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constin's journal : News and Fundamentals

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Aug 11, 2009 8:54pm Aug 2, 2009 9:53pm | Edited Aug 11, 2009 8:54pm
Average cash earning for JPY
The forecast was -3.6 and the actual -7.1
The lowest in 5 years.
What should we expect? Bearish for JPY ?
  • #2
  • Aug 2, 2009 11:32pm Aug 2, 2009 11:32pm
The previous "trade balance" for Cad was -1.48 B on july 10 and the next report will be on aug 12. I've already heard on the radio that the deficit is at around -4 B. Fundamental wise i see a bearish sign on Cad.
  • #3
  • Edited 2:23am Aug 3, 2009 1:57am | Edited 2:23am
German retail sales. previous -1.3 ,forecast 0.4 , actual -1.8. Lowest in 9 months gives some bearish short term outlook for the EURO.
  • #4
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:13am Aug 3, 2009 3:13am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: news 1.png Size: 40 KB


The jpy and eur bears took off with the starting of the London open and i also see that SNB keeps the Eurchf bulls in business.
  • #5
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:52am Aug 3, 2009 3:52am
Manufacturing PMI, previous 47.4 , forecast 47.7 , actual came to 50.8, the highest above 50 in 14 month. There is already been bullish movement before the report came out.
  • #6
  • Aug 4, 2009 6:05am Aug 4, 2009 6:05am
HPI -this report it's been released 9.5 hours ago. "Change in the selling price of homes in the nation's 8 state capitals;" previous -1.5 , forecast 2.1 and actual 4.2. What is interesting about this report is that is the highest in at least 5 years.
The aud it's been bearish for the past 9 hours.
  • #7
  • Aug 4, 2009 4:50pm Aug 4, 2009 4:50pm
I don't know why this thread's name and place changed from "news and fundamentals" from the trading discussion section to " constin's journal: News and Fundamentals" to the trading journals section ? I wanted people to post different opinions about different reports . i wanted people to post news that could be worth trading.
  • #8
  • Aug 4, 2009 5:10pm Aug 4, 2009 5:10pm
Quoting constin
The previous "trade balance" for Cad was -1.48 B on july 10 and the next report will be on aug 12. I've already heard on the radio that the deficit is at around -4 B. Fundamental wise i see a bearish sign on Cad.
Loonie still bearish so far.
  • #9
  • Aug 4, 2009 5:21pm Aug 4, 2009 5:21pm
Quoting constin
HPI -this report it's been released 9.5 hours ago. "Change in the selling price of homes in the nation's 8 state capitals;" previous -1.5 , forecast 2.1 and actual 4.2. What is interesting about this report is that is the highest in at least 5 years.
The aud it's been bearish for the past 9 hours.
Aussie changed to bullish since the post but audnzd keeps bearish close toward the 1.2500 figure.
  • #10
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:26am Aug 5, 2009 5:26am
There have been few better than expected reports for the cable this week.
The cable is been acting bullish recently.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp weekly report.png Size: 129 KB
  • #11
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:29am Aug 5, 2009 5:29am
Quoting constin
Loonie still bearish so far.
The loonie still continued bearish so far for the week.
  • #12
  • Edited 2:24pm Aug 6, 2009 1:45pm | Edited 2:24pm
Prices of U.K. government bonds surged and the British pound fell after the central bank announced that it would expand its so-called quantitative easing program by GBP50 billion to a total of GBP175 billion. Analysts had been split on whether the central bank would add even GBP25 billion to the program, under which it buys mostly government securities with freshly created money.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...6-3108a30731ba

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...s/2009/063.htm
  • #13
  • Edited Aug 8, 2009 10:32am Aug 7, 2009 9:53pm | Edited Aug 8, 2009 10:32am
Quoting constin
Prices of U.K. government bonds surged and the British pound fell after the central bank announced that it would expand its so-called quantitative easing program by GBP50 billion to a total of GBP175 billion. Analysts had been split on whether the central bank would add even GBP25 billion to the program, under which it buys mostly government securities with freshly created money.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...6-3108a30731ba

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...s/2009/063.htm...
Although i've seen some bearish action at the release of report, the cable continued kind of bullish thereafter.
  • #14
  • Aug 7, 2009 10:10pm Aug 7, 2009 10:10pm
previous -443k, forecast -320k, actual -247k, better than expected.
I will post some charts for further reference:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nf eurusd.png Size: 27 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nf usdchf.png Size: 27 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nf usdjpy.png Size: 26 KB
  • #15
  • Aug 8, 2009 1:08am Aug 8, 2009 1:08am
Quoting constin
Average cash earning for JPY
The forecast was -3.6 and the actual -7.1
The lowest in 5 years.
What should we expect? Bearish for JPY ?
With this report and previous week fundamental reports added the better than expacted nfp it's been a bearish run for the jpy. I will just post a chart for later reference:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy previous week fundamental report.png Size: 126 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy weekly.png Size: 33 KB
  • #16
  • Aug 11, 2009 4:02am Aug 11, 2009 4:02am
Quoting constin
Prices of U.K. government bonds surged and the British pound fell after the central bank announced that it would expand its so-called quantitative easing program by GBP50 billion to a total of GBP175 billion. Analysts had been split on whether the central bank would add even GBP25 billion to the program, under which it buys mostly government securities with freshly created money.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...6-3108a30731ba

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...s/2009/063.htm...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp recap for the week.png Size: 74 KB


The cable it's been bearish recently.
  • #17
  • Aug 11, 2009 4:38pm Aug 11, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting constin
The previous "trade balance" for Cad was -1.48 B on july 10 and the next report will be on aug 12. I've already heard on the radio that the deficit is at around -4 B. Fundamental wise i see a bearish sign on Cad.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad -gdp early news.png Size: 19 KB


The Loonie it's been bearish so far. Lets see how it comes out with tomorrow Trade Balance release.
  • #18
  • Aug 11, 2009 5:54pm Aug 11, 2009 5:54pm
CGPI -Change in the price of goods sold by corporations;

This report has to do with inflation. What is interesting about this report is that is released at a lonely time. Good to keep an eye on it.
  • #19
  • Aug 11, 2009 8:22pm Aug 11, 2009 8:22pm
Wage price index (Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, excluding bonuses) coming in 10 min. Previous 0.8 ,forecast 0.8
  • #20
  • Aug 11, 2009 8:33pm Aug 11, 2009 8:33pm
Quoting constin
Wage price index (Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, excluding bonuses) coming in 10 min. Previous 0.8 ,forecast 0.8
actual 0.8
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