Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain | Page 443 | Forex Factory

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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #8,841
  • Aug 11, 2009 11:03am Aug 11, 2009 11:03am
Quoting coscorp
different strokes for different folks I guess.... albeit personally i don't like going below H4.....
Yeah, you might say that. However, Jacko makes a great case for avoiding a smaller time frame. The AH is a critical component of his strategy. In describing the use of the AH, he once wrote:

"PLEASE NOTE: I am a medium to long term trend trader. The above method works best on those time frames. It works less well on short term time frames because of the volatile "noise" in the market."

My conclusion: If you want to increase your chances of success use a higher time frame such as H4. If you want to punt and pray, use a smaller time frame. I would imagine that as market conditions change this could be massaged. Given where we currently are in the market I would think you are really opening your exposure with anything less than H4. If you are going to trade like Jacko, then trade like Jacko.
  • #8,842
  • Aug 11, 2009 11:51am Aug 11, 2009 11:51am
yup - I agree...and let's not forget that Wayne moved down to the H4 relatively recently due to the volatility..otherwise it was D1 and above...

but as I said...everyone has to find their own "space"...H4 and above works just fine for me...and my stress levels and bank account are proof enough on this end


Cheers
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #8,843
  • Aug 11, 2009 3:52pm Aug 11, 2009 3:52pm
market seems to be rangin with in 80 pips again hmmmm....

BTW tomorrow are the FOMC how do we know the results?
and what does the FOMC mean?

pretty much how to u interepet the news?
  • #8,844
  • Aug 11, 2009 4:14pm Aug 11, 2009 4:14pm
Hope this helps. Also try Wikopedia (sp?)
**************
Source Federal Reserve (http://www.federalreserve.gov/) (latest release (http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm#calendars))
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency Scheduled 8 times per year; Next Release Sep 23, 2009 (http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?do=geteventinfo&day=2009-9-23) FF Notes The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on. Why Traders
Care It's the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes; Also Called Interest Rate Statement, Fed Statement, Monetary Policy Statement; Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
  • #8,845
  • Aug 11, 2009 4:20pm Aug 11, 2009 4:20pm
i read that part, this you can get on the calendar page.

BUT

how can u see the result of the FOMC as it happens or it doesnt even matter because we will always wait for the dust to settle?
  • #8,846
  • Aug 11, 2009 4:59pm Aug 11, 2009 4:59pm
that depends on your risk appetite....as trading the news is - by definition - like playing russian roulette...


usually it's better to wait and fade the news...but again...to each his own.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #8,847
  • Aug 11, 2009 6:20pm Aug 11, 2009 6:20pm
Quoting IliaM
i read that part, this you can get on the calendar page.

BUT

how can u see the result of the FOMC as it happens or it doesnt even matter because we will always wait for the dust to settle?
I started with the most obvious first…at FF. Some broker platforms have a pretty timely news ticker and Bloomberg has news on their site. Probably the most up-to-minute news access is thru a paid subscription. Maybe someone has some other options.
In my opinion only….be aware of news events and stay away from NFP (No Forex Profits) and FOMC. I have observed many times that a news event will release in favor of a specific currency but the market will interpret the info and move in an opposite direction. Sort of “like playing Russian roulette” as coscorp mentioned. I prefer to wait for the dust to settle as you pointed out. I seem to remember Jacko pointing out that trading around the news is “like gambling”!
  • #8,848
  • Aug 12, 2009 12:06pm Aug 12, 2009 12:06pm
the FOMC coming in 1hr


dun dun dun


what u guys think????
  • #8,849
  • Aug 12, 2009 12:18pm Aug 12, 2009 12:18pm
Quoting IliaM
the FOMC coming in 1hr


dun dun dun


what u guys think????
I just exited my LONG at 4214 for a 76 pip profit. Some people are still in the trade looking to ride it higher. I suspect it will go higher after the FOMC dust settles. I'm just not risk inclined right now. I figured on just taking my profits.
  • #8,850
  • Aug 12, 2009 2:28pm Aug 12, 2009 2:28pm
Quoting RickyRudy
I just exited my LONG at 4214 for a 76 pip profit. Some people are still in the trade looking to ride it higher. I suspect it will go higher after the FOMC dust settles. I'm just not risk inclined right now. I figured on just taking my profits.

Did you come within 1 pip of getting stopped this morning, only to see it turn into a 76 pip profit? Very nice.
  • #8,851
  • Aug 12, 2009 4:35pm Aug 12, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting Joe T
Did you come within 1 pip of getting stopped this morning, only to see it turn into a 76 pip profit? Very nice.
Nah, I wasn't in any danger of getting stopped out. I entered a couple days ago at 1.4138. I initially tried to enter at 1.4100/1.4098 but it only moved to a low of 1.4104, so I didn't get my ideal entry. My entry of 1.4138 meant my SL was set to 1.4038.

Today's move was a great example of how the FOMC could wipe you out. Had I not exited before the NFP I would have watched as the thing reversed to a low of 1.4121 during the NFP, then back up to over 1.4222. That's a move that is dangerous to any stop in between those 100 pips. I'm sure glad that excitement is over.
  • #8,852
  • Aug 12, 2009 4:42pm Aug 12, 2009 4:42pm
Quoting RickyRudy
Nah, I wasn't in any danger of getting stopped out. I entered a couple days ago at 1.4138. I initially tried to enter at 1.4100/1.4098 but it only moved to a low of 1.4104, so I didn't get my ideal entry. My entry of 1.4138 meant my SL was set to 1.4038.

Today's move was a great example of how the FOMC could wipe you out. Had I not exited before the NFP I would have watched as the thing reversed to a low of 1.4121 during the NFP, then back up to over 1.4222. That's a move that is dangerous to any stop in between those 100 pips. I'm sure glad...
Does this mean you don't move your SL pip by pip? I've kept track of the action on this, and price reached 1.4184 (so I assumed your trailing stop would have moved up to 1.4084). My chart tells me that in the early morning today price dropped to 1.4085 before reversing and climbing up over 1.42. I thought we were supposed to trail our stops.
  • #8,853
  • Aug 12, 2009 6:30pm Aug 12, 2009 6:30pm
I don't trail my stops pip by pip!
  • #8,854
  • Aug 12, 2009 6:36pm Aug 12, 2009 6:36pm
Quoting Joe T
Does this mean you don't move your SL pip by pip? I've kept track of the action on this, and price reached 1.4184 (so I assumed your trailing stop would have moved up to 1.4084). My chart tells me that in the early morning today price dropped to 1.4085 before reversing and climbing up over 1.42. I thought we were supposed to trail our stops.
Joe, my assumption is that he might have his trailing TSL kick in after a +100 pip move. So until the price hits 1.4238, the only SL is at 1.4038. Once the price goes above 1.4238, the TSL would start. Am I correct, RickyRudy?
  • #8,855
  • Aug 12, 2009 9:20pm Aug 12, 2009 9:20pm
Quoting evanichka
Joe, my assumption is that he might have his trailing TSL kick in after a +100 pip move. So until the price hits 1.4238, the only SL is at 1.4038. Once the price goes above 1.4238, the TSL would start. Am I correct, RickyRudy?
I generally trail my stop by 10 pips or 20 pips depending on how much I think the market is ranging or whipsawing. Sometimes I'll go with a 50 pip TSL. I'm not always at the computer to trail pip by pip anyway. Lately I haven't been trailing much. I didn't trail this trade. I knew I wanted to let the trade play out until at least 11:30 AM NY Time when the London traders were about closing their day. Then it was just discretionary as to when I exited.

I saw that Dan posted that he has a 100 pip TSL. That seems to be working well for him.

As an FYI, I was looking to enter back into the trade around the 1.4200 level. I mucked around when it was under 1.4200 and didn't enter. Now I might be a spectator as it goes North. It's a bit too high for me right now. Be warned though, this isn't trade advice. I don't have a crystal ball like Jacko.

EDIT: I need to clarify one thing with my stop on this trade. I moved my SL to BE after I was about 75 pips in profit. It mainly had to do with some other stuff I was doing at the time and I was worried I had to leave the trade unattended. That was also a level that I thought the trade might have turned (it was getting close to FOMC). It ultimately was the level I exited the trade. I was happy with my exit and the way I managed the trade.
  • #8,856
  • Edited Aug 13, 2009 9:12am Aug 12, 2009 11:31pm | Edited Aug 13, 2009 9:12am
Quoting RickyRudy
My conclusion: If you want to increase your chances of success use a higher time frame such as H4. If you want to punt and pray, use a smaller time frame. I would imagine that as market conditions change this could be massaged. Given where we currently are in the market I would think you are really opening your exposure with anything less than H4. If you are going to trade like Jacko, then trade like Jacko.
Quoting coscorp
yup - I agree...and let's not forget that Wayne moved down to the H4 relatively recently due to the volatility..otherwise it was D1 and above... but as I said...everyone has to find their own "space"...H4 and above works just fine for me...and my stress levels and bank account are proof enough on this end Cheers
Hey guys,

These two comments are worth Gold! well said.

Cheers (and congrats to everyone on this week's longs!)

Edit : 02:05AM NY time: My new Long from .4185 is looking good with Frankie's opening. My S/L is set to B/E +50 (1.4235).
Edit 2: 02:20 AM NY Time: EU at.4265 as I'm typing. Since I can't be in front of my trading station today, I've decided to set my S/L to .4250. Don't feel like giving back any pips to the market .
Edit 3: 03:05 AM NY time: My Long from .4185 was just closed a few minutes ago at .4250 for a 65 pip profit.
  • #8,857
  • Aug 13, 2009 5:27am Aug 13, 2009 5:27am
Congrats on the win JP. I tried joining you but stubbornly thought I could've gotten a better entry, which never came. You are the man at picking the right point to enter. That's something I'm working on.

I kind of wish your situation allowed you to ride this thing further. It's going above 1.4300, maybe even to just above 1.4400.
  • #8,858
  • Aug 13, 2009 9:21am Aug 13, 2009 9:21am
My plan was to wait on my AH before making any other trades, and my AH was picked up overnight at 1.4279. Not based on any analysis, just the AH strategy. Will re-evaluate my charts when this trade is done.
  • #8,859
  • Aug 13, 2009 9:34am Aug 13, 2009 9:34am
JP you got in right after the news huh?

was thinking to do that but didnt know what to expect so i stayed out.

BTW

does any one trade with FXCM ????

if so how long did it take u to swap brokers to UK ?
  • #8,860
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:09am Aug 13, 2009 10:09am
  •  Bam Fx
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Using Small Live Account as Demo | 28 Posts
You have PM...

BTW

does any one trade with FXCM ????

if so how long did it take u to swap brokers to UK ?[/quote]
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