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The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

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Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

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Technical Analysis Fallacy

A lot of what is said about TA in this thread is similar to the refutation of EWT at http://orvinfive.blogspot.com/
Quoting j-pax
hello mamood and everyone. i sometimes read peoples trades like scout in .4234... level two attack at .4232..... etc. i don't realy get a picture in my mind.. probably it's clear for the trained eye.

i would share some of my good and bad dances and would like to see some to learn. i mean charts.... i think i am not the only one.
i was wondering why nobody has opened a naked dance charts thread. it would not be nice if TAF-thread was cluttered with charts

i could do this but it may be better if a veteran would like this idea and start some sharing...
Hi j-pax. I think fti should be the one to approve your request about posting charts. MaMood has a good point about charts and trading, but I read your note as a request for input on a trade, not on trading or trade development. However, a posted chart/question invites input from anyone on the thread, including a master trader like fti, his students like MaMood, as well as, any goof ball who happens along. It would be up to you to figure out who's who.
Quoting GEfx
Hi j-pax. I think fti should be the one to approve your request about posting charts. MaMood has a good point about charts and trading, but I read your note as a request for input on a trade, not on trading or trade development. However, a posted chart/question invites input from anyone on the thread, including a master trader like fti, his students like MaMood, as well as, any goof ball who happens along. It would be up to you to figure out who's who.
thank you Gefx. you are right, that's why i was hoping the "veterans and cenrtainly fti" would aprove a sepetarate space. i respect this thread and would not bother it by posting chats here for some feedback.

anyway.....for now i don't even know how to save a chart from oanda.
(i have a xps document but don't know how to convert it)

about who is who. i think i can take a goofball comment and i feel there is much support here.

good night for me and good morning asia.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #9,824
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:44pm Aug 20, 2009 8:17pm | Edited 8:44pm
Quoting maheswara
If London is still the largest, y do we find NY to have more volatility ...
at least past one month...
sorry
1> what the meaning of volatility ? < coz i can not find it in my english dictioonary

2>also what the meaning of imho ? coz i often read this word on the thread

3> maybe to basic question : market maker is mean who move the currency market ?
or who created the spread in the currency market ?

4> if market marker move the market / can market marker win to move the market againt whole people in the world ?

5> if market maker really can move the market i think market maker spend <lose> a lot of money every time he/she move the market is that right ? the longer he / she hold to move the market the longer spend< lose > much a lot of money ,, right?

thx again maheswara for the time to answer my silly question / just curious to know

regard
suma
  • #9,825
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:28pm Aug 20, 2009 8:39pm | Edited 9:28pm
Hi fti,maheswara & everyone,

A joke is something that, when presented that all can laugh, and never at others expense.

here is a lesson my father taught me , early in life. It may be useful.

This thread is one of the best thread I've ever read in FF(learn trading & also learn something useful & good for my life too. Sorry a bit late to post this comment,due to my long working hour (12hrs a day 5 days a week) so I dont post much - just observe. I'm sorry if I've done something wrong to upset anyone in this thread, please forgive me I didnt mean it.

rite now maheswara is coaching me. Even to ask him question I still have some problem bcoz my working time (demo trading too-very busy)I would like to thank him for his great contribution to this thread & to me.

@fti, you are very great person to start up this thread for free & you empasize that too.how great!!!!. I wish I can learn from you but my standard have to learn from your student first. And I know you are very busy too.

I would like to thank Fti & maheswara and also everyone in this thread that I 'm learning from you guys.

I wish I can be part of this community but due to lacking of communication so I'm happy just to observe

best regards,

pete - sorry for my english.
  • #9,826
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:03pm Aug 20, 2009 8:51pm | Edited 9:03pm
[quote=sumakianlee;2973188]sorry
1> what the meaning of volatility ? < coz i can not find it in my english dictioonary

2>also what the meaning of imho ? coz i often read this word on the thread

Hi Suma,

Most of the time i write post I have to look at yahoo dictionary(good explanation even abbr.)
it's help you a lot coz my english is poor too.
Hope it helps,

regards,

pete
Quoting ukmanthailan
I've just been looking at people's profiles and their friends / vouchers etcetera and realised I'm about as popular as a pork pie at a bar mitzvah in this little virtual community here - even compared to some who have only recently joined in. I'm not quite sure why as I always tried to be polite.

Anyway, please accept my apologies for being so slow to catch on and making unwanted posts on here for so long. I finally got the message and I won't intrude any longer.
Ukmanthailan,

Forget about the vouches, btw I just added one for ya. A while back on FF there was a trade room that was restricted from posting to members only with X amount of vouches, so there was a race to get those vouches to be able to post in those threads..... woopie!!! That and $1.50 would buy a small cup of coffee in most restaurants......

their significance has dropped since FF dropped the trade-room.

There's alot of things to strive for in life, having vouches on a public forum isn't one of them. When it comes to trading the self-gratification comes only from profits, it's a lonely business. Vouches leave the belly hungry

Keep up the good work.

a

Edit: I might add that there's no relationship between the # of vouches and the ability to trade. Just take a look at some of the discussions and threads started by some of the top vouch posters here at FF..... I'm speechless at times.
  • #9,828
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:58pm Aug 20, 2009 9:47pm | Edited 9:58pm
Quoting sumakianlee
sorry
1> what the meaning of volatility ? < coz i can not find it in my english dictioonary

Volatility is to move quickly, rapid movement, explosive

2>also what the meaning of imho ? coz i often read this word on the thread

In My Humble/Honest Opinion

3> maybe to basic question : market maker is mean who move the currency market ?
or who created the spread in the currency market ?

[color=Blue]Marketmaker is just that , who makes the market you trade, could be your broker...
Answers in blue above.

The Market Maker is the one that makes your market. Could be your Broker or the the Bank(s) your broker clears through and quotes from.

The MM controls the prices to their customers only, not the world. There are levels to the banks Tier1, Tier2 and so on..... CB's on top.........reread FTI's explanation, this is covered in the thread and the recommended reading materials

The MM can move or shade prices (quoting them away from the normal spot price), this could result in a lose for the MM, but there's many reasons for them to do this, mainly in their favor.
  • #9,829
  • Quote
  • Aug 20, 2009 10:35pm Aug 20, 2009 10:35pm
Quoting fti
I take what she's willing to give.
I hope everyone understands that
  • #9,830
  • Quote
  • Aug 20, 2009 11:26pm Aug 20, 2009 11:26pm
Quoting j-pax
hello mamood and everyone. i sometimes read peoples trades like scout in .4234... level two attack at .4232..... etc. i don't realy get a picture in my mind.. probably it's clear for the trained eye.

i would share some of my good and bad dances and would like to see some to learn. i mean charts.... i think i am not the only one.
i was wondering why nobody has opened a naked dance charts thread. it would not be nice if TAF-thread was cluttered with charts

i could do this but it may be better if a veteran would like this idea and start some sharing...
Hi J-pax , may be post number 2862 and 2861

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2861

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2862
  • #9,831
  • Quote
  • Aug 20, 2009 11:36pm Aug 20, 2009 11:36pm
the picasso master piece , i still have to learn to paint but

http://img39.imagefra.me/img/img39/2...2m_57382c6.jpg
  • #9,832
  • Quote
  • Aug 20, 2009 11:36pm Aug 20, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting auxesis
Answers in blue above.

The Market Maker is the one that makes your market. Could be your Broker or the the Bank(s) your broker clears through and quotes from.

The MM controls the prices to their customers only, not the world. There are levels to the banks Tier1, Tier2 and so on..... CB's on top.........reread FTI's explanation, this is covered in the thread and the recommended reading materials

The MM can move or shade prices (quoting them away from the normal spot price), this could result in a lose for the MM, but there's many reasons for...
thx brother auxesis,, your explanation help to understanding me
regard
suma
  • #9,833
  • Quote
  • Aug 21, 2009 12:06am Aug 21, 2009 12:06am
Quoting sumakianlee
thx brother auxesis,, your explanation help to understanding me
regard
suma
Suma,

You are most welcome, go back through the first part of the thread, Fti talks about market structure, starting with the Central Banks and working down through the Tier1 banks and lower talking about the purpose and job of each in the market place.... there is also some required reading outside the thread for full knowledge.

You may need to find some translated books, it will be some work, but it's worth the effort... as most things in life you get out what you put in.... keep up the good work.

regards,
Large buyer of USD Euro scutters market at Lunch.

markett caught long of Euros high, waiting for Dusselddort and FFt to unload Euros.
Quoting fti
Large buyer of USD Euro scutters market at Lunch.

markett caught long of Euros high, waiting for Dusselddort and FFt to unload Euros.

Good Morning fti and Friends!

fti I have seen sometimes that you mentioned Duesseldorf a major player/location. I did not know, that it is that relevant to FX trading. Do you have any further details about Duesseldorf?
Just curious ...

Thanx
Quoting sumakianlee
sorry
1> what the meaning of volatility ? < coz i can not find it in my english dictioonary

2>also what the meaning of imho ? coz i often read this word on the thread

3> maybe to basic question : market maker is mean who move the currency market ?
or who created the spread in the currency market ?

4> if market marker move the market / can market marker win to move the market againt whole people in the world ?

5> if market maker really can move the market...
hey suma ,
i sent u an email for ur questions , since I think its better to explain it in indonesian k ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
Quoting MaMood
Good Morning fti and Friends!

fti I have seen sometimes that you mentioned Duesseldorf a major player/location. I did not know, that it is that relevant to FX trading. Do you have any further details about Duesseldorf?
Just curious ...

Thanx
yes dssl is funding centre, not player, but big funding centre
Just for Info: The Asian sentiment so far:

0621 GMT [Dow Jones] ASIAN SUMMARY: Regional stock markets were quietly lower early, then wobbled on report that China's banking regulator has issued draft rule to tighten lenders' capital requirements. Report hit when Shanghai was on break, caused mild selloff in offshore FX, stock markets on concerns of post-lunch Shanghai slide. Turns out Shanghai traders were unflustered, such talk's been making the rounds since July; index was +0.7% at midday, briefly dropped into red on reopening but has since bounced, last +0.8%, helping relieve worries for rest of region. S&P/ASX 200 down 2.0%, pressured after Aussie sovereign wealth fund unloaded part of its holdings in Telstra; investors were worried institutional investors would lighten portfolios to pick up Telstra. NZX-50 also weakened by Telstra development, down 0.6%. Nikkei down 1.4%, weighed by autos on end of U.S. cash for clunkers program this Monday. STI down 0.7%, Taiwan down 1.2%, Sensex off 0.2%, Kospi +0.3%, KLCI down 0.1%. DJIA futures down 45 points in screen trade. Philippines markets closed.
[...]


Disclaimer: Be aware of possible COw Dung included ;-)
Quoting fti
yes dssl is funding centre, not player, but big funding centre
Ah I see. Thx.

If my googling is right, the funding center located in Duesseldorf is especially a provider/cooperation partner for CFETS (China Foreign Exchange Trade System National Interbank Funding Center) ....
We are two minutes ahead of some German Figs.

By the way: Have you seen that notice in the FF Calendar explanations?

Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers.
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