james16 Chart Thread | Page 2066 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #41,301
  • Aug 18, 2009 8:40am Aug 18, 2009 8:40am
Quoting ghous


Get these thoughts out of your mind Tac, you're completely underestimating the higher tfs.

More money lies with the lower time frames but that doesn't come anywhere close to suggest that you cannot build on a small account using dailies. In fact building on an account is much more easier to do on the higher time frames provided you're right on your mind.

Sorry if I appeared a bit rude,

Just had to get this across...
No not at all.

I think dailies are good for big accounts and learning pa, but for account building, dailies alone do not produce enough opportunities to compound. If you are going to add to your account that's a different matter. Luckily PA works on 15 min also, look at Ryan and others.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #41,302
  • Aug 18, 2009 8:45am Aug 18, 2009 8:45am
Quoting tac
The problem with trading dailies is you will never build a small account up just trading them, there are simply not enough trading oppurtunites, for account building you need to get down to 1hr or 15min charts, where you can get trades every day. However to get down to them you need to move down from daily to learn pa and gain experience. So it looks like

Small account - start on daily gradually move down to 15 mins to learn
Build account up to large account then move up to daily.
I disagree with this tac for a couple of reasons. But I am glad you wrote it because it gives the chance to talk about something I've wanted to post about.

People often assume more opportunities to trade means more opportunities to win. It doesn't. It means more opportunities to lose as well. Many who have finally made the journey "down there" just don't trade the lower TFs anymore because they can make more than enough from the higher TFs.

A strategy that involves getting into a good daily/weekly trade and staying there while protecting you from a loss can give you double digit returns a month.

Staying in a move is something I am still working on. But to illustrate the opportunity:

July was a very slow month for many people. I took about 4 daily trades. Between them they are at around 15R-20R and still running. I got out early so didn't make anything near that. But the point remains. That's just 4 daily and weekly trades a month. If someone had taken those, with 1% risk and a defined full bar SL, shut down his computer to go on holiday, and come back today, he would be back to around a 20% gain.

The idea that daily and weekly timeframes cannot build your account is simply a myth.

Those who succeed in this business master their impatience. Looking for more opportunities to trade can be (not always but it can be) a sign of impatience. Usually those who drop down to lower timeframes and make it are the ones who do so with a degree of fear about the increased possibility of losing. That's the respect they deserve.
  • #41,303
  • Aug 18, 2009 8:47am Aug 18, 2009 8:47am
Quoting Jduester
Read many of J16's posts for more thorough explanation... this is where I learned what can and cannot be done.

Josh
Guys,

Thanks for the responses!!! - don't get me wrong I am not going to increase lot sizes using this method just that it was a thought experiment that set me wondering...

Tac - although what your saying is being debated I don't have that option anyway... don't think I'd keep my job long trading on the 15 minute timeframe at work - thats what I love about this game.. I can examine the daily candles at 11PM (alpari UK close time) and trade on ~30 mins 'work' a day...

when I eventually go full time trading (when my account has multiplied by about 1500!! LOL) I might go down the timeframes but until then... not gonna happen

I'm still trading my £200 acct but am still on the J16 3 month demo thing.

Don't get me wrong when I am confident and have passed my probation I will dump a few K into the account (4-10 depending on how much I can slip past the missus without her noticing ) but I will have to compound up to the higher figures I guess... anyways I digress and have gone off topic again..

was more wondering if anyone had been through the same thought process before...

like Josh says testing is paramount here and so is pickyness....

I would hazard a guess that a 50% SL would have actually put me in better shape (with the same lot size!) than the 100% approach anyway as I have had 3 full bar losses to date and the vast majority of my trades have been winners or BE.. - basically had very little drawdown initially and those that did eventually retrace hit SL at BE anyway which would still be the same as I tend (for right or wrong) to move trades to BE at the first reasonable oppertunity....

anyway I still have 6 weeks or so to get my 3 month probation outta the way and I won't be changing anything in this area at this early stage

Good responses guys...

Thanks again as always

Tom
  • #41,304
  • Aug 18, 2009 8:50am Aug 18, 2009 8:50am
Quoting Jduester
I respectfully disagree here....

Technically I suppose you can do it, maybe over 10 years. 2k account 20 100k with 4% a month for 10 months a year will take 10 years. Once you get there then sure it starts to accelerate.

Its the 10 years to get from 2k to 100k that very few will be able to do. If you trade the lower time frames and get 4% a week then you can get that in a couple of years.

Personally I want to trade dailies and weeklies only, but I would never try and build a small account using them. I would rather save for a few years than open a larger account.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #41,305
  • Aug 18, 2009 8:56am Aug 18, 2009 8:56am
Quoting TiaForex
I disagree with this tac for a couple of reasons. But I am glad you wrote it because it gives the chance to talk about something I've wanted to post about.

People often assume more opportunities to trade means more opportunities to win. It doesn't. It means more opportunities to lose as well. Many who have finally made the journey "down there" just don't trade the lower TFs anymore because they can make more than enough from the higher TFs.

A strategy that involves getting into a good daily/weekly trade and staying there while protecting...
I never said you cant build an account, it will take forever to take 500 bucks to 100k using only dailies, not many will have the patience to do this. Once you are at 100k then fine dailies becomes the obvious choice.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #41,306
  • Aug 18, 2009 8:59am Aug 18, 2009 8:59am
As a footnote tac I would add this:

In your trading records spreadsheet, keep a column called "Max Trade Ran". That is, the maximum the trade ran before it hit your stoploss. Build up 6 months of data. That information alone will transform your trading and make you realise that the idea that daily and weekly trading alone cannot build your account is a myth.

And that's before we've even begun to touch on the world of stocks, futures, indices and commodities that you can trade on daily and weekly...

And lest Mike comes along to slap my wrists I should add this. Just focus on the first hurdle, consistent profitability, and then these opportunities will just become as clear as day to you. Trading really is about doing the next right thing. Everything else just falls into place.

I feel obliged to offer my opinion when someone says it takes too long to build an account trading dailies and weeklies because my experience and testing shows that it's simply not true. But in general I would suggest that it's the wrong area to be focussing on. Just focussing on a clear consistent easy strategy and all I can say is you'll be incredibly surprised at what you believe a year from now. In fact you may even look back on the posts you made twelve months back and smile. I know I do.

But as James has said time and again, starting on the lower timeframes without having first proven yourself on the higher ones is a death sentence for most traders. It's not enough to say "look at Ryan". That guy lost consistently for four years before he learned, even with a mentor standing over his shoulder. I've always said that the quickest way down to the lower timeframes is to follow the directions in post one. If you don't, I'd bet on you blowing your account sooner rather than later.
  • #41,307
  • Aug 18, 2009 8:59am Aug 18, 2009 8:59am
Hi everyone,

I must admit I was thinking on this subject yesterday for a long time..I thought maybe to make a post.

I would be more than happy to hear other opinions about my thoughts.

Lets say I am a very experienced trader which made his way down slowly from weekly to the 1 hour. Lets say I have all day just for watching charts and trade.

Lets say I get 3 A++ setups every month on daily in average (even I think it is more likely 1, but ok).
So first my thinking was "one move at daily worth 200 pips, why trade the 1H for only 40 pips? Those intraday traders must be nuts and bored to death".

But now as I look at it, there is no difference. If I get a 200 pips move on the daily chart while I have a 200 pips stop, I am gaining the exact same amount of money if I get a 40 pips move on 1 hour with a 40 pip stop on the 1H chart while risking the same % of my account at the two trades.

See, it depends on the position size more than the move of pips.


The weekly and daily charts are absolutely better for people that work full time and do not have time to watch their charts, it also takes alot of pressure away when your pip value is lower, you are able to control your emotions better and make better decisions.
But the problem is a very few trading opportunities...it can make some people nuts.

I really see the advantages of the weekly and daily, but now lets see what will happen on 1H.
Lets say I risk 1.5% of my account on each trade, while picking only the A++ setups. Lets say I can get 10 trades like that a month if I am looking on 25-30 forex pairs, gold and silver.
Basically, if I trade a pin bar (not aggressively) every move in the length of the pin will make a gain of 1.5% of my account. So lets say I take potential long moves, and in average make a move 0f 1-3 times the length of the pin at least. That will make me a 30% gain a month (please do not think I have lost my mind. I know it is a super duper huge percentage).

I am not being hypnotized by greediness (hope so lol), just thoughts.

Aren't I am right? If I have time and can master the 1H, I can make much more money.
On the other hand, I can try and play weekly and daily pins more aggressive in order to get a big pip move with a larger position size.


Bottom line, after you master the lower time frames, there is more money to be done there. But you need first, master those time frames, second, have a lifestyle that fits it, and third know how to control your emotions on those time frames that is harder IMO.
  • #41,308
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:03am Aug 18, 2009 9:03am
Quoting benji533
Hi everyone,

I must admit I was thinking on this subject yesterday for a long time..I thought maybe to make a post.

I would be more than happy to hear other opinions about my thoughts.

Lets say I am a very experienced trader which made his way down slowly from weekly to the 1 hour. Lets say I have all day just for watching charts and trade.

Lets say I get 3 A++ setups every month on daily in average (even I think it is more likely 1, but ok).
So first my thinking was "one move at daily worth 200 pips, why trade the 1H for only 40 pips? Those...
Totally right, sure start on the higher timframes or stay there id you have a big account, but if you want to compound fast you need to move down to 1hr or lower.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #41,309
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:06am Aug 18, 2009 9:06am
Quoting TiaForex
As a footnote tac I would add this:

In your trading records spreadsheet, keep a column called "Max Trade Ran". That is, the maximum the trade ran before it hit your stoploss. Build up 6 months of data. That information alone will transform your trading and make you realise that the idea that daily and weekly trading alone cannot build your account is a myth.

And that's before we've even begun to touch on the world of stocks, futures, indices and commodities that you can trade on daily and weekly...

And lest Mike comes along to slap my wrists...

What use is looking at Max trade ran? its an idealistic figure that you will never achieve. You can build an account on dailies its just going to take much much longer.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #41,310
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:10am Aug 18, 2009 9:10am
Quoting tac
What use is looking at Max trade ran? its an idealistic figure that you will never achieve. You can build an account on dailies its just going to take much much longer.
I'll tell you the use.

If the max trade ran figure across a hundred trades is 50 or 60 times what you actually made out of it, then you need to look at your profit taking strategy.

It seems you're getting a little aggressive around this now tac so I won't continue this conversation with you. Everything I believe I've already posted.
  • #41,311
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:11am Aug 18, 2009 9:11am
Quoting TiaForex
As a footnote tac I would add this:
In your trading records spreadsheet, keep a column called "Max Trade Ran". That is, the maximum the trade ran before it hit your stoploss.....
very nice...
i thought i was alone in doing this..
I plan to have mine in pips & percentage(exit profit vs max. ran). ["plan" because my trading records is not yet extensively written]
  • #41,312
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:14am Aug 18, 2009 9:14am
Quoting TiaForex
I'll tell you the use.

If the max trade ran figure across a hundred trades is 50 or 60 times what you actually made out of it, then you need to look at your profit taking strategy.

It seems you're getting a little aggressive around this now tac so I won't continue this conversation with you. Everything I believe I've already posted.
I'm not aggressive just debating, I don't see the point in looking at max trade ran as it is very difficult to judge exactly when price stops and reverses. The best you can get is a percentage of the max trade ran. Also im not saying to just jump down to lower TF, move down as Jim suggests, all I am saying is it takes much much longer to build and account on dailies than on lower time frames. If you have a small account it would be benifical to move down to build your account quicker (once you have mastered them on demo of course). About Ryan, if he was trading dailes he would have probably 1/10th the account size he has now.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #41,313
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:16am Aug 18, 2009 9:16am
Quoting TiaForex
I'll tell you the use.

If the max trade ran figure across a hundred trades is 50 or 60 times what you actually made out of it, then you need to look at your profit taking strategy.

It seems you're getting a little aggressive around this now tac so I won't continue this conversation with you. Everything I believe I've already posted.

Hi,

Personally I love your posts. They helped me. Thank you.

Just a thought on your last post - maybe trailing stops strategy (Mike has a few) will be the solution for maximizing profits and cutting the loosers. I'm currently back testing it.

I'm glad you are sharing you experience with us. You seem to be in this business for a while.

Ben
  • #41,314
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:20am Aug 18, 2009 9:20am
Quoting tac
I'm not aggressive just debating, I don't see the point in looking at max trade ran as it is very difficult to judge exactly when price stops and reverses. The best you can get is a percentage of the max trade ran.
Okay. Just one last point here.

I am not saying you will always make your "max trade ran". In fact you never ever will.

I am saying that if on average your trades make 4R each before hitting the stoploss and you are taking 0.2R from them then you can review and perhaps set targets that are greater thus allowing you to squeeze more from each trade and allowing you to get greater returns from the daily.

Keeping records allows you to maximise what you make from a trade. Getting in is the easy part, trade management is the tricky one.

We're going to have to agree to disagree on a lot of this tac. I feel it important to lay my opnion out there because people often underestimate the power of the higher timeframes to make money, then go down to the lowers too quick, and blow out. I've seen it happen again and again here and I would hate this conversation to influence it happening to anyone else.

Back to my trading.

  • #41,315
  • Edited 9:27am Aug 18, 2009 9:24am | Edited 9:27am
Quoting tac
What use is looking at Max trade ran? its an idealistic figure that you will never achieve....
on the contrary, it IS achievable.
sometimes/often, your max trade ran is your exit profit; that is, for example, u had a 50pip profit target (your exit profit) that got hit, so that's your max trade ran too --- 50pips/50pips or 100%.
or sometimes, your max trade ran is 50pips , but your trail.stop was hit for ,say, 45pips, so that's 45/50 or 90% in percentage terms.

[that's how i see/define 'max trade ran'; not sure if i & TiaForex are doing the same thing with it]
  • #41,316
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:27am Aug 18, 2009 9:27am
Quoting TiaForex
Okay. Just one last point here.

I am not saying you will always make your "max trade ran". In fact you never ever will.

I am saying that if on average your trades make 4R each before hitting the stoploss and you are taking 0.2R from them then you can review and perhaps set targets that are greater thus allowing you to squeeze more from each trade and allowing you to get greater returns from the daily.

Keeping records allows you to maximise what you make from a trade. Getting in is the easy part, trade management is the tricky one.

We're going...
Ok no worries, I would always say to someone demo on the smaller timeframes, after proving it on the higher ones. I mean Jim, Mike etc all trade the lower timeframes so they are not bad, just require experience and skill.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #41,317
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:28am Aug 18, 2009 9:28am
Quoting supremeChaos
on the contrary, it IS achievable.
sometimes/often, your max trade ran is your exit profit; that is, example, u had a 50pip profit target(your exit profit), so that's your max trade ran too --- 50pips/50pips or 100%.
or sometimes, your max trade ran is 50pips , but your trail.stop was hit for ,say, 45pips, so that's 45/50 or 90% in percentage terms.

[that's how i see/define 'max trade ran'; not sure if i & TiaForex are doing the same thing with it]

I thought he meant if you left the trade on the most profit you could have gotten if you choose the exact point it reversed and hit your stop.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #41,318
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:28am Aug 18, 2009 9:28am
Quoting supremeChaos
on the contrary, it IS achievable.
sometimes/often, your max trade ran is your exit profit; that is, example, u had a 50pip profit target(your exit profit), so that's your max trade ran too --- 50pips/50pips or 100%.
or sometimes, your max trade ran is 50pips , but your trail.stop was hit for ,say, 45pips, so that's 45/50 or 90% in percentage terms.

[that's how i see/define 'max trade ran'; not sure if i & TiaForex are doing the same thing with it]
I just mean it as the exact pip value the trade ran to before it turned round and hit your SL. It was an idea suggested to me by Rac and looking at that column transformed the way I look at trading. I'm not mandating it for anyone, just sharing what works for me. Take what you like and leave the rest.
  • #41,319
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:39am Aug 18, 2009 9:39am
Quote
I thought he meant if you left the trade on the most profit you could have gotten if you choose the exact point it reversed and hit your stop.
Quote
I just mean it as the exact pip value the trade ran to before it turned round and hit your SL.
tac, TiaForex,
yes exactly...
but TiaForex may be using it differently, like i what i mentioned prior.
i, apply it to SL & TSL (trail.stop. loss) --just like in my above example.
  • #41,320
  • Aug 18, 2009 10:01am Aug 18, 2009 10:01am
Nice 15m bounce for you guys.

Also a zoomed out version on the 1hr showing heavy resistance...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uch15.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uch1h.gif Size: 20 KB
Time for a new chapter
40 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
Gainfaciles