there is no momentum - price reverses and that is a false breakout.
After the pullback, the old sellers which their SL was hit will be out, and if fresh buyers come in, you have a good chance to ride it far. That is a much more safer way to play it...and the important thing, is of course the PA confirmation. That is how you combine breakouts with the james16 material

Hey, hope you got me. It is a bit hard to explain this way. Tell me if I can clarify.
Maybe Mike can add or correct me here. This is his development

Ben

PS - PRACTICE ON DEMO FIRST (otherwise people here will kill you ...no, seriously).
  • #41,832
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:06pm Aug 23, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting benji533
Ohh got you about the SNB...
Yeah, I know all that stuff It's just that I'm focusing on reversals and I'll add breaks to the arsenal later.

Your explanation was excellent btw
  • #41,833
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:19pm Aug 23, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting benji533
Ohh got you about the SNB...
wow, r u sure u r 16.....just kidding
ive been enjoying ur posts, keep it up
how was everybody's weekend.
cheers

SQUEEZY
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #41,834
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:51pm Aug 23, 2009 4:51pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Yeah, I know all that stuff It's just that I'm focusing on reversals and I'll add breaks to the arsenal later.

Your explanation was excellent btw
Cool

Thanks squeezy. Just read all Mike and Jim posts, it's only them.
Here is one I was monitoring last week, but didn't take. It isn't the best example...I hoped it will squeeze a bit more.

Ben
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  • #41,835
  • Aug 23, 2009 4:53pm Aug 23, 2009 4:53pm
Quoting squeezy
wow, r u sure u r 16.....just kidding
ive been enjoying ur posts, keep it up
how was everybody's weekend.
cheers

SQUEEZY
Weekend has been weird, I put in a Buy Limit Order for the EURJPY @ 135.70 1st Target of 136.60.

AT&T cut my internet service due to their own mistakes, and cannot get it back up for a few days. I am p.o.'ed. I better get a discount, but will not complain until they are done (so they do not delay just because I do complain).
  • #41,836
  • Aug 23, 2009 5:26pm Aug 23, 2009 5:26pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Weekend has been weird, I put in a Buy Limit Order for the EURJPY @ 135.70 1st Target of 136.60.

AT&T cut my internet service due to their own mistakes, and cannot get it back up for a few days. I am p.o.'ed. I better get a discount, but will not complain until they are done (so they do not delay just because I do complain).
ouch sorry about that, this should probably make you consider backup incase of next time...
i have a backup & thinking of getting a backup for my backup ....lol
dnt worry, ur week definately wont end weird, have faith bro

Quoting benji533
Cool

Thanks squeezy. Just read all Mike and Jim posts, it's only them.
Here is one I was monitoring last week, but didn't take. It isn't the best example...I hoped it will squeeze a bit more.

Ben
good for you Ben
well, i would like to see a pullback to .8650 and then pa to go long...
who knows???
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Simplicity is the key to success
  • #41,837
  • Aug 23, 2009 5:33pm Aug 23, 2009 5:33pm
Anyone interested in shorting the USDCAD?

Weekly BEOB and looking at Daily PA we see that price broke below the 1.09 Strong PPZ, then tested breaking back above only to fail and end the week below.
  • #41,838
  • Aug 23, 2009 5:46pm Aug 23, 2009 5:46pm
Quoting benji533
Cool

Thanks squeezy. Just read all Mike and Jim posts, it's only them.
Here is one I was monitoring last week, but didn't take. It isn't the best example...I hoped it will squeeze a bit more.

Ben
Clean and simple, very nice Ben
  • #41,839
  • Edited 7:16pm Aug 23, 2009 7:03pm | Edited 7:16pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Anyone interested in shorting the USDCAD?

Weekly BEOB and looking at Daily PA we see that price broke below the 1.09 Strong PPZ, then tested breaking back above only to fail and end the week below.
Your weekly BEOB does look tantilizing...

Looks like there's a 150 pip window of opportunity there until troubling ppz's can interfere with short....

GregB
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  • #41,840
  • Aug 23, 2009 7:42pm Aug 23, 2009 7:42pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Anyone interested in shorting the USDCAD?

Weekly BEOB and looking at Daily PA we see that price broke below the 1.09 Strong PPZ, then tested breaking back above only to fail and end the week below.
I'm short since wednesday @1.0990, after the 2 day pin bar that formed with sunday's and monday's bars. Closed half @1.0907 because of the PPZ and moved stop to BE. I am still short with the second half.

This is on DEMO btw....
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