The Thief of Wall Street
- #241
- Edited 10:17am Aug 18, 2009 10:15am | Edited 10:17am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
- #242
- Aug 18, 2009 3:10pm Aug 18, 2009 3:10pm
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
EUR/USD
Long at: 1.4114
TP: 1.4196
SL: 1.4065
Position size: 5/4 (1 1/4 full position)
Entry Reason:
1. PA broke TL at 1.4109
2. Strong support at 1.4104
This partial profit taking has nothing to do with PA or technicals. Took some profit off the table, because my account balance crossed a psychological level and want to see this balance for a while to feel good.
Position summary:
Long at: 1.4114
TP: 1.4196 (82 pips)
SL: 1.4065 (49 pips)
Position size: 2/4 (half position)
Entry Reason:
1. PA broke TL at 1.4109
2. Strong support at 1.4104
The Thief of Wall Street
- #243
- Edited 9:09pm Aug 18, 2009 3:23pm | Edited 9:09pm
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
Why do more than 90% traders fail?
Thinking about writing my views on this. Want to jolt these few thoughts here before I forget.
1. Many inexperienced traders do not try to maintain capacity of absorbing 10 to 12 or maybe few more consecutive losses. If trading edge is the probabiility of more positive outcomes in long-run, one should be ready to accept a series of negative outcomes. Despite knowing how my edge works, I still feel depressed after getting more than two losses in a row - human nature
. I am damn sure if at some point of time I hit a series of five or six losses, no one would visit this already somewhat deserted and boring thread.
2. I am not sure about other threads, whenever on EURUSD thread, even a few pip change in PA direction creates havoc among traders. Some relaxing their TPs and others getting out or partially closing trades, shouting in excitement, revising their plans by hundreds of pips on a 10 pip but sudden move, etc. etc. All indicating that they are either not aware of or do not accept volatile nature of forex market.
3. Their brains can be easily polluted and thoughts manipulated with any kind of BS that is convincingly presented. They do not want to look at the things from their own perspective and test at least logic in what is presented before them. They want to "believe" in and do not want to "test" any new or old idea. It took me several years to believe that there is some truth in "trend is a friend". However, see many traders blindly following this phrase. Another is "cut your losses down and let your winners run". Blindly following such "universal truths" is probably the greatest hinderance in their learning.
4. Then there are "holy grail" methods. I spent hours and hours, day after day, month after month and year after year to find a flaw in various gambling and speculative businesses. Believing that there should be one and that would give me a risk free edge. But this thought never ever crossed my mind that I should check if someone is selling a "holy grail". Why? because a "holy grail" would simply not something that one would put on sale, and by whom? a trillionaire?
. But it is unbelievable that many traders spend thousands to buy and try such BS systems. If any automated or mechanical system can work the way new traders perceive, there would have been no markets by now.
5. Then there is a calculator, a certain percentage and certain number of trading days. 1% a day and 365 days a year makes it 365% a year. Discount it for working days and contingencies it comes to 150% a year- Wow!. Compare it against investment return by banks, and boom - here we go!. Once this is conceived, the next step is to check in how many days, weeks, months or years a $5,000 investment will multiply to $20 million and more probably $200 million. Apply some sensitivity analysis by chaging certain assumptions or percentages and we get $200 million in 8 years from an initial investment of $2,000 in a micro account. This does not stop here, on trading live, these years get converted to days and days get converted to hours at a leverage of 1:400 and with almost nothing or lunch money to lose.
6. Then there is a small loss, next position is bigger than previous. Again a loss and again even more bigger position after a few minutes. Again a loss, but no issue. Here comes a "once in a lifetime trade" with almost 100% assurance. The whole farm (or whatever is remaining) goes off.
Thinking about writing my views on this. Want to jolt these few thoughts here before I forget.
1. Many inexperienced traders do not try to maintain capacity of absorbing 10 to 12 or maybe few more consecutive losses. If trading edge is the probabiility of more positive outcomes in long-run, one should be ready to accept a series of negative outcomes. Despite knowing how my edge works, I still feel depressed after getting more than two losses in a row - human nature
. I am damn sure if at some point of time I hit a series of five or six losses, no one would visit this already somewhat deserted and boring thread.2. I am not sure about other threads, whenever on EURUSD thread, even a few pip change in PA direction creates havoc among traders. Some relaxing their TPs and others getting out or partially closing trades, shouting in excitement, revising their plans by hundreds of pips on a 10 pip but sudden move, etc. etc. All indicating that they are either not aware of or do not accept volatile nature of forex market.
3. Their brains can be easily polluted and thoughts manipulated with any kind of BS that is convincingly presented. They do not want to look at the things from their own perspective and test at least logic in what is presented before them. They want to "believe" in and do not want to "test" any new or old idea. It took me several years to believe that there is some truth in "trend is a friend". However, see many traders blindly following this phrase. Another is "cut your losses down and let your winners run". Blindly following such "universal truths" is probably the greatest hinderance in their learning.
4. Then there are "holy grail" methods. I spent hours and hours, day after day, month after month and year after year to find a flaw in various gambling and speculative businesses. Believing that there should be one and that would give me a risk free edge. But this thought never ever crossed my mind that I should check if someone is selling a "holy grail". Why? because a "holy grail" would simply not something that one would put on sale, and by whom? a trillionaire?
. But it is unbelievable that many traders spend thousands to buy and try such BS systems. If any automated or mechanical system can work the way new traders perceive, there would have been no markets by now.5. Then there is a calculator, a certain percentage and certain number of trading days. 1% a day and 365 days a year makes it 365% a year. Discount it for working days and contingencies it comes to 150% a year- Wow!. Compare it against investment return by banks, and boom - here we go!. Once this is conceived, the next step is to check in how many days, weeks, months or years a $5,000 investment will multiply to $20 million and more probably $200 million. Apply some sensitivity analysis by chaging certain assumptions or percentages and we get $200 million in 8 years from an initial investment of $2,000 in a micro account. This does not stop here, on trading live, these years get converted to days and days get converted to hours at a leverage of 1:400 and with almost nothing or lunch money to lose.
6. Then there is a small loss, next position is bigger than previous. Again a loss and again even more bigger position after a few minutes. Again a loss, but no issue. Here comes a "once in a lifetime trade" with almost 100% assurance. The whole farm (or whatever is remaining) goes off.
The Thief of Wall Street
- #244
- Edited 1:01am Aug 19, 2009 12:45am | Edited 1:01am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
Closed 3/4 position at 1.4136 and running 2/4 (half) of normal position.
This partial profit taking has nothing to do with PA or technicals. Took some profit off the table, because my account balance crossed a psychological level and want to see this balance for a while to feel good.
Position summary:
Long at: 1.4114
TP: 1.4196 (82 pips)
SL: 1.4065 (49 pips)
Position size: 2/4 (half position)
Entry Reason:
1. PA broke TL at 1.4109
2. Strong support at 1.4104
Reason for adding:
It appears to be widening of the channel then a down move. Many times lost such trades thinking it to be down move.
Redrawn channel:
The Thief of Wall Street
- #245
- Aug 19, 2009 1:22am Aug 19, 2009 1:22am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
Added 2/4 position at 1.4122.
Reason for adding:
It appears to be widening of the channel then a down move. Many times lost such trades thinking it to be down move.
Redrawn channel:
Losses are part of the game, so let's get prepared for that this time.
The Thief of Wall Street
- #246
- Edited 9:09am Aug 19, 2009 9:03am | Edited 9:09am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
EUR/USD
Long at: 1.4114
TP: 1.4196
SL: 1.4065
Position size: 5/4 (1 1/4 full position)
Entry Reason:
1. PA broke TL at 1.4109
2. Strong support at 1.4104
This partial profit taking has nothing to do with PA or technicals. Took some profit off the table, because my account balance crossed a psychological level and want to see this balance for a while to feel good.
Position summary:
Long at: 1.4114
TP: 1.4196 (82 pips)
SL: 1.4065 (49 pips)
Position size: 2/4 (half position)
Entry Reason:
1. PA broke TL at 1.4109
2. Strong support at 1.4104[/quote]
Added 2/4 position at 1.4122.
Reason for adding:
It appears to be widening of the channel then a down move. Many times lost such trades thinking it to be down move.
Redrawn channel:
The PA is not behaving as expected. It is time to see if 1.4104, the safety net works. If PA bounces from this level in next 20 minutes or so may continue going towards this week's open. This is Franky session and therefore will be too early to get out at this point.
Losses are part of the game, so let's get prepared for that this time.
Closed 2/4 position at 1.4150. Let's see if rest 2/4 hits tp or sl. Will move sl if 1.4150 becomes a support.
Latest Position summary:
Long at: 1.4114
TP: 1.4196 (82 pips)
SL: 1.4065 (49 pips)
Position size: 2/4 (half position)
The Thief of Wall Street
- #247
- Aug 19, 2009 9:15am Aug 19, 2009 9:15am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
Sitting tight for about seven hours paid off.
Closed 2/4 position at 1.4150. Let's see if rest 2/4 hits tp or sl. Will move sl if 1.4150 becomes a support.
Latest Position summary:
Long at: 1.4114
TP: 1.4196 (82 pips)
SL: 1.4065 (49 pips)
Position size: 2/4 (half position)
Closed remaining 2/4 position at 1.4180.
PA moved too fast.
Now waiting for a good short entry
The Thief of Wall Street
- #248
- Edited 10:06am Aug 19, 2009 9:34am | Edited 10:06am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
The Thief of Wall Street
- #249
- Aug 19, 2009 10:07am Aug 19, 2009 10:07am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
The Thief of Wall Street
- #250
- Edited 10:44am Aug 19, 2009 10:21am | Edited 10:44am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
Added one more short with 1/8th of normal position size at 1.4237.
This is moving too fast and cannot update journal quick enough.
Position summary:
EUR/USD: Short
Price: 1.4212 (average of all positions)
TP: 1.4051 (161 pips)
SL: 1.4338 (126 pips)
Positions size: 4/4 (100%)
Reasons for entry:
1. PA near to top of a downward channel
2. Seems market has taken a bite bigger than what it could swallow. If swallows, don't think will be able to digest
The Thief of Wall Street
- #251
- Aug 19, 2009 11:55am Aug 19, 2009 11:55am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
The Thief of Wall Street
- #252
- Aug 19, 2009 11:57am Aug 19, 2009 11:57am
- Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Trader | 9,414 Posts
Closed remaining 2/4 position at 1.4180.
PA moved too fast.
Now waiting for a good short entry
Chicky I think u making many trades and u closed this one early! Actully not sure what ur view long or short!Who said watch and analysis the market less fun than trade, I enjoy it while testing my time cycle and my long view
- #253
- Aug 19, 2009 12:18pm Aug 19, 2009 12:18pm
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
I keep my eyes on ur thread
Who said watch and analysis the market less fun than trade, I enjoy it while testing my time cycle and my long view
1. It was not early when closed my longs around 1.4180, rather it was right time. I had to wait hours to see PA get there. Nothing is too early or too late, if it gives you your objective.
2. I wish I could contribute more because I learned more than 90% on FF. However, I have finished putting together last pieces to my method and therefore about to conclude this journal in few days.
3. Everything I know about trading is in here. If I continue this thread, it will only show about 100 trades in a month, 48 losers and 52 winners, each giving or taking 1% of my capital.
4. My dream is to see a day when I am so successful that this thread becomes immortal and people do their PhDs in its contents
. The Thief of Wall Street
- #254
- Aug 19, 2009 12:40pm Aug 19, 2009 12:40pm
- Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Trader | 9,414 Posts
Hi eg,
My dream is to see a day when I am so successful that this thread becomes immortal and people do their PhDs in its contents
You are already one of few guys i respect and follow what they post,Keep doing the great work.
- #255
- Edited 12:08am Aug 21, 2009 12:06am | Edited 12:08am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
The Thief of Wall Street
- #256
- Aug 21, 2009 8:29am Aug 21, 2009 8:29am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
The Thief of Wall Street
- #257
- Aug 21, 2009 8:33am Aug 21, 2009 8:33am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
The Thief of Wall Street
- #258
- Edited 6:02pm Aug 21, 2009 11:58am | Edited 6:02pm
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
The Thief of Wall Street
- #259
- Aug 21, 2009 12:26pm Aug 21, 2009 12:26pm
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
The Thief of Wall Street
