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constin's journal : News and Fundamentals

  • #21
  • Aug 12, 2009 7:09am Aug 12, 2009 7:09am
Unemployment rate: previous 7.6 ,forecast 7.7 , actual 7.8
  • #22
  • Aug 12, 2009 7:36am Aug 12, 2009 7:36am
Quoting constin
Attachment

The Loonie it's been bearish so far. Lets see how it comes out with tomorrow Trade Balance release.
previous -1.4b ,forecast -0.6 , actual -0.1
  • #23
  • Edited 8:33am Aug 12, 2009 8:13am | Edited 8:33am
Quoting constin
previous -1.4b ,forecast -0.6 , actual -0.1
With the "Trade Balance" better then expected and the current market conditions i see some bullish sign for the CAD. Let's see how it goes.
  • #24
  • Aug 12, 2009 8:50am Aug 12, 2009 8:50am
Quoting constin
With the "Trade Balance" better then expected and the current market conditions i see some bullish sign for the CAD. Let's see how it goes.
I am adding some results in progress for later reference:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad results in progress.png Size: 19 KB
  • #25
  • Aug 12, 2009 9:35am Aug 12, 2009 9:35am
Crude oil inventories- previous 1.7m forecast 0.7m actual 2.5m
  • #26
  • Aug 12, 2009 9:50am Aug 12, 2009 9:50am
Quoting constin
With the "Trade Balance" better then expected and the current market conditions i see some bullish sign for the CAD. Let's see how it goes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad results in progress2.png Size: 19 KB
  • #27
  • Aug 13, 2009 2:35am Aug 13, 2009 2:35am
German prelim gdp previous -3.5 forecast -0.2 actual 0.3 better than expected
French prelim gdp previous -1.3 forecast -0.3 actual 0.3 better than expected

Both reports are highest in 5 moths.
  • #28
  • Aug 13, 2009 2:48am Aug 13, 2009 2:48am
Quoting constin
German prelim gdp previous -3.5 forecast -0.2 actual 0.3 better than expected
French prelim gdp previous -1.3 forecast -0.3 actual 0.3 better than expected

Both reports are highest in 5 moths.
Next related report coming up in an hour and 15 min.
Euro Flash gdp previous -2.5 forecast 0.5 actual ?
  • #29
  • Aug 13, 2009 11:59am Aug 13, 2009 11:59am
Quoting constin
Next related report coming up in an hour and 15 min.
Euro Flash gdp previous -2.5 forecast 0.5 actual ?
actual -0.1
  • #30
  • Aug 13, 2009 12:28pm Aug 13, 2009 12:28pm
Quoting constin
German prelim gdp previous -3.5 forecast -0.2 actual 0.3 better than expected
French prelim gdp previous -1.3 forecast -0.3 actual 0.3 better than expected

Both reports are highest in 5 moths.
So far, not much move with euro gdp although the reports were better than expected.
  • #31
  • Aug 14, 2009 2:25am Aug 14, 2009 2:25am
French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls previous -1.1 forecast -0.7 actual -0.5 beter than expected.
London open.
  • #32
  • Aug 17, 2009 6:23am Aug 17, 2009 6:23am
Gbp-Rightmove HPI Change in the asking price of homes for sale;
previous 0.6 , actual -2.2

The Cable it's been bearish recently.
  • #33
  • Aug 17, 2009 4:37pm Aug 17, 2009 4:37pm
TIC Long-Term Purchases (Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period) previous -19.4B , forecast -17.7B , actual 90.7B better than expected.
  • #34
  • Aug 19, 2009 2:44pm Aug 19, 2009 2:44pm
crude oil inventories: previous 2.5 forecast 1.1 actual -8.4
While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector
  • #35
  • Aug 24, 2009 6:22am Aug 24, 2009 6:22am
Industrial new orders (Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers) previous -0.5 forecast 1.7 actual 3.1 better then expected and the highest in two years.
  • #36
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:01pm Aug 25, 2009 4:01pm
Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
"Timothy Lane, deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, said in a speech the strength of the currency presented an “important risk” to growth. It has advanced 20 percent from a four-year low it reached in March. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aU6Cah9iK4AE

The loonie it's been bearish recently.
  • #37
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:23pm Aug 25, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting constin
crude oil inventories: previous 2.5 forecast 1.1 actual -8.4
While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector
I've seen the loonie bullish till the "Gov Council Member Lane Speaks" report.
  • #38
  • Edited 4:44pm Aug 25, 2009 4:30pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting constin
Prices of U.K. government bonds surged and the British pound fell after the central bank announced that it would expand its so-called quantitative easing program by GBP50 billion to a total of GBP175 billion. Analysts had been split on whether the central bank would add even GBP25 billion to the program, under which it buys mostly government securities with freshly created money.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...6-3108a30731ba

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...s/2009/063.htm...
The cable it's been bearish since.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp qe.png Size: 30 KB
  • #39
  • Edited 3:45am Aug 26, 2009 3:32am | Edited 3:45am
German Ifo Business Climate (Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers) previous 87.4 forecast 89.1 actual 90.5
With this report that came better than expected and the Industrial new orders better than expected and the highest in two years i see some bullish sign from euro's part. I could be wrong but this is what I see.
Related article:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a6kkABQAntvQ
  • #40
  • Aug 26, 2009 1:56pm Aug 26, 2009 1:56pm
Quoting constin
Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
"Timothy Lane, deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, said in a speech the strength of the currency presented an “important risk” to growth. It has advanced 20 percent from a four-year low it reached in March....
I've seen the loonie bearish since
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: loonie euro.png Size: 35 KB
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