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  • #4,441
  • Aug 5, 2009 10:50pm Aug 5, 2009 10:50pm
Quoting PistolDave
Hi Strat and friends,

I hope everyone is doing well today. I wanted to touch base with everyone and thank you for posting your trades and analysis. I am still studying each one carefully and learning from all.

I am up to July 19 on the posts and wanted to comment on the one quoted above (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4162)

I have a perfect example of a trade I entered in mid July that illustrated how your mind is your best analysis tool, and can be your worst enemy, just as you say.

The trade I am...
We'll be here, Dave - Take Your Time - Buddy Holly 1958
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,442
  • Aug 6, 2009 12:22am Aug 6, 2009 12:22am
Quoting strat
“”Im kind of curious as to why strat has been posting about the lower TF's too?? is it to show us how ridiculous this kind of trading is?

I am very interested in sticking with the dailies and weeklys and see no point in going any lower if you can trade them profitably. I mean why spend all that time and STRESS??””

Very valid points, Craig, and deserving of my explanation.

[font=Arial]A while back, we had a post...
Thanks for the explanation Strat.

I can see where this would help the equity curve as you stated, im still curious as to why go so low though? i could understand H1 at the min but M15!!?? lol

I just really like how this thread has stuck to what you have been teaching from the beginning and worry that by allowing more talk of the lower TF's the thread will wander more towards the lower TF's because of the lack of patience most traders have.

As much as i love the J16 thread hardly anyone overthere seems to be posting about daily setups on a regular basis.......

Anyways i will continue to keep my nose to the grindstone on the Dailies and weeklys. Maybe someday i will look back at my recent posts while profiting from an M15 chart then i will know i have arrived.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
  • #4,443
  • Aug 6, 2009 12:42am Aug 6, 2009 12:42am
Showing us a W1 head and shoulders with the recent move at a 61.8 fib retrace, the down TL, and S/R level 14.50.

larger HS on the daily with a small SS at S/R level of 14.50
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  • #4,444
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:06am Aug 6, 2009 3:06am
Quoting 30XTCi
Just an observation, Strat knows I have many wierd and 'not so ordinary 'ways of looking at these markets. One thing I noticed today that I've been waiting for was a balancing act on the Cable chart. I call this a Harmonic wave.
Hi Roy and Strat
I am looking at cable too ... I have been reading a lot of Gann lately who used astronomy in trading and I also want to thank Swami and BabaG to opening my eyes to go looking for this.

Today is BoE rate decision for cable in a few hours and tomorrow is NFP but ... it is also a full moon today. If you think a full moon is meaningless here is a cable daily chart with the rest of this years full moons marked.
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  • #4,445
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:31am Aug 6, 2009 3:31am
Oh my. Now I have to know the moon cycles!

Go long, its a full moon. Although, it seems as good as some strategies out there.
  • #4,446
  • Aug 6, 2009 8:36am Aug 6, 2009 8:36am
Quoting elitejets
Hi Roy and Strat
I am looking at cable too ... I have been reading a lot of Gann lately who used astronomy in trading and I also want to thank Swami and BabaG to opening my eyes to go looking for this.

Today is BoE rate decision for cable in a few hours and tomorrow is NFP but ... it is also a full moon today. If you think a full moon is meaningless here is a cable daily chart with the rest of this years full moons marked.
Been there, done that and got all the T-shirts - still a member of Welles Wilder's Delta Phenomenon which uses astrology to forecast turning points - can't find the book so that tells you of the value it is.

Better than the moon is a coin toss - you don't have to worry about dates and LUNATICS!

NEXT!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,447
  • Aug 6, 2009 8:38am Aug 6, 2009 8:38am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Thanks for the explanation Strat.

I can see where this would help the equity curve as you stated, im still curious as to why go so low though? i could understand H1 at the min but M15!!?? lol

I just really like how this thread has stuck to what you have been teaching from the beginning and worry that by allowing more talk of the lower TF's the thread will wander more towards the lower TF's because of the lack of patience most traders have.

As much as i love the J16 thread hardly anyone overthere seems to be posting about daily setups on a...
Like I said, Craig, I will still be doing Worker and BOSS trades - I don't have the mentality and personality for shorter time frames.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,448
  • Aug 6, 2009 6:55pm Aug 6, 2009 6:55pm
Quoting strat
Been there, done that and got all the T-shirts - still a member of Welles Wilder's Delta Phenomenon which uses astrology to forecast turning points - can't find the book so that tells you of the value it is.

Better than the moon is a coin toss - you don't have to worry about dates and LUNATICS!

NEXT!
Someone on a different forum proposed a system based on the weather as a joke. If its raining in the US sell the usd, if its sunny in Japan then buy the yen. It was funny how many people actually fell for it and took it seriously.
  • #4,449
  • Aug 7, 2009 10:21am Aug 7, 2009 10:21am
Quoting strat
Better than the moon is a coin toss - you don't have to worry about dates and LUNATICS!
I am trying to think of a dignified response. The chart can talk for me

Have a good weekend all.
  • #4,450
  • Aug 7, 2009 11:52am Aug 7, 2009 11:52am
Example of how failing to follow the plan can be costly.

Currency pair: GBPCHF
Setup: Hammer at the end of a retracement in an uptrend.
Hammer formed: Monday, July 13
Entry date: Tuesday, July 14
Exit date: Tuesday, July 21

Chart 1 shows the entry, profit target, and exit.
Chart 2 shows progress of the trade after I closed my position prematurely.
There is no pic showing me crying in my beer. LOL



1


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Description: The uptrend was clear in the GBPCHF. Since April 01 there had been no close below the Daily 50 SMA. After about ten days of retracement back toward the D50 the hammer formed. Price broke down through the 1.7460-1.7500 support area and was strongly rejected off the D50, forming a 200 pip candle with the close very near to the top of the day's range.

I entered with a buy stop slightly above the top of the hammer and price proceeded up nicely Tuesday, July 14 but encountered supply at the 1.7750-1.7775 area and drifted lower throughout the rest of the week, closing Friday near the trade entry price. Monday of the next week saw price move somewhat higher, but Tuesday price traded lower than any day since I entered the trade. After eight days in the trade and with price generally moving in the wrong direction, I apparently managed to convince myself that price had been rejected by the Weekly 50 during late June and it could be making a new swing low or resuming the downtrend, therefore my analysis was flawed. I was concerned that price was about to stop me out soon. Doubt and fear had definitely crept into my mind.

I chose to exit the trade out of fear of loss -- and naturally within a day price continued on upward without me -- right to the profit target I had expected in the beginning. The trade was only a 30 pip loss, and it is a demo account, but it proves the principle you have taught, Strat, that you must FOLLOW YOUR PLAN. I failed to do that and it cost me at least 400+ pips profit.

The lesson learned is to always follow the plan and be patient even if the trade doesn't act like you expected. The market can do anything and you must let price action prove you right or wrong. Obviously the market will offer unlimited possibilities for you to doubt, fear, and second-guess your decision.

I hope we can all learn from this one.

Back to the Path of Learning,
Dave
  • #4,451
  • Aug 7, 2009 1:03pm Aug 7, 2009 1:03pm
My friend Beachtrader pointed this out
Weekly candle almost closed ....
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  • #4,452
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:25pm Aug 7, 2009 3:25pm
Quoting elitejets
My friend Beachtrader pointed this out
Weekly candle almost closed ....
1.6600 looks like strong support. Would you trade against this area?
  • #4,453
  • Aug 7, 2009 4:03pm Aug 7, 2009 4:03pm
Quoting alter
1.6600 looks like strong support. Would you trade against this area?
Picking tops is always dangerous, and buying the USD is definately countertrend, but 1.70 is a massive level that has proved strong support in the past. I have the next big support at 1.6550 area. A conservative way to trade this would be to wait for drop, a pullback to form a lower high and then a short entry. The big level and the weekly shooting star is enough to tempt me with a small tester short, yes, but that might not be for everyone.
  • #4,454
  • Aug 7, 2009 4:10pm Aug 7, 2009 4:10pm
Quoting elitejets
Picking tops is always dangerous, and buying the USD is definately countertrend, but 1.70 is a massive level that has proved strong support in the past. I have the next big support at 1.6550 area. A conservative way to trade this would be to wait for drop, a pullback to form a lower high and then a short entry. The big level and the weekly shooting star is enough to tempt me with a small tester short, yes, but that might not be for everyone.
I also had the 7000 level pinned for action from the beginning of the week, it is where I close my long from Monday. I am changing platforms this weekend to MT4, Oanda doesnt have weekly charts so im out for now until funds clear. Naturally I am glad you posted the chart because I would not have seen it unless I really looked at the dailys and formed the image in my mind (would never have happened). Well new bias for next week perhaps. NFP results were great so it could be a driver for a small downside rally. Looking at the monthly charts, we could do with a big sell off .

Have a great weekend all

Razor
  • #4,455
  • Aug 7, 2009 4:29pm Aug 7, 2009 4:29pm
On this chart I have made a Fib for the current move up. Note that the previous fib retrace is a copy and pasted (duplicated) of the current one and the swing high and low fit perfectly. I guess this is just to show that a move in the vicinty of a 1000 + pips is really quite possible over the next few months.
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  • #4,456
  • Aug 9, 2009 12:01am Aug 9, 2009 12:01am
Quoting elitejets
I am trying to think of a dignified response. The chart can talk for me

Have a good weekend all.
Coincidence - PURE coincidence - look at your charts over at least 10 years to see how random it is.

By the way, the financial astrologers put a low impact on the moon and its cycles and are more concerned with mercury, venus, mars, jupiter and sun conjuncts.

I have added up the amount I spent on financial astrology and it is about $7,300 - I would have had a better ROI spending it on Lottery tickets!

Think about it logically, how can planet alignment affect forex traders who are situated all over the world? If it was proven effective, don't you think we would all be forex $billionaires by now?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,457
  • Aug 9, 2009 12:43am Aug 9, 2009 12:43am
Quoting PistolDave
Example of how failing to follow the plan can be costly.

Currency pair: GBPCHF
Setup: Hammer at the end of a retracement in an uptrend.
Hammer formed: Monday, July 13
Entry date: Tuesday, July 14
Exit date: Tuesday, July 21

Chart 1 shows the entry, profit target, and exit.
Chart 2 shows progress of the trade after I closed my position prematurely.
There is no pic showing me crying in my beer. LOL
...
Dave,

Another lesson you need to learn is CORRECT CANDLE RECOGNITION.

“”Setup: Hammer at the end of a retracement in an uptrend.
Hammer formed: Monday, July 13””

Look again at your chart – how is the 7/13 candle at the end of the trend? To be at the end of the trend, it has to be the lowest candle, which it is not since its body is half way up the prior bull candle.

As you can see, price didn’t finish building support from that retrace with the 7/13 candle but I still don’t understand why you lost out.

Since you took that Bond candle, your SL should have been below it’s low and your PLAN should have included that. As your trade progressed, your SL was never really threatened and you would have had an opportunity to move your SL up below the hammer which formed on 7/22. While this hammer is not a “classic” it has value and should be considered since it has formed after a RE – TEST of support.

“”After eight days in the trade and with price generally moving in the wrong direction, I apparently managed to convince myself that price had been rejected by the Weekly 50 during late June and it could be making a new swing low or resuming the downtrend, therefore my analysis was flawed. I was concerned that price was about to stop me out soon. Doubt and fear had definitely crept into my mind.

I chose to exit the trade out of fear of loss””

More than NOT following your PLAN, you didn’t TRUST and BELIEVE in your PLAN. Had you trusted and believed in it then all would be well. Did you ask yourself if you trusted and believed in your PLAN? Did you run through all the possible scenarios including price dropping and taking out your SL?

You have to go through all the possible scenarios when making your PLAN so that WHEN it happens during your trade, you have already discussed it and feel comfortable (no emotions) with it. If you don’t trust and believe in your PLAN, then keep changing it until you find a PLAN you can trust and believe. If you can’t find a PLAN you can trust and believe, then don’t trade!

I also get the feeling that you were trading like an amateur by thinking profit first and loss last. You MUST always think and consider how much you will LOSE first when taking a trade. If you can’t afford that LOSS, then your trade STOPS right there; no need to start developing a PLAN.

Don’t worry, Dave, you are not alone in what you did – EVERYONE has to go through it and does go through it – some more often than others. Your challenge now is not to make the same mistakes again.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,458
  • Aug 9, 2009 1:01am Aug 9, 2009 1:01am
Quoting elitejets
Picking tops is always dangerous, and buying the USD is definitely countertrend, but 1.70 is a massive level that has proved strong support in the past. I have the next big support at 1.6550 area. A conservative way to trade this would be to wait for drop, a pullback to form a lower high and then a short entry. The big level and the weekly shooting star is enough to tempt me with a small tester short, yes, but that might not be for everyone.
Its history now, but the Worker BEEB triggered the next day's sell. I have psycho 1.6600 as the next important support, so what price does here will be an indication for future direction. If it fails to hold there, 1.6350 will give it another test with strong support below that at 1.6110.

That BOSS shooting star is a classic on my data and deserving of a trade.

Whether the sellers have what it takes to technically break the Worker uptrend by a close below 1.6350 remains to be seen.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,459
  • Aug 9, 2009 1:13am Aug 9, 2009 1:13am
I see our old friend is back at the magic level of 1.4160 - and she was in a helluva hurry to get there too!

Could be different though this time - take a look at the BOSS.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,460
  • Aug 9, 2009 1:18am Aug 9, 2009 1:18am
Massive BOJ intervention on Friday - they can only stand so much of a strong Yen weakening their economy.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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