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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #2,681
  • Aug 1, 2009 1:51am Aug 1, 2009 1:51am
yesterday second long 1.5229
  • #2,682
  • Aug 1, 2009 8:56am Aug 1, 2009 8:56am
Quoting the2001km
Previous shorts are in cash due to this pull back. Except the first level at 15205 is still on hold.


To Mackus,

The Deutsche Bank you are saying, is it DBFX?
Yep. Have any experience with them?
  • #2,683
  • Aug 1, 2009 11:58am Aug 1, 2009 11:58am
Quoting mackus
Yep. Have any experience with them?
Sorry I never try it.
I just read some reviews from forexpeacearmy.com.
  • #2,684
  • Aug 15, 2009 6:37am Aug 15, 2009 6:37am
Anyone taking trades over the past 2 weeks? I just got my account switched over so I'll be up and running at the open on Sunday.
  • #2,685
  • Aug 16, 2009 8:41pm Aug 16, 2009 8:41pm
I used to have 3 short levels last 2 weeks at 1.5205,1.5280,1.5330.
Close all now in cash except the 1st level at 1.5205.
I reset the 2nd level at 1.5290 now.
  • #2,686
  • Edited 11:18am Aug 17, 2009 4:01am | Edited 11:18am
I don't think this system is even worth to test.

Buying 1 LOT of USD/CHF and 1.5 LOT (well it should be 1.4lot as of Aug 2009) of EUR/USD or selling them is same as buying/selling one lot of EUR/CHF.


It is NOT even hedging. It is simply buying(or selling) EUR/CHF. You make money when EUR/CHF goes up. You simply lose money when EUR/CHF goes down.

Remember.
A/B X B/C = A/C

1 lot of USD/CHF = 1.5 LOT of EUR/USD (it is now 1.41 lot as of Aug 2009 though)

Thus. 1 LOT OF USD/CHF X 1.5 LOT of EUR/USD = 1 LOT OF EUR/CHF



You don't need a degree in mathmatics to do FOREX but I think at least you need to understand grade 9 math.

This system is not even hedged at all... It is simply buying/selling EUR/CHF.
When I buy it, it moves down. When I sell it, it moves up.
  • #2,687
  • Aug 18, 2009 6:08am Aug 18, 2009 6:08am
Quoting pujolshomerun
I don't think this system is even worth to test.

Buying 1 LOT of USD/CHF and 1.5 LOT (well it should be 1.4lot as of Aug 2009) of EUR/USD or selling them is same as buying/selling one lot of EUR/CHF.


It is NOT even hedging. It is simply buying(or selling) EUR/CHF. You make money when EUR/CHF goes up. You simply lose money when EUR/CHF goes down.

Remember.
A/B X B/C = A/C

1 lot of USD/CHF = 1.5 LOT of EUR/USD (it is now 1.41 lot as of Aug 2009 though)

Thus. 1 LOT OF USD/CHF X 1.5 LOT of EUR/USD = 1 LOT OF EUR/CHF...
Most of the time that is true. However, if you demo or trade this for a while you'll notice that there are instances where the "hedge" as its referred to in this thread doesn't move exactly in tune with the "cross". Sometimes the E/C will only move a few pips but the E/U will move quite a bit and put your position in profit earlier than expected. However, it also works the other way. Every once in a while the E/C will move the 40 pips you're looking for but the combined hedge is not in profit yet. I believe its been mentioned before but in my opinion this phenomenon is due to the difference in daily range of the two pairs and that they are not negatively correlated 100% of the time.
  • #2,688
  • Aug 18, 2009 11:09pm Aug 18, 2009 11:09pm
Quoting mackus
Most of the time that is true. However, if you demo or trade this for a while you'll notice that there are instances where the "hedge" as its referred to in this thread doesn't move exactly in tune with the "cross". Sometimes the E/C will only move a few pips but the E/U will move quite a bit and put your position in profit earlier than expected. However, it also works the other way. Every once in a while the E/C will move the 40 pips you're looking for but the combined hedge is not in profit yet. I believe its been mentioned before but in my...
It's not most of the time. It is all the time.

You mentioned
-------------------
Sometimes the E/C will only move a few pips but the E/U will move quite a bit and put your position in profit earlier than expected.
------------------------

It is because U/C also moved the opposite direction of E/C.

(E/U X U/C) / E/C = 1 - spreads


Check it always.... It is always same.

If it ever becomes different than 1 (without spreads) , people will be millionaires by just exchanging those currencies.

It's not most of the time. It is all the time..


If you trade 1 lot of EUR/USD and 1.5 (1.4 now) USD/CHF, your profit or loss will always same as just trading EUR/CHF. Actually, it is less than just trading EUR/CHF because of the spreads of the two pairs.

If you think you made profit, that is because EUR/CHF moved to the same direction you traded.
When I buy it, it moves down. When I sell it, it moves up.
  • #2,689
  • Aug 19, 2009 3:38am Aug 19, 2009 3:38am
Quoting pujolshomerun
I don't think this system is even worth to test.

Buying 1 LOT of USD/CHF and 1.5 LOT (well it should be 1.4lot as of Aug 2009) of EUR/USD or selling them is same as buying/selling one lot of EUR/CHF.


It is NOT even hedging. It is simply buying(or selling) EUR/CHF. You make money when EUR/CHF goes up. You simply lose money when EUR/CHF goes down.

Remember.
A/B X B/C = A/C

1 lot of USD/CHF = 1.5 LOT of EUR/USD (it is now 1.41 lot as of Aug 2009 though)

Thus. 1 LOT OF USD/CHF X 1.5 LOT of EUR/USD = 1 LOT OF EUR/CHF



You don't need...
something you didnt consider
manipulation of market makers..... at that moment you should take your profit...
however i can say from observation that this hedge( e/u, u/c) moves more than e/c in pip value........
correlation is also not 100% and it is somewhere between 85 to 95 %
there are times that one breaks s/r or pivot but the other one fails.
  • #2,690
  • Aug 19, 2009 5:00am Aug 19, 2009 5:00am
Quoting pujolshomerun
It's not most of the time. It is all the time.

You mentioned
-------------------
Sometimes the E/C will only move a few pips but the E/U will move quite a bit and put your position in profit earlier than expected.
------------------------

It is because U/C also moved the opposite direction of E/C.

(E/U X U/C) /...
Thanks.
  • #2,691
  • Aug 19, 2009 7:51am Aug 19, 2009 7:51am
Hedge the pairs is less stress than directly on the cross.
Even the cross moves against me, I can exit the profit pair then open 2nd level on the loss pair. Once the loss pair pulls back, I exit in a small loss or B/E. (This mm I learnt from NanningBob in other thread.) Overall the trades, it will still make me in profit.
Personally, I like to trade hedge pairs sometimes, because it gives me much less pressure than on the cross.
  • #2,692
  • Aug 19, 2009 11:22am Aug 19, 2009 11:22am
Guys, maybe I repeat myself but this para-trading system unfortunately does not meet the criteria of a true professional trading system, maybe we can talk about some good idea of "position management"... but we are still very far from a professional approach!!

Forgive the intrusion but we can not think of approaching the market without knowing at least what we're doing...
This attitude has the characteristics of amateur, and the maximum you can achieve is a balance of your budget (if all goes well), forgive me, but you're on the wrong track if I can give you some advice!!

However, it is almost time to buy (I mean the couple EurChf, or both negatively correlated pairs as you prefer)... these signs are for the medium-long term, I think we can understand_

Good Trading, my greetings (Long, long, long !!!!)

Stake_
  • #2,693
  • Aug 19, 2009 10:01pm Aug 19, 2009 10:01pm
it is funny sometimes for me to come back here and read some commentaries.
i have always said that you can trade outright but you miss the 2 legs things in and out which gave me hundreds of more pips yearly.

The one i prefer is the last one saying this is not a professional approach.

I think on these forums you have very few profesionals and i am one of them ( trading professionaly for more than 20 years ) and not only on forex but on everything which is mooving with great return.
Have been managing several hedge funds etc..

This system is derived from a very professional one i created used with my team for years on other supports with a capital of more than 100mios usd.
You just have to understand it and use a very conservative approach and leverage and you will win with it.
  • #2,694
  • Aug 20, 2009 3:25am Aug 20, 2009 3:25am
i check daily pivot of e/c
if price below pivot line i sell both e/u and u/c
if price above i buy both
i set stop loss also 20 pips in case of major market moves

i have not yet tested fully but my guess is : best days can be when e/c moves around pivot .
today pivot is 1.5272, if price breaks pivot i close positions( this is my stop/loss)
  • #2,695
  • Aug 20, 2009 5:09am Aug 20, 2009 5:09am
Holding 2 long positions, 1.5193 from Monday and 1.5158 from yesterday.
  • #2,696
  • Sep 7, 2009 3:06am Sep 7, 2009 3:06am
This post is interesting and useful.

But what if these two pair tell you different story on different Time Frame?

ie. Short Eur Long Chf on 1Hour, but Long Eur Short Chf on 3Hour chart?
  • #2,697
  • Sep 7, 2009 2:42pm Sep 7, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting spieler
it is funny sometimes for me to come back here and read some commentaries.
i have always said that you can trade outright but you miss the 2 legs things in and out which gave me hundreds of more pips yearly.

The one i prefer is the last one saying this is not a professional approach.

I think on these forums you have very few profesionals and i am one of them ( trading professionaly for more than 20 years ) and not only on forex but on everything which is mooving with great return.
Have been managing several hedge funds etc..

This system is...
I agree - professional traders take advantage of arbitrage all the time and this nothing else bottom line.
  • #2,698
  • Sep 12, 2009 6:45am Sep 12, 2009 6:45am
Could you please post your gbp system


Quoting spieler
SHORT 1,51

I have a system for cable but too powerfull to be put here
  • #2,699
  • Sep 12, 2009 6:51am Sep 12, 2009 6:51am
Could you please post your indicators, or anyone else that has them
thank you

Quoting Waka
Hi All

Did anyone get caught on the wrong side the the 10 - 16th March move and if so, how did you get yourself out without too many lost pips? I ask because during this time divergence moved ~4.75% and has since not re-correlated back to that point. In fact the most it's retraced since then is ~2.2%. I understand that there has been intraday retraces which the graph below does not show and could have been exploited, but generally entry at this point could not have been good, especially the big March 12 move. So unless you have a deep pocket...
  • #2,700
  • Sep 20, 2009 7:25pm Sep 20, 2009 7:25pm
Could someone tell me the formula that this indicator in calculating
for number of lots plus range.

or saying it different

what is the formula for calculating lot value for compensating the the range
of different pairs





Quoting NowAndLater
Ok, added inputs, "ExtraLevel", to four additional levels. If left to "0" they will not appear as this is the same as closed price line (duh!). The inputs should be in this form: the desired deviation is +0.35% -> then the input should be "0.35", desired is -0.35 -> input is "-0.35", and so on. The ExtraLevel line's colour is purple.
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