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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #20,701
  • Aug 14, 2009 12:07pm Aug 14, 2009 12:07pm
Quoting nerd
oh my !!

my stop for eurusd was hit...the pair appears to be getting pretty good resistance from 1.4300, which is also the TL i was talking about earlier...u'r rite xeneric..time to for stayin' out continues........





itz Pakistan, sweetheart..



i believe in cable too, hard time continues...dis pair is stuck btw the 89SMA and 21/8 EMAs...Although, derez a bullish TC on my 4hr charts, but i'm stayin out in dis pair as well until the direction gets clearer...
icic. stupid news. but well i guess US will not recover so fast. ah pakistan.. my country singapore one just passed last sun. ha..

ya i have no idea abt GU. but be careful. bearish div on WEEKLY...
  • #20,702
  • Aug 15, 2009 5:01am Aug 15, 2009 5:01am
Quoting nasir.khan
Hello guys TC coming up in EU.

all the Fibbs MA's are cleared (61.8% is around but i think it's lost respect)

Pink lines are TP
and
Yellow line is SL

I will enter at close of this 1H. A TC is formed.

Isn't this simple?
I think i should comment on this trade.

I made some good trades during this week.

Started with Ace284's Box Breakout at GJ.

than i took Short TC's on Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Usd

and in the end i cached the rally up on EJ and GJ with help of double bottom's on 1H and round bottom's on 4H.

so after all this success i got of my track and started ignoring some rules i follow.

In the trade above as you can see a TC was forming on 4H and 1H gave me entry a little earlier which was a TC. Price already spent some time around 8 EMA went under it but closed above it. There was also an Inside Bar support (Yellow Line).

But on the other hand 61.8% and hSH was enough to pass this trade as price tried couple of times to break these levels but did not succeed.

AND in last i averaged down so loss also got bigger on me and i lost 17% of my account.

But i am happy that i did not lost all the profit's i made and learnt the lesson's well.

Worth a look also http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=41051.
  • #20,703
  • Aug 15, 2009 9:18am Aug 15, 2009 9:18am
Quoting nasir.khan
I think i should comment on this trade.

I made some good trades during this week.

Started with Ace284's Box Breakout at GJ.

than i took Short TC's on Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Usd

and in the end i cached the rally up on EJ and GJ with help of double bottom's on 1H and round bottom's on 4H.

so after all this success i got of my track and started ignoring some rules i follow.

In the trade above as you can see a TC was forming on 4H and 1H gave me entry a little earlier which was...

hmmm 17% of account. that sounds like a lesson to learn.. but guess lessons are priceless...
  • #20,704
  • Edited Aug 16, 2009 4:43am Aug 15, 2009 10:26pm | Edited Aug 16, 2009 4:43am
Quoting nasir.khan
I think i should comment on this trade.

I made some good trades during this week.

Started with Ace284's Box Breakout at GJ.

than i took Short TC's on Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Usd

and in the end i cached the rally up on EJ and GJ with help of double bottom's on 1H and round bottom's on 4H.

so after all this success i got of my track and started ignoring some rules i follow.......

........ AND in last i averaged down so loss also got bigger on me and i lost 17% of my account.......
Thanks for sharing your experience, Nassir. It is a good lesson for us all to learn. I have done the same thing myself - risked a lot when I was making a series of successful trades only to be brought down to earth with a big failure. It is failures like this that will help you become a better trader and experiences like this that will stop you from blowing a lot of money when one day you have a very large account.

I agree with Yuan, that lessons are priceless.
  • #20,705
  • Aug 16, 2009 5:51am Aug 16, 2009 5:51am
  •  nerd
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Fate loves the fearless. | 48 Posts
Quoting xeneric
Thanks for sharing your experience, Nassir. It is a good lesson for us all to learn. I have done the same thing myself - risked a lot when I was making a series of successful trades only to be brought down to earth with a big failure. It is failures like this that will help you become a better trader and experiences like this that will stop you from blowing a lot of money when one day you have a very large account.

I agree with Yuan, that lessons are priceless.
agreed. lessons r priceless.
  • #20,706
  • Aug 16, 2009 6:12am Aug 16, 2009 6:12am
Thank's Xeneric and Yuan.

Actually i figured out a big mistake in my MM.

i start my entry with 1000 lot. My Stops are around 50-150 pips (bigger cause GJ)

OK when price shoot's up i do not add more to my positions so if i get 60 pips that would be 6$.

But if price comes down how much i should loose? That should be 6$ as per 1:1 rule but what happens that i start averaging down at every 10-20 pips and loss get's bigger and bigger.

But i am glad i figured it out it in my first week of live trading and i am working on it (even when i am in bathroom. lol).

So i hope all of you will consider it wisely in your trading.
  • #20,707
  • Aug 16, 2009 11:39am Aug 16, 2009 11:39am
Quoting nasir.khan
Thank's Xeneric and Yuan.

Actually i figured out a big mistake in my MM.

i start my entry with 1000 lot. My Stops are around 50-150 pips (bigger cause GJ)

OK when price shoot's up i do not add more to my positions so if i get 60 pips that would be 6$.

But if price comes down how much i should loose? That should be 6$ as per 1:1 rule but what happens that i start averaging down at every 10-20 pips and loss get's bigger and bigger.

But i am glad i figured it out it in my first week of live trading and i am working on it (even when...
hmm this is only ur 1st week of live trading? i have the impression u live trade for a long time.

let ur profits run and cut ur losses fast. but easier said than done.

anw u average at 10 pips, when the spread is already 6-7 pips for GJ, that's not very wise! but i understand ur mentality cos i did it at times. i think i rather u do not enter the full unit at the start but enter at different price like wad philip do, but of cos tt depend on situations,
  • #20,708
  • Aug 16, 2009 12:45pm Aug 16, 2009 12:45pm
  •  nerd
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Fate loves the fearless. | 48 Posts
Quoting nasir.khan
Thank's Xeneric and Yuan.

Actually i figured out a big mistake in my MM.

i start my entry with 1000 lot. My Stops are around 50-150 pips (bigger cause GJ)

OK when price shoot's up i do not add more to my positions so if i get 60 pips that would be 6$.

But if price comes down how much i should loose? That should be 6$ as per 1:1 rule but what happens that i start averaging down at every 10-20 pips and loss get's bigger and bigger.

But i am glad i figured it out it in my first week of live trading and i am working on it (even when i am in bathroom....
yes...averagin can be very dangerous, specially wid a high volatility pair like GJ...itz very common in stock exchanges though, where leverage is much lower...i too learnt it real real hard way dat averaging can be disastrous...

also i'd like to throw lite on dis...many people consider 1:1 R/R absolutely necessary for trading...as far as im concerned, datz not entirely necessary...wid a higher probability system like market rhythm, R:R of 0.9:1 on TC trades r quite acceptable...I hve seen Phillip's trades as well which had R:R of lower than 1..

wat do u guyz say..?
  • #20,709
  • Aug 16, 2009 9:50pm Aug 16, 2009 9:50pm
Its always very subjective when it comes to money management.
As for me, do i always risk 1:1. Not really. Most of my trade is
closed to 1:0.7.

Even though some trades does give 1:1. I put in another 15 plus pips. or maybe 30pips more to put myself to another safer area. Most people would say that it is not healthy as in the long run your loss would eat your profit away. However, how do i prevent it. The best solution is still to pick the best of the best high probability trade.

Sometimes, if the trade is wrong. I wait for the retrace and then see how it goes. If the retrace goes my way. It would be good. If it retrace and then continues against me. I had to closed before it hit my stoploss.

I read and read most of the trades that phillip nel make. It seem he either secure most trade with some profits and then put it to breakeven or at the same entry. I know it works for him.

Like i said, our best chance is still to choose the best setup. Its will then be easier to handle the money management. By the way, i havent gone live yet. but coming soon. Thats my next stage. Does it matter. Actually, it doesnt matter anymore to me. i dont know why i got that feeling..

Lets live and demo with success
  • #20,710
  • Aug 16, 2009 10:40pm Aug 16, 2009 10:40pm
I find that GJ and EJ both have formed a haramy pattern at monthly chart, ususally the haramy pattern(a full bull/bear candle with a candle which is much smaller than previous one) is not a strong reverse pattern compared with engulf and morning/eveing star patterns.

But the important thing is if the second candle is a cross, the haramy pattern would be a strong reverse signal, espacially the ones appear at big TF!

Due to such pattern appears at GJ and EJ's monthly chart, I have an interset to analyse them at lower TF, and alse think the big consolidation area is about to an end when September coming, we can find some clues about the way the major pairs would choose.

GJ monthly chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjm.gif Size: 27 KB


GJ weekly chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjw.gif Size: 29 KB


GJ daily chart 1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjd1.gif Size: 33 KB


Gj daily chart 2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjd2.gif Size: 35 KB
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #20,711
  • Aug 16, 2009 10:58pm Aug 16, 2009 10:58pm
EJ has same situation with GJ

EJ montly chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ejm.gif Size: 33 KB


EJ weekly chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ejw.gif Size: 28 KB


EJ daily chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ejd.gif Size: 35 KB


According to the analysis above, I think at least UJ will have a downward way sometime in the future, and both EU and GU are tend to go down due to the crosses pairs.

Hope this can help and the consolidaiton of FX market is about to end
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #20,712
  • Aug 16, 2009 11:36pm Aug 16, 2009 11:36pm
Thank you Saka for this nice explanation for a long term. In short term I think that for Eur/Jpy we could look soon for pull back to 21Ema after the pair has crossed 89sma and to fill the gap at the moment we have. Then I will look for TC pattern from around 135.00 may be. We could see and the price just to pull back to 8Ema around 134.00 price area and then to have the TC signal. I hope so.
Let's have a nice week and to see what we could take for us from the market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #20,713
  • Aug 17, 2009 12:04am Aug 17, 2009 12:04am
i see a potential bullish div on EU. esp after the support of the 200MA now. but well, might be a bit too early to say
  • #20,714
  • Edited 3:36am Aug 17, 2009 2:33am | Edited 3:36am
Quoting xeneric
Overall, the signal looks to be to the downside because of the wedge (brown lines) on the DAILY. In the very short term, there could be a small retrace because it has hit the 200SMA on the 4 hr and the 8 EMA on the 4 hr hasn't caught up yet.

The target will probably be at the blue line. That's my 2 pips worth.
My prediction from a week ago came true. The market had not broken out of the purple channel back then. I am still aiming for the blue line but there will probably be one or two pullbacks before then.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1d.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #20,715
  • Edited 3:38am Aug 17, 2009 2:46am | Edited 3:38am
Quoting xeneric
Happy Independence Day Nassir and Nerd.
The market is very fickle. Up one minute, down the next. I think I will stay out until it breaks out of this box range on the 1 hr chart.
I took the break of the 1 hr box range on Friday on EU and closed for 108 pips. I held over the weekend. It has hit the trendline now so we need to wait for direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1hr.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #20,716
  • Edited 3:34am Aug 17, 2009 3:00am | Edited 3:34am
Here is Phillip's weekly anticipation for the week. After nearly 3 months of very difficult trading, I think activity is finally returning to the markets after the summer holidays.
  • #20,717
  • Aug 17, 2009 3:02am Aug 17, 2009 3:02am
I noticed that Phillip has anticipated in his Weekly Anticipation that EU will go down to the bottom of the channel which is the green trendline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eud1.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #20,718
  • Aug 17, 2009 8:08am Aug 17, 2009 8:08am
Hi,

Anyone looking to long the AUDUSD on the next 4hr bar? The price bounced of the 200 MA. Looking to take profit at the 89 MA?

What you guiys think??

Regards,

Vinod Nair
  • #20,719
  • Aug 17, 2009 8:39am Aug 17, 2009 8:39am
The USDCAD has a short entry in about 20 mins. What u guys think?

Regards,

Vinod Nair
  • #20,720
  • Aug 17, 2009 9:07am Aug 17, 2009 9:07am
Did not see entry from both pairs.

Any comments??
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