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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #8,901
  • Aug 19, 2009 12:26pm Aug 19, 2009 12:26pm
As long as you enter upon pullbacks of a CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE TREND then you won't go far wrong, either with the initial entry, or, if needed, the a/h.
  • #8,902
  • Aug 19, 2009 12:33pm Aug 19, 2009 12:33pm
Quoting Interceptor
Hi Joe
Just my two penny's worth;

Chart 1 = trending upwards
Chart 2 = WAS trending down, WAS trending up, NOW ranging sideways
I value all insight so I can get a better understanding. My previous post was, again, referring to Page 1 of this thread:

"1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.

2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.

3. If you are still confused, print it off and show it to a 5 year old...they will get it right EVERY time...LOL"

I'm not a 5 year old, but I often act like one... and to me, both of those qualify as "going up."

In order to see an entire chart that says otherwise, one has to go to lower time frames.


I'm really not trying to be thick here, I'm trying to figure out exactly how much these basic directives have been tweaked.

I guess right now, I'd be playing a long position on trades, but simply waiting for the right retrace. I was staying out of the market, but it looked like a 50% retrace at 1.4140 was waiting for me. Looking back, a good play would have been to wait for price to break through that point, and then had I implemented my "wait for a 50 point bounce off bottom" plan, I would have been in at 1.4138. a 100 pip stop would have yielded 100 pips or so.

I imagine many of you are in a position again as we speak after the latest retrace. Looks like I'll need to wait this out.
  • #8,903
  • Aug 19, 2009 12:43pm Aug 19, 2009 12:43pm
Quoting Joe T
"But I am also starting to notice that it doesn't really matter anymore where I buy or sell.
The anti-hedging strategy is FAR, FAR, FAR more important. "

50% retrace is certainly an important element, and perhaps should be the primary focus for a new trader....
You are clearly missing the point, and I don't understand why you want to argue this as it really is spelled out pretty clear.

Check out Post #4:

1. buy/ sell ONLY in the direction of the major trend and
2. buy/sell on dips.(Use support lines to guide you as to price...also "round" numbers ... I also use the 50% Fib ratio..)
3. bank your profits

Study #2 closely.
If you follow those rules, you can see why Jacko mentions the AH is more important, but that doesn't mean you throw these rules out the window and just buy/sell 'wherever' and expect the AH to bail you out.
  • #8,904
  • Aug 19, 2009 12:46pm Aug 19, 2009 12:46pm
Joe T, you're right, what was written in the first pages has been changed by Jacko. As you said, that was for a trending market, and it doesn't completely apply now with all this uncertainty and ranging conditions going on. For example, we often ask Jacko why he thinks price will go down when from the chart price appears to be going up, and he comes up with answers that he pulls out of god knows where, and yet he turns out right, more often than not. Jacko also uses a lot of fundamental info and insight to make his guesses of where price is likely to go, so this adds one more layer of complexity.

So i suppose just understanding and trying to apply the stuff here will not be easy, it also takes a lot of deeper understanding of the market and price dynamics, which comes only with a lot of experience.


Making things short, things aren't as simple as they may appear to be by reading the first pages of the topic (not now, at least; when the market starts trending again they may get easier, i think), so you're right on spot.
freedom
  • #8,905
  • Aug 19, 2009 1:00pm Aug 19, 2009 1:00pm
Quoting equilibrium6
Joe T, you're right, what was written in the first pages has been changed by Jacko. As you said, that was for a trending market, and it doesn't completely apply now with all this uncertainty and ranging conditions going on. For example, we often ask Jacko why he thinks price will go down when from the chart price appears to be going up, and he comes up with answers that he pulls out of god knows where, and yet he turns out right, more often than not. Jacko also uses a lot of fundamental info and insight to make his guesses of where price is likely...
I disagree, even from the post this morning Jacko talks about 50% fibs and even multiple 50% fib targets. The main difference is the 4 Hour chart and changing to 100 stop from 50. He has still been using AH trades, waiting for pullbacks & looking for weakness/strength at those levels like he has for over a year. I don't mind mentioning this because Jacko himself mentioned this on the thread a few months ago.

The method is pretty much the same, and he even compliments everyone that has followed this method due to the amount of success even in the hardest trading environment.

What part of the method has changed from the beginning of the thread that wouldn't apply today, besides the adjusted figures mentioned?
  • #8,906
  • Aug 19, 2009 1:11pm Aug 19, 2009 1:11pm
Jacko didn't update his blog since 3am. I wonder if anything has happened to him? Just being concerned, man.
  • #8,907
  • Aug 19, 2009 1:17pm Aug 19, 2009 1:17pm
Quoting psyber85
Jacko didn't update his blog since 3am. I wonder if anything has happened to him? Just being concerned, man.
He said he has the flu....

Get well soon Wayne
  • #8,908
  • Aug 19, 2009 1:28pm Aug 19, 2009 1:28pm
Quoting dwildes
You are clearly missing the point, and I don't understand why you want to argue this as it really is spelled out pretty clear.

Check out Post #4:

1. buy/ sell ONLY in the direction of the major trend and
2. buy/sell on dips.(Use support lines to guide you as to price...also "round" numbers ... I also use the 50% Fib ratio..)
3. bank your profits

Study #2 closely.
If you follow those rules, you can see why Jacko mentions the AH is more important, but that doesn't mean you throw these rules out the window and just buy/sell...

There must be something in the way I write things that leads you to form conclusions that I don't intend. I never said it's all or nothing, or that I'm "throwing these rules out the window."

I'm trying to figure all this out, and asking honest questions, and explaining things as I see them and understand them.

I'll leave it at that.
  • #8,909
  • Aug 19, 2009 1:45pm Aug 19, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting Joe T
There must be something in the way I write things that leads you to form conclusions that I don't intend. I never said it's all or nothing, or that I'm "throwing these rules out the window."

I'm trying to figure all this out, and asking honest questions, and explaining things as I see them and understand them.

I'll leave it at that.
The problem from my perspective is it appears you are defending yourself & the actions you took rather than comparing what you done with the rules of the method.

Tell you what - let's start over with a 'by the book' trade and analyze that one. Everyone will be better served that way because the trade you are comparing against wasn't a good one.

You have to pick the trade though and everyone can give their feedback as it unfolds.
  • #8,910
  • Aug 19, 2009 2:16pm Aug 19, 2009 2:16pm
Quoting kodflakes
Sounds so easy huh goose, simplicity is one of the things that most succesful systems have in common
One can say it seems to be a a pattern.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #8,911
  • Aug 19, 2009 2:22pm Aug 19, 2009 2:22pm
Quoting Joe T
Thanks for the comments....
The market is sideways, pull up and zoom out on the daily chart (Since July).
A trend can be as simple as LH's & LL's.

on the 4Hr you have a High @ 8/5, a swing low around 8/12, A lower high around 8/13, and lower low around 8/17, and right now you have a lower high.

You have to be able to adapt to changing market conditions, that is the lesson. A perfectly rigid rule with no flexibility isn't going to work here since this is a discretionary system.
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Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #8,912
  • Aug 19, 2009 2:31pm Aug 19, 2009 2:31pm
Quoting dwildes
The problem from my perspective is it appears you are defending yourself & the actions you took rather than comparing what you done with the rules of the method.

Tell you what - let's start over with a 'by the book' trade and analyze that one. Everyone will be better served that way because the trade you are comparing against wasn't a good one.

You have to pick the trade though and everyone can give their feedback as it unfolds.



While I disagree with your conclusion of the intention of my posts, I'm tired of that conversation. So, OK, this is my perspective on the current situation and the next potential trade set-up:

1) Chart - 4 hour - by the book, correct?
2) Trend - 1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP. - If I were going strictly from this criteria, the clear answer is that we are trending up.

Conclusion: Look for long positions.

3) 50% retrace - I see a recent low point of 1.4045, and a very recent high of 1.4266. Need to let this play out, to see if it could go higher. If it doesn't, I'd re-calculate the current 50% retrace level of 1.4156 as necessary.

4) The recent price run-up broke what had been a previous trend line, and what had turned into a resistance line at around 1.4150. It was a previous support trend line, so this seems to coordinate well with the current 50% retrace.

5) Round number = look for a buy at 1.1450 (closest round number to 50% retrace and trend line).


What I still haven't quite determined is how to enter: Buy Limit? So, here's exactly what I would plan for this trade: Since there is a fairly strong trend line that was a support level near the 50% Fib, I would watch price once it reaches the 1.4150 expecting a bounce. I would buy in at 1.4170 if there is an immediate bounce. If price penetrates by more than 20 pips I will wait for a drop to 1.4100, anticipating a drop to the next trend line that I see on my Daily Chart. In the event that price touches 1.4100, I will monitor price, and then buy at the point where it has rebounded 50 pips from the minimum price.

I will trail price by 100 pips.

This assumes no major news releases are scheduled.


If any of the above deviates from the basics, I welcome feedback. So, I've "planned the trade." Now, I would "trade the plan" under normal circumstances. Since I'm asking for feedback, there may be reasons to convince me that there are issues with the approach.
  • #8,913
  • Aug 19, 2009 2:33pm Aug 19, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
You have to be able to adapt to changing market conditions, that is the lesson. A perfectly rigid rule with no flexibility isn't going to work here since this is a discretionary system.
I can accept that, but feel I sometimes get mixed messages. For example, I'm told to trade for six months exactly as presented by one person, and then told that I need to adapt and be flexible by others. When first starting, I prefer more rigidity. But only if it works.
  • #8,914
  • Aug 19, 2009 2:41pm Aug 19, 2009 2:41pm
Quoting Joe T
I can accept that, but feel I sometimes get mixed messages. For example, I'm told to trade for six months exactly as presented by one person, and then told that I need to adapt and be flexible by others. When first starting, I prefer more rigidity. But only if it works.
You want some rigidity check out a more mechanical system. This may not be a compatible method for your personality. Nothing wrong with that, everyone needs to find what they are comfortable with.

Trend Following methods are definitely not for everyone and it wouldn't suprise me if a minority of traders are trend followers, but they are some of the most successful.

There are many ways to trade, try and find a way that works for you.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #8,915
  • Aug 19, 2009 3:37pm Aug 19, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
You want some rigidity check out a more mechanical system. This may not be a compatible method for your personality. Nothing wrong with that, everyone needs to find what they are comfortable with.

Trend Following methods are definitely not for everyone and it wouldn't suprise me if a minority of traders are trend followers, but they are some of the most successful.

There are many ways to trade, try and find a way that works for you.
I am trying. Working on a few things simultaneously to try and find a comfort level. I don't want to just give up on this without an honest effort to understand what it takes. It may very well not be for me, but once I work through a few trades, I may feel differently.
  • #8,916
  • Aug 19, 2009 3:49pm Aug 19, 2009 3:49pm
Quoting Joe T
I am trying. Working on a few things simultaneously to try and find a comfort level. I don't want to just give up on this without an honest effort to understand what it takes. It may very well not be for me, but once I work through a few trades, I may feel differently.
Sounds reasonable, it takes awhile to learn the ins and outs of a method. So I think it's great you will give it time, as you should when learning anything, IMO.

The thing I think that makes learning this method extra difficult at this point and time, is the fact we are in a sideways market, which is when trend following methods struggle since there isn't a trend to follow.

Now, what I have learned from Jacko is with some modification (a tweak here and tweak there) to the method you can pull money out the market when it's sideways.

In my previous post when that HIGH was not broken and price made that swing low and Lower High, that was a clue the trend may not be going up any more. Now we 'assume' we are in a down trend and look to break the lower low, and continue the LH & LL pattern.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #8,917
  • Aug 19, 2009 5:35pm Aug 19, 2009 5:35pm
Quoting psyber85
Jacko didn't update his blog since 3am. I wonder if anything has happened to him? Just being concerned, man.
He has the flu. But he got out of bed to SMS us to close our trades at a 115 pip profit. By my calculation, it was 2.15am in the morning for him and he was sick. Then he sent us another SMS to open another trade later. He looks after us turtles.
We have had 6 weeks of winner trades without a loss.
  • #8,918
  • Aug 19, 2009 9:14pm Aug 19, 2009 9:14pm
Quoting jamiewhite
He has the flu. But he got out of bed to SMS us to close our trades at a 115 pip profit. By my calculation, it was 2.15am in the morning for him and he was sick. Then he sent us another SMS to open another trade later. He looks after us turtles.
We have had 6 weeks of winner trades without a loss.

He is awesome. Period.
  • #8,919
  • Aug 19, 2009 10:41pm Aug 19, 2009 10:41pm
Quoting daringdave
Yo newbietrader101.

I saw this in another post. http://www.forexfactory.com/t/13081/i-met-a-great-trader-i-1.html

This is an awesome post. You started this in 2007 and I see that you are still around. Have you been to see Jacko again?
Can someone tell me how to contact newbietrader101 ? I want to talk to him about this http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=13081&page=1
  • #8,920
  • Aug 20, 2009 1:34am Aug 20, 2009 1:34am
Current 4H chart. An obvious short opportunity at the 1.4150 round number...near horizontal resistance, trendline resistance and the 50% fib of recent swing high / low (rounded to nearest 'round' number).

The only thing going against this trade from a risk sentiment perspective is rising stock prices in Asia normally means rising european and US stock markets today which is linked with an increase in sentiment and a weaker USD.

However from a technical perspective this is surely an A+ trade...I am in.

http://i29.tinypic.com/xf1etd.jpg
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