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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #20,621
  • Aug 6, 2009 12:59pm Aug 6, 2009 12:59pm
and also we could use DDE to keep an eye on our profit/loss and other MM tool's in real time.
  • #20,622
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:55pm Aug 6, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting nasir.khan
what would be the difference if we simply copy paste the data in excel in just some ticks ahh sorry clicks.
well, using a database you can easily manage your data and make advanced query to have complex data mining. For istance you can group your gain/loss by year, month, week very quickly, but actually it's only a matter of habit, since you can do the same also with excel...
Perhaps you cannot insert a trade screenshot in excel for each trade, while in access you can copy-past one or more screenshot for each row and quickly view them by doubleclick. This is the main reason I'm trying to use access instead excel as tradebook.

cheers,
Andy
  • #20,623
  • Aug 6, 2009 7:36pm Aug 6, 2009 7:36pm
Just want to ask some opinion regarding TC at EU. do anybody see TC forming at EU right now? is it still valid after price have already penetrate MA 8 and MA 21. i'm just a little bit confused right now. do any off you will take TC at EU if showing signal. because today is friday and we have NFP news to ponder on.
  • #20,624
  • Aug 6, 2009 11:43pm Aug 6, 2009 11:43pm
True that anything you do to data in Access you still can do in Excel with more effort, but I like the idea of having different options in front of everyone. Thank you Andy and Please post your work in the thread
  • #20,625
  • Aug 7, 2009 6:08am Aug 7, 2009 6:08am
Gu in 4h is shaping a RB with support of TL and 50% retracement level
and gave a lower high in 1h.

I know it's NFP coming up but the trade required a small stop and i might catch wave.

Wish me luck.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,626
  • Aug 7, 2009 6:45am Aug 7, 2009 6:45am
Quoting nasir.khan
Gu in 4h is shaping a RB with support of TL and 50% retracement level
and gave a lower high in 1h.

I know it's NFP coming up but the trade required a small stop and i might catch wave.

Wish me luck.
Mr Nasir. what is your target for the trade you open for GU. i think i'm gonna wait for signal at 4hr and wait after news. market is too unpredictable during news.
  • #20,627
  • Aug 7, 2009 8:30am Aug 7, 2009 8:30am
Quoting bobypires
Mr Nasir. what is your target for the trade you open for GU. i think i'm gonna wait for signal at 4hr and wait after news. market is too unpredictable during news.
I did not had a target in mind when i was 90 pips up i set my SL to BE cause i was eying the big wave up but you could guess what happened next and i only traded 1000 lots so could not take partial profits cause that's the minimum for my broker.
  • #20,628
  • Aug 7, 2009 9:37am Aug 7, 2009 9:37am
Got in with a shorter timeframe with the news being dollar positive.

The 4hr might try to get down to the to the bottom of the trendline channel which is also the 200.

On the weekly, if the 50% is broken to the downside then we may see the 3700 level, remember this is weekly. Either way, if this move continues down with the strong employment #'s then this might be a fundamental change in this pair...
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  • #20,629
  • Aug 7, 2009 10:07am Aug 7, 2009 10:07am
did anyone predicted the bearish move at EU today using this system?if anyone can predict that bearish move do share it with me. just want to know how you do it. because i can't see anyone following this system can catch the bearish move.
  • #20,630
  • Aug 7, 2009 10:45am Aug 7, 2009 10:45am
Quoting bobypires
did anyone predicted the bearish move at EU today using this system?if anyone can predict that bearish move do share it with me. just want to know how you do it. because i can't see anyone following this system can catch the bearish move.
hmm. such things due just to the market, doubt it can be predicted.
  • #20,631
  • Aug 7, 2009 11:04am Aug 7, 2009 11:04am
Quoting bobypires
did anyone predicted the bearish move at EU today using this system?if anyone can predict that bearish move do share it with me. just want to know how you do it. because i can't see anyone following this system can catch the bearish move.
Yes I saw the EU/US as a valid signal but I chickened out and passed it because of NFP and was afraid the GBP might rebound after it's big sell off and drag up the EUR but I would have taken it if not for Non Farm Payroll Friday.
Good luck the Method is a good one.
  • #20,632
  • Aug 7, 2009 12:49pm Aug 7, 2009 12:49pm
Quoting bobypires
did anyone predicted the bearish move at EU today using this system?if anyone can predict that bearish move do share it with me. just want to know how you do it. because i can't see anyone following this system can catch the bearish move.

boby:

I think the only real technical set-up here was that price was at the top of the channel and price had stalled; waiting for the news to come out. I think that this NFP report was a little more important than previous one's because there was a lot of talk about the US Economy starting to recover. There will always be those 'analysts' that say something else down the line but when the numbers come out at that moment, that's what will move the currencies = living for the moment. When the numbers were $ positive it was simply a matter of waiting for price to settle down a little (let the volatility simmer) and then let the pair react to the news correctly.

If this was a non-news day I think the only way to use the 4hr here would be to wait for price for price to break out of this 4hr range and get legs again. You'll find that it can be days or even a week or so (if you're following one pair) that can go by without a trade on the 4hr. One clue to weakness here would be the close below the 21: white dahsed line. This tells me that the current run up may be stalling and a change may occur at some point. IN other words this would have been a 'sit on your hands' trade if there was no news...

Just a note: there is a year's worth of charts to dowload on the site that you can print out for the 1hr and 4hr to make notes on...
Visit here: http://www.fxtradeblog.com/tools.html#practicecharts

I'm still holding one at +200 right here, closed one out for a bunch earlier, in the event that this is a longer term run down.

Have a good weekend everyone...
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  • #20,633
  • Edited 2:29am Aug 8, 2009 1:39am | Edited 2:29am
IMHO the whole of last week was a good example of the saying "BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS"

The green dotted line shows EU on the Wednesday before last (29th July). It has been in that box range in between the purple lines since end of May. Mostly it has been below the 1.4200 level.

On Thursday (30th July), Friday (31st July) and Monday (3rd August), traders with deep pockets were buying in anticipation of the good NFP news release. They pushed it outside of the box range in just a few days.
This explains why even though the NFP news release was very good on Friday, there was a big sell off.
Now EU is back where it was before all this happened - inside the box range.

That's why I call it NFP week - because it is erratic all week not just on Friday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,634
  • Aug 8, 2009 5:23am Aug 8, 2009 5:23am
Quoting xeneric
IMHO the whole of last week was a good example of the saying "BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS"

The green dotted line shows EU on the Wednesday before last (29th July). It has been in that box range in between the purple lines since end of May. Mostly it has been below the 1.4200 level.

On Thursday (30th July), Friday (31st July) and Monday (3rd August), traders with deep pockets were buying in anticipation of the good NFP news release. They pushed it outside of the box range in just a few days.
This explains why even though the NFP...
Hi Xeneric,
were there news that the NFP will be good? I m not that experienced but good NFP does not equate to better currency?

The yens, however, move according to the good news though, as gd news resulted in better stock market which is in a way correlated to the yen pairs which go up....

but actually any one has a single clue about the possible movement in the pairs from now on? I dun see any MAs, support lines around. The EU has a a support line near; maybe it will move down before bouncing back? but i surely do not relish a further large movement down..q
  • #20,635
  • Edited 7:34am Aug 8, 2009 6:15am | Edited 7:34am
Quoting yuan83
Hi Xeneric,
were there news that the NFP will be good? I m not that experienced but good NFP does not equate to better currency?

The yens, however, move according to the good news though, as gd news resulted in better stock market which is in a way correlated to the yen pairs which go up....

but actually any one has a single clue about the possible movement in the pairs from now on? I dun see any MAs, support lines around. The EU has a a support line near; maybe it will move down before bouncing back? but i surely do not relish a further...
I didn't hear that the NFP news release was going to be good either but many were expecting that the economic recovery was already underway in the US and for people who read Bloomberg (Aug 2nd/3rd/6th) and follow the ISM releases, the indications were definitely there. Also, the major banks and institutions which have very deep pockets for trading forex have ways and means of doing their own research on the unemployment figures etc.
  • #20,636
  • Aug 8, 2009 9:21am Aug 8, 2009 9:21am
Quoting Palmer
boby:

I think the only real technical set-up here was that price was at the top of the channel and price had stalled; waiting for the news to come out. I think that this NFP report was a little more important than previous one's because there was a lot of talk about the US Economy starting to recover. There will always be those 'analysts' that say something else down the line but when the numbers come out at that moment, that's what will move the currencies = living for the moment. When the numbers were $ positive it was simply a matter of waiting...
Palmer,

thanks for the explanation. just want to ask you a few question. could you explain why you decide to short EU? did you use 4hr MACD strategy to open or other method? sorry to ask lot of question but i still trying to understand this method. thank you in advance for your help.
  • #20,637
  • Aug 8, 2009 2:14pm Aug 8, 2009 2:14pm
First of All for this profitable system, Phillip. For second. İ advise to get order earlier than H1 confirmation. For example from 5 or 15 M. Using pending orders at local min(maxs). What can you tell about this?
Think like an investor, Act as a speculator. Ferid H.
  • #20,638
  • Aug 8, 2009 8:16pm Aug 8, 2009 8:16pm
Quoting Feliks
First of All for this profitable system, Phillip. For second. İ advise to get order earlier than H1 confirmation. For example from 5 or 15 M. Using pending orders at local min(maxs). What can you tell about this?
Hi Feliks,
Phillip prefers us to use the 1 hr for an early entry because the higher the time frame, the more reliable it is. However, some of the people who are familiar with his 5 minute intraday system which is also on FF will get in via the 5 minute. It depends on what style suits you but the most important thing with this system is that you understand the 4 hr chart and price action on the 4 hr and daily. You have to know all the rules relating to these time frames before using the lower time frames for entry. Otherwise you are not trading this system. Hope that helps.
  • #20,639
  • Aug 9, 2009 8:52am Aug 9, 2009 8:52am
I am doing back testing with 1 Hrs early entry if possible with the rules of 4Hrs system. Some times I have to put 60 pips SL. If I think that the setup is good and could produce R:R 1:1 is it better to skip the deal or to reduce on HALF my entry lot size as I could put average 30-40pips SL only according Money Manegment 2% from my total. What is better for long time run?
I have read all the info from this thread about putting SL for long candles but I do not saw such kind of doing big signal candles.
I know for fib retracement on signal candle and 3 way of entering after retrace.
I know and for putting SL on strong TL or some MA if it posible.
I know and for early entry where I coud reduce my SL if I enter early but sometimes the last ONE hour candle/from four ones/ is about 60 pips and exactly then I have the right signal for entering.That is why I ask such kind of question.
Thank you in advance and please excuse me if I am thinking the wrong way in my explanation.Still learning and try to put all the things in my head the corect way.
  • #20,640
  • Aug 9, 2009 10:20am Aug 9, 2009 10:20am
I'll show you we can do that. Using low TF for entry.
This is first sign for coming entry. Because we are near Uptrend's support..
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/2885/proqnozo.gif
For this entry i prefer this MACD signals;
DB,DT,LH,HL,
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/5208/analiz.gif
Then you see your H1 signal. So you are on right way. Another way to earn from this strategy more pips than this strategy prefer. How? This way.
If you can see we use 5m for entry and wait for our order went in profit area. Then we wait for forming local max in H1. For opening our second order. After this one we wait for our 2 order (red lines) when it be in profit. Before opening 3 order we move our SL's (green lines) to 2 order's Open Price. For 3 order again we use local max for entry. Even your last order doesn't go in profit (5 order for exp. which i didn't draw) any you will win 3-4 order's TP. Actually I do that. 4H strategy+channel strategy=Bravo
http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/3368/proqnoztau.gif
Think like an investor, Act as a speculator. Ferid H.
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