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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #41,661
  • Aug 20, 2009 8:32pm Aug 20, 2009 8:32pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey P

This is my exact chart I had already marked up for someone else prior to this trade executing. The blue are the trouble areas. First one was hit and stopped right there. Is it wrong to hold a trade? No. It's more important to understand where these areas are and then react accordingly. I personally use information such as the size of a bar to decide to hold or not through these areas. This is one such size bar that would put me in the take profit mode. Simply for my style that is.

Hope that helps
Mike
Hi Mike master of breakouts I need your advice.

I have been looking for some breakout patterns today and found this lovely exotic pair EURSEK. It was squeezing during the last month, and it is with the trend. In addition, there are no special trouble areas in the way, so it can catch a good run.

My only concern is that divergence. Do you skip good setups when you have that kind of divergence at extreme low? looking scary to me

By the way, boring day for me....no good enough trade opportunities...patient, discipline, patient, discipline...

Ben
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  • #41,662
  • Aug 20, 2009 8:37pm Aug 20, 2009 8:37pm
pullback at the fib
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  • #41,663
  • Aug 20, 2009 8:50pm Aug 20, 2009 8:50pm
Quoting batesmotel
I am considering these tweezer tops (I'm a sucker for a nice set of tweezer tops) for a short UJ.......what do you guys think?

I'm very bullish on UJ for long term....once she breaks out of bullish flag....we could see some mega pips....but for now, till it breaks out, this is lookin like a half decent short.

Any comments?

GregB
Hey Bates! Did you enter the UJ short that we discussed Sunday? Looks like she's moving down. I shorted at 94.24 and the first TP is 92.01. Just curious. Here is my 4 hr view. I am watching that trendline to add as price moves down. I'd re-post the W2 chart but it doesn't look that same as when I posted it last Sunday.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #41,664
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:12pm Aug 20, 2009 9:12pm
Quoting joelcf
Hey ijay,

I have three different kinds of trails I use, depending on the situation...

(in order of complexity)

a) 20 pip stop. Simple, easy, automatic and I dont have to think. Downside is that it is arbitary as hell

b) 2 bar trailing stop - aka 'the mike'. If I dont have any clear signals, but dont really think there is much room to run, I set a stop at the high/low 2 bars back. Its straightforward, but only really good with small bars - with big bars it can give too much back to Mr Market for my liking

c) my favourite trailing exit...
joelcf's post is enjoyable as usual. i like to add one to the list for consideration.

conditional candle(bar) = candle closes above/below last candle's high/low

i usually consider it for high momentum, or (almost)vertical moves. as you can see on the example chart below, it does a decent job to filter out noice while keeping trade in place(when it works). go back in the charts and look for them, see how you like it.

last comment: using trail stops base on bars/candles, is like using PA to trigger the trade, always know the bigger picture(ppz, sup/res, etc.).
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  • #41,665
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:25pm Aug 20, 2009 9:25pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey P

It's more important to understand where these areas are and then react accordingly.

I personally use information such as the size of a bar to decide to hold or not through these areas. This is one such size bar that would put me in the take profit mode. Simply for my style that is.

Hope that helps
Mike

I'm sure it was not only the size of that PB that helped your decision Mike. The PB looks a little crowded, like it was stuffed in an over loaded elevator. lol

Your statement above is an important one. Once we understand where these "trouble areas" are, the next step is to "react accordingly". Meaning there is an "action" on our part. An action to the management of our trade. Move to Break Even, take partial or full profits, etc.

Its a crucial part of the trade management on any given PA setup.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #41,666
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:26pm Aug 20, 2009 9:26pm
Quoting benji533
Hi Mike master of breakouts I need your advice.

I have been looking for some breakout patterns today and found this lovely exotic pair EURSEK. It was squeezing during the last month, and it is with the trend. In addition, there are no special trouble areas in the way, so it can catch a good run.

My only concern is that divergence. Do you skip good setups when you have that kind of divergence at extreme low? looking scary to me

By the way, boring day for me....no good enough trade opportunities...patient, discipline, patient, discipline...

Ben...
Hey Ben

Here is a post I made in the PF.

I will trade breakouts like this, but I am well aware of the divergence, and know not to get greedy. This presents us with opportunities not only to the downside but the long side. The question was with oversold/bought conditions and I used the eur/sek in my breakout thread as an example

[quote=mbqb11;34916]
Basically you can sort of see it, but MACD helps hint at this for me too. When a pair becomes over extended you can sort of feel a retrace is in order.

Here is an example, of a likely scenario that I see happen quite often. You can see if we make a new low here (with this breakout) we are going to have this extreme MACD. There is almost no way that the MACD can catch up to price before their is a spring back or some kind of retracement.


Again I would say some is just seeing a chart, and you get a feel, but from the technicals we can see quite a bit to be ready to watch nice areas.

Hope that helps!
Mike[/QUOTE
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  • #41,667
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:30pm Aug 20, 2009 9:30pm
Quoting jarroo
I'm sure it was not only the size of that PB that helped your decision Mike. The PB looks a little crowded, like it was stuffed in an over loaded elevator. lol

Your statement above is an important one. Once we understand where these "trouble areas" are, the next step is to "react accordingly". Meaning there is an "action" on our part. An action to the management of our trade. Move to Break Even, take partial or full profits, etc.

Its a crucial part of the trade management on any given PA setup.

Jim
Yes you are very correct sir
  • #41,668
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:36pm Aug 20, 2009 9:36pm
[quote=mbqb11;2973451]
Quoting mbqb11
Basically you can sort of see it, but MACD helps hint at this for me too. When a pair becomes over extended you can sort of feel a retrace is in order.

Here is an example, of a likely scenario that I see happen quite often. You can see if we make a new low here (with this breakout) we are going to have this extreme MACD. There is almost no way that the MACD can catch up to price before their is a spring back or some kind of retracement. [/QUOTE
Reading your breakout posts is fascinating, Mike. I always figured breakouts were an obvious trade ('duh, there is a line and price went through it...easy game!'), but I guess like anything there are layers upon layers of complexity that just go further and further each time.

Kinda shows the difference between a rookie and a pro is all in the depth of thinking.

God damn I have alot to learn

(still working through the breakout thread...slowly)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #41,669
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:53pm Aug 20, 2009 9:53pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Ben

Here is a post I made in the PF.

I will trade breakouts like this, but I am well aware of the divergence, and know not to get greedy. This presents us with opportunities not only to the downside but the long side. The question was with oversold/bought conditions and I used the eur/sek in my breakout thread as an example


Basically you can sort of see it, but MACD helps hint at this for me too....
Interesting...
Let me guess, you have plotted the 1.0000 because it's a round number? I need to be more aware of them.

I know that playing breakouts against the trend is a no-no for you, but in this case we are at extreme low with strong divergence. Maybe it's a real reserval. Anyway if I'll take it long, I will most likely consider taking full profit at the 10.4000 round number and major PPZ level....mainly because we will be facing a strong trend. But I will prefer breaking short.
It can be interesting.

Thanks for your reply buddy

Ben

Edit: In a second thought...I won't take it long at all...too strong trend and lots of traffic for this.
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  • #41,670
  • Aug 20, 2009 10:59pm Aug 20, 2009 10:59pm
now long for what its worth
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  • #41,671
  • Aug 20, 2009 11:05pm Aug 20, 2009 11:05pm
Quoting TiaForex
Awesome stuff Joel. What platform do you use for charting futures?

I think tradestation my well end up being my Christmas present....

Tradestation is great and have used it for years, started with TS2000i now it's all web. It's nice if you look at a lot of things but for me I just use the eur/usd free ones BUT when I traded the 3min S&P e-mini 1 bad tick would throw up a incorrect divergence and kill me so it was worth it paying the $300 a month for everything. Also tradestation is easy to use and I have messed with most charting software including the $600 a month CQG
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #41,672
  • Aug 20, 2009 11:09pm Aug 20, 2009 11:09pm
Quoting 4X=0
now long for what its worth
Attachment

I hope you don't trade that far zoomed in, I know from when I started out I would zoom WAY in to make crap trades look good, that's back in the 90%+ loss days
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #41,673
  • Aug 21, 2009 1:10am Aug 21, 2009 1:10am
DEAD ON.

COULD NOT AGREE MORE.

you can open an account with them and just use the account to pay for the charting.

its just 99 plus fees that way.





Quoting Ryanmcd
Tradestation is great and have used it for years, started with TS2000i now it's all web. It's nice if you look at a lot of things but for me I just use the eur/usd free ones BUT when I traded the 3min S&P e-mini 1 bad tick would throw up a incorrect divergence and kill me so it was worth it paying the $300 a month for everything. Also tradestation is easy to use and I have messed with most charting software including the $600 a month CQG
  • #41,674
  • Aug 21, 2009 1:13am Aug 21, 2009 1:13am
chart
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  • #41,675
  • Aug 21, 2009 1:48am Aug 21, 2009 1:48am
Quoting james16
chart
I'm sure the rejection of #5 brought about by the area of #4 was no surprise either, right Jim.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.



http://i31.tinypic.com/nx95wl.gif
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #41,676
  • Aug 21, 2009 2:10am Aug 21, 2009 2:10am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
nice pin bars now

thanks, James16 and Jarroo
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  • #41,677
  • Aug 21, 2009 2:21am Aug 21, 2009 2:21am
Quoting krue
nice pin bars now

thanks, James16 and Jarroo

Hey Krue. Sorry I can't post my own charts right now.

Looks good. We have to be aware of all those Highs/Lows to the left, i.e. traffic. (chart)

Now depending on the quailty of this setup( location, size, confluences, etc,) this PB may cut through this traffic like a knife and reach your previous Highs as a target.

Would you consider this an "A" catagory setup? Same with the Eur/Jpy.

http://i25.tinypic.com/28wktjm.gif
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #41,678
  • Aug 21, 2009 2:30am Aug 21, 2009 2:30am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Jarroo, thanks a ton, for the enlightment, this is exactly the insight I am looking for, and, I am trying hard to learn your trade management technique.

Yes, I think this seems to me an A category, if looking into daily. daily ppz, 50/61 fib ret, trendline. there are a lot trouble areas as you indicated already, hence not an A+

Hope I made a sense, still struggle in learning this method.


Quoting jarroo
Hey Krue. Sorry I can't post my own charts right now.

Looks good. We have to be aware of all those Highs/Lows to the left, i.e. traffic. (chart)

Now depending on the quailty of this setup( location, size, confluences, etc,) this PB may cut through this traffic like a knife and reach your previous Highs as a target.

Would you consider this an "A" catagory setup?

http://i25.tinypic.com/28wktjm.gif
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  • #41,679
  • Aug 21, 2009 2:37am Aug 21, 2009 2:37am
Quoting krue
nice pin bars now

thanks, James16 and Jarroo
EURJPY is reverse head and shoulders pattern too. See it?
  • #41,680
  • Aug 21, 2009 2:40am Aug 21, 2009 2:40am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
if it breaks out the neckline, then, yes. will take profit near the neckline. and to be safe to play breakout retrace, if a pa present itself in future

Quoting Lugner
EURJPY is reverse head and shoulders pattern too. See it?
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