Thexder's journey to(ward?) freedom

Here's how I'm navigating the sideways stuff.
There's no better time to use S/R especially when it's clearly defined like this.
With the first move bouncing around sideways I waited for a sign of a break from either end and it came at the first shown area for a long. I only got break even because I'm trying to catch something bigger.

The second one was a second long attempt after the first one came back too far. It stopped at support after a big down surge and then consolidated with an IB giving a lot of room to try another long move before an expected obstacle so I've been holding that the rest of the day. It's just starting to take off but I might only get break even from it yet, especially if the sideways stuff isn't done.

Hey Thexder,

in the first blue highlighted area that is somewhat obscured by the white arrow.... what was your signal to go long?

Nice job.

The strong up move followed by two inside bars showed great volatility followed by indecision ready to explode either back down to retrace or on upward to break out since it was near the top of the resistance line it's been hammering. Something was about to happen and I was anticipating a long breakout before then so I took it as a long entry. I would have either taken a long from some other formation near the bottom of the channel hoping to at least make it back to the top, or a setup like this "basing" near the top in anticipation of breaking out.

I don't normally like inside bars less than daily but I do use them as "second opinions" to a more dominant opinion if I have one such as supporting a break out of a consolidation that's about to occur or confirming a continuation after the break out. Other than that, I will probably consider them as reversals if they form right after an abnormally long bar (like the second blue area), but in the first setup those inside bars formed only after another small up bar, not right after the big up bar, so a reversal short wasn't a good feeling for how I use the bars.

Got stopped again in more sideways action and was brave enough for an inside bar again as shown. THis time it was another semi long down bar and then the inside bar off a support. Other than being an inside bar after a long one I chose it because I'm still long biased and this time I could get in at the bottom of the channel instead of the top, and the IB itself looked like a pin so the big down bar had pulled back a little, re-tested its low for a double bottom with the IB, then closed as a pin type shape. I figured there was a strong enough reason to go long or take the loss with the tight stop. Now I'm up +60 and again sitting at break even. Maybe this is the one?

With the "trend" being down I wanted a continuation or else a clear reversal like a few higher highs/lows or a strong bullish single reversal bar. I got a continuation down instead.

With all the sideways dormancy action I needed to see life coming into it by either starting to move up a bit and then give a sign to go short, or for it to just go short and then give me a way in.

It suddenly woke up and dropped, then gave a good inside bar so I took it in my short bias direction. Since things obviously had just woken up, being only 30 minute bars I took the IB because it was a true consolidation period rather than an idle meaningless bar.

Best trade in a while. Effortless.

With the weird spikes I couldn't decide on a bias direction so I waited for something to become clear in some wave movements. I saw that there was a support forming at what used to be a resistance area and then a small consolidation formed with a few inside bars just below an area that had just been broken a little from a bunch of sideways bars with similar lows. After falling through those parallel bars and then consolidating, it was time for a break out one way or the other as time of day started pointing toward trading time.

There was a sudden movement upward with strong looking green so I took a long break and now I'm up over +90.

Down momentum looked stronger so I took a short from support breaking down. At break even after being up 25 so no loss if it doesn't take hold.

When the H4 pin short pulled back I watched lower time frames for a bearish sentiment to get back in short.

I'm short biased from the daily looking like a bunch of lows are just now being compromised and the current price action being a possible minor pull back upward to secure a possible big down move.

So I am attempting to get in with this setup. It's at break even and set to run free while I sleep now.

so presumably you've been stopped out by now?

I noticed, looking at the weekly, that it is getting near a solid looking trend-line, will you take this into consideration?

I only ask because you said you had a short bias at the moment

Steve.

Yeah I was stopped out but then I got back in short just by gambling I suppose but going on my instincts. Sometimes I do that if I feel the move is still good but it just pulled back too far and re-tested entry point. I might drop down as low as M5 and look for some price action to get back in with a tight stop or else just watch the momentum itself without a proper PA setup - if things are moving clean and distinctly trending, as in nice surge of strong obvious up trend bars 3 or 5 in a row and then a new strong down bar, instead of a bunch of sideways random stuff, I will take it as a good time to get into some action with momentum.

In this screen shot I drew 3 lines on the daily chart. The blue line is where I got my short bias from. Ignoring anything longer term like the obvious big double top going on, I just see this blue area that was hit 4 times as a support area and at the time I was taking the short I think it had broken below and was coming up to test it from beneath, so to me that was a good reason to look for a short and to try to get back in if I got stopped. I usually only look at the recent past because in the long run it may follow whatever big signal there is like the double top, but it can do anything in between as well and there's lots of trading to be done while waiting for that bigger setup.

So that brings me to the weekly 45 degree trend line which I put in yellow. This could be a point to expect a bounce upward, or a break down and re-test for another short but again this is a longer term issue, it could bounce up from there and go sideways for 2 weeks giving good moves on M30 but barely anything visible on the weekly chart. So I don't even look that far ahead when doing this M30 stuff.

The Orange line is the next obstacle I saw in line after a short from the blue area. This is the next area of clear support from a bunch of bar low touches and sure enough look where the daily bar stopped after it broke down below the blue - it touched the orange area. This is how I do my analysis. I'm really trading the daily chart I guess but using M30 to get in more often rather than sitting and waiting for daily single bar patterns that may take too long to come or never do come. I do take those when they come but in the meantime I like to be always active if there's something good going on.

Tonight's trade was based on a daily short bias from a Friday pin and an entry on a horizontal resistance touch (leap of faith) on M30. There was a gap past the daily pin entry price on the open after the weekend so what do we know about price that could help figure out what to do to get into the pin?
1. Gaps usually close fast
2. Most breakouts involve a pull back and touch/test of the break out area. If you've ever tried to put a stop somewhere just behind a key area on the chart, you're familiar with the frustration of barely getting stopped out on a pull back to there, only to see it continue on. So you know if you take an entry at such a key area and it is a pull back from a break out before, then price is probably only just coming back close to that area and not much beyond unless the trend has changed. In this case the pull back is to the horizontal line on the M30 Friday chart which was broken out of over the weekend and on Sunday a pull back up to there began. If I wanted to trust this as a resistance that will hold with the short bias and I take a short near there, I can put a stop close by and it should be safe.

When I saw the gap I watched to see if it would start to close and it did. When I saw it reach the resistance from M30 created Friday I kept watching to see how strong the up move appeared to be at that point of contact. This is where I would decide if it's just a bounce or if it's going to possibly hang around or even create a bigger up move. My experience suggested it was going to go short with the daily momentum so when I felt it was going to drop again rather than continue up, I blindly went short with a tight stop. I did this around just below 152.00 about 4 hours into the session after the initial up move barely touched the resistance line, then started to go down, came back but didn't quite make it as far up, hung around, and I got in with a 30 stop which would get me back out if it suddenly spiked up above the resistance. After showing so much trouble getting up there for several hours I was willing to trust the level with all things factored in.

My first watch point for a target was around 150.90 and it blew past no problem. Now I'm well into profit around +180 and I put an auto trail on it while I go to bed for a few hours. If I'm still in when I get up I'll see if there's anything to trail manually behind and see if it will run even more.

Tonight's trade is a long from the daily pin bias. I didn't want to take the break of the pin itself if possible so I watched lower time frames to see what was happening and if a long break was a strong move and maybe I could find an early entry. I got in early and have been up to +70 so far, obviously set for break even.

The time frame I used doesn't matter, I was switching between 30 and 5 min for clarity and was mostly watching how the evening unfolded. First I saw the recent high from the end of yesterday (which is lower than the daily pin high and a better place to get in long) so I observed for any break outs of that better price high. A straight break out is always risky to me so when it first started to breach that high I just watched to see if it failed or held strongly. It stayed high and began doing the consolidation thing in a rising triangle with a constant upper horizontal resistance and higher lows, which some call "basing" near the high. But even then, a break after the basing isn't good enough because it's still just an initial break out of some preset area.

I want a break out, pull back, and continuation. That's what I got. After the long break from the basing, I saw it finally start to move more strongly up, it came back and touched the entry, then I just wanted any excuse to go long because I had my daily long bias, two short time frame break outs and now a pull back and price action staying above the break out level. I went long on the break of the inside bar shown and set my stop tight enough to allow reasonable fluctuations based on the swing range at the time, then I just went to break even when it took off.

Been a while.

Triple top, consolidation, break out, re-test, price action, short.

Got in early on duplicate setup on lower time frame giving a 20 pip advantage. Set for break even although not much breathing room but with the recent down flow it may be harder to go higher than lower so I prefer a protection plan going counter trend.

That's what I'm talking about.

Looking at fibs recently with a target extension of 100%, I pulled a fib across this recent activity and just made the target. This would be my Swing Fib adaptation from the Bobokus thread except I'm using hourly USD CHF right now instead of cable and targeting 100% instead of 38.2%

So why is this fib pulled here? After a big move a correction could be expected so observing the hourly movement it made a low and started pulling back up so there was a place to pull a fib. The pullback upward pierced 61.8% but closed back below and then went for the short break.

From the daily perspective a resistance point has been reached again so a bounce back down is likely at least to some degree so the fibs were confluence to enter short with a purely Support/Resistance setup.