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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #41,121
  • Aug 16, 2009 3:27pm Aug 16, 2009 3:27pm
Quoting benji533
Don't get me wrong. I didn't say it is a long trade. That pin isn't at swing low, and doesn't have much space. I did not plan to take it. But I use this information to give me a clue about what price is currently doing. It is a good enough sign for me to skip that trade though.

I do not feel comfortable with taking a bearish outside bar on daily, while we are in a overall uptrend and we have bullish signs on a lower TF (that less bothers me). The thing that bothers me more, is the fact that we are in a consolidation pause. Right, market is sideways...
No worries, just remember that I am not saying this is the trend changing or anything, Im not looking to pick the top, just I think price will drop.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #41,122
  • Aug 16, 2009 3:30pm Aug 16, 2009 3:30pm
Quoting tac
Also look at weekly it has a BEOB also.

PERSONALLY I do not like outside bars which are looking like natural bars in their shape (dojis). I think those setups need to reflect the current situation in the market. That bar on the weekly looks very undecidable. A few pips upper and the candle will be green.
By the way, I am not sure, but I think that for a BEOB to be veiled, it needs to close at least at the fourth or third LOWER quarter of the bar itself.

Edit: It isn't a valid BEOB. For a BEOB to veiled it need to close in the bottom third to quarter of the bar.
  • #41,123
  • Aug 16, 2009 3:38pm Aug 16, 2009 3:38pm
Quoting tac
Hey Ben, thanks for that advice. I agree that divergence can be a killer in trends, however that coupled with the bar and the fib gives me enough to take the trade. I dont look at the 4hr when looking for reasons not to trade or for ppz when trading the daily. The daily pa trumps any ppz on 4hr, I also am worried about how sure you sound about where you think price is going, everything is probabilities and you should remember that.

As a note pin bars like that after steep declines are usually just profit taking and a pause, be careful if you...
I was glad to see the debate on this daily/4hr AUDUSD. I am in this trade off the daily pin. I took 81 pips profit off of my first position and the second position is currently in drawdown of 77 pips. This is the type of situation for me where I have to dig deep and stick with my original plan. The toughest time for me is when that second position gets down to the BE point (break of pin) I can close for 81 pips profit or I can trust the trend, and the PPZ underneath me. Once friday's bar formed I asked myself this question-"Would I take a short trade here based on the BEOB. My answer was "no" because of the location. My next step was to look at the weekly chart because if it gives me a good PA signal for short, then I would need to reconsider my decision to stay in the trade. I see an indecision bar at the 61.8 fib. I am in this trade until at least 8550 or SL at 8200. This is not to influence anyone here reading. It is a peek into my reasoning for stying the course and using my chart reading skills instead of my emotions to stay with my original plan. My chart is my guide and until it tells me different based on my interpretation of S/R and PA I am in my trade. RIGHT OR WRONG I AM LONG. Hope this helps someone.

K.I.S.S
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  • #41,124
  • Aug 16, 2009 3:51pm Aug 16, 2009 3:51pm
Quoting benji533
PERSONALLY I do not like outside bars which are looking like natural bars in their shape (dojis). I think those setups need to reflect the current situation in the market. That bar on the weekly looks very undecidable. A few pips upper and the candle will be green.
By the way, I am not sure, but I think that for a BEOB to be veiled, it needs to close at least at the fourth or third LOWER quarter of the bar itself.

Edit: It isn't a valid BEOB. For a BEOB to veiled it need to close in the bottom third to quarter of the bar.
Yeah its a doji, but paired with the last bar its a pin bar right of the 61.8 and 0.8500 level. Anyway, we can debate all night, price will do what it wants. Lets see how it plays out. Im not so choosy so I can see why you wouldnt play it.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #41,125
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:01pm Aug 16, 2009 4:01pm
Quoting KissFan
I was glad to see the debate on this daily/4hr AUDUSD....
Hi Kiss,

Personally I did not take that trade cause I wanted to see more space, but that was a good trade and I'm happy you are making pips
I will just add my thoughts about how managing a trade like this. Maybe it will help.
Look at the blue consolidation box on the pic below. This is a good pin because it's nose is sticking out of the box and got rejected real fast. James trades consolidation boxes if I'm not wrong. In a situation like this, I would place my take profit order at the top of the consolidation box (look how price reserved their). I won't tray to trail my stops cause I do not feel price is going out of that box. Only if I have confidence in a trade to last for the long term, I trail my stops.

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/3987/1k2p3.jpg



Currently my plan is to wait for a breakout of those bar highs which form resistance. Once price broke through, I want to see a pullback, and only then a PA setup on that resistance which will hopefully become support. Then I will be trailing my stops because there will be nothing close enough to stop me. Currently you are based under a strong resistance and IMO it will continue to rage in that blue box until a breakout will form.

Hey! That is just my opinion and how I see things

http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/5065/1k2pp3.jpg

Ben
  • #41,126
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:06pm Aug 16, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting tac
Yeah its a doji, but paired with the last bar its a pin bar right of the 61.8 and 0.8500 level. Anyway, we can debate all night, price will do what it wants. Lets see how it plays out. Im not so choosy so I can see why you wouldnt play it.
It is a great discussion in my opinion cause everyone is learning from it.
Good luck whatever you do mate

Ben
  • #41,127
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:11pm Aug 16, 2009 4:11pm
Quoting benji533
It is a great discussion in my opinion cause everyone is learning from it.
Good luck whatever you do mate

Ben
Yes I agree been cheers, Good luck on the 4 hr pin.

I am short on the break, not expecting 1000 pips here, just to first area then ill decide from there. Its gaped down a bit though looking at my feed.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #41,128
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:15pm Aug 16, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting tac
Yes I agree been cheers, Good luck on the 4 hr pin.

I am short on the break, not expecting 1000 pips here, just to first area then ill decide from there. Its gaped down a bit though looking at my feed.
I am not taking that pin because there is not enough space created and there are many barriers in the way. I do not feel comfortable with it.
Just watching for now.

Ben
  • #41,129
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:19pm Aug 16, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting KissFan
This is not to influence anyone here reading. It is a peek into my reasoning for stying the course and using my chart reading skills instead of my emotions to stay with my original plan. My chart is my guide and until it tells me different based on my interpretation of S/R and PA I am in my trade. RIGHT OR WRONG I AM LONG. Hope this helps someone.

K.I.S.S
I may as well put my 2 cents worth in on this debate. I don't want to "pick the fly shit out of the horse manure" but, I think all three of you can be right in this instance.

The 4hr looked good for a long , but that is in serious question now with the gap down. KissFan's Long on weekly PB still can still bear fruit, but on the other hand, TAC's short on BEOB is also valid....

The 4hr long could bear fruit and then come back to take it out @ BE and trigger Tac's BEOB as well...in theory anyways....The big show down here is Kiss' Long against Tac's short....time will tell...

Tac...watch the 8200 ppz and round number....definitely TP there....

I'll sit on the sidelines and referee...

With the right managing of trades....you could all be right!!

GregB
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  • #41,130
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:20pm Aug 16, 2009 4:20pm
Is anyone monitoring this one? It broke the support eventually.
I am interested in going short if I will see a good entry.

Ben

http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/2826/1k2pp33.jpg
  • #41,131
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:23pm Aug 16, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting batesmotel
I may as well put my 2 cents worth in on this debate. I don't want to "pick the fly shit out of the horse manure" but, I think all three of you can be right in this instance.

The 4hr looked good for a long , but that is in serious question now with the gap down. KissFan's Long on weekly PB still can still bear fruit, but on the other hand, TAC's short on BEOB is also valid....

The 4hr long could bear fruit and then come back to take it out BE and trigger Tac's BEOB as well...in theory anyways....The big show down here is Kiss' Long against Tac's...
LOL nice post, we could both profit from this, or make a loss. Or break even.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #41,132
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:33pm Aug 16, 2009 4:33pm
This isn't a pair I have traded before but noticed this Pin bar on the daily. This is the 3rd time price has made an attempt at this level. 09/12/2005, 29/02/2008 and 14/08/2009. My data doesn't go back before 2005 so I cannot see any other confluence.

I'm not going to trade this live as this pair looks very choppy and I don't have any experience with it but would be interested from a Technical Analysis point of view what others think.

If price did move up the bar lows from early Jan 2009 could be a concern and are not very far away, especially for a pair with a 30 pip spread. Assuming those bar lows were not there then it looks like it has some space.

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  • #41,133
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:34pm Aug 16, 2009 4:34pm
Quoting benji533
Hi Kiss,

Personally I did not take that trade cause I wanted to see more...
Thanks for the thoughts Ben! The TP from the pin was pretty obvious for me. Not knowing if or when the breakout will occur, I held my position. Either way I’ll be duly rewarded, either with experience or profit maybe both. The trend up is strong and while they change, until I see that change I’ll be here or stopped at 8200. The key for me is MM. A higher $ risk would have meant that I was out at the first TP and I take those trades from time to time when we get real pretty PA. The problem that I struggle with right now is that MACD divergence. It’s pretty profound. Once again though, we know from what we have learned here is that PA and location are our first considerations for entry/exit. Obviously, I am looking for the longer run profits with the trend here. This latest run started 7.13.2009 on the daily chart. I have made some $ trading the PA on the way to this point but looking back I would have made much more if I would have just stayed in. I am really good at sniping and getting out for the quick $$ but I want to practice getting in on the runs too. Best regards brother!

K.I.S.S.
  • #41,134
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:38pm Aug 16, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting batesmotel
I may as well put my 2 cents worth in on this debate. I don't want to "pick the fly shit out of the horse manure" but, I think all three of you can be right in this instance.

The 4hr looked good for a long , but that is in serious question now with the gap down. KissFan's Long on weekly PB still can still bear fruit, but on the other hand, TAC's short on BEOB is also valid....

The 4hr long could bear fruit and then come back to take it out @ BE and trigger Tac's BEOB as well...in theory anyways....The big show down here is Kiss' Long against...
Thanks Bates! We are all winning right now with this kind of dialog. Best of trading to everyone.

K.I.S.S.
  • #41,135
  • Aug 16, 2009 5:05pm Aug 16, 2009 5:05pm
I just wanted to take this opportunity to say hello to the people on this thread which I plan to join in on.

I'm brand new as a member here, but not quite new to forex.

Anyway, may I ask if others are seeing the same as I see when viewing the weeklies - JPY strength across the pairs?

Also, to Benji: I thought it was about time that I start spending some time on this thread and not just over at the other forum.
  • #41,136
  • Aug 16, 2009 5:27pm Aug 16, 2009 5:27pm
My GBPNZD daily trade! Easy pips!
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  • #41,137
  • Edited 6:16pm Aug 16, 2009 5:49pm | Edited 6:16pm
  •  2mas
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Thanks to James 16 family | 89 Posts
Quoting fxvision
NZD/USD daily pin bar off highs. Daily and weekly bearish divergence.
Hey FXV,
Where the h... have you been mate??? Hope all is great with you.
Really missed your posts, and very happy to see you here again.
  • #41,138
  • Aug 16, 2009 6:08pm Aug 16, 2009 6:08pm
Quoting tac
Hi folks,
Hope all you fellow traders had a great weekend, no its time to get back to the charts and look for PA.

Im going to play the break of this bearish outside bar on daily, at swing high, divergence and at 61.8 of large move down.

Good trading guys.

Mark
Also worth noting, a nice doji (indicating indecision) on the weekly.

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I'm also eyeing the daily bar, but I see a potential for trouble around 0.8200. If I short this bar, I'll play it tight.

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skype: ststroud. let's talk trading.
  • #41,139
  • Aug 16, 2009 6:15pm Aug 16, 2009 6:15pm
  •  2mas
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Thanks to James 16 family | 89 Posts
Quoting benji533
Is anyone monitoring this one? It broke the support eventually.
I am interested in going short if I will see a good entry.

Ben
Hey Ben, james highlighted the 1.24 and 1.23 Areas as 2 PPz's for this pair since a little over a year ago.
Good eyes.
  • #41,140
  • Aug 16, 2009 6:25pm Aug 16, 2009 6:25pm
Quoting 2mas
Hey Ben, james highlighted the 1.24 and 1.23 Areas as 2 PPz's for this pair since a little over a year ago.
Good eyes.
Glad to hear that.
Actually I got this kind of thinking and viewing the charts from Mike. I love his style

Lets see what we can get out of this pair

Ben
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