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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #40,001
  • Aug 5, 2009 7:21pm Aug 5, 2009 7:21pm
Quoting mbqb11
I am not trading gbp/cad b/c it doesn't line up with my methods.

But let me just share that many of us don't have the slightest clue about any fundamentals, and for most(notice I say most so if you use it and it works don't yell at me lol) of us it simply distracts from just reading the chart. THis is not to get into a fundies vs techs , too many of that. But since this is Jims thread i will throw this out. Someone once asked James "what do you do about news?" Jim's reply "I avoid news like the plague."

So do I.

Mike
I hear you Mike...loud and clear...I'll keep my fundies to myself from now on...no probs...

GregB
  • #40,002
  • Aug 5, 2009 7:25pm Aug 5, 2009 7:25pm
Quoting batesmotel
I hear you Mike...loud and clear...I'll keep my fundies to myself from now on...no probs...

GregB
hey greg certainly I wasnt stopping you from shqring gere. Forgive me if thqt is how the post came off. What I was trying to get across was how fundies end up preventing a lot of people from becoming profitable in the overcomplication process. I just try to save people time dowN roads I have been. Sorry for the confusion

best
Mike
  • #40,003
  • Aug 5, 2009 7:30pm Aug 5, 2009 7:30pm
Quoting mbqb11
From the PF for you



When I find a trade that doesn't scream out at me, or when I see it I just say EH....
I was hoping to hear that.

This is so darned important, and a real reason why I avoided FF (mostly) for almost 2 years.

I traded just the dailies for a long time, and worked hard to pave my own road using the material found here. Every time I visited here, I found myself being influenced out of what I knew - rather than allowing the experience of the market to come to me - via a demo. I am sure this elongated my learning curve a little.

Eventually, if anyone gets successful at this, they positively learn to do it in their own manner - and more importantly - they stick to it.

These forums are a two edge sword. Having a firm set of rules will help you avoid the second edge. Let the market refine your method. There are some members here who understand that you are wholly responsible to make it yourself, and will stick to helping out with the bedrock principles.

This is where you need to be no matter what -

Quoting mbqb11

When I find a trade that doesn't scream out at me, or when I see it I just say EH.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #40,004
  • Aug 5, 2009 7:36pm Aug 5, 2009 7:36pm
Quoting mbqb11
hey greg certainly I wasnt stopping you from shqring gere. Forgive me if thqt is how the post came off. What I was trying to get across was how fundies end up preventing a lot of people from becoming profitable in the overcomplication process. I just try to save people time dowN roads I have been. Sorry for the confusion

best
Mike
Thanks Mike....also, there has been some real nuggets of gold being posted here lately....I love it...keep it up everyone!

GregB
  • #40,005
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:24pm Aug 5, 2009 8:24pm
Quoting SeekingLight
I've got no opinion on that pair as it's not "one of mine"

When pondering a setup, usually occam's razor ends up being:
If despite weighing pros and cons I still feel (so) bad about a trade(as not to immediately want to take it) instead of seeing great potential, why take it?

Taking a trade with less than 100% conviction just lays a foundation for interfering, self-manipulation and general sources of worry.
I think Josh was joking Seek, see the rolling around laughing icons after his post
  • #40,006
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:00pm Aug 5, 2009 9:00pm
Quoting mbqb11
HELLO stop hunt
would you mind elaborating on this?
  • #40,007
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:04pm Aug 5, 2009 9:04pm
Quoting joebryce
would you mind elaborating on this?
just in general when you hit a range like that stop orders build on the lower side of it, if it attracts enough attention you get a push to clear those orders and then your buy order come in to use those orders for some extra free liquidity

as liquid as forex is, it still is never liquid enough for the big guns

also known to the laymen as a false breakout
  • #40,008
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:18pm Aug 5, 2009 9:18pm
Quoting mbqb11
just in general when you hit a range like that stop orders build on the lower side of it, if it attracts enough attention you get a push to clear those orders and then your buy order come in to use those orders for some extra free liquidity

as liquid as forex is, it still is never liquid enough for the big guns

also known to the laymen as a false breakout
I learned a lot of things from Mike -

This ditty is a diamond.

Mike - Know anyone who fades these 'breakouts'?
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #40,009
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:32pm Aug 5, 2009 9:32pm
Quote
Mike - Know anyone who fades these 'breakouts'?
StoragePro,
yes, someone just did, here.

was that u?


btw, stop hunting on both sides of the pond (above & below price). certainly most traders' (specially the big guys) "chips" are "off the table" (is this poker forum or trading forum?! lol) & awaiting Friday's imminent US NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) data, using it as an "inspiration" to answer the big Q "where do we go from here: tank or breakout?"....
  • #40,010
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:35pm Aug 5, 2009 9:35pm
Quoting supremeChaos
StoragePro,
yes, someone just did, here.

was that u?
LOL - sort of - I got in once it formed a PB and reentered the channel...
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #40,011
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:45pm Aug 5, 2009 9:45pm
Quoting mbqb11
just in general when you hit a range like that stop orders build on the lower side of it, if it attracts enough attention you get a push to clear those orders and then your buy order come in to use those orders for some extra free liquidity

as liquid as forex is, it still is never liquid enough for the big guns

also known to the laymen as a false breakout
See if I understand. If stops build underneath and we get a push down where those orders can be used to load up then wouldn't that continue the breakout.

Wouldn't a false breakout go the other way?

Hope I'm not making a simple idea complicated.
  • #40,012
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:59pm Aug 5, 2009 9:59pm
joebryce,
if i may.....

it's a supply & demand question..

Quote
If stops build underneath and we get a push down where those orders can be used to load up then wouldn't that continue the breakout.
in a way, yes, traders may be loading up ----buying at lower (discount) prices [this is accumulation]. but the next thing to look out for/next Q is, "is there momentum/follow-through demand/buying?" if the answer is yes, then a breakout (range breakout) will happen. if the answer is no, then we will continue to be contained in a range.
The same concept is applicable with supply/selling/distribution, only in reverse.

Hope this helps to clarify
  • #40,013
  • Aug 5, 2009 10:55pm Aug 5, 2009 10:55pm
chart
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  • #40,014
  • Aug 5, 2009 11:14pm Aug 5, 2009 11:14pm
Hi James,

It would be great if you can answer this. How do you know the pinbar will not be stopped by PPZ like this? I am almost always stopped by them, and cannot make profit with Pinbars.

cheers,
kk

Quoting james16
chart
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  • #40,015
  • Aug 5, 2009 11:22pm Aug 5, 2009 11:22pm
hello kk,

if i understand you correctly your saying a pin bar short from the 4900/5000 area would find trouble on the way down at your level.

that would be wonderful because that would be around a 500 pip gain.

pivot zones are your friend not your enemy.

did i understand you correctly?

jim

Quoting kk007
Hi James,

It would be great if you can answer this. How do you know the pinbar will not be stopped by PPZ like this? I am almost always stopped by them, and cannot make profit with Pinbars.

cheers,
kk
  • #40,016
  • Aug 5, 2009 11:35pm Aug 5, 2009 11:35pm
Thanks James,

Yes, I am pointing to the pinbar short from 4900/5000.

Nevertheless, the gain would be about 50 pip, instead of 500 pip, if you counting the distance from the low of the pinbar with 25 pip offset to the top of the PPZ.

This risk in term of the length of the pinbar will be a lot more than than the 50 pip.

cheers,

kk



Quoting james16
hello kk,

if i understand you correctly your saying a pin bar short from the 4900/5000 area would find trouble on the way down at your level.

that would be wonderful because that would be around a 500 pip gain.

pivot zones are your friend not your enemy.

did i understand you correctly?

jim
  • #40,017
  • Aug 6, 2009 12:16am Aug 6, 2009 12:16am
Quoting Jduester
I like your style on this one Kiss. Saw an 8hr pin too (3-11am CT). Just broken now.

Got a daily chart posted here.

Pros
- long nose
- swing high
- with trend
- 38FIB
- Divergence
.................................................................

Must break to be a pinbar...

Josh
Hi josh,

Just a small point, and I'm sorry if I miss-understood you.
Divergence in this case would be that price is making higher highs and the MACD makes lower highs... (chart).
Just trying to make things simple.

This is not referring for YOUR particular g/cad trade. this is in general.
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  • #40,018
  • Aug 6, 2009 12:26am Aug 6, 2009 12:26am
Quote
Nevertheless, the gain would be about 50 pip, instead of 500 pip, if you counting the distance from the low of the pinbar with 25 pip offset to the top of the PPZ.
This risk in term of the length of the pinbar will be a lot more than than the 50 pip.

kk007,
if i may.... im trying to understand your line of thinking..

why the gain is 50 instead of 500 pips? wha is the value/price u based that from?
what is the price of "the top of the ppz"?

Sir james16, i believe, based the 500-pip gain from the 1.3830-70 ppz (Jul2007 mini range highs, Aug31'08 PB/spike low) &/or the weekly chart 150EMA (around 1.3927)

Quote
How do you know the pinbar will not be stopped by PPZ like this
if u look & trade solely off of that weekly chart, u can see the immediate bar after the PB (from the 1.4900/5000) was a huge drop/down bar, indicating momentum of the downmove.
this bar's low was 1.37 to the pip (but probably not to the pip in other brokers) & closed around 1.3779 (below 1.38 round number & the PPZ above). Note the 150 EMA was around 1.3927.
after that huge bar, 2 bars formed a sort of triangle &/or "comb" (essentially a "TL possible to get broken", referring to the ascending TL which got broken to the downside, see Igrok's thread for definition/examples, if interested). Note 200EMA was around 1.3564 at that time & these 2 bars closed below this EMA, & price tanked again shortly, for about 1000 pips. Note 365 EMA was around 1.2782.
short answer to your Q (after all that ramble, LOL ), after taking a PA setup, gauge/monitor the reaction towards immediate PPZs/ S&Rs, MAs...
  • #40,019
  • Aug 6, 2009 12:35am Aug 6, 2009 12:35am
Quoting ady27
Hi josh,

Just a small point, and I'm sorry if I miss-understood you.
Divergence in this case would be that price is making higher highs and the MACD makes lower highs... (chart).
Just trying to make things simple.

This is not referring for YOUR particular g/cad trade. this is in general.
hey Ady,

What Josh was pointing out is what you call "hidden" bearish divergence.

What you outlined is "regular" bearish divergence.

Here's some info from the babypips school.

Divergence

G.
I believe . . .
  • #40,020
  • Aug 6, 2009 12:41am Aug 6, 2009 12:41am
ady27,
if i may....
Jduester was referring particularly to Hidden divergence ---connotes a trend continuation (in Jduester's chart, it's downward trend)

2 types of div.:
regular divergence = means reversal
hidden div. = means (trend) continuation

He may have failed to/forgotten to emphasize this in his post.
a simple Google search or search within this thread would yield results (here, here, here, here, here).
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