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Attachments: 7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy
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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #1,541
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:42pm Aug 3, 2009 3:42pm
This looks interesting. I've read about half the thread but I'm not seeing people post their results which isn't promising....anyone been trading this either demo or real?

Possible filters: trading w/ trend using EMAs, 32EMA for the session avg and 96 for the daily avg. Also using both those inputs in a MACD you might be able to filter out some losers if the diverge too much.
  • #1,542
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:51pm Aug 3, 2009 3:51pm
Quoting Max Thrax
This looks interesting. I've read about half the thread but I'm not seeing people post their results which isn't promising....anyone been trading this either demo or real?

Possible filters: trading w/ trend using EMAs, 32EMA for the session avg and 96 for the daily avg. Also using both those inputs in a MACD you might be able to filter out some losers if the diverge too much.
I think it is so simple, people have put it in there tool box and moved on. I use it sometimes.
  • #1,543
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:37pm Aug 3, 2009 4:37pm
Quoting calderone
I think it is so simple, people have put it in there tool box and moved on. I use it sometimes.
...and do you find it profitable Calderone? If so, why not use it all the time?

As a general rule we see that when price deviates from the mean by a certain amount, we know that price tends to retrace and/or congest which isn't good for breakout systems IMO(of course I'm not a veteran trader). If you use those two EMAs (32 and 96) as inputs for MACD you get a clear picture regarding price divergence from the mean and you could use it to filter out some losers and perhaps trade against the trend in those cases. I've only eyeballed it so far but it looks pretty good.
  • #1,544
  • Aug 3, 2009 9:52pm Aug 3, 2009 9:52pm
Quoting Max Thrax
...and do you find it profitable Calderone? If so, why not use it all the time?

As a general rule we see that when price deviates from the mean by a certain amount, we know that price tends to retrace and/or congest which isn't good for breakout systems IMO(of course I'm not a veteran trader). If you use those two EMAs (32 and 96) as inputs for MACD you get a clear picture regarding price divergence from the mean and you could use it to filter out some losers and perhaps trade against the trend in those cases. I've only eyeballed it so far but...
It is sometimes a good idea to adjust a system when it makes sense. When I trade it, I use a variation of it. If it breaks hard, I may use instant execution order. If price action is lame-I may take the second break if it happens. I try to avoid false breaks. I concentrate on the pair that is developing best in the range and forget the best. I may go for small pips but use more lots.
Good luck to you.

To answer your question, I use it sometimes but I like to trade fairly regularly so this doesn't really work that often-once a day.
  • #1,545
  • Aug 4, 2009 5:10pm Aug 4, 2009 5:10pm
Quoting krievs
Hello tasciy,
Follow Your method here are result for previous week. How abt pip range in 195 did You take trade here too? Isn`t it too much? And I think it is not possible to put order here, cause no time for that, how do You think?
P.S: the same with me, I also live in gmt+2
Also I noticed such thing - main news in UK at 10:30, sometimes it is better put pending buy/sell orrder without T/P. More pips could be caught.
i filter signal if the range is more than 100pips
if height of box is too low(like 30-40) i use higer tp like 80pip
if range is like 60pips i use 30pip for tp1 and 60 pip tp2
if range is more than 100pip i dont trade.

I will explain again with more info.
  • #1,546
  • Aug 4, 2009 7:25pm Aug 4, 2009 7:25pm
Observation: I've noticed there is a breakout usually occuring within 1 to 3 15M candles following the Box. This initial break may be up to (or exceed)+20pips. For example, see last 2 nights (3 & 2 Aug). Clean breakouts with minimal drawdown. Kicking myself that I've stayed in the sidelines with this strategy.

Query: Does anyone here (whose been using this strategy for a while) have an idea/feel about the probability % of falsebreaks immediately following the NY Box?

Intended action: If my observation is >95% correct, then I'm thinking its preferable to go for +10 TP with increased lot sizing (rather than +20 or greater TP) immediately following the NY Box. On 4 to 5 relevant currency pairs. Once +10 TP hit, job's done for the day.

Any opinions?
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
  • #1,547
  • Aug 5, 2009 1:32pm Aug 5, 2009 1:32pm
I'd like to throw in my little suggestion. Only trade w/ the trend which can be defined by putting in some EMAs: 32(8 hr), 96 (24 hr) and 480(5 days). Only trade in the direction of 480. Also use a MACD with these settings: Fast EMA 32, Slow EMA 96, MACD SMA 9. And put levels at both .004 and -.004. The theory being that when price deviates from the mean/average by a large amount, price tends to retrace and/or consolidate. This is usually when breakout systems get killed w/ false breakouts. So we use the MACD as set above to tell us when the session average has greatly deviated from the 24 hour average, and the trigger that tells us is when the MACD moving average crosses above the .004 line or below the -.004 line. In that case you should trade against the trend but only when the MACD MA moves back below the .004 level or above the -.004 level as the case may be, otherwise no trade entry that day. I have only eyeballed it because I don't know how to backtest on Metatrader, but using this MACD set up looks great as far back as I can see. I should also note that I am using 8-10 AM EST as opposed to 7-9 EST as it makes a lot more sense. Most news releases occur within those hours and it sets a nice range and gives price opportunity to calm down from any news related spikes.
  • #1,548
  • Aug 5, 2009 7:53pm Aug 5, 2009 7:53pm
Yesterday, 05-06-2009, true signal

we had true signal, i got 30 pip on GBP/USD? But when i backtest, it's not exactly on 4,3,2,1 -08-2009?, i don't understand why please help me?
Attached Image
  • #1,549
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:34am Aug 6, 2009 4:34am
Quoting tasciy
i filter signal if the range is more than 100pips
if height of box is too low(like 30-40) i use higer tp like 80pip
if range is like 60pips i use 30pip for tp1 and 60 pip tp2
if range is more than 100pip i dont trade.

I will explain again with more info.

That is an excellent filter , thanks for sharing !!!
  • #1,550
  • Aug 6, 2009 7:17am Aug 6, 2009 7:17am
Quoting dznmrd
Hi,

Everyones sharing such a lot on ForexFactory, I thought i will take the time to share with all too what i have learnt that works.

I just got this idea from a friend, who gets this idea from another. (nerd)
We called it the Big Dog 1400-1600 USD Breakout Strategy. (Around US OPEN)

Its a simple strategy. You need not have any indicator, just the default ones found in your metatrader.

Daily Profit Potentials: Around 30-50pips +

All you need to do is the following:-

1. Pull out a M15 Chart for a USD Major pair, example like GBPUSD.
2....

I have been through this thread and looks great.

Does anyone have an updated template with all the indicators they would like to share.

It seems the one on the 1st post are a bit outdated.

  • #1,551
  • Aug 6, 2009 10:43am Aug 6, 2009 10:43am
Folks/OP,
Does anyone know the reason why the 7 to 9 AM was chosen for the box vs say the 6 to 8 AM ? US Markets open at 8 AM and i would think the breakout would happen right on open , no?

check out http://www.forexmarkethours.com/


Thanks
  • #1,552
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:18pm Aug 6, 2009 1:18pm
Hello Everyone following this thread.

Here is my way of identifying the trend:

Here is an indicator that will show you the slow trend. Check that the 15, 30, h1 and optionally h4 charts show the same trend (green=up, red=down). If they do, its likely the price will break the low/high for at least 10pips.

The picture shows today the G/U where all timeframes were showing a down trend and price moved down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.gif Size: 19 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FPM Slow Trend.mq4   2 KB | 768 downloads
  • #1,553
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:30pm Aug 6, 2009 1:30pm
Quoting Bull
Hi Mitch, here is the Indicator, I hope that can help you.

The default value are following the rules (box between 7 to 9 am NYT) a Margin of 3 pips (above and below) the high and low for entry point, then 15 - 30 - 45 pips to profit, and the SL on the other side of the box.


Bull
Thank you for sharing your indi...It is a nice one. However, what is the risk/reward ratio and how many pips is the stop loss?

Thank you.
  • #1,554
  • Aug 6, 2009 7:23pm Aug 6, 2009 7:23pm
06-08-2009 is good +30pip, lucky
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bigdog06-08-2009.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #1,555
  • Aug 6, 2009 7:28pm Aug 6, 2009 7:28pm
Quoting Max Thrax
I'd like to throw in my little suggestion. Only trade w/ the trend which can be defined by putting in some EMAs: 32(8 hr), 96 (24 hr) and 480(5 days). Only trade in the direction of 480. Also use a MACD with these settings: Fast EMA 32, Slow EMA 96, MACD SMA 9. And put levels at both .004 and -.004....


Can you upload the picture for detail, 4 nearest trade which you traded
  • #1,556
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:44am Aug 7, 2009 7:44am
Gangsta1, Thank you for sharing the showtrend indicator. What are the moving averages that are used on which time frames? Thanks Tom
  • #1,557
  • Aug 7, 2009 11:47am Aug 7, 2009 11:47am
volcano,

here is my template. I have included quick trailing ea, which allows you to set take profit, stop loss, break even, etc automatically. It is very handy for this strategy.

let me know how you get on...
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl usd bigdog.tpl   80 KB | 795 downloads
File Type: ex4 Quik_Trailing.ex4   13 KB | 696 downloads
  • #1,558
  • Aug 7, 2009 11:55am Aug 7, 2009 11:55am
Here are shots of some of the usd currencies today.

It is the first friday of the month, the ranges are high, but there were still good pips with good money management.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_usd.gif Size: 16 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_usd.gif Size: 21 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_chf.gif Size: 16 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_jpy.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #1,559
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:53pm Aug 7, 2009 5:53pm
Sorry Gangsta1 I am not having much luck. The trailing stop ea loaded on my platform but it says that it is disabled probably because there is a big vopyright note that comes up on the chart. I can't seem to get the template to show up in my templates list. I am not sure what that problem is. But I do tnak you for tryhing. I really like the show trend indicator. It seems to work well. Thanks Tom
  • #1,560
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:54pm Aug 7, 2009 7:54pm
hi
this is my first post,................so what?
i have examined this strategy in 6 weeks GBP/usd and 2 things came up:
first EST is +5 from GMT and in the original post 1400 - 1600 which will be 1200-1400 if we are looking for 7 AM till 9 AM in newyork time.i examined both and found no significant difference but 1400 -1600 was a little bit better
second : when your using this you'd better look at the bollinger bands too and if your sell point or buy point is near the borders of bollinger bands take 20 pips and get out ,although it may go till 80 pip profit but most of the times it goes the other way
by the way mondays were the best days of the week trading this strategy ( in the 6 weeks and it may not be reliable)

dont forget ,this is safe when the amount of 2 horizental lines dont differ that much.
too much talking for the first post
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