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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #4,521
  • Edited 9:50pm Aug 12, 2009 9:48pm | Edited 9:50pm
Quoting strat

STRAT’s BOOT CAMP
















Not having sufficient screen time to test my cycles stuff was becoming a worry for me especially as I saw how they reacted and were a little unstable on shorter time frames. I decided to ramp up my testing and give them the acid test – M5!

Although I needed a lot of movement and action, I didn’t need it so fast that I couldn’t decipher what was going on so I decided......

Quote
If you have sat through a complete Asian trading session and are no better, knowledgeable or wiser for doing that then trading is not for you – take up tiddly winks or something equally passive!

Tiddly winks. LOL.

I'm "joining up" in STRAT'S BOOT CAMP today. I need all the training I can get.

One of my main confusions is to determine the S/R zones where price will be likely to react. To my untrained eye, there appears to be S/R all over the place.

Here is an example of what I mean.

On the AUDUSD chart the swing high on June 03 has been exceeded and price apparently has retraced and tested the Daily SR at 0.8200 and formed a hammer. Not a good one, though. It is making a move upward presently, and if it breaks the top of the hammer it will confirm a swing low on the Daily chart.

The problem I have run into is that I'm not sure if this would be considered a good rejection off of SR, because price has not really closed near it, only the tail is near the "support" area. Would it be a higher probability trade to wait until there is a candle where price has closed closer to the SR area instead of having the close so far away from SR? Or is that not important?

Also, I know you have said many times that a hammer or shooting star has to be at the end of a downtrend or uptrend. Would the formation shown here, even though it's only seven candles from high to low (see downtrend line from 08/04 to 08/12) be enough to be considered a downtrend?

I also have questions about situations where price appears to break SR and how you approach that, but I will wait 'til later for that.

To some of you guys these questions may seem very elementary, but I hope you can bear with me until I learn. Thanks.

Here is the chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd d1-w1.gif Size: 85 KB

  • #4,522
  • Aug 12, 2009 10:20pm Aug 12, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting Naws
... I see a lot of indecisiveness in direction here...
Maybe not... Remember Dr. Joe's replies (I believe this is the most important advice here when combined with PASR):

" “How do you know when to stop buying?”

“When it stops going up.”

“How do you know when it stops going up?”

“When it starts going down.” "

On this chart, the picture is very clear if you trade with Dr Joe's method and each cycle is 300-400 pips worth which you could get at least two third of every move with PASR.

It does not matter what you trade (any currency pair, futures, stocks etc.), what matters is how you trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD.jpg Size: 135 KB
  • #4,523
  • Aug 12, 2009 10:40pm Aug 12, 2009 10:40pm
Quoting Grimweasel
News Trades....

"You should never pay attention to the news because it creates a distance between you and what you have to do. It requires thought that you then have to reconcile with the chart, which can only reduce your profit. The chart tells you all that you need to know."

"The single most reliable countertrend trade is entering countertrend to the pullback, which is in it's self, a small trend. This trade is counter to the trend of the pullback, but in the direction of the major trend and will usually lead to at least a test of the major...

Hi Danny,

What you say in this post is something I can certainly relate to:

Quote
I now realise that by trying to trade 'pin-bars' at extremes on the daily chart I have been trying to out smart the market all these years - no wonder I was becoming unstuck. Hammer and Stars are reliable but for new traders it may be better to only take them with the trend (ie Fading the pullback). Trying to pick tops and bottoms on the basis of 1 candle bar is too risky!!

I can't say I have had many years of experience like you, but so far most of my failed trades seem to have come from trying to pick tops and bottoms -- against the trend. That's why I am trying to understand PASR to be able to buy dips in uptrends and sell rallies in the downtrends.

Did those quotes come from the book you mentioned, Price action Bar by Bar - by Al Brooks? It sounds like something worth reading. Do you find it helpful?

Dave
  • #4,524
  • Aug 12, 2009 10:51pm Aug 12, 2009 10:51pm
Quoting Blackeagle

It does not matter what you trade (any currency pair, futures, stocks etc.), what matters is how you trade.
That is the biggest mistery we are all searching for - how should we trade ???

Cyrus
  • #4,525
  • Aug 12, 2009 11:25pm Aug 12, 2009 11:25pm
Quoting Alexandra
Nothing like a direct question -- Long on the daily PA against the weekly support....caution given the overall weekly PA from last week as the market moves higher, however; fortunately enough movement to protect profit at this point; Strat probably has the counter view given the ominous (aka bearish) weekly chart.

Similar view of USDJPY as well described here in the past, but the weekly in that case is more supportive.

One can be profitable both ways if one has defined PA to enter and exit.
Direct is good, but if you don't like it I can beat around the bush (I'm sure if Strat gets bored he will find a picture for this). Thanks for your reply. I thought I understood your position, but wanted to confirm it for sure.
  • #4,526
  • Aug 12, 2009 11:32pm Aug 12, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Maybe not... Remember Dr. Joe's replies (I believe this is the most important advice here when combined with PASR):
Yes that wave pattern looks very nice combined with a strong support at this level, price does look like it stopped going down. I would look for better PA here because you gotta admit that is not a very good hammer. I guess when you get more experienced you don't have to be so picky with perfect candle patterns?

This is also pretty much a quadruple bottom, is it true that support has a greater chance of breaking the more it is tested or is the the opposite?
  • #4,527
  • Aug 12, 2009 11:40pm Aug 12, 2009 11:40pm
Quoting PistolDave

The problem I have run into is that I'm not sure if this would be considered a good rejection off of SR, because price has not really closed near it, only the tail is near the "support" area. Would it be a higher probability trade to wait until there is a candle where price has closed closer to the SR area instead of having the close so far away from SR? Or is that not important?
I too would like to know how the close affects things. Although the way I see it is that the long wick shows that sellers brought the price down to the support area then buyers came in and brought the price all the way back - so this shows the rejection of support.
  • #4,528
  • Aug 12, 2009 11:49pm Aug 12, 2009 11:49pm
Quoting Blackeagle
I have attached AUDNZD Daily chart and would like to hear your trade plans based on Strat's teachings.
Long on break above today's hammer and entry back into triangle. A break above confirms the hammer as a swing low and possibly a failed breakout.
Place Stop below the recent lows (support - stop around 1.2320).
Watch Daily Price action and move stop to eliminate risk and lock in profit.
Ride price up while watching PASR.
This pair has a huge spread (25 pips on my broker).
Numbers based on my account:
Risk: Approx 4.5%
Reward (exit near swing high from 7/31): Approx. 6.6%
  • #4,529
  • Aug 13, 2009 1:12am Aug 13, 2009 1:12am
Quoting Blackeagle
I have attached AUDNZD Daily chart and would like to hear your trade plans based on Strat's teachings.
Boss double top early March and the end of April this year failed to take out the previous high of July 08. This in my opinion sealed it's fate.

Big boss on a slide down for four bars, Boss on a 15 week slide. Worker below 20 and 50. Only short for me until December, looking for 1.12xx.

Just for fun, I think Nicola has been listening to Pink Floyd, first she was a Darksider, now the Moon.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #4,530
  • Aug 13, 2009 1:24am Aug 13, 2009 1:24am
Quoting Alexandra
That's a good point - the USDJPY is a funny mental trade taken in recent months on each technical formation in that direction; however as of the last week the technicals have improved drastically in that market. The EURUSD has always been a more purely technical trade over the last few weeks/months. I should say that I am comfortable with the EURUSD long at this point, but not robustly confident. I really thought that market would have run after that initial break of 1.43; but it's not what one thinks that counts. I will need to see that level tested...
Wow, maybe next time you will post a chart! We live in hope!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,531
  • Aug 13, 2009 1:26am Aug 13, 2009 1:26am
Quoting Naws
Do you think its a place to get back in the downtrend? I would if it wasnt for that support right below
No, don't jump in without PASR and without what the big boys sentiment is
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,532
  • Aug 13, 2009 1:35am Aug 13, 2009 1:35am
Quoting PistolDave
Tiddly winks. LOL.

I'm "joining up" in STRAT'S BOOT CAMP today. I need all the training I can get.

One of my main confusions is to determine the S/R zones where price will be likely to react. To my untrained eye, there appears to be S/R all over the place.

Here is an example of what I mean.

[font=Arial]On the AUDUSD chart the swing high on June 03 has been exceeded and price apparently has retraced and tested the Daily SR at 0.8200 and formed a hammer. Not a good...
Dave,

Let's see the replies from the readers first and

""To some of you guys these questions may seem very elementary"" - post whatever questions you want - maybe it will arouse the dormant knowledge in some of us
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,533
  • Aug 13, 2009 1:37am Aug 13, 2009 1:37am
Quoting Blackeagle
I have attached AUDNZD Daily chart and would like to hear your trade plans based on Strat's teachings.
Thank you, Blackeagle - this is a very testing chart, in fact, I have to go back to Yul Bryner in "The King and I" - its a puzzlement!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,534
  • Aug 13, 2009 1:38am Aug 13, 2009 1:38am
Quoting Alexandra
Nice movement from EURUSD so far; this area from 4220 up to 43 though will be interesting....a lot of daily baggage from prior weeks in the way....of course, the stress free philosophy says not to watch it until the close.

Really Strat, I have my eyes closed.....well..maybe just a quick peek.....
Come on, Alexandra, you're not fooling me that you're trading blind - me thinks you have something up your skirt!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,535
  • Aug 13, 2009 1:40am Aug 13, 2009 1:40am
Quoting Blackeagle
Maybe not... Remember Dr. Joe's replies (I believe this is the most important advice here when combined with PASR):

" “How do you know when to stop buying?”...
At situations like this, I sometimes wish Dr. Joe was still here for me to call!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,536
  • Aug 13, 2009 1:42am Aug 13, 2009 1:42am
Quoting cyrusjohn
That is the biggest mistery we are all searching for - how should we trade ???

Cyrus
Go to the top of the page, click on "First", read and understand and ALL will be revealed!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,537
  • Aug 13, 2009 3:57am Aug 13, 2009 3:57am
Quoting PistolDave
Hi Danny,

What you say in this post is something I can certainly relate to:



I can't say I have had many years of experience like you, but so far most of my failed trades seem to have come from trying to pick tops and bottoms -- against the trend. That's why I am trying to understand PASR to be able to buy dips in uptrends and sell rallies in the downtrends.

Did those quotes come from the book you mentioned, Price action Bar by Bar - by Al Brooks? It sounds like something worth reading. Do you find it helpful?

Dave
Hi Dave,
Yes the quotes are from Al Brooks Book. I've still not finished it as it's a book that you need to read slowly as you need to relate the text to the charts and read along bar by bar (hence the book's name) but it's very good; a little deep in places but worth it. I may get to the end and then re-read it!!

I have a 'loose' mate that manages uber-cash for a hedgie (Nic knows him too) and he told me to stop trying to beat the market by fighting it and just trade in the direction she wants to go. He said he stopped picking tops and bottoms years ago and his best trades come from with-trend trades - and he manages lots too - but is a trend trader as that's how you make money he told me. Wait for a TL break and re-test from underneath before taking a trade in the opposite direction to the previous trend. Much better to wait and take the middle part of an assured trend than to try and 'beat' the market by getting in early on the first sign of a trend failing!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,538
  • Aug 13, 2009 4:09am Aug 13, 2009 4:09am
Quoting strat
At situations like this, I sometimes wish Dr. Joe was still here for me to call!
Blackeagle

For me this pair is still in a major uptrend but a minor downswing. We are in a wedge (continuation pattern more often than not) and the market has attempted to BO from the pattern and the support at 1.235.
We have broke thru the wedge up TL but not convincingly. The support here is strong but look back at the last high in that minor downtrend - it's a higher high than the previous one! (Aug 3rd)

I'd be looking to get long this pair on +ve PASR. The last bar is not a hammer I'd long as it lack a tail that penetrates into 'new ground' - but the bar before is an IB - i'd wait and play the break of that IB AND the break of the H or L of the previous bar and enter that way - with a long bias.

Flat MAs rarely offer support or resistance so we can discount the MAs here I believe.

Aggressive traders would get long now, but I'd wait for a break of the last high at 1.270, then the test of that BO, so I'd look to get long at a test of the 1.250 area. OR a test from underneath of the broken UP TL of the wedge and target the major support at 1.185.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,539
  • Aug 13, 2009 5:13am Aug 13, 2009 5:13am
[quote=strat;2570141]Here is something I posted on another Forum:

Belief Statement from a professional CME

Quote
I am a professional trader. My job is to take risk. If I manage my losses and let my profits run I will be successful. Because I am a professional trader, I will forgive myself easily for making mistakes and move on to new opportunities. I feel great that I have the discipline to control my emotions and the patience required to be a professional trader. I am a professional trader and will make $1,000,000 by year end. I will achieve this by following my trading plan, setting achievable goals, and controlling my emotions. I am confident and believe in my own ability to be consistently profitable because I AM a professional trader.
Unquote

Hi Strat,
After losing my shirt (and some of my underwear as well..) I started looking around for a more stressless way of trading and I think I found it here. Congrtulations! I take the opportunity to post my personal version of the above statement: "I am an amateur trader and I can do serious damage to my account". By that I mean, asses your risk is more important than the profit outlook.
Best regards,
Ludo
  • #4,540
  • Aug 13, 2009 8:55am Aug 13, 2009 8:55am
Hi Strat

How does one apply for Mentorship with yourself and BabaG.

I've been kicking around FF here for a few years. I'm trading live on a micro account, but have less confidence in my skills that I think I should have to be trading real $$$ that I worked my butt off to earn. So, I mostly trade the hell out of a IBFX demo account. Practice Practice

Been through several "systems". Mixed results. Learned from all.
I'm facinated by currency strength and correlation trading, but it always comes back to price action and reading a chart. That's the core to all of this Forex.

I've read through the Strat thread only once, but am begining to attack again & gleen the important morsels for future reference. I follow along on the daily interaction & dialogue, too.

I've read the Jacko thread as well a few times

I've begun the journey through the J16 thread, too. (Yikes) I should have read it 3 years ago when I first discovered it, when there were only 700,000 hits on it. But it's a must do. Fortunately, they've indexed in several places items that are not to be lost in the either. Helpful.

I'm seroius about learning PA type trading. Trade management and MM are points I need to sharpen up most. I can put on a trade & turn a profit. But minimizing the loss, turning it around, position size, and exits....all needs attention.

I'm 55 years old. Seeing as how I chose to "live" life rather than exist through it, I find myself on the short end of being ready for the final chapters. I'll be damned if I'm going to go quietly under guidance of SS system, when the time comes. I see Forex as a means to resolve that little detail which I have seemed to ignore.

I have learned & read a lot. My goodness, the journey has been long, enriching, and gratifying. I need guidance toward improvement, direction, and a little more perfection.

I also own a Strat...began as a 1999 American built. Being that I can't leave anything alone, I "modified" it just a little. Now only the neck plate is the only stock Fender part on it. But, won't she play & won't she smoke!!
Imagine the "rip-your-face-off" characteristics of a Strat along with some LP type "growl" all rolled into one little package that just crys "play me" when-ever you're in the same room.

Is your Path to Learning still open to serious students who are committed to developing into consistently profitable traders....who are comsumed & possessed with learning all they possibly can to become better with each day?

I ask your consideration to be included in your mentorship group. I promise to work hard, do all my homework, & to learn the secret handshake.....

What do you say?

Thanks

Peter O.
Bath, Maine USA
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