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No Brainer Trades

  • #12,921
  • Aug 13, 2009 5:00am Aug 13, 2009 5:00am
Quoting kk007
RC, thanks for your CHF chart, it worked out great!
It was Sam's call that one.
  • #12,922
  • Aug 13, 2009 5:01am Aug 13, 2009 5:01am
Current short. Rating is on the chart. Stop is behind 13800 and R1.
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  • #12,923
  • Aug 13, 2009 5:14am Aug 13, 2009 5:14am
Quoting RedCabbage
Current short. Rating is on the chart. Stop is behind 13800 and R1.
Interesting! I find the rest of world use fibo 76.4, but you use fibo 78.6. Perhaps, that is why every time you earn more than me. lol
  • #12,924
  • Aug 13, 2009 5:21am Aug 13, 2009 5:21am
Quoting kk007
Interesting! I find the rest of world use fibo 76.4, but you use fibo 78.6. Perhaps, that is why every time you earn more than me. lol
76.4 and 78.6 is a hotly debated topic. Try googling both.
  • #12,925
  • Aug 13, 2009 6:19am Aug 13, 2009 6:19am
Quoting RedCabbage
76.4 and 78.6 is a hotly debated topic. Try googling both.
Thanks for introducing 78.6 to me.

76.4 = 38.2 x 2
76.4 = 100 - 23.6

I really don't know how 78.6 comes to existence. I will check it out later.
  • #12,926
  • Aug 13, 2009 6:38am Aug 13, 2009 6:38am
I myself have come across some failed fade trades too and decided to trade mostly breakouts as long as market cools down. Have done well so far. Nice to see I am not the only one doing that.
  • #12,927
  • Aug 13, 2009 9:13am Aug 13, 2009 9:13am
Quoting kk007
I find today also difficult to fade, but easier to trade breakout. Perhaps, because of there are a lot of red schedule news for EUR and USD these two days.

May RC and Sam share your views?

PS. RC, thanks for your CHF chart, it worked out great!
No views on this kk007, I'm doing my best right now not to think of what kind of day "today" is and just take the S&R setup.

It's when I try and distinguish between breakouts and S&R that I get stuck in the middle, lose confidence in my trades, etc.
  • #12,928
  • Aug 13, 2009 9:26am Aug 13, 2009 9:26am
Ok. Thanks for your reply. I will try to be much more caution when there is red scheduled news, though I will ignore other less important news or sudden news. Anyway, it is my style.

Quoting sam0182
No views on this kk007, I'm doing my best right now not to think of what kind of day "today" is and just take the S&R setup.

It's when I try and distinguish between breakouts and S&R that I get stuck in the middle, lose confidence in my trades, etc.
  • #12,929
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:12am Aug 13, 2009 10:12am
Quoting biz0101
you can still take advantage of the news action, just wait 30 min after the news for the market to choose direction..then go with it.
Yes. BRV even taught us to trade in the middle of news spike upon enough experience.
  • #12,930
  • Aug 13, 2009 11:52am Aug 13, 2009 11:52am
Hi folks
I wonder if anybody would be kind enough to give me some criticism on a GBP/JPY trade which I took earlier today?
I was looking for a bounce off the round number @ 160, and placed my short @ 159.95 with a stoploss @ 160.30.
Price took me out by 6 pips, then duly fell nicely.
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  • #12,931
  • Aug 13, 2009 12:01pm Aug 13, 2009 12:01pm
Nice trade today on EUR/JPY, i manage to take 134pips.

Happy trading!
scFX
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  • #12,932
  • Aug 13, 2009 12:17pm Aug 13, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting Interceptor
Hi folks
I wonder if anybody would be kind enough to give me some criticism on a GBP/JPY trade which I took earlier today?
Interceptor, here are some things to think about. You actually chose a great level to trade.....almost. Take a look at the chart I have enclosed. It appears that you traded the Figure, the 160.00 level without considering other surrounding levels of support and resistance. Look at the S/R levels last week at the 160.44 and the 160.16 levels. Look at the 62% Fib retracement level. All of these levels are slightly higher that the 160.00 Figure you traded. Based on that, I think I would have considered the 160.16 level for the entry and the 160.44 level for the lowest stop level. Consider also that the G/J is one of the most volatile pairs to trade and worthy of perhaps even a larger stop (and of course fewer lots to comply with money management concerns). You might also take a look at the 4H chart and see where some of these levels appear.

Hope these ideas help.

SR
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  • #12,933
  • Edited 2:51pm Aug 13, 2009 2:37pm | Edited 2:51pm
Quoting Interceptor
Hi folks
I wonder if anybody would be kind enough to give me some criticism on a GBP/JPY trade which I took earlier today?
I was looking for a bounce off the round number @ 160, and placed my short @ 159.95 with a stoploss @ 160.30.
Price took me out by 6 pips, then duly fell nicely.
Oh! I can only mark 159.94 and 160.17 not 160.00. The first one should let you earn up to 40 pip and the second around 300 pip now.
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  • #12,934
  • Aug 13, 2009 3:10pm Aug 13, 2009 3:10pm
Quoting seattlerust
Interceptor, here are some things to think about. You actually chose a great level to trade.....almost. Take a look at the chart I have enclosed. It appears that you traded the Figure, the 160.00 level without considering other surrounding levels of support and resistance. Look at the S/R levels last week at the 160.44 and the 160.16 levels. Look at the 62% Fib retracement level. All of these levels are slightly higher that the 160.00 Figure you traded. Based on that, I think I would have considered the 160.16 level for the entry and the 160.44...
Very helpful indeed.
Thank you.
  • #12,935
  • Aug 13, 2009 3:12pm Aug 13, 2009 3:12pm
Quoting kk007
Oh! I can only mark 159.94 and 160.17 not 160.00. The first one should let you earn up to 40 pip and the second around 300 pip now.
Too much reliance on the psyche number, methinks. Drat!
Thanks for your help.
  • #12,936
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:56pm Aug 13, 2009 10:56pm
Quoting kk007
Interesting! I find the rest of world use fibo 76.4, but you use fibo 78.6. Perhaps, that is why every time you earn more than me. lol
i have been using 78.6 too. it's good to be trading with the good guys like RedCabbage.
  • #12,937
  • Aug 13, 2009 11:14pm Aug 13, 2009 11:14pm
USD/CHF short 1.08 is all I have on my watch list, 1.08 short, 61% fib

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2.../th_uchf-1.jpg

I have nothing else incase we see EUR/USD bulls tonight...anyone pick a clean USD/CHF long area or EUR/USD short area?
  • #12,938
  • Aug 14, 2009 12:31am Aug 14, 2009 12:31am
Upon news the AUD broke 8450, and showed a pullback. However, the breakout turned out to be a false one.
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  • #12,939
  • Aug 14, 2009 3:14am Aug 14, 2009 3:14am
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GBPUSD

Attempts to go higher were met with selling pressure from 38.2 fib level of 1.6637. London open today saw an agressive break past support held for the past day. Will probably go down further today.

These 2 areas to short are unlikely to be reached today but would be useful to note

S 1.6700 - round no, 50% fib, S and R
S 1.6800 - round no, 61.8 fib. S and R

2 areas to long here. However, watch the momemtum on the downmove. We don't want to catch a falling knife.

L 1.6430 - has seen 3 distinct touches
L 1.6400 - where the final low was made before a bounce. if 1.6400 is violated will probably see a continuation move downwards.

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EURUSD
Price has been steadily creeping up since the big news spike down. An almost double bottom formed on 1.4100

2 possible areas to short

S 1.4350 - this has been the DAILY resistance area from May ~ July. ( note it was broken for a while before price dropped back in)
S 1.4450 - Clear resistance here.

1 area to long for now

L 1.4100 - round number. strong support here, spike base also.

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USDJPY

2 possible areas to short

S 96.50 - acted as both support and resistance (even during the news spike)
S 95.75 - acted as both support and resistance

1 area to long

L 94.65 (note that price has spiked past this area before coming back up previously, wise to be more careful with stoplosses here)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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USDCHF

S 1.0800 - great area of support turned resistance, plus round number
(agreement with sam's analysis)

L 1.0655 - good S and R area ( do note the 1.0630) area as well.
  • #12,940
  • Aug 14, 2009 5:03am Aug 14, 2009 5:03am
Following Ferrari's lead here is a short video about the power of combining factors to rate probability of s/r levels.

The audio quality isn't good and you'll have to maximise the playback screen to see the chart properly.

Don't laugh it's my first one!

http://www.screentoaster.com/watch/s...R/cable_set_up
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