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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #8,721
  • Aug 5, 2009 11:27pm Aug 5, 2009 11:27pm
Quoting eswgfx
What happens if the price hits your BS at 1.4325 (on bouncing back up from, say, 1.4300) and then decides to keep moving south? It may keep on going up to 1.4200 or even 1.4150 as you say, causing you to meet your SL. Just a thought.
Hi eswgfx,

Whichever method you use to plan your entries, it's just plain impossible to be always right. Having said that, I believe that as long as you try to increase the odds in your favor (as per Joe's plan) and pair this with some good MM skills, you only need to be right 51% of the times to be profitable in the long run...

My 0.02 pips.
  • #8,722
  • Aug 6, 2009 2:04am Aug 6, 2009 2:04am
Quoting Joe T
Those who trade this successfully must have some feedback on whether my approach outlined above is remotely in the ballpark, or has some other recommendation.
Hello again Joe T,

I have been trading this way with success for some time now so I can say that this approach is in the right area (although I still feel 25 pips is a bit tight... but that's just me!).

Can I ask though... when you are talking about seeing double bounces etc... what time frame are you looking at? In my experience seeing a double bounce (forming a double bottom / W shape) on a 1 hour chart is a good indication for this method. But if you were waiting for that to happen on a daily chart I think you would be overdoing it a bit (for these types of trades).

Regards,

Dan
  • #8,723
  • Edited 5:36am Aug 6, 2009 2:53am | Edited 5:36am
Quoting Joe T
Those who trade this successfully must have some feedback on whether my approach outlined above is remotely in the ballpark, or has some other recommendation. I am aware that many here use Price Action according to J16. I'm quite certain Jacko and many of the turtles don't use that, so what is a sound approach that doesn't require PA?
Hi Joe T,

Good question here. This is something I'm also working on...

I can neither speak for Jacko, nor for any Turtles (as I hardly chat with any of them) but only for myself. Personally, although I trade Jacko style, when it becomes to picking entries I always rely on PA around the level. I always check for PA setups, patterns, signs of exhaustion, etc. before I decide it's time for me to enter the trade. I hardly rely on Pending Orders as I believe they can be a double edged sword. As I've mentioned before (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2782289&postcount=7948), many times I've lost prime trades stubbornly waiting for 'my entry' while seeing Jacko riding those trades a few hundred pips into the green... the flip of the coin is, I've also seeing Jacko entering trades while I've patiently waited for my entry according to 'my rules' and have successfully taken those trades at a much better level. At the end of the day, I guess it all depends in how much screen time you are willing to spend. Having said that, I've also come to the conclusion that many times Jacko has an UNCANNY view of the markets and relies on plain gut feeling to take his trades. I've witnessed Jacko placing Pending Orders (something he rarely does) and then PA hitting his entries to the pip. A couple of Fridays ago he placed a CT Sell Limit order during early Euro session order at 1.4250, few hours later, PA traveled up to his entry -to the pip- like a magnet, before dropping. I was like wow... There were no main PPZ or S/Rs around that area (besides being a mid-psych RND number). BTW, I lost that trade while waiting for my entry at 1.4300... ouchh!. I don't believe, however that Jacko blindly enters a trade just because it's the number he has in mind. After all, his comments are always like "I'm a seller/buyer at xxx or better". That "or better" means he is closely monitoring PA as it gets to his desired entry level, and then enters the trade at the best possible price as soon as he sees PA making a U-turn.

Hope this can be of any help,

Cheers,
  • #8,724
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:12am Aug 6, 2009 4:12am
Quoting Jpnek
Hi Joe T,

Good question here. This is something I'm also working on...

I can neither speak for Jacko, nor for any Turtles (as I hardly chat with any of them) but only for myself. Personally, although I trade Jacko style, when it becomes to picking entries I always rely on PA around the level. I always check for PA setups, patterns, signs of exhaustion, etc. before I decide it's time for me to enter the trade. I hardly rely on Pending Orders as I believe they can be a double edged sword. As I've [url="http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2782289&postcount=7948"]mentioned...

forgive me for asking but are you sure that jacko short the market? the trend is up. maybe he has started taking the counter trend moves. but i doubt it. but things change..who knows.
  • #8,725
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:42am Aug 6, 2009 4:42am
Quoting spotless1212
forgive me for asking but are you sure that jacko short the market? the trend is up. maybe he has started taking the counter trend moves. but i doubt it. but things change..who knows.
No need to doubt it, spotless. We had some really profitable CTs on July.

Regards,
  • #8,726
  • Aug 6, 2009 5:15am Aug 6, 2009 5:15am
Quoting Jpnek
No need to doubt it, spotless. We had some really profitable CTs on July.

Regards,
okey.
  • #8,727
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:27am Aug 6, 2009 9:27am
Quoting DanUK
Hello again Joe T,

I have been trading this way with success for some time now so I can say that this approach is in the right area (although I still feel 25 pips is a bit tight... but that's just me!).

Can I ask though... when you are talking about seeing double bounces etc... what time frame are you looking at? In my experience seeing a double bounce (forming a double bottom / W shape) on a 1 hour chart is a good indication for this method. But if you were waiting for that to happen on a daily chart I think you would be overdoing it a bit...
I seldom look at 1H charts, but then again I'm fairly novice to this style of trading. So it may be something I need to consider to look at at lower charts to get a feel for the timing of the expected reversal. That's a good point.
  • #8,728
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:36am Aug 6, 2009 9:36am
Quoting Jpnek
Hi Joe T,

Good question here. This is something I'm also working on...

I can neither speak for Jacko, nor for any Turtles (as I hardly chat with any of them) but only for myself. Personally, although I trade Jacko style, when it becomes to picking entries I always rely on PA around the level. I always check for PA setups, patterns, signs of exhaustion, etc. before I decide it's time for me to enter the trade. I hardly rely on Pending Orders as I believe they can be a double edged sword. As I've [url="http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2782289&postcount=7948"]mentioned...
Thanks for these comments. It sounds like I need to invest some time in studying PA. In the meantime, I'll see how my strategy works on demo. This can allow me to test different levels of entry, as well (25 pips, 50 pips, 25% of ATR(30), etc.) Can also look to see what the difference is waiting for a 1H "w" pattern - or at least a 1-2-3.

So, for now, I await 1.4300 to start the process.
  • #8,729
  • Aug 6, 2009 10:19am Aug 6, 2009 10:19am
entries on pivot points,helps me, monthly,weekly,and daily u see alot of p/a .around these areas.
student
  • #8,730
  • Aug 6, 2009 11:12am Aug 6, 2009 11:12am
Hi to any of Jacko's turtles out there

I am new to forex and I am seriously considering joining Jacko's second group.I just wondered if any of the Turtles currently in his group would consider telling me how they've experienced trading his method over the last couple of months in such a ranging market. I know Jacko used to post his trades and results but as there is no up to date information available, I wondered if anyone was willing to tell me how they've been doing?
  • #8,731
  • Aug 6, 2009 11:43am Aug 6, 2009 11:43am
Quoting Joe T
I seldom look at 1H charts, but then again I'm fairly novice to this style of trading. So it may be something I need to consider to look at at lower charts to get a feel for the timing of the expected reversal. That's a good point.
Hi Joe T,

Just thought I would add this so that I don't mislead anyone... I only use the 1 hour chart to look for that reversal pattern that we discussed - I don't use it for trend analysis!

Price is moving down at the moment so you should get a chance to see something soon (assuming the market goes back up of course!).

Regards,

Dan
  • #8,732
  • Aug 6, 2009 11:53am Aug 6, 2009 11:53am
Hi can anyone tell me what TA means?

"Secondly,I think the round numbers (1.2900...1.3000...etc) are valuable. I only use minimal numbers of trend lines and the ONLY Fibonacci number I use is the 50% number....
That's the limit of my T/A..."

Thanks in advance
Indicators always obey Price, not the other way.
  • #8,733
  • Aug 6, 2009 12:33pm Aug 6, 2009 12:33pm
I'm a 1 week old member of Jacko's group now. The nice thing is you can read all his market commentary back to the beginning (2007) which is what I am doing right now. By keeping up the historic chart next to it you are able to learn a lot.

His results keep on being very good, July was a killer month. I trade also where Jacko thinks the market is going to, that seems to be profitable too.

Quoting garyfb
Hi to any of Jacko's turtles out there

I am new to forex and I am seriously considering joining Jacko's second group.I just wondered if any of the Turtles currently in his group would consider telling me how they've experienced trading his method over the last couple of months in such a ranging market. I know Jacko used to post his trades and results but as there is no up to date information available, I wondered if anyone was willing to tell me how they've been doing?
  • #8,734
  • Aug 6, 2009 12:41pm Aug 6, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting maxtrader
Hi can anyone tell me what TA means?

"Secondly,I think the round numbers (1.2900...1.3000...etc) are valuable. I only use minimal numbers of trend lines and the ONLY Fibonacci number I use is the 50% number....
That's the limit of my T/A..."

Thanks in advance

Technical Analysis
  • #8,735
  • Aug 7, 2009 8:34am Aug 7, 2009 8:34am
Quoting dwildes
Low,
Long? Why?
What are you going to do if 1.4300 doesn't hold as support?

BTW - I'm currently short at 1.4420 due to monthly resistance around 1.4430 held.
Stop moved to B/E.
Debating closing at daily support around 1.4280, but since it looks like sellers have come into the market, I want to see what happens in the next 2 hours. So far, not much sign of strength.
  • #8,736
  • Aug 7, 2009 8:59am Aug 7, 2009 8:59am
Well, I traded the plan. Saw the move down to 1.4300 and watched at that point. I looked for a 50 point reversal to indicate the trend was heading in the other direction and planned to buy in at that point. The move went down to 1.4272, and I almost missed my buy-in point and ended up entering at 1.4326. Using a trailing stop of 80.

Rationale: The 1.4300 level was a S/R area, and about a 33% retrace. Not as strong as I might like on the retrace, but decided not to try to catch a falling knife, so initiated 1.4300 as a "watch area" and decided to buy on a 50 pip increase from the low after the initial move through that level to try and catch the trend up.
  • #8,737
  • Aug 7, 2009 9:10am Aug 7, 2009 9:10am
Let's see if it gets to our 50% sale level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,738
  • Aug 7, 2009 9:11am Aug 7, 2009 9:11am
Quoting Joe T
Well, I traded the plan....
No offense - but it sounds like you are trying to catch it already?
100% Jacko style would have waited for a pullback to around 1.4230'ish for the 50% FIB on this latest move.

That's why all these calls of long @ 1.4300 were confusing to me.
  • #8,739
  • Aug 7, 2009 9:13am Aug 7, 2009 9:13am
Quoting artov
Let's see if it gets to our 50% sale level.
Excellent chart, short/simple analysis. That's what I'm looking at here as well.
  • #8,740
  • Aug 7, 2009 9:26am Aug 7, 2009 9:26am
Price washing around a support area at 1.4230.
Next stop 50% fibo?
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