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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #40,421
  • Aug 8, 2009 10:36am Aug 8, 2009 10:36am
Quoting Rocket!
Thanks for the warm welcome guys. Much appreciated.

Heres that weekly pin on CAD-CHF from last week. I had my sell order in on the break of support at .9845. It broke this with good momentum on friday morning after testing the .9855 level on a few previous occasions during the week.

BUT...being a NFP Friday and all, anything can happen and this sucker went straight back up like a raging bull to end the week hovering at the psychological resistance point of 1.0000.

I realise I could have had .9800 marked as my first target zone(which I probably...
Good decent chart Rocket,

How I wish I could have replied to your queries but my monitor won't allow me, It's flickering so bad I feel it's gonna burst...

I'll see how soon I can get this fixed...

Can't blame him though, dear old friend supported me 14 long years (pat pat)

And anyways there are better ppl out there to respond...

You're on the right track is what you need to know

G
I believe . . .
  • #40,422
  • Aug 8, 2009 12:08pm Aug 8, 2009 12:08pm
Quoting ghous
Good decent chart Rocket,

How I wish I could have replied to your queries but my monitor won't allow me, It's flickering so bad I feel it's gonna burst...

I'll see how soon I can get this fixed...

Can't blame him though, dear old friend supported me 14 long years (pat pat)

And anyways there are better ppl out there to respond...

You're on the right track is what you need to know

G
Thanks for the words of encouragement Ghous, means a lot!

Hope your monitor gets a fresh kick of life. Although, at 14 years, its put up a fair fight! They don't make em like they used to eh? Maybe its telling you to invest in that pro set up you deserve. Lets hope you get another 14 years out of that when you do!

All the best

Dermot
  • #40,423
  • Aug 8, 2009 12:56pm Aug 8, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting ghous
This seems a problem to me,

It hasn't really formed off the highs but rather it's over and above the highs,

But given it's off 1.7 it might still be very much playable...

just suggesting that one of the pros might in reality be a hidden con...

G.

That's the beauty of this potential trade. If Price breaks below the PB, the 1.6700-1.6600ish area will now be a nicely formed Weekly PPZ level i.e. PPZ level as your friend (red lines). I am very aware of the potential up move Price can likely move (blue lines). But the added confluences supporting this PB gives me the green flag.


Thanks ghous.


Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #40,424
  • Aug 8, 2009 12:57pm Aug 8, 2009 12:57pm
Quoting datogio
the most attractive opportunity IMO, with every key moment, confluence of ppz and round number, divergence, deep retracement (50-61%), and enough space for management.

the only negative moment i can see is that its counter trend

lets see how it plays

EDIT: NZD/USD error in headline

Very Nice datogio. I'll be watching this.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #40,425
  • Aug 8, 2009 1:06pm Aug 8, 2009 1:06pm
Happy Saturday everyone.

I have been reading some of the commentary and would like to encourage our newer and learning traders to make simplicity the watchword.

You'll read some of the seasoned traders comments and they will often wax eloquent on some of the finer details and possibilities. And while doing this, never waver from the conclusions gained from the the simple PA as it presents itself.

Why do I say this? Because it is frightenly easy to lose ourselves and our bearings.

Hence -

Look at the location PA is at - PA that is solid occurs at a PPZ

Look at the bar itself - is it clearly what you think it is?

Is the bar large enough to be convincing?

Is there confluence? A 50 or 68.1% fib; MACD or RSI divergence? A trendline touch? Is it with the trend?

Does it have some room to go and not trading into a PPZ?

Most other thoughts past this will prevent you from taking the good trades and get you into the bad ones.

I've been there.

Onto setting goals.

You are hear to make money - right? If you were'nt, you be on the job with a charity instead of reading my drivel. To make money - you need to set some goals.

What percent per week is yours? Think about it. If it is 5%, compounding will make you very rich in a short time.

And you are thinking all wrong.

Think process and the market will come to you.

May I suggest this goal for this week coming up?

Take no risky trades. You will be surprised how good you'll feel if you can get thru this one week controlling your stupid side. (Trust me - I know this to be true)

Now forward one week - repeat. Forward another - repeat.
Forward again - repeat.
Never let a winner turn into a loser. BE is fine and dandy.

One month. No bad trades. Skip every iffy one. Take only the great setups.

If you can do that, you will be a trader. You will have proved it because it will be the best month of your new career. By far.

And you'll have learned something - how to trade.

Make this not one month goal, but two. Here is why - and this is interesting.

It takes 6 weeks (about) to make or break a habit. Look it up! It takes six weeks of exercise for your body to respond to it - that is why all those commercials talk about "in just six weeks you'll be Charles Atlas".

Physiologically, our brain works the same way - it takes about six weeks for a new thinking pattern to begin to implant itself. New pathways form, and over time become dominant.

So, if you understand the foundations taught here, you are about six weeks away from the breakthrough you desire. You will not be complete, and there will be lots to do, but you will have both feet firmly on the road.

If you are working on the fundamentals of PA still, take heart - apply yourself over the next - you guessed it - six weeks. Reveiw the charts every day on a couple timeframes. Spot and mark PPZ's and find the confluence.

Six weeks. And you will be on the road.

But it takes conscious effort.

Can you do it?

Will you?

See you again after the third week of September. Write down where you are as a trader today. In six weeks, you will a completely different person.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #40,426
  • Aug 8, 2009 1:22pm Aug 8, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting StoragePro
Happy Saturday everyone.

I have been reading some of the commentary and would like to encourage our newer and learning traders to make simplicity the watchword.

You'll read some of the seasoned traders comments and they will often wax eloquent on some of the finer details and possibilities. And while doing this, never waver from the conclusions gained from the the simple PA as it presents itself.

Why do I say this? Because it is frightenly easy to lose ourselves and our bearings.

Hence -

Look at the location PA is at - PA that is solid...
True,

very true...
I believe . . .
  • #40,427
  • Aug 8, 2009 1:23pm Aug 8, 2009 1:23pm
Quoting jarroo
That's the beauty of this potential trade. If Price breaks below the PB, the 1.6700-1.6600ish area will now be a nicely formed Weekly PPZ level i.e. PPZ level as your friend (red lines). I am very aware of the potential up move Price can likely move (blue lines). But the added confluences supporting this PB gives me the green flag.


Thanks ghous.


Jim
Sure,

And then if price can give us a "quick hard jarroo" style break, the 166 should hold nicely as resistance.
I believe . . .
  • #40,428
  • Aug 8, 2009 1:29pm Aug 8, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting ghous
Sure,

And then if price can give us a "quick hard jarroo" style break, the 166 should hold nicely as resistance.
It would sure make the trade a lot easier. lol

I wouldn't mind a slow plotting downward move as well.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #40,429
  • Aug 8, 2009 1:40pm Aug 8, 2009 1:40pm
Quoting StoragePro
Happy Saturday everyone.
I have been reading some of the commentary and would like to encourage our newer and learning traders to make simplicity the watchword.

May I suggest this goal for this week coming up? Take no risky trades.
Learning when not trade is part of learning to trade. It's one of those things that takes time to sink in. For me it is slowly starting to get through my thick skull.

Very nice post.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #40,430
  • Aug 8, 2009 1:48pm Aug 8, 2009 1:48pm
Quoting StoragePro
Happy Saturday everyone.

I have been reading some of the commentary and would like to encourage our newer and learning traders to make simplicity the watchword.

You'll read some of the seasoned traders comments and they will often wax eloquent on some of the finer details and possibilities. And while doing this, never waver from the conclusions gained from the the simple PA as it presents itself.

Why do I say this? Because it is frightenly easy to lose ourselves and our bearings.

Hence -

Look at the location PA is at - PA that...
Great post. I have found it helpful, especially when I was starting out, to have a checklist, whether mental or written out, for each trade. I have a list of rules pinned on the wall beside me monitor. Sometimes, for the longer tf trades, I will make the checklist and look at it hours later, or even the next day. This has saved me from a few really bad trades Sometimes, I look back and wonder what I was thinking! As for setting goals, my weekly goal is >= 0%. It's been said thousands of times on FF....successful traders are concerned with how much they can potentially lose, not how much they can potentially make. Anyways.....everyone have a great rest of the weekend!
skype: ststroud. let's talk trading.
  • #40,431
  • Aug 8, 2009 2:01pm Aug 8, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting Rocket!
Thanks for the words of encouragement Ghous, means a lot!

Hope your monitor gets a fresh kick of life. Although, at 14 years, its put up a fair fight! They don't make em like they used to eh? Maybe its telling you to invest in that pro set up you deserve. Lets hope you get another 14 years out of that when you do!

All the best

Dermot
hey there,

It's breathing well for now so let's go through your post...

just for reference this is post # 40419 from Rocket.

Quote
hanks for the warm welcome guys. Much appreciated.
Our pleasure.

Quote
Heres that weekly pin on CAD-CHF from last week. I had my sell order in on the break of support at .9845. It broke this with good momentum on friday morning after testing the .9855 level on a few previous occasions during the week.

BUT...being a NFP Friday and all, anything can happen and this sucker went straight back up like a raging bull to end the week hovering at the psychological resistance point of 1.0000.

I realise I could have had .9800 marked as my first target zone(which I probably should have!) as there has been previous PA in this...
I would want you to read what STO posted a few posts above this...stuff worth more than it's weight in gold, and my response to Jazz's post before that

Cad/Chf was no where near a trade you could risk your money on given the stage you're at.

A side way's market and lot's of spatial concerns, these trades although not entirely untradable require immense experience and skill in their management. Your thought process needs to be clear as crystal and your reflexes against anything that the market has to offer need to be ultra honed.

The fact that you're still in this trade with all cards on the table when you should have really just taken some or all off at the 9800 level goes on to suggest you're far from well equipped to handle such situations, and honest to God they can be as subtle as you can ever imagine...

for newbies the equation simplifies to "less than A+ = No trade"...that is if your greed and impatience will allow you to swallow this

Quote
One of the first things I see at fault with my chart is that there is almost definitely too many lines fluttering about. I'm not too confident in my drawing of major PPZ zones yet, and would appreciate any advice people have to offer in ensuring that I only take heed of lines that WILL lead to A grade setups.
I would highly recomend the PA videos at the J16 PF guest section, Jim did some class acts with these "friendly zones",

besides just make sure you only have the needed lines that lie around current PA, the really obvious ones are very few...keep your charts bare so you can watch price carefully rather than tilt sideways and peep through MAs and loads of fibs or pivot points, all these can come in and go away as and when a trade setup develops or diminshes.

Quote
What I had been previously doing was looking at the weekly and monthly charts and plotting visible areas of support and resistance often where price consolidated for a while then with SBR or RBS.
That's still the way you should do it, a line or 2 on the monthly, another 1 or 2 on the weekly and the daily and that's it...

Not sure what you mean by SBR & RBS

Quote
One last thing to note is that the current weekly bar is tough to read. It could be a bullish hammer pattern and sign of the continuation of the current bull trend. Or it could be interpreted as the bearish hanging man pattern. Both patterns arnt the most reliable but noteworthy all the same.
To hell with it,

We're not here to trade or read every bar, what we need is the general direction and few prominent PA bars leading the way,

If you're worried abt your current trade, you should just let it hit your SL if it does and learn from it,

Gosh I love my loosers, they teach me, the winners just make me so godamn proud of myself for nothing

Quote
Heres the chart. Pardon the messiness
It'll go away,

your's is still far better than how I drew it for the first time, I remember Pming James abt a serious problem, I could not trade even on the 4H (let alone daily and above as was instructed to me) because every trade had at most just 20 pips till the next ppz/trend line I wonder If he still has it...lol

right that's it,

See ya around Rocket,

Ghous.
Attached Image
I believe . . .
  • #40,432
  • Aug 8, 2009 2:20pm Aug 8, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Learning when not trade is part of learning to trade. It's one of those things that takes time to sink in. For me it is slowly starting to get through my thick skull.

Very nice post.
Yeah - everyone has things to improve. I am going to take on the next six weeks to pointedly address mine. I am also going to sharpen what is strong already.

Join me?
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #40,433
  • Aug 8, 2009 2:47pm Aug 8, 2009 2:47pm
Quoting StoragePro
Yeah - everyone has things to improve. I am going to take on the next six weeks to pointedly address mine. I am also going to sharpen what is strong already.

Join me?
Sure, I have a list of things that need work, I'll pick one this weekend, I got 6 weeks.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #40,434
  • Aug 8, 2009 3:18pm Aug 8, 2009 3:18pm
Quoting StoragePro
Happy Saturday everyone.

I have been reading some of the commentary and would like to encourage our newer and learning traders to make simplicity the watchword.

You'll read some of the seasoned traders comments and they will often wax eloquent on some of the finer details and possibilities. And while doing this, never waver from the conclusions gained from the the simple PA as it presents itself.

Why do I say this? Because it is frightenly easy to lose ourselves and our bearings.

Hence -

Look at the location PA is at - PA that is solid...
Excellent post SP,

Time is something most of us have lots of (touch wood). If we can forget about making money and concentrate on learning how to trade, using this material then we have a chance. All it takes in a MT4 demo account, 30 mins a day looking at the charts and maybe 10 hours a week reading the thread. Stick to this for 6-12 months and you will have a solid profitable trading skillset.

If you can train yourself to choose the setups on daily/weekly then manage them in an agile way (forget R:R, take the best setups and let the market exit for you), then you can make decent % a month. You can advance to getting smaller stops using entries on 4 or 1hr, but still using the analysis from daily and above and the quality those higher TFs give. The potential is huge, all you need to do is invest a year or two of time.

While doing this you could be saving so when yo go live you can be trading maybe 1 lot with a good tight entry.

The beauty is by the time you go live you should have a trading record behind you, confidence in your skills, a limitless amount of oppurtuniutes to improve and a account size that you can compound to the size Jim talks about in a few years.

We have a plan, all you need to do is execute it. Reading this thread is absoultley vital, im only at page 220 and I have learned shitloads more.

We have all done the spreadsheet where we work out we can retire to our own island with just 20 pips a day. Once we get past that and decide its a 5-10 year plan then we can begin to relax and just learn without worrying about getting rich in a year or two.

Regards

Mark
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #40,435
  • Aug 8, 2009 3:22pm Aug 8, 2009 3:22pm
very well said storagepro....

Ghous...ditto




note: I think I need to put up some of these crosses - I feel I'm missing out on some fun...problem is...I like it when my trading is boring...what a dilemma
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #40,436
  • Aug 8, 2009 4:24pm Aug 8, 2009 4:24pm
I have a question for those more experienced than I - I have been looking at the pinbar on the weekly GBP/USD chart and comparing it with what appears to be a retrace back down to the top of the ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart. As far as my understanding goes of TA, this would be expected and should precede a strong upward movement. However, from what I have learnt so far following this thread on price action, we have a pinbar off of a historically significant PPZ which is also at the 50% ret level of the major move down following the "meltdown". So this should indicate a move down?

So my question is this - if you use price action, do you ignore technical analysis?
Or, do you use TA to help decide whether or not it is a high prob' trade or one to watch from the sidelines?

As a beginner, I would be grateful for any responses to this although I probably wont reply until tomorrow - my wife is going to pull the plug out if I don't sign off soon!

Thanks in advance.
  • #40,437
  • Aug 8, 2009 5:18pm Aug 8, 2009 5:18pm
A pibar at a PPZ and with confluence with a fib does indedd point towards a bounce down.

How far? I have no idea, but look for bar highs and price flips underneath to know where price may stall.

As far as a big drop - no one can read those tea leaves. Just play what you see.

It may indeed go higher soon - or lower. It may even move sideways for a bit (and I would say that is likely).

Cheers - and it is apparent you understand the material
Quoting One day!
have a question for those more experienced than I - I have been looking at the...
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #40,438
  • Aug 8, 2009 6:01pm Aug 8, 2009 6:01pm
Quoting ghous
hey there,

It's breathing well for now so let's go through your post...
...


Thanks so much for your detailed response Ghous. It was so clear and concise. Really helped me to understand what we really should be doing here.

I'm gonna let this play out like you said. Its small pips in the grander scheme of things. And its always going to be one Im going to remember. From now on though, I'm going to focus on learning and having the patience to wait for those A+ setups that any idiot could handle. KISS(Keep It Simple Stupid) is the way forward I guess!

Oh, by SBR and RBS I meant Support becoming Resistance, and Resistance becoming Support respectively.

Thanks again for all your attention, its been a great help. I mightnt get to keep fully up to date with everyone here until September comes around, but I'll keep an eye on those charts(Daily and Weekly) and you can be sure I'm going to nail this thing after that!

Take care
Dermot
  • #40,439
  • Aug 8, 2009 6:19pm Aug 8, 2009 6:19pm
Quoting StoragePro
Happy Saturday everyone.

I have been reading some of the commentary and would like to encourage our newer and learning traders to make simplicity the watchword.

You'll read some of the seasoned traders comments and they will often wax eloquent on some of the finer details and possibilities. And while doing this, never waver from the conclusions gained from the the simple PA as it presents itself.

Why do I say this? Because it is frightenly easy to lose ourselves and our bearings.
...
Outstanding post. Really, an absolute revelation.

You really simplified down exactly what we want to achieve here and set about a foolproof way of achieving it. Just like Ghous' reply to my earlier post, its a real eye-opener and a great big push in the right direction.

At the end of the day, if we're picky enough, manage our stops with regimental efficiency then the profits will eventually come to us. Setting percentage targets is a bad way of playing this game. Its only going to lead to hope and greed, when we should be trading with laser precision aiming for areas of support, resistance and confluence. Thats what its all about.

Thanks Sto, I'm saving your post and printing that baby out. Its a keeper.

Oh by the way, I'm game for your challenge. Gonna set myself 9 weeks though because of exams. Hope you dont mind me playing catch up.

Thanks
  • #40,440
  • Aug 8, 2009 8:28pm Aug 8, 2009 8:28pm
Quoting dhh
1st chart post here. like to take this opportunity to thank J16 for creating this thread, and the contributors for making it a long time success. you can tell i learn certain things here from my trade approach.

two sideways trades as i see them. stops are above/below pa, entries when break.

i was struggling btw CADJPY and EURJPY. CADJPY has divergence as a plus, but its pin didn't exactly make the high. EURJPY's pin made the high of the swing. chose to trade EURJPY.

welcome all comments.
EURGBP was not going as expected, so i killed it for -72pips. if the bar on friday was neutral to even a little bullish i would let it run, but instead it formed a bearish bar and even closed at the low of the day. wondering if how the PA old timers would manage this differently?

in retro, EURJPY didn't trigger, and CADJPY would' triggered and stopped out. so got lucky on this one.
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