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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #40,541
  • Aug 10, 2009 5:43pm Aug 10, 2009 5:43pm
Quoting mseaz9
Your thoughts ...why this went wrong not yet but i feel like this PIN will fail.

I am still holding short n e one else in the same boat???
I don't think it is a Pin since it didn't break the low.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #40,542
  • Aug 10, 2009 5:43pm Aug 10, 2009 5:43pm
Quoting mseaz9
Your thoughts ...why this went wrong not yet but i feel like this PIN will fail.

I am still holding short n e one else in the same boat???
Hey Seaz

Just be careful here since the low of the pin never broke it technically is not a valid pinbar. So playing on the retrace is more aggressive and this will happen more often even though you get a bigger position size.

Best
Mike
  • #40,543
  • Aug 10, 2009 6:02pm Aug 10, 2009 6:02pm
thanx i always felt comfortable like this...but i might have to consider playing the break...
  • #40,544
  • Edited 6:23pm Aug 10, 2009 6:03pm | Edited 6:23pm
Quoting mseaz9
Your thoughts ...why this went wrong not yet but i feel like this PIN will fail.

I am still holding short n e one else in the same boat???
I have passed on that one after I saw it did not break. Even if it will break now, I won't play it. Just not feeling comfortable. but that's me.

By the way folks....anyone noticed the pin bar bounce off of the 365ema
USDCHF 4H?
Last time price it bounced 350 pips away....interesting....

Ben

Edit: I won't take it. The last bar highs most likely turn into support now

  • #40,545
  • Aug 10, 2009 6:25pm Aug 10, 2009 6:25pm
Quoting benji533
I have passed on that one after I saw it did not break. Even if it will break now, I won't play it. Just not feeling comfortable. but that's me.

By the way folks....anyone noticed the pin bar bounce off of the 365ema
USDCHF 4H?
Last time price it bounced 350 pips away....interesting....

Ben

Edit: I won't take it. The last bar highs most likely turn into support now

Yep - although, as you are certainly aware, a 365 alone is not enough - so it is a good thing we are back at a PPZ!
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #40,546
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:52pm Aug 10, 2009 7:52pm
Quoting jarroo
It there was a strong setup on Thursday before the NFP on Friday morning, I will look for a break during the London session. As the NFP approaches and Thursday's setup has not broken yet I will cancell the order. I will not play the break of the setup off the NFP release.

If a setup was formed after the NFP, I will look to trade that on Monday.
i see, you put in the safty factor before and after, thank you.

-----------------------------------------

regarding my NZDUSD trade, chart below. pending order was below pin bar which did not break. but i was filled in my oanda account, found out that the order was filled at sunday 4pm at the lowest point. do people have similar experience?

this was sunday, so not sure if related to NFP on friday or not. but i do want to ask this as a GENERAL question.

if we see a good entry at the end of friday, do we wait till late sunday night or even monday morning to put in the orders, since weekend traffic is considered to be (what's the word)not as reliable?

(i seem to remeber something similar from before, but can't find it.)
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  • #40,547
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:54pm Aug 10, 2009 7:54pm
Quoting dhh
i see, you put in the safty factor before and after, thank you.

-----------------------------------------

regarding my NZDUSD trade, chart below. pending order was below pin bar which did not break. but i was filled in my oanda account, found out that the order was filled at sunday 4pm at the lowest point. do people have similar experience?

this was sunday, so not sure if related to NFP on friday or not. but i do want to ask this as a GENERAL question.

if we see a good entry at the end of friday, do we wait till late sunday night or even monday...
Yeah if you are going to put your orders in that early you can't forget the spreads are much wider on Oanda. If you wait till sunday night when things settle back down it is better. Essentially ignoring that sunday bar if you have one is the same thing(waiting till its finished). If I have to place a trade that early it is not going to be with oanda personally.

That's how I handle it.

Mike
  • #40,548
  • Aug 10, 2009 8:17pm Aug 10, 2009 8:17pm
Quoting mbqb11
Yeah if you are going to put your orders in that early you can't forget the spreads are much wider on Oanda. If you wait till sunday night when things settle back down it is better. Essentially ignoring that sunday bar if you have one is the same thing(waiting till its finished). If I have to place a trade that early it is not going to be with oanda personally.

That's how I handle it.

Mike
thanks mike, i'll remember to note the spread size before entering, or the sunday bar.
  • #40,549
  • Aug 10, 2009 9:38pm Aug 10, 2009 9:38pm
This looks like a pretty decent short.

Shape looks great.
Location too, PPZ + wR1.
Space... might encounter some traffic on the way down @ PPZ below...
so thinking of taking profits earlier @ bottom range of PPZ around 1.0850.

I've got 1/3 of position size at 50% retracement mark of pinbar as well.

Any comments on how you guys would manage this trade please?

Thanks guys =)

Cy
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One Mind, Any Market
  • #40,550
  • Aug 10, 2009 9:46pm Aug 10, 2009 9:46pm
Quoting Cyrus
This looks like a pretty decent short.

Shape looks great.
Location too, PPZ + wR1.
Space... might encounter some traffic on the way down @ PPZ below...
so thinking of taking profits earlier @ bottom range of PPZ around 1.0850.

I've got 1/3 of position size at 50% retracement mark of pinbar as well.

Any comments on how you guys would manage this trade please?

Thanks guys =)

Cy
Hey Cy

I would be nervous trading into that top area of your PPZ (pink area) with that bar highs sticking out there. This pair has gone bullish recently(weekly small pin), so it would be tough to squeak much out of this one, or tough for me to hold it trading into this. THere isn't a ton of confluence on this pin itself. Right now you can see it bounced right where you had it marked at the top. Tough trade here to me.

Take care
Mike
  • #40,551
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:00pm Aug 10, 2009 10:00pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Cy

I would be nervous trading into that top area of your PPZ (pink area) with that bar highs sticking out there. This pair has gone bullish recently(weekly small pin), so it would be tough to squeak much out of this one, or tough for me to hold it trading into this. THere isn't a ton of confluence on this pin itself. Right now you can see it bounced right where you had it marked at the top. Tough trade here to me.

Take care
Mike
Hmmm... many thank you for the comments Mike.
Food for thought...
Still betting small while figuring out the finer details of this methodology.

On Confluence:
I thought there was a confluence of the PPZ in pink + wR1.. there's also a 61.8% retracement from a recent swing high off 1.1113.
Thought this would be a decent confluence of resistance levels.
This, plus a decent pin would = decent short term grab.

Saw the small weekly pin bar off a weekly PPZ... thought the 4hour retracing abit off this Pin would be quite reasonable.

Erm... I dont quite understand why this is not a good confluence... thought shape and location look quite decent.

Could you (or anyone else please) elaborate on what you see a little bit more? I'm clearly still quite the rookie.

Many thanks in advance Mike
Cy
One Mind, Any Market
  • #40,552
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:08pm Aug 10, 2009 10:08pm
Quoting Cyrus
Hmmm... many thank you for the comments Mike.
Food for thought...
Still betting small while figuring out the finer details of this methodology.

On Confluence:
I thought there was a confluence of the PPZ in pink + wR1.. there's also a 61.8% retracement from a recent swing high off 1.1113.
Thought this would be a decent confluence of resistance levels.
This, plus a decent pin would = decent short term grab.

Saw the small weekly pin bar off a weekly PPZ... thought the 4hour retracing abit off this Pin would be quite reasonable.

Erm... I dont...
Hey Cy

These are the bars I find most get into trouble with in general. The bar itself is really not all that big. But the confluence is really not all that much. Firstly for me actual pivot points aren't all that useful in the forex market(to me, again opinion ). The only real swing points would put us at the 23.6(which I never find all that strong, i prefer the 50 and 61.8 if anything). But again if we zoom out we can really see the size of the bar doesn't show much strength versus this recent move up(lots of support underneath now). So that bar high area, is strong in comparison to me. Which means trading into it would immediately scare me off. I drew out a possible scenario that might support your short, but again that pin alone I don't see as strong enough to trade. I just don't see that much confluence there to make it worthwhile. I more see it as a late day pin forming b/c price approached that recent high area and it was too late in the day to make a push at it. Again this isn't a clean cut system, so opinions will vary, and I can only offer how I see things. I just know for a 4hr trade, they come much better then this one, which has some clear negatives off the bat.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  • #40,553
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:14pm Aug 10, 2009 10:14pm
Quoting Cyrus
Hmmm... many thank you for the comments Mike.
Food for thought...
Still betting small while figuring out the finer details of this methodology.

On Confluence:
I thought there was a confluence of the PPZ in pink + wR1.. there's also a 61.8% retracement from a recent swing high off 1.1113.
Thought this would be a decent confluence of resistance levels.
This, plus a decent pin would = decent short term grab.

Saw the small weekly pin bar off a weekly PPZ... thought the 4hour retracing abit off this Pin would be quite reasonable.

Erm......
Price came down and found support at the bar highs marked by the arrows:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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skype: ststroud. let's talk trading.
  • #40,554
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:19pm Aug 10, 2009 10:19pm
Hi Mike,

Thank you for the help, its much appreciated.

I take away that the
(1) weekly close and
(2) the relative size of the 4hour candle wrt recent candles, as well as
(3) the amount of traffic to upside and downside

are important for the "big swing" profitability of a trade.

Will need to digest what you said and give it more thought.

Thanks again

Cy
One Mind, Any Market
  • #40,555
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:32pm Aug 10, 2009 10:32pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
4H Pinbar off the 1.4100 PPZ and Round Number.
78.6 retrace & multiple hits on a trend line.
Trouble around the 1.4175 area, will have to watch the trade fairly close, but the idea is that the uptrend will continue.
additional view on eur$
[ Bulbrokers STS MT4; GMT + 3: same timezone as FxPro, SIG, FXDD, MT4NF, etc.. ]

eur$ H4 showing a ascending broadening wedge/broadening pattern (Dodger Blue line) + trendline touch + MACD hidden bullish divergence. the hidden bull.div. denotes a possible (up) trend continuation.
white line & dotted line are parallel lines

eur$ Daily chart showing a ascending parallel line (Aqua) & the lingering MACD bear.divergence (Aqua). Not sure if this divergence has already been satisfied/negated by the recent downmove to the 1.41 area. (disregard the red line on MACD: it just shows price tops coinciding with MACD tops/highs)

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  • #40,556
  • Aug 10, 2009 11:54pm Aug 10, 2009 11:54pm
Quoting StoragePro
No worries - It takes time.



Yes - swing highs are the place for these bars. And your PB did not fail. It broke the bottom - went ot the bar highs, and reversed. Happens frequently that way against the trend.
Could I clarify this point?

And your PB did not fail. It broke the bottom - went ot the bar highs, and reversed. Happens frequently that way against the trend.

Don't quite understand what you mean
  • #40,557
  • Aug 11, 2009 12:07am Aug 11, 2009 12:07am
GBPUSD H4 Time Frame BUOB formed

Comments on this setup wanted
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  • #40,558
  • Aug 11, 2009 12:13am Aug 11, 2009 12:13am
GBPJPY H4

Pro: BEOB Formed, High of BEOB at Whole Number and PPZ, Low of BEOB (entry level) is below a PPZ so if entry at 158.80 should miss recent low and PPZ, 1st take profit level 150EMA (Red MA)
Con: Not swing high, used as continuation pattern

Comments wanted

Guys sorry I have been posting so much just wanted to look, practice and practice and to reach perfection, you have to practice PERFECTLY.
I just want any misconceptions removed.

Am I missing out anything I should check etc?
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  • #40,559
  • Edited 2:28am Aug 11, 2009 12:19am | Edited 2:28am
Quoting tradertt
Could I clarify this point?

And your PB did not fail. It broke the bottom - went ot the bar highs, and reversed. Happens frequently that way against the trend.

Don't quite understand what you mean

Hey tradertt.

When a high quality PA setup presents itself, what makes it "high quality"?

There's Location (PPZ Levels), supporting confluences (Swing highs/lows at fib levels, 50% retrace levels, etc. )

Another "high quality" characteristic that a setup must have, that Mike and others talk about all the time, is "Low Traffic". What is traffic? Its the previous Highs and Lows that the setup is trading into. The Highs and Lows by themselves or meeting together formimg S/R levels or PPZ levels. We don't want to be trading into many of these levels, the fewer . . . the better.


Notice that the green PB had less traffic then the blue PB. Thus a better result. This is another reason why we like PA at these swing Highs and Lows : Less Traffic.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #40,560
  • Aug 11, 2009 12:27am Aug 11, 2009 12:27am
Quoting tradertt
GBPUSD H4 Time Frame BUOB formed

Comments on this setup wanted
I think it'll bounce, but not based on that candle - very weak outside bar - more an indecision one ..
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