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  • #4,481
  • Aug 10, 2009 9:47am Aug 10, 2009 9:47am
Quoting strat
You have to be a full time professional trader who has a proven, consistent and growing equity curve based on the studies of PASR. It also helps if you are as crazy as Strat, have a weird sense of humour and doesn't give a damn what anybody else thinks.

The exception to this is Blackeagle who knows his stuff and bites his tongue when Strat pulls no punches and just "tells it like it is".

Hope this helps, ZZ Top!
I think i pass everything apart from the crazy sense of humour....

Z
  • #4,482
  • Aug 10, 2009 9:53am Aug 10, 2009 9:53am

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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How can I determine when a swing high/low has been confirmed on the weekly timeframe?


On this W1 chart of EURAUD above, the bearish candle with the down arrow marks the swing high.

I don't know the exact point when the swing has been confirmed but I'll take a shot at it, and would like your opinion and comments.

I see three possibilities for confirmation here;

1) Marked candle has a higher high and has closed lower than the previous bullish bar or,
2) Price breaks below the marked bar's low or,
3) Price breaks below the last bullish bar's low since the swing high.

My opinion is that the correct choice is (1) because it shows that price has gone as high as possible on this swing and has run into strong selling and by closing lower has shown that the bears have been able to shift momentum back to the trend direction.

Seeing price reaching points (2) and (3) is only additional verification of the swing high.

If I am wrong on this please correct me.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Another question is;

Should you wait until the swing high is confirmed on the weekly chart before you look for a shooting star or other entry candle on the daily chart?

For example, in this D1 chart above of the same swing high as the W1 chart above, there is a SS marked "A" but the earliest possible entry if you waited for swing confirmation on the weekly chart would be at "B" so there would not have been a swing confirmation yet at the break of the SS. In fact, the first proper entry point appearing would have been the break below the IB at "C."

Is this correct?

Would this SS be considered a bond candle because there had not been confirmation yet, therefore would have been a low probability trade? Or would this have appeared to be a likely winner at the time because it appeared near a resistance area and worth trying to get in before confirmation by the weekly?

Thanks in advance,
Dave
  • #4,483
  • Aug 10, 2009 8:55pm Aug 10, 2009 8:55pm
Quoting PistolDave

How can I determine when a swing high/low has been confirmed on the weekly timeframe?


On this W1 chart of EURAUD above, the bearish candle with the down arrow marks the swing high.

I don't know the exact point when the swing has been confirmed but I'll take a shot at it, and would like your opinion and comments.

I see three possibilities for confirmation here;

1) Marked candle has a higher high and has closed lower than the previous bullish bar or,
2) Price breaks below the marked bar's low or,
3) Price...
Dave, many people get swings wrong because they are not using CONFIRMED swings. Unless a swing is CONFIRMED it is not valid and is about as much use as a crack in a glass eye!

To answer your questions:

“”I see three possibilities for confirmation here;

1) Marked candle has a higher high and has closed lower than the previous bullish bar or,
2) Price breaks below the marked bar's low or,
3) Price breaks below the last bullish bar's low since the swing high””.

Unless my eyesight is failing me, Dave, your 1) statement is incorrect because (i) it is neither lower or (ii) closed lower than the prior bar.

At the end of that week that your marked candle closed, it was an UNCONFIRMED swing high.

For confirmation of a swing, the OPPOSITE end of the candle must be taken out (exceeded). So, for a CONFIRMED swing high, the highest candle must have its LOW taken out and Vicky Verka for a CONFIRMED swing low.

Therefore, your marked candle is CONFIRMED as a swing high the following week when it’s LOW is taken out.

See also attached examples

“”Should you wait until the swing high is confirmed on the weekly chart before you look for a shooting star or other entry candle on the daily chart?””

Remember that although the higher time frames determine the direction of the lower time frames, they lag at turning points. This is because the lower time frames are faster and therefore respond faster.

If you do what you suggest above then you are trading the BOSS chart and not the Worker.

When you see a classic shooting star at resistance as you show in your EURAUD Worker chart with a bearish BOSS then, providing everything else is equal and you are not trading into an immediate area of strong support, you would place a sell order below the low of the Worker shooting star.

“”Would this SS be considered a bond candle because there had not been confirmation yet, therefore would have been a low probability trade? Or would this have appeared to be a likely winner at the time because it appeared near a resistance area and worth trying to get in before confirmation by the weekly?””

Maybe you need to read again what happened to my mate Bond – he thought he had pulled a gorgeous chick but when he got down to the nitty gritty, he found the meat and two veg – in other words, a “she male”. So, a Bond candle is something it is not and is trying to “fool” you.

It can be a correctly proportioned candle but nowhere near S&R or, it can be an incorrectly proportioned candle at S&R or any combination of both.

In your example, the shooting star is correctly proportioned, the open of the candle was at resistance, the close was not only below the prior candle but also within the body of the candle before that. The wick of the shooting star is also rejected by resistance. As if that wasn’t enough, the shooting star was also a BEOB! This was a trade to die for!

Don’t get confused with how to use the BOSS to trade the Worker. The BOSS gives us our direction and sentiment – the Worker gives us our timing. When you see the BOSS signaling an opportunity, start looking at the Worker for PASR to trade in the direction of the BOSS.

Also, don’t waste your time looking at Worker pairs when their BOSS is not signaling an opportunity – this is a sure way to losing trades.

If you are still confused, ask more questions – we’ll get you there!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,484
  • Aug 10, 2009 9:02pm Aug 10, 2009 9:02pm
Quoting zuret9
I think i pass everything apart from the crazy sense of humour....

Z
Send me a PM with details and qualifications if you are interested.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,485
  • Aug 11, 2009 3:22am Aug 11, 2009 3:22am
[quote=strat;2942934]
Quoting Baba G
I dont trade the moon......just PASR....sorry to be soooo dull.

That's not what your forex girlfriend says:

Post # 4444:

""I have been reading a lot of Gann lately who used astronomy in trading and I also want to thank Swami and BabaG to opening my eyes to go looking for this""
lol lol lol
Strat i promise on my kids eyes i dont trade the moon....lololol not now not ever.

Im working with a Gann overlay to my PASR on the 15s......mostly in respect to closes but at moon time i trade as normal and then remember and look at the moon cycles and its mostly right.But its not in a demo situation lol.....and wont be.

Fibonacci extentions and time plus Ganns all play second no 3rd fiddle to Price action.But a nice bit of "real man" price action @ some of these levels.....come on......thats why i can observe these follys and just wonder........wow the moon x
  • #4,486
  • Aug 11, 2009 3:29am Aug 11, 2009 3:29am
Quoting strat
Especially for Nicola, Pizza Man and other Voodoo followers:

""QUOTE""

Weekly Financial Astrology Comments for the week beginning August 10, 2009

Review and Preview...
that is fu88king great....i piss myself everytime i read it....../lol....
  • #4,487
  • Aug 11, 2009 3:30am Aug 11, 2009 3:30am
the fact that you have that is priceless
  • #4,488
  • Aug 11, 2009 3:34am Aug 11, 2009 3:34am
look i want these guys onboard.....like er yesterday......i need to know how far my "butt ring" indicator would go if Uranus exploded while i got a pin bar veto in Saturn on cable cause the B of E just printed 50 bill and we all know the GBP is Mars......g8d wats your problem....
  • #4,489
  • Aug 11, 2009 3:43am Aug 11, 2009 3:43am
Quoting marketwavez
Us Dollar

it fell of a cliff a few days ago ------

again , who needs moon cycles ? ...............
=============================================

Understanding Fibonacci should be enough , right ? ,,,,,

Just look at all that resistance, all on located on a Fibonacci line
==============================================


again , The evidence is always in the charts !
so what was your attack on that lot,i understand fibs and sup/res but what were your tickets?

limits off levels?orders on price action?........let me know G
  • #4,490
  • Aug 11, 2009 3:49am Aug 11, 2009 3:49am
Quoting marketwavez
Here's the Eur /Usd pair from yesterday

its Moving In 5's ------then the correction
===========================================

If you can learn to identify the correction area in price-action
then ,,,,, you should then be able to find low risk trades ........

and that's without using moon cycles of course .....
Wheres 1?

No consistant "1" selection protocol no ticket...or do you have one for the "1"?
is this apart of your system ?
  • #4,491
  • Aug 11, 2009 3:53am Aug 11, 2009 3:53am
Quoting marketwavez
Usd/Yen

-------------------------- -----------------------
Price action is now fooling around with this 618% line
so how did you trade this info?
  • #4,492
  • Aug 11, 2009 3:57am Aug 11, 2009 3:57am
Quoting Razor_trader
On this chart I have made a Fib for the current move up. Note that the previous fib retrace is a copy and pasted (duplicated) of the current one and the swing high and low fit perfectly. I guess this is just to show that a move in the vicinty of a 1000 + pips is really quite possible over the next few months.
so will you fill a monthly ticket out on that info?
  • #4,493
  • Aug 11, 2009 8:29am Aug 11, 2009 8:29am
Quoting Baba G
so will you fill a monthly ticket out on that info?
No not a monthly, but I have so far made enough out of my 4 hourlys and lower based on the bias of this information contained in the monthly and weekly outlook.

I use Higher TFs to give some insight into what may happen, when I see the gap widening then it is a matter of time before human nature kicks in and we start to see some moves that bring markets back to earth a little. Pins are wonderful PA bars, even better when they appear at areas of S/R but by thenselves can provide a small insight into perhaps what may happen. I just trade what I see, and if I see a nice fat weekly pin, a monthly chart that hasnt seen a decent pullback then I will take some trades if they offer what I want.

All in all, I trade my plan which is simple and effective. It is what I am happy with.

Take care m8

Razor
  • #4,494
  • Edited 9:57am Aug 11, 2009 9:54am | Edited 9:57am
Quoting strat
Dave, many people get swings wrong because they are not using CONFIRMED swings. Unless a swing is CONFIRMED it is not valid and is about as much use as a crack in a glass eye!

To answer your questions:

“”I see three possibilities for confirmation here;

1) Marked candle has a higher high and has closed lower than the previous bullish bar or,
2) Price breaks below......
Strat,

Thanks a lot for taking the time to answer my question in so much detail.

You're right that the marked bar I showed on the W1 chart did not close below the low of the previous bullish candle. What I was thinking, and what I should have said is; 1) Marked candle has a higher high and has closed lower than the previous bullish bar closed.

Anyway, that is irrelevant because as you say,"For confirmation of a swing, the OPPOSITE end of the candle must be taken out (exceeded). So, for a CONFIRMED swing high, the highest candle must have its LOW taken out and Vicky Verka for a CONFIRMED swing low."

That makes it perfectly clear to me now.

I know it's hard to read through all that description and understand what I was trying to ask. (Sometimes I'm not sure exactly how to put it into words.)

I will go through all of your answer again a little later today to make sure I understand everything you said, and I'll get back to you with anything else I'm not sure of.

I am making progress along the Path of Learning... thanks to everyone who is posting their analysis, showing their charts, and asking questions, and your answers. This is a great group of ladies and gentlemen here.

Dave
  • #4,495
  • Edited 4:23pm Aug 11, 2009 4:20pm | Edited 4:23pm
Well, this could be a good place to short an over-valued currency. Good run up, had a Shooting Star a few days ago and today's close gives us a nice BEEB. My only concern is that until the uptrend line is broken and re-tested from underneath, we are still trading counter trend. We are also in the boss 20/50 trap. The boss has a pseudo S/Star last week so you could trade conservatively by waiting for that low to be busted - but you'd need a large stop loss.

Still, the PA lines up - it's still risky but 2 candles that tell me we could be at a top is worth a short in the weasel's book!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,496
  • Aug 11, 2009 6:40pm Aug 11, 2009 6:40pm
We have several pairs approaching levels which will decide future direction.

For those approaching support or testing support, we need to watch to see if support will hold for prices to continue the trend or will it break and…………

The same for those approaching resistance, except in reverse.

CHFJPY
EURCAD
EURGBP
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDCHF
USDJPY
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,497
  • Aug 11, 2009 6:51pm Aug 11, 2009 6:51pm
This is getting boring!

EURUSD is back at ………………………………1.4160 again!

If nothing else, we will remember this as the point of equilibrium or balance for EURUSD. This is the level at which both buyers and sellers agree on price. Who said there isn’t harmony in the world?

Someday soon, we will leave this behind and move on to pastures new!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,498
  • Aug 11, 2009 8:42pm Aug 11, 2009 8:42pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Well, this could be a good place to short an over-valued currency. Good run up, had a Shooting Star a few days ago and today's close gives us a nice BEEB. My only concern is that until the uptrend line is broken and re-tested from underneath, we are still trading counter trend. We are also in the boss 20/50 trap. The boss has a pseudo S/Star last week so you could trade conservatively by waiting for that low to be busted - but you'd need a large stop loss.

Still, the PA lines up - it's still risky but 2 candles that tell me we could be at a top...
Danny, you are doing good with the analysis (keep a close watch as price approaches the "critical support" level) but your art work is atrocious!

There is so much on your chart, my head was in a spin just glancing at it. While all the information you have on there is valid, I am sure it would be "less grim" for the weasel if you presented it in a different manner and with a better colour scheme.

The white box around your candles is very distracting and all your lines are the same thickness - this plays havoc with the sub conscious analytical mind.

I was going to post a chart with all your information on presented in a better manner (to me) but I do understand it is a personal thing. I just know that our subconscious is very easily distracted by these small, seemingly meaningless details.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,499
  • Edited 10:16pm Aug 11, 2009 10:05pm | Edited 10:16pm

STRAT’s BOOT CAMP


Not having sufficient screen time to test my cycles stuff was becoming a worry for me especially as I saw how they reacted and were a little unstable on shorter time frames. I decided to ramp up my testing and give them the acid test – M5!

Although I needed a lot of movement and action, I didn’t need it so fast that I couldn’t decipher what was going on so I decided the Asian trading session would meet my requirements. I also didn’t want a fast moving pair for the same reasons. I devoted Sunday to use the complete Asian session on EURJPY.

This was not for the purposes of trading, only for watching how my cycles performed on shorter time frames. My strategy was that if I could get them to be useful and meaningful on short time frames, they would be good for the time frames I trade.

M5 on EURJPY on Sunday was ideal for what I wanted – not too fast and not too volatile. After 30 minutes or so on M5 watching my cycles move relative to prices, I decided to drop down to M1 for an even greater test.

How anyone can trade M1 is beyond me – even on the Asian session, things move so fast with such volatility that your brain (well mine anyway), can’t keep up. Since our brain is, and always will be, superior to any computer and software, imagine the problems indicators have taking prices from “x” bars ago and doing their calculations all in a split micro - milli - second to be immediately changed by a new price in the next milli - second.

Just for the fun of it, I put up the usual suspects to see what they looked like – Stochastics, RSI and MACD. What a joke! Even making the settings longer was a futile task – they jumped about, crossed for a milli - second then didn’t cross and then shot to extremes and back again – I was dizzy just watching them and couldn’t wait to delete them.

Unfortunately, my cycles were not as good as I hoped. Unlike oscillators, they were not jumping about all over the place but were calling cycle tops and bottoms far too early to be tradable (at this time frame). This then made the whole exercise very valuable as I now have to go back to the drawing board with my cycles.

What was even more valuable was the acceleration of learning and understanding PASR concepts this M1 time frame brings.

I accept the arguments that learning PASR on our trading time frames is slow and tedious and I fully understand the need for “action” to test ourselves in the field. While doing what I propose is far from perfect, it will, to some degree, accelerate your learning and understanding of PASR.

Here is my recommendation to all new and beginning traders to PASR:


Read AND understand the whole thread – do not flash read or skip posts.

Make sure you fully understand the main candles:

Shooting Star
Hammer
Bearish Outside Bar (BEOB)
Bearish Engulfing Bar (BEEB)
Bullish Outside Bar (BUOB)
Bullish Engulfing Bar (BUEB)
Dojis
Small range bars
Double and multiple tops and bottoms

DO NOT CONSIDER INSIDE BARS (IB)


Make sure you fully understand SUPPORT and RESISTANCE

Make sure you fully understand how to determine SUPPORT and RESISTANCE.

Make sure you fully understand what price does and how it behaves at S&R

Make sure you fully understand Fibonacci retracements

Make sure you understand CONFIRMED swings

Make sure you understand the OPEN and CLOSE prices on candles

Make sure you understand the WICKS and TAILS on candles

Make sure you understand our use of the 20 and 50 moving averages

If you understand all this then you will know and understand the concept of trading PASR. If you have reached this point and, with hand on heart, honestly don’t fully understand the concept, then go back to the beginning and keep recycling until you know it inside and out and upside and downside.


I know there will be some of you that will just jump in and do this thinking you “know it all” – if you do, and you don’t “know it all”, it will be a meaningless exercise and a waste of your time as you will learn nothing from it.

Even for those “experienced” traders, it is worthwhile to do a check to ensure you still know your “stuff”.

Now decide on a time and date where you can put aside several hours to “watch” with 100% concentration, without interruptions, the Asian trading session. Select the slowest moving pair at the time you decide to watch, then pull up your 1 minute (M1) chart.

Add the 20, 50 and S&R lines, then DO NOTHING.

DO NOT ADD ANY INDICATORS


Remember, WE ARE NOT TRADING – only OBSERVING.

If we were trading this horror of a time frame, we would first have to study the M5 time frame but for now, we are only VOYEURS.

If you haven’t already done so, ADD S&R from the next higher time frame.

The first thing to do is acclimate yourself with the time frame – just observe the motion of the candles (price).

(As I write this, I am watching USDJPY M1 test it’s Worker support.)

When you feel comfortable with the speed at which price is moving, then start paying attention.

Look at where price has been and what it has done in the 300 or so bars to the left of where price is at now. Don’t have a preconceived idea of where price is heading, just understand what price is doing at the levels it is at.

If the pair you are watching is active, you will see the 1 minute candle moving up and down as buy and sell orders are triggered.

It is also important to know, if you don’t already, that the BIG BOYS are using highly sophisticated computer software and programs to trigger trades at various conditions (prices, differentials, spreads, gaps, volumes, forward order loading, aberrations, anomalies etc.)

Watch where price opens and how it moves within S&R, watch what it does at these levels. Watch where it CLOSES. Observe the wick and tail left behind. Watch where the next candle opens relative to the prior candle and the wick and tail it leaves behind relative to the prior candle.

Watch how PASR works AND DOESN’T WORK on this time frame.

Watch how price exhausts itself. Watch how the sentiment swings to and fro between the buyers and sellers. Watch how price behaves relative to the MAs in conjunction with S&R.

Watch the ebb and flow of price activity – watch the calm before the storm.

Watch how price “trends”. Watch how a “trend” ends. Watch how another “trend” starts.

Watch how price moves in “waves” – watch the tide, watch the waves, watch the rip tides, watch the currents, watch the ripples, watch the backwash, watch the surf.

Watch how these waves are “Impulsive” and “Corrective” or, in simple terms, with the trend and a reaction to the trend. See how a reaction turns into a new “reverse” trend.

Watch again how important S&R levels are to prices. Watch how prices move from one level to the next – and back again.

Watch how the buyers are rejected at ultimate resistance and the footprints they leave behind. Watch the same for the sellers.

From all this screen time, one of the first things you should be observing and understanding is HOW and WHY the CLOSE is the MOST IMPORTANT level on a candle/bar. If this is not apparent to you, then keep watching and observing until it is.

When you study and watch this for hour after hour, you really don’t need S&R lines anymore – you can just “eyeball” the candles for these levels for they have given all their secrets away and left huge footprints behind.

Exactly the same is true for PA. After you have watched it for long enough, you can “tell” where price is headed next.

I could keep writing forever on what to see but it would only bore the pants off most people.

The objective of this exercise is to reach that point where you can “see” S&R without having to draw lines and to “see” where price is headed at these levels.

When you get to this understanding you have truly reached the level of the 5% of successful and profitable traders.

Don’t worry that you can’t do this at the first “sitting” – remember, it takes thousands of charts and thousands of hours of practice time – this is just a way of possibly reducing that learning and practice time.

If you have sat through a complete Asian trading session and are no better, knowledgeable or wiser for doing that then trading is not for you – take up tiddly winks or something equally passive!

When you do get to this level of understanding, transfer your knowledge to your chosen time frame.

Whatever you do though, do not think you now know it all and can walk on water – this is still only the beginning – remember what happened to the last bloke who thought he could walk on water?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,500
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:44pm Aug 11, 2009 10:44pm
This will be an interesting exercise, I'll try it out this week.

I have been getting bored again with the lack of good setups on the dailies so this will be good practice.
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