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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #40,941
  • Aug 13, 2009 2:54pm Aug 13, 2009 2:54pm
[quote=Grover;2953238] .......the weekly pin on GBPUSD...........

Hello Grover, I am demo trading at the moment so I decided to trade this. I set up a short trade at the weekend and then it triggered whilst I was looking at an IB4 set up on Monday on the H1 chart (read about DIBS at the weekend). Originally, I had the stop set above the pivot, but I decided to move it down above the IB and hedged it with a buy above the IB. I then had to leave it all day as I am unable to access MT4 at work. When I checked in the evening I found out that my account balance (3k demo) was up about 50% off of about 80 pips! At first I thought - nice one and was quite pleased with myself, then I realised that I really didn't have a clue about how lot sizing works - it certainly isn't the same as spread betting! That was sobering, it also convinced me to join the PF. Now, after the initial kid in the sweet shop moment, I have realised that I have a so much to learn that I shall be hanging around base camp for quite some time before I have a crack at Mt. Forex!
  • #40,942
  • Edited 3:34pm Aug 13, 2009 3:12pm | Edited 3:34pm
  •  2mas
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Thanks to James 16 family | 89 Posts
Quoting Rocket!
Another 4hr pin to go with all you USD-CAD guys:

CAD-CHF:
4hr pin at good location
- ppz
- 50% fib
- in the trend of the weekly pin that broke

Only downside is its in a highly congested zone. Theres a lot of traffic all the way down. Tight money management is essential.

PS. Sorry its in a 1hr chart, my 4hr feeds timing is messed up by +1 hour and its messing up my pins! As you can see though, the pin showed up as a DBHLC on the 1 hr.
Hey Rocket,
Trading following the more reliable TF (the weekly) is much easier,isn't it? I'm sure you'll like it.

And you are right about the congestion, the 98.40 area the low of the weekly PB. Remember, PPZ can be your friend or.....
Good luck
  • #40,943
  • Aug 13, 2009 3:48pm Aug 13, 2009 3:48pm
You really do have to WAIT A LOT. After posting that last response I was thinking that I should have mentioned that it's taking trades like that that keeps many inexperienced guys in a frustrating break-even trading loop. The trades are "OK" , but they are iffy enough to give frustrating little losses over time that stop you being consistently profitable. "OK" trades happen "a lot". You want to be trading sometimes ...not "A LOT" ....to be profitable in the long run anyway. Look for more excuses NOT to take a trade, as many say.

I agree. I have a small account, trading .20ct pips. I remember when I haven't had a trade in 1-2 weeks, I would think, "I have to at least make something this week", "My account is never going to increase"

That thought would cause my major setbacks.



Quoting bundyraider
Mainly the lesson on how picky you have to be...

You identified there was congestion there. Yet traded into it. Not sure if you seen it as a multi-level problem such as what I've drawn with the pink line (below), but you did see it and knew to manage it very carefully

Experience will show you later on to skip trades like that and be even more pickier , but all you can do now is remember that , ....and next time wait for better opportunities.

You really do have to WAIT A LOT. After posting that last response I was thinking that...
  • #40,944
  • Aug 13, 2009 4:25pm Aug 13, 2009 4:25pm
Hey guys,

Just want to do a poll here:

Trading the different timeframes, how often do you enter trades per week/month in all your instruments that you moniter for PA Trades

For example:

H4 - 5 times a week
D1 - 2 times a week
Weekly - 1 time a month
  • #40,945
  • Aug 13, 2009 4:50pm Aug 13, 2009 4:50pm
Quoting tradertt
Hey guys,

Just want to do a poll here:

Trading the different timeframes, how often do you enter trades per week/month in all your instruments that you moniter for PA Trades

For example:

H4 - 5 times a week
D1 - 2 times a week
Weekly - 1 time a month
I get 1-2 a week on daily, not A+ though.

Not much on dalies tonight. Exited my EUR/AUD at be.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #40,946
  • Edited 5:34pm Aug 13, 2009 5:13pm | Edited 5:34pm
Quoting layton
You really do have to WAIT A LOT. After posting that last response I was thinking that I should have mentioned that it's taking trades like that that keeps many inexperienced guys in a frustrating break-even trading loop. The trades are "OK" , but they are iffy enough to give frustrating little losses over time that stop you being consistently profitable. "OK" trades happen "a lot". You want to be trading sometimes ...not "A LOT" ....to be profitable in the long run anyway. Look for more excuses NOT to take a trade, as many...
Yes, there is a lot of waiting, that's for sure...but that is the strategy. You can also look for/work on a consistent scalp strategy in order to keep you busy between long term trades...or, when you really get good at daily and weekly, you can start taking trades on 4hr and hourly...that'll get you more trades per week....and THEN, you can start introducing other markets such as stocks, futures and commodities....then, after you've conquered all the North American exchanges...etc...well, you get the picture.....

On demo, I know that FXPro also gives you 29 CFD's, 4 indexes, gold, silver & 30+ Fx pairs....that should keep your demo schedule quite busy....

GregB
  • #40,947
  • Edited 7:38pm Aug 13, 2009 5:38pm | Edited 7:38pm
I'm considering going long NZDCAD....we have a decent BUOB that has engulfed the last two daily bars....a classic "rising three(two) methods" candle pattern. PA is sitting on ppz and there seems to be 160 pip window of opportunity until she finds any major resistance....

Oanda is offering an 8 pip spread...with is the best I've seen from the brokers that I use.

Any comments on this long?

I Just decided to take the plunge...I placed my buy stop at 0.7410 , SL at 0.7270, TP1 0.7470....we'll take it from there

On a 5min...you can see there is a real battle going on at 0.7400

Come on NC... let's test the high and go for a double top.

GregB
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  • #40,948
  • Aug 13, 2009 5:39pm Aug 13, 2009 5:39pm
Quoting batesmotel
Yes, there is a lot of waiting, that's for sure...but that is the strategy. You can also look for/work on a consistent scalp strategy in order to keep you busy between long term trades...or, when you really get good at daily and weekly, you can start taking trades on 4hr and hourly...that'll get you more trades per week....and THEN, you can start introducing other markets such as stocks, futures and commodities....then, after you've conquered all the North American exchanges...etc...well, you get the picture.....

On demo, I know that FXPro also...
Yeah thats a good roadmap, expand to other liquid instruments that can be charted. Then move to 4hr if need be, plenty oppourtunities. With forex though, a lot of the crosses mirror the majors. I have got it down to the 6 majors (all except NZD which is just like AUD).
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #40,949
  • Aug 13, 2009 6:46pm Aug 13, 2009 6:46pm
Quoting 2mas
Hey Rocket,
Trading following the more reliable TF (the weekly) is much easier,isn't it? I'm sure you'll like it.

And you are right about the congestion, the 98.40 area the low of the weekly PB. Remember, PPZ can be your friend or.....
Good luck
Hey man,
Yeah you're totally right about that. The lower timeframes are still a bit out of my depth. I'll only sneak into 4hr territory for a really great trade if I can help it. Otherwise its all dailys and weeklys for me!

Saying that, Im kinda contradicting myself with this trade as I wouldnt consider it an A+ trade on the 4hr charts but because its going with the trend of that great weekly pin I thought it was worth a shot with a tight stop. At BE now so Im putting it down as a win!

But as Layton said, this is probably another one of those plentiful 'ok' trades that will just end up at BE. I've decided to be resolute in not taking these any more so this could be my last one of these babies. Heres hoping it tanks all the same!

Best of luck if your in the trade too 2mas.
  • #40,950
  • Aug 13, 2009 7:54pm Aug 13, 2009 7:54pm
I could tell you, but then I'd have to kill you, and anyone else who reads it....


Seriously, I take what the market gives me and - am aware enough to grab.

It varies. I have gone weeks without a trade on the daily.

I have taken 5 or 6 on the hourlies - and it gets a little like over trading to me when I do that.

If I am able to watch, I usually get something on the hourlies almost every day - but when it is slow ... Nothing. Summertime is always flatter in my opinion.

Ultimately the right question is this:

How many 'A' trades have you taken in a row. (Notice I did not say 'winners')

Cheers

Quoting tradertt
Hey guys,

Just want to do a poll here:

Trading the different timeframes, how often do you enter trades per week/month in all your instruments that you moniter for PA Trades

For example:

H4 - 5 times a week
D1 - 2 times a week
Weekly - 1 time a month
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #40,951
  • Aug 13, 2009 9:47pm Aug 13, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting tradertt
Though the daily to me was a mess of lows at different levels spanning from 1.800 down to I think 1.7600 where PPZs could be drawn Lolz maybe I am drawing them incorrectly
...Says something about what you noticed.


It's been a messy pair. So don't get too disheartened. It takes a bit of practice to 'read' the Flip zones in those situations. You actually did an OK job. It's obvious from your chart that you've definitely progressed!

Use the trick I've shown in the daily chart below... (the daily line chart one)

Switch to the daily and turn it into a line chart, instead of bars.
From the bar chart (before the switch) you will usually have a rough idea which level you are searching for a flip price to use...

In this case place the horizontal line on the chart (solid yellow) ready to move it around and then look to the first peak (or trough) that is very close to that level, and then use that to base the line off of. (See Large Yellow DOWN arrow)

If you can't find one pretty much straight away, then it's not there. Give up and go onto another pair. Simple as that.

I personally PREFER to see other reactions further into the chart (such as large yellow UP arrow), but often switching back to the bar chart will show definite confirmation that a good approximate flip point has been chosen.

From there you can often edit the parameters to round it off to the nearest '50' level (Halfway between round numbers) or Round number, which was about 10 pips away in this case. Doesn't matter if some of the reactions to that level miss hitting it by a few pips. That happens.

The dotted orange line shows a similar use of this technique. This time The first peek or trough was ...actually a trough... (first blue UP arrow).
In this case the zone is 'muddied' by another level just above it. So this is where I have drawn a blue box to mark out the flip zone. The blue arrows show the various reactions (on the line chart). ....Incedently , the top of the blue box 'zone' is another '50' level .The orange dotted line has been rounded down to the nearest Round number too.

Some times rounding off to round numbers is too much and I don't do it. If you wish,you could ignore trades that don't comply with this. I think Mike tries to. I'm doing this more often too, depends on strength of the other factors such as confluence and so on.
As far as round numbers go here, the dotted yellow line just below the solid yellow one is a round number that has also been respected often. When you get two levels close like this we get 'zones'. The pin marked in my 4 hour candle chart here is off of the solid yellow line (as I'd like to see it), but any entry would want to be below that round number because of how it's affected the chart too. In this case the pin closed below 1.7800 and a break entry would be 1.7784. ...even better!. BUT of course I wouldn't take this pin trade because of the traffic around the EMAs I use. ...actually just traffic really. The easier trades have space. ....As we keep saying.

The ONLY foreseeable trading area on that 4 hour candle chart of mine is ABOVE the solid yellow line to me. There's a lot more space.


Quote
This is something I definately have to learn. Let go of inperfect trades that may be trading right into resistance. BUt sometimes, in all trades, if you try hard enough, it seems you will always find levels that may be trouble spots.
I know how you feel! We ALL do!!

After a while you'll realise that those are the times where you need to wait. Seriously, when a good one comes along you'll know and say to youself:- "DAMN, I shouldn't have traded last week at all. All those crappy charts and I thought I was just crap at this! Look at how easy the good ones are when they finally come along! It's obvious where to get in , where to get out, where to put my stop. Derrrr!"

You can have a week sometimes where you get no trades even on the 4 hour. But then sometimes you can get a week where you might get your only two or three DAILY chart trades for the month. All in one week. Some months will give you many trades every week. You can't force the market to give you money. You have to take what it gives.

Take a look at my first reply chart again. Notice the first pink line down from the highs was long and problem free. If you waited for a break above and took a long signal off of what is the solid yellow line PPZ (in this reply), you have a clear run aaaall the way up to the TOP pink dotted line with a couple of minor zones that last took effect end of July that you'd just have to be mindful of. ....You don't have to skip the trade just because of them being there, since all of August so far appears to show a disregard for them now anyway. You just need to be mindful of them. that's all. Be prepared to protect your self from a full loss.

Don't have time to edit this post and tidy it up this time, so apologies if you have to read through it a couple of times to understand where I'm getting at. lol
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #40,952
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:40pm Aug 13, 2009 10:40pm
Quote
if you try hard enough, it seems you will always find levels that may be trouble spots.

Hi tradertt

I know that in time you will be able to tell the ones that are good from the bad.

Keep going, and keep the lot size small while your learning.


Best regards

Dale
  • #40,953
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:51pm Aug 13, 2009 10:51pm
I entered short on the break of yesterday's BEOB. I entered short because of the double top and fib retracement. Since this was a minor swing high, I planned on taking full profit on a small move only. The next bar missed my TP by 10 pips or so. Shortly after the close of the bar, I closed the position for a 0.25% loss. The original risk was 1%. I closed the position because the market did not move as expected (very low momentum). To the newer folks, it is OK to take small losses when a position makes you uncomfortable. There have been many times I felt uneasy (sometimes resulted in a sleepless night) about a position but kept it open "hoping" only to end up taking a full loss. Eventually, I learned that accepting losses is OK!

Scott
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  • #40,954
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:54pm Aug 13, 2009 10:54pm
Quoting Dale
Hi TraderTT

I know that in time you will be able to tell the ones that are good from the bad.

Keep going, and keep the lot size small while your learning.


Best regards

Dale
Hey Dale. I got a heads up on 4 hour Double IB on the Usd/Cad. (Thanks Mike W). I've been away for a few days so I missed it.

Any thoughts on this one Dale?


Double IB on the 4 hour Usd/Cad
Long term trend is down . . . short term trend is up. My initial thinking would be go for the break on the upside, which is with the short term up trend.

But the BEOB on the Daily is a strong quality PA setup. So my bias (if you will) is to go with the strong PA setup on a higher time frame. Which as it turns out , the Double IB went in that direction.

If that BEOB on the Daily was not there or was weak, I would have gone with the short term upward trend break of the Double IB.

Jim
Attached Images
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #40,955
  • Aug 13, 2009 11:11pm Aug 13, 2009 11:11pm
Quoting Grover
Haven't talked about the weekly pin on GBPUSD, so I was wondering where everyone was in it (to those that took it of course)....
Grover,
i too did not take this, but here's my view:
i believe the Taking Profit side is another discretionary side of trading: we may try/employ different exit strategies but we all can still profit from the same trade.
if u traded this with 1 lot, then i think u should've exit with at least 50 - 200 pips. were u not able to monitor this particular trade? did u put a "farther than normal" TP/profit target that's why u only got 12 pips from it? was the 12 pips profit a result of manual execution(u exited manually) or via a trailing stop?
if u traded this with 2 or more lots/positions, then there are more possibilities for exits/take profits (exits based on those discussed here or your own personal exit preferences).



Dale,
nice to see u again here.. http://www.forexfactory.com/../../...../yim/happy.gif



i'll try to be more active again once the Asian Crappy Internet returns to normal.... lol (thanks for allowing me to rant)
  • #40,956
  • Edited 2:48am Aug 14, 2009 12:13am | Edited 2:48am
Quoting Grover
The daily chart had the 365 EMA running right through it - talk about a brick wall of support...

Would love to hear some comments/advice - thanks
I tend to manage my Weekly PA on the Daily time frame.

Took the 1st TP half at 1.6450 (189 pips) and the 2nd half stop loss stayed at the same level when the Weekly PB broke . . . above the BarBreak (75 pips above the break).

The 365 ema (black on my chart) and the 1.6400 PPZ level combined made that a brick wall. imo

When strong PPZ levels become confluenced with long term MAs (365 ema, 200 ema, 150 ema), Fib levels( 61.8, 38.2 ) and the 50% retracement level or all three together, they become a strong location to find PA setups, Take Profits and places to hide your stop losses.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #40,957
  • Edited 1:44am Aug 14, 2009 12:44am | Edited 1:44am
Quoting jarroo
When strong PPZ levels become confluenced with long term MAs (365 ema, 200 ema, 150 ema), Fib levels( 61.8, 38.2 ) and the 50% retracement level or all three together, they become a strong location to find PA setups, Take Profits and places to hide your stop losses.
Why this 4 hour PB on the Eur/Jpy was an A+ setup.

135.00 Round Number which is a Daily PPZ level.
At a swing Low with space.
Confluenced with the 4 hour 150 ema (blue) and 61.8 Fib level.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #40,958
  • Aug 14, 2009 1:18am Aug 14, 2009 1:18am
Quote
Any thoughts on this one Dale?

Hey Jim,

My first thought when I saw the chart took me way back to a when I first started. There is a Gentleman who's first name is Ken, Anyway he would often say, "The market went to far to fast".

It also looks like the market is giving a mixed message, so I would wait for a cleaner trade.

Also....
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  • #40,959
  • Aug 14, 2009 1:24am Aug 14, 2009 1:24am
Quoting Dale
Hey Jim,

My first thought when I saw the chart took me way back to a when I first started. There is a Gentleman who's first name is Ken, Anyway he would often say, "The market went to far to fast".

It also looks like the market is giving a mixed message, so I would wait for a cleaner trade.

Also....

Yes. That's what I was thinking also. So clear structure or defineable form is important to a tradable Double IB. Where have I heard that before. lol

Thanks Dale.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #40,960
  • Aug 14, 2009 1:34am Aug 14, 2009 1:34am
I believe it was Linda Bradford Raschke who first said that you only need one to become a succussfull trader.

So everyone be encouraged. James has shown you one.


Best regards


Dale
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