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james16 Chart Thread
- #41,262
- Aug 17, 2009 3:32pm Aug 17, 2009 3:32pm
I need to grow a pair. I have not been pulling the trigger as much as a I should an am being really picky.
I also went on a trip recently (New Zealand - absolutely beautiful part of the world, south island, snowboarding
) and i came back and also saw a trade that i would normally take, go great.. without me. Then thought the same as you, as i've only taken about 3 trades in the past 2 months.But then i thought, if i had been in that trade and it had gone against me, i would be more annoyed with myself than i am now.
Don't worry about it, get back in the saddle, take a couple of demo trades to get your grip on the markets again, and move forward
- #41,263
- Aug 17, 2009 4:09pm Aug 17, 2009 4:09pm
Hey Bryan,
Hope all went well with this trade of yours,
That wick did prove to be a hurdle a touch too big eh? Needless to say we weren't surprised by the move were we?
g
Thanks Ghous.
I'm afraid my noviceness....(greediness?) got the better of me. I moved my stop to be, then proceeded to give back all those well thought out pips. At least I was able to sniff out the trade in the first place....which makes me feel better. Yet another learning experience.
- #41,266
- Aug 17, 2009 6:10pm Aug 17, 2009 6:10pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Vivere! | 1,034 Posts
I must dive in. Anytime an Aussie with a brew in his hand starts going off, I gotta go with him - even if the pool is full of box jellies and hungry sharks...
BTW - I probably have the book he is speaking of. I got a headache from it.
You are being kind...
Bingo. (That is a local Catholic term meaning "I win" or in this case "You got it"...)
Hey, I see a pattern - I'm diving in. Oops, was that a PPZ I just crashed into? Reminds me of the time I dove into a pool with I was a kid - and the pool was only 2 feet deep. "Look a pool!!''...)
Look at that 'three black crows' pattern. What does it really tell you? All it really says is 'price went down a decent amount for 3 periods in a row'. But is that tradeable information per se? Probably not.
We'd never laugh at you ...
Frankly, I'd ask you to repeat that....
Yeah, like buying a drink for a pretty girl. You know what comes next - right?
Texas??? Nothing but Steers and ....
All together now... OHHHMMMMM......
And there it is. The best of the best right there.
If you all really want a book, Try "Pring on Price". It is excellent. But do NOT bother until you've consumed this thread. Trust me - one thing at a time works.
BTW - I probably have the book he is speaking of. I got a headache from it.
I love candlesticks as much as the next guy (possibly moreso - look at my reading list from a month or two back! ) but I think I should throw out a word of caution here.
Candlestick 'patterns' are, on the whole, overrated.
Yup, I said it.
Why? Because they lead to bad decisions from people that dont really think through what they are doing.
Bingo. (That is a local Catholic term meaning "I win" or in this case "You got it"...)
Hey, I see a pattern - I'm diving in. Oops, was that a PPZ I just crashed into? Reminds me of the time I dove into a pool with I was a kid - and the pool was only 2 feet deep. "Look a pool!!''...)
Look at that 'three black crows' pattern. What does it really tell you? All it really says is 'price went down a decent amount for 3 periods in a row'. But is that tradeable information per se? Probably not.
If I said 'hey guys, there are 3 red bars on my chart, should I short it?!', I would get laughed out of the thread. Heartily. Because, by itself, it doesnt really mean anything. For every 'example' like the contrived one on the linked page, I can show you ten charts where it failed.
We'd never laugh at you ...
Now, if I said something more like 'hi guys, I saw a big bearish bar which closed at the low and went straight through a PPZ and round number, with a broader range than the last couple of bars on a pullback from a downward trend'... well, people might be more receptive to my ideas.
Frankly, I'd ask you to repeat that....
The problem is that people get so caught up in the cool names and spotting the patterns (something our brain loves to do) that they dont really consider the underlying movement. What does the candle actually mean? What is the market doing? Where might it go, and where might it stall?
Yeah, like buying a drink for a pretty girl. You know what comes next - right?
But they dont worry about that. It's all just 'omg, i spotted a samurai morning star engulfing megashark pattern on AUDJPY so I shorted a hundred contracts $$$$ lol!'. And a few days later, they post a whinge about how their patten didnt work and now they live in a box.
Dont get me wrong - some candlestick patterns are useful.... unsuprisingly, the ones that mirror the PA setups we look at here! And, even more unsuprisingly, they get more and more useful as you look at them in context - what confluences are around? What is the general...
Texas??? Nothing but Steers and ....
Summary: exotic candlestick patterns are just going to lead to you donking off accounts on quasi-Eastern sounding crap bars in bad places. Leave them for the suckers who think they stumbled onto some mystical secret.
All together now... OHHHMMMMM......
Stick to the basics, friend.
And there it is. The best of the best right there.
If you all really want a book, Try "Pring on Price". It is excellent. But do NOT bother until you've consumed this thread. Trust me - one thing at a time works.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
- #41,268
- Edited 7:01pm Aug 17, 2009 6:39pm | Edited 7:01pm
I must dive in. Anytime an Aussie with a brew in his hand starts going off, I gotta go with him - even if the pool is full of box jellies and hungry sharks...
Yeah, like buying a drink for a pretty girl. You know what comes next - right?
All of the Japanese Candlestick Patterns basically reduce down the the "Big Three"... PB, BU/BEOB or IB....
I don't think there is a big difference between Jim's Bar patterns to that of Japanese Candlestick patterns...
It's the same as the discussion from a few weeks ago that a DBHLC is usually just a 2-period pinbar.
My problem is more with people focusing on the 'pattern' they saw, as opposed to what it actually means - and whether it is actually tradeable.
It happens with bar charts too - sometimes, people will see a tiny little countertrend pinbar and try and trade it...and lose. And it is for pretty much the same reason - they looked for a pattern, rather than thinking about what they are doing.
I just think it is way more prevalent with candlestick charting 'patterns', because people see these three and four bar setups with an esoteric name and assume that they have to work.
And so someone like tradertt, who is starting out, should probably just be sticking to basics, rather than looking for new patterns to add to the mix and overcomplicating things.
as I said, I really do like candlesticks, and used to use them exclusively (although I never really traded 'patterns', just thought they looked cooler than bars or lines)... but, since discovering this thread, I have really tried to simplify things. and going to bar charts and *just* focusing on what price did, and why, has been a huge help - half because they 'cut the clutter', and half because I dont look for patterns that i read about in a book anymore.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #41,270
- Aug 17, 2009 7:15pm Aug 17, 2009 7:15pm
Yeah, like buying a drink for a pretty girl. You know what comes next - right?
She throws it in your face? Maybe thats just me...
Adding my 2c.
Learning how a candlestick/bars/line chart works is like learning letters in an alphabet. Useful but limited, you've got knowledge but can't apply it.
Understanding Price Pivot Zones and how candlesticks/bars etc react to them are like putting the letters together to make words. You learn big words and small words. This is even more useful, and you can apply your initial knowledge to make words, but you're still limited, because you can't string the words together and make any sense.
Understanding Risk/trade management/yourself are like putting the words into sentences. This is the area you can really start to go places. Your sentences can be long, complex, full of big words but still make sense. Your sentences can be short, simple and pointed and make sense. Then again your sentences can make no sense and you've got to re jig them.
Mastering all of the above and putting it together is like mastering the language. You are free to express your ideas as you please, because you understand the bounds of the language and that certain things just won't make any sense. You can tell who the people are that have mastered this, and they are few. But just like learning a language, the rest of us can get there with hard work and determination.
Now getting back to the point, candlestick patterns are way back in the beginning!
- #41,273
- Aug 17, 2009 8:35pm Aug 17, 2009 8:35pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
hey now, its eleven am on a tuesday... I wont be drunk for *at least* an hour
My girlfriend pulls a gun on me
No, I completely agree. A bar chart or a candlestick chart are both just an abstraction of price, so they really tell you the same thing.
It's the same as the discussion from a few weeks ago that a DBHLC is usually just a 2-period pinbar.
My problem is more with people focusing on the 'pattern' they saw, as opposed to what it actually means - and whether it is actually tradeable.
It happens with bar charts too...
IT IS ALWAYS LOCATION. The bars, just triggers, and a mere small part of the bigger story.
Mike
- #41,274
- Aug 17, 2009 8:43pm Aug 17, 2009 8:43pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
The problem is that people get so caught up in the cool names and spotting the patterns (something our brain loves to do) that they dont really consider the underlying movement. What does the candle actually mean? What is the market doing? Where might it go, and where might it stall?
Stick to the basics, friend.
Great post.
I believe . . .
- #41,275
- Aug 17, 2009 8:49pm Aug 17, 2009 8:49pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
I very much agree with your post Joel, well said.
IT IS ALWAYS LOCATION. The bars, just triggers, and a mere small part of the bigger story.
Mike
Hey Mike. I'm in this great trade and my only regret is that I took half off the table and now I'm letting the 2nd half ride.
I don't know how you don't it . . . . not taking some off the table ( actually I do know how and why you do it.)
But I just couldn't do it . . . I couldn't do it.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #41,276
- Aug 17, 2009 9:44pm Aug 17, 2009 9:44pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
Hey Mike. I'm in this great trade and my only regret is that I took half off the table and now I'm letting the 2nd half ride.
I don't know how you don't it . . . . not taking some off the table ( actually I do know how and why you do it.)
But I just couldn't do it . . . I couldn't do it.
No regrets buddy, it isn't about this trade you know that. It is about all your trades, and you know what works for you. That is what it comes down to in the end. Confidence is very important and Jarroo has it and that is why he kills it!
- #41,277
- Aug 17, 2009 10:13pm Aug 17, 2009 10:13pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
.....
Candlestick 'patterns' are, on the whole, overrated.
Why? Because they lead to bad decisions from people that dont really think through what they are doing.
Probably this is part of the "confuse the masses"/information overload agendaThe problem is that people get so caught up in the cool names and spotting the patterns (something our brain loves to do) that they dont really consider the underlying movement. What does the candle actually mean? What is the market doing? Where might it go, and where might it stall?
Dont get me wrong - some candlestick patterns are useful.... unsuprisingly, the ones that mirror the PA setups we look at here! And, even more unsuprisingly, they get more and more useful as you look at them in context - what confluences are around? What is the general market direction, and are you with it? Is there a big PPZ there?
Stick to the basics, friend.
I may as well put my 2 cents worth in here....
......
I like Morris' book better, because he turned me on to the secret of the patterns....Morris goes thru all the patterns and rates them as far as their reliability is concerned....
But the real "ah ha!" moment of his book is when he "reduces" each pattern down to its most common denominator..ie...most of the "reliable" candlestick patterns reduce down to 3 Western patterns.
1. PB 2. BU/BEOB or 3. IB....that is the simplicity of it all....
.....
Learning how a candlestick/bars/line chart works is like learning letters in an alphabet....
Understanding Price Pivot Zones and how candlesticks/bars etc react to them are like putting the letters together to make words. You learn big words and small words....
Understanding Risk/trade management/yourself are like putting the words into sentences. This is the area you can really start to go places....
Mastering all of the above and putting it together is like mastering the language..... just like learning a language,...
........
My problem is more with people focusing on the 'pattern' they saw, as opposed to what it actually means - and whether it is actually tradeable.
I just think it is way more prevalent with candlestick charting 'patterns', because people see these three and four bar setups with an esoteric name and assume that they have to work.
And so someone like tradertt, who is starting out, should probably just be sticking to basics, rather than looking for new patterns to add to the mix and overcomplicating things.........
Serious yet funny exchange of thoughts between the four guys.
- #41,278
- Edited 10:26pm Aug 17, 2009 10:14pm | Edited 10:26pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
No regrets buddy, it isn't about this trade you know that. It is about all your trades, and you know what works for you. That is what it comes down to in the end. Confidence is very important and Jarroo has it and that is why he kills it!
Thanks Mike.
I know at some point I have to get to this level. I know for some, its easy to do. But for me its difficult. Time to revisit Mr. Fuji. lol
One thing is for sure, I wouldn't be at the level I am at now without you, my friend.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #41,279
- Aug 17, 2009 10:30pm Aug 17, 2009 10:30pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
Thanks Mike.
....
One thing is for sure, I wouldn't be at the level I am at now without you, my friend.
& RESPECT that u share with each other.This is a wonderful thread...
- #41,280
- Aug 17, 2009 10:31pm Aug 17, 2009 10:31pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Seriously, i admire the LOVE
This is a wonderful thread...
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.