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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #8,921
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:42am Aug 20, 2009 2:42am
Hello, I am newish to forex factory and came across this thread just recently. I like the simplicity of the system and I will begin trading it soon.

I have taken the time to read the thread through from the start. No mean feat with so many pages!

About halfway through someone posted that it was recommended by Jacko to use a 100 pip stop loss due to the increased volatility in the market. Is this change to the original system still in force or should I be using a 50 pip stop as stated in the first few posts? I can't find a post changing it.

Thanks
  • #8,922
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:44am Aug 20, 2009 2:44am
Quoting Snr Dinero
Hello, I am newish to forex factory and came across this thread just recently. I like the simplicity of the system and I will begin trading it soon.

I have taken the time to read the thread through from the start. No mean feat with so many pages!

About halfway through someone posted that it was recommended by Jacko to use a 100 pip stop loss due to the increased volatility in the market. Is this change to the original system still in force or should I be using a 50 pip stop as stated in the first few posts? I can't find a post changing it....
Still 100.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #8,923
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:46am Aug 20, 2009 2:46am
Quoting lovejoy80
Current 4H chart. An obvious short opportunity at the 1.4150 round number...near horizontal resistance, trendline resistance and the 50% fib of recent swing high / low (rounded to nearest 'round' number).

The only thing going against this trade from a risk sentiment perspective is rising stock prices in Asia normally means rising european and US stock markets today which is linked with an increase in sentiment and a weaker USD.

However from a technical perspective this is surely an A+ trade...I am in.

http://i29.tinypic.com/xf1etd.jpg...

At 4150? Or 4250? I think it is 4250
  • #8,924
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:48am Aug 20, 2009 2:48am
Quoting LasVahGoose
Still 100.
Thank you for your swift reply.

I have one more quick question. A recent post advocated a short. Surely the main trend is up and it would be more prudent and closer to the system to wait for a move towards 1.41 (a historic support and reistance level) and the rising daily trendline before looking for long positions?
  • #8,925
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:53am Aug 20, 2009 2:53am
Quoting mongreldog66
At 4150? Or 4250? I think it is 4250

Yep was a typo, 1.4250 is what I meant
  • #8,926
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:54am Aug 20, 2009 2:54am
Quoting Snr Dinero
Thank you for your swift reply.

I have one more quick question. A recent post advocated a short. Surely the main trend is up and it would be more prudent and closer to the system to wait for a move towards 1.41 (a historic support and reistance level) and the rising daily trendline before looking for long positions?
I would agree overall we still look long, but we are also sideways if you zoom out a bit. Here is post where we failed to make a new high and started to go lower.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2969380&postcount=8915


I'm no expert, I'm still new at this, so anything I say is at your risk.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #8,927
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:57am Aug 20, 2009 2:57am
Quoting Snr Dinero
Thank you for your swift reply.

I have one more quick question. A recent post advocated a short. Surely the main trend is up and it would be more prudent and closer to the system to wait for a move towards 1.41 (a historic support and reistance level) and the rising daily trendline before looking for long positions?
The main trend on the daily and 4H has been up (looking at 300 periods)...however if you look at the 4H you can see that since beginning of this month we have been in a downwards channel...there is a clear donwards trendline and lower highs...hence why the biggest moves over the last few weeks have been down - this is we are now focussed more on short trades.

However, the price have been moving sideways since end of May (look at the daily) hence we have been taking trades on both directions i.e. from near the extremes of the ranges and/or at support / resistance areas - there are many good areas to go short / long.
  • #8,928
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:59am Aug 20, 2009 2:59am
The chart attached shows my view at the moment. That triangle will need to break one way or the other.

I agree that today will probably show a red candle but personally I think I will wait for tomorrow and look for a long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd triangle.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #8,929
  • Aug 20, 2009 3:02am Aug 20, 2009 3:02am
Quoting lovejoy80
The main trend on the daily and 4H has been up (looking at 300 periods)...however if you look at the 4H you can see that since beginning of this month we have been in a downwards channel...there is a clear donwards trendline and lower highs...hence why the biggest moves over the last few weeks have been down - this is we are now focussed more on short trades.

However, the price have been moving sideways since end of May (look at the daily) hence we have been taking trades on both directions i.e. from near the extremes of the ranges and/or at support...
Sorry, was typing as you posted. You have cleared it up for me nicely. Thank you for your excellent analysis.
  • #8,930
  • Aug 20, 2009 3:35am Aug 20, 2009 3:35am
Quoting Snr Dinero
The chart attached shows my view at the moment. That triangle will need to break one way or the other.

I agree that today will probably show a red candle but personally I think I will wait for tomorrow and look for a long.
Why not trade both? If you have a big enough stop to avoid any whipsaws and false breakouts then are both the short and long trades at the extremes of the triangle not great technical trades to take? These type of trades can be exited very quickly if it is clear a breakout is occuring.

For example, Jacko traded long from near the extreme (but on the way up) on Tuesday and exited yesterday and then re-entered a short...these are easy trades to follow and easy to get out quickly if a breakout does occur (in the opposite direction to the trade).

I favour a breakout to the downside eventually.

If you zoom into the 4H you can see the same traingle but you can also see very clearly the horizontal support / resistance areas in between.
  • #8,931
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:19am Aug 20, 2009 4:19am
Quoting lovejoy80
Why not trade both?

I favour a breakout to the downside eventually.
I see your thinking.

Looking at the weekly chart it would suggest it could be about to head down.

I'll watch for now and consider a trade tomorrow or Monday. Thanks for your help.
  • #8,932
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:23am Aug 20, 2009 4:23am
Hi guys,

Is it possible for someone to post a chart that has a support line on it and what target price should we be looking out for if we are riding this baby down.

Thanks in advance
  • #8,933
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:41am Aug 20, 2009 4:41am
Quoting noobistrader
Hi guys,

Is it possible for someone to post a chart that has a support line on it and what target price should we be looking out for if we are riding this baby down.

Thanks in advance
See my post above for a chart. Next levels are 1.4205 (which it has hit and rebounded...just needs a bit more momentum), then 1.4171. Ultimately looking for it to head down towards 1.4100
  • #8,934
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:57am Aug 20, 2009 4:57am
Quoting lovejoy80
See my post above for a chart. Next levels are 1.4205 (which it has hit and rebounded...just needs a bit more momentum), then 1.4171. Ultimately looking for it to head down towards 1.4100
Hi lovejoy80,

I apologise for my noobness but I suppose 1.4205,1.4171 and 1.4100 are all target price based on round numbers,support and 50% fib?Am I right to say that?

If I am right,can you please tell me what are the respective price to reason.(I stared at the chart and tried matching but just couldn't find them)

Thanks you lovejoy80
  • #8,935
  • Aug 20, 2009 5:31am Aug 20, 2009 5:31am
Quoting noobistrader
Hi lovejoy80,

I apologise for my noobness but I suppose 1.4205,1.4171 and 1.4100 are all target price based on round numbers,support and 50% fib?Am I right to say that?

If I am right,can you please tell me what are the respective price to reason.(I stared at the chart and tried matching but just couldn't find them)

Thanks you lovejoy80
If you've read the thread from the start then I am confused by your question. Use a 100 pip trailing stop loss. There are no targets.

1.4171 is NOT a round number. These numbers are where price has met support and/or resistance in the recent past.
  • #8,936
  • Aug 20, 2009 5:35am Aug 20, 2009 5:35am
Quoting Snr Dinero
If you've read the thread from the start then I am confused by your question. Use a 100 pip trailing stop loss. There are no targets.

1.4171 is NOT a round number. These numbers are where price has met support and/or resistance in the recent past.
Thank you Sne Dinero.

However from Lovejoy80 post,he has said he is looking that the market heads down to 1.4100.I hope he can enlighten me on this?

Thank you
  • #8,937
  • Aug 20, 2009 5:52am Aug 20, 2009 5:52am
Quoting noobistrader
Thank you Sne Dinero.

However from Lovejoy80 post,he has said he is looking that the market heads down to 1.4100.I hope he can enlighten me on this?

Thank you
Fair enough.

I notice he's not online at the moment so I'll give you my interpretation and he can correct me if I have it wrong.

I attached a chart a few posts back. That downwards sloping trendline at the top is holding pretty strong. Draw a horizontal line on your chart at 1.41. Zoom out to the weekly chart and notice how that has held as support and resistance in the past.

Looking at the chart can you tell the most likely direction that the price is going to move to?

After it reaches 1.41 the probabilities of predicting the next move correctly diminish significantly.

Draw horizontal lines in a different colour at the other levels mentioned. Notice how they have acted as support and/or resistance in the nearer past.
  • #8,938
  • Aug 20, 2009 6:18am Aug 20, 2009 6:18am
Quoting Snr Dinero
After it reaches 1.41 the probabilities of predicting the next move correctly diminish significantly.
Draw horizontal lines in a different colour at the other levels mentioned. Notice how they have acted as support and/or resistance in the nearer past.
Another thing I'm looking for is to break that last Lower Lower @ 1.4050 area. A good break below that level would be more evidence of a down trend starting.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #8,939
  • Aug 20, 2009 6:35am Aug 20, 2009 6:35am
If it's going to break lower I'd like to see it retest 1.41 and/or that upwards trendline from below and then go lower.

That could be a big move if it comes off.
  • #8,940
  • Aug 20, 2009 8:07am Aug 20, 2009 8:07am
Quoting Joe T
1) Chart - 4 hour - by the book, correct?
2) Trend - 1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP. - If I were going strictly from this criteria, the clear answer is that we are trending up.

Conclusion: Look for long positions.
Close - but not quite. Start with the Weekly and move down to the 4 hour. If you do that, you should see your strategy change slightly, but also give you a better target/safer price.

Quoting Joe T
3) 50% retrace - I see a recent low point of 1.4045, and a very recent high of 1.4266....
You are too close to the price action right now, check the weekly - draw your fibs and revisit this.

Quoting Joe T
What I still haven't quite determined is how to enter:...
Personally, I set price alerts, not pending orders. I prefer to watch price for 30min - a few hours to see how it does around the Fib & S/R levels. This is more of a personal trading comfort & one you'll have to try out to find what best works for you.
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