London Open Breakout-M30

Thank for the back testing. TP1 at 30 pips is the most profitbale, but would it be profitable to trail as suggested in the original method or would it just be best to take profits a 30 pips fixed?

nice work and thanks for your job
which stop loss did you use?

i can see the 30pip tp results were the best

HI Triger, thanks for all your testing. are you going to run this on demo now or what are your plans..

By the way did you use baz stop loss = Stop loss is opposite of 30 minute candle, or 50 pips if 30 min candle > 50 pips.

Moxie:nerd:

to Moxie:
yes my Sl where at opposite of 30 minute candle in all the trades

to jtraderco:

SL=opposite of 30 minute candle

and you are right the 30pips of TP are the best results

I'm currently looking to see if we could have better results if we are looking at 15 minute candle for the london open,I'll post the results when I finishe

to bar:

i don't know about the trail suggestion.I'm ussing this method to add to my account easy$$$. All I can say it's that after the backtesting the 30pip fixed amount of TP is the best

Hi All,

Very interesting thread. Im going to trade it on a Demo account for a while and see how it goes.

One area I need clarification on though is the stop losses.... What do you mean by stop loss opposite of the 30 min candle?

Also in post 5 http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...31&postcount=5 it looks to me like the trend set in that 30 min period was down. Why did you go against that trend?

One last question..........What is T/S?

Incase you hadn't guessed im quite new at this game but eager to learn :-)

hi mind to give the 0800-0830 timing in GMT?

thankz

I believe that is GMT.

Just for back-testing purpose I have modified hans123 (a very well known automatic trading system by Milan Volf) to work under Bazza's conditions.
Some interesting results.
I believe the strategy is very good but sure must be fine tuned for better performance.
Here is the code you can run on GBPUSD 5M (less then 30M) ans see backtest results.
SL is set as High-Low pips, TP is 30pips, and trading time is set to 9:30 (GMT +2 Rome Time) according to my broker time, so adjust it to your one.

It should be nice to apply ashane's idea and see what happens.

Best regards to you all.

Attached results and mq4 file to play with.

Thank you giaras, great job!

I looked at some of the results and I see several points that may have to be addressed:

(1) Should there only be trades in one direction, or if you get stopped out you enter in the opposite direction? At the moment, postions are opened in both directions and that may not be a good idea.

(2) When should pending orders expire? At the moment, it looks like that the whole session is OK. It may be better not to enter if there hasn't been a clear breakout within a certain time after opening of the market. I would think that the idea is to catch momentum at the beginning of the market, not later on. Counting on a valid breakout hours and hours later may be a gamble.

(3) London Open: All those systems focus on London Open. Looking at the charts I wonder if it is not better to enter an hour earlier at European Open (Frankfurt). Perhaps this is why some of the old systems have faded as Evesloth reported. While the GBP was a major relative player in the old days, the Euro has all other major European currencies combined and they start an hour before London.

I set ALL SINGLE pending orders to expire at 6PM GMT. This allows me to go off about my daily business and collect pips during the US session. Yesterday my order expired at 6pm with 30 pips profit. Somedays your order may NOT trigger--I call these Non Triggered Trade Days in my trading journal...I'd rather suffer these than a loss!!!

I also use 100 SMA to keep me out of rangy markets: If the 0800GMT candle goes 25 pips or less near the 100 SMA=NO TRADE THAT DAY.

Todays 0800GMT candle was only 10-15 pips from it, hence NO TRADE! Excellent little filter.

ashane

Hi all,
I have done some arrangements on the code previously posted trying adapting to Bubo and Ashane suggestions. Then I have run the MT optimizer on the code and here are some very first results.

V02 release notes:
- Added expiration time to pending orders as a parameter. Actually set to 20:00 (gmt+2) as suggested.
- Added some main trend analyzer, based on simple macd(12,26) over M15 time frame over or lower zero at call time. Then we open just one pending order according to trend indication as suggested.

Very first results:
If nothing wrong no great improve in PF (1.16 instead of previous 1.13) but better drowdown from 45% to 27% (not so bed this). Try yourself with attached code.

Optimization:
I have run an optimization over the period feb,22 - ago,15 GBPUSD 5M
over this parameters:
- breakout hours and minutes from 8:00 to 11:30
- high/low bars range breakout from 2 to 16 (one bar is 30M so from 30M to 8 hours)
- order expiring time from 12 to 23
- TP from 25 to 90
- FixedStopLoss if = 0 use channel width else use fixed SL from 10 to 90

Interesting results from this run:
- best break out reference hour: 8:30 (not 9:30)
- best stop loss fixed at 30
- best tp at 35 (this is probably due to TP/SL ratio greater then one as in all good money management text)

You can try to play with the code, find out bugs, try to give other suggestions.

A question for Ashane: which time frame are you using in your strategy ? which are your entry timing and channel length ?

For Bubo, following momentum is not so easy with running pending orders. Maybe we should shortening expire time during run-time ?

Here the code (V02 the new one and V02_opt the same one with optimized parameters) and here's results:





Have a nice trade
Giampiero

I enter my trade at 0830GMT EXACTLY & use ONLY 30M charts using 0.2 SAR in ONE direction.

I also AVOID FRIDAYS with this system, as its the lowest pip collection day of the week--usually pro traders are counting their weekly profits on this day!

hey guys I have an issue about the time,I may be rong on my backtesting results b/c of this.

The london open is at: 7:00 GMT
My local time is: GMT+2
An I use FxPro as my broker.

This beeind the date resluts that I must look at the candel from 9:00-9:30 my local time?

I'm right?

London opens at 8.00 GMT while probably you are at GMT +1 (CET Central Europen Time - paris time)
But now we are on summer time and so they are +1, so you are GMT+2.
So, according to this thread, you should point at 9/9:30 (CET) candle, that is 8/8:30 london time candle. This is my understanding, hope to be right.
Anyway my backtesting are showing me 8:30 (CET) as a better entry hour for this pair.

regards

giaras,

great progress, thank you for your work!

it is interesting to see that you conclude also that one hour earlier may be better.

the question is still open how long pending orders should remain active, and if they should be taken in both directions or only in one and then cancel the other.

personally, i tend to think that it is better if they are not open beyond the open of the NY session, because that is not what the initial idea of the London open momentum was all about, and i would think that going in only one direction is better. but all of that would need to be shown with data. opinions of any experienced london open traders?

regarding directionality: it is a tempting idea to put in directional filters. if this is done in the EA, it would be great if these filters could be turned on or off. personally, i find it difficult to see good directional indicators - even more so, the whole point of the London breakout is to not predict the direction but be ready for the expansion of volatility and whatever the new day brings. again, please prove me wrong because i like to see anything that improves the results.

for further development of the EA, the next step would be to go in with multiple positions and set different TP. i would suggest to follow evsloth's idea and only go in with 2 positions and close them one after another. simplicity is good, and a 3rd position could always be added later.

nice work. i will try on demo. thanks.

Bubo,

Thanks for the OTO closing time tip. All my SINGLE orders are now set to close at 1400GMT this week--the NYSE open; My 1 winning order last week closed at 13.30GMT, so I like to give my order some space to fully bring home the bacon..I'll get back to you on results this week???

ashane

Time zones seem quite an issue. London opens at 0800 gmt ONLY during NON Daylight savings.

Thanks Ashane, thats what this is all about, brainstorming brainy people
:-)

Bazza, Its a pleasure to tweak your system that little bit better ))

The FOREX Market is designed & based on two human emotion as you may know, FEAR & GREED, market fluctuate by these two.
One is defensive (Fear), one is offensive (Greed). You better have a balance respecting to your norms, values, goals, risk tolerance, capital etc...

As Bubo said, this strategy is a One-Time London-Break-Out-Entry , The beauty of this strategy is that It balances your Greed & Fear and It forces you to trade one time, and a good one, it shows you that you do not need to trade every day and every time, it shows you too keep your risk low by analysing both technical and fundamental daily signals.

As a user autosignature says: There is no Holy Grail, and therefore any effort expended in it's search is energy diverted from profits today.

So come, let us not celebrate the Holy Grail, but celebrate our energies in seeking profits together ))