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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #8,701
  • Aug 5, 2009 2:59am Aug 5, 2009 2:59am
anybody in at 1.4400?
  • #8,702
  • Aug 5, 2009 6:44am Aug 5, 2009 6:44am
I have read through the thread thank you to all who have posted

Quoting Jpnek
Good thinking, kodflakes. This may help you a bit too, spotless1212:
My upper trendline is not the same as yours can you explain reason for redrawing to include high on 28/7

Thanks for any help

Tony

http://i561.photobucket.com/albums/s...th/th_eud1.jpg
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #8,703
  • Aug 5, 2009 7:20am Aug 5, 2009 7:20am
Quoting spotless1212
anybody in at 1.4400?
No Im waiting for something to get me in its in this 100 pip range and it could go anywhere right now but if I had a life or death choice to get in it would be at the bottom of the range long.
  • #8,704
  • Aug 5, 2009 7:34am Aug 5, 2009 7:34am
Quoting kodflakes
No Im waiting for something to get me in its in this 100 pip range and it could go anywhere right now but if I had a life or death choice to get in it would be at the bottom of the range long.

got stopped (-15 pips)..guess am a bit too aggressive.
  • #8,705
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:56am Aug 5, 2009 8:56am
Spotless, I agree with what Jpnek and kodflakes are suggesting, mainly buying on the dips towards the bottom of the range. Buying of the top of the range is a bit risking for most people. Your decision to go long at the top of the range notwithstanding, why are you getting stopped out for -15 pips and -30 pips? How big are your SL in terms of pips? Sorry if I missed this in one of your posts. The way we've been trading this for a while is to use a 100 SL.
  • #8,706
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:39am Aug 5, 2009 9:39am
Quoting spotless1212
got stopped (-15 pips)..guess am a bit too aggressive.
Spot
Have you ever hunted? You can go trotting around an area that you have heard that is filled with hundreds of Elk but never see one. Or you can sit back and glass find where they are from 100's of yards away and wait. So now your waiting and you see a spike come up. Now he has pretty good meat but not worth mounting. He is in range now do you take the shot? I would wait i saw a big 6x6 just inside the tree line maybe he will come out. You wait and wait finnally that perfect bull comes out in range and giving you that great profile. You finally get up to him and he turns out to be a 5x5 great bull and worth the wait, but it wouldnt have been possible unless you wait for him to come to you. Also you could have missed but seeing the bull in action is great too.
  • #8,707
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:40am Aug 5, 2009 9:40am
Quoting RickyRudy
Spotless, I agree with what Jpnek and kodflakes are suggesting, mainly buying on the dips towards the bottom of the range. Buying of the top of the range is a bit risking for most people. Your decision to go long at the top of the range notwithstanding, why are you getting stopped out for -15 pips and -30 pips? How big are your SL in terms of pips? Sorry if I missed this in one of your posts. The way we've been trading this for a while is to use a 100 SL.
i went through the thread and yes i admit i made a mistake by buying peaks instead of dips.was being to aggressive. i kinda prefer the 50 pips stoploss and then trail it.100 pips seems to much for me. 50 pips does it for me. might consider the 100pips stop loss.
100 pips sl is based on the volitily...but if your timing is right i think the 50sl will work out just fine.
  • #8,708
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:59am Aug 5, 2009 9:59am
do we implement the AH or bite the bullet if we got stopped and price doesnt go below it wit a minimum of 50 pips?
i use to thinnk we just go ahead with AH when price retraces to your original entry level instead of where the position got stopped. or am i mixing things up
  • #8,709
  • Aug 5, 2009 10:00am Aug 5, 2009 10:00am
Quoting Jpnek
Good thinking, kodflakes. This may help you a bit too, spotless1212:
Quoting narberth
... My upper trendline is not the same as yours can you explain reason for redrawing to include high on 28/7
Hi Tony,

I can't see much in your graphic, but I think that the upper trendline you are referring to, is actually the last Resistance TL I had on my H4 charts before the breakout on 08/03, and although is has been pierced, I still keep it on my charts as I'm still expecting a re-test and a possibly bounce off my Resistance (now turned Support).

The right angled (in a smaller TF) triangle I also had marked there, was to show spotless what I considered may be a better place to go Long (good Resistance TL also turned Support).

Note that my H4 Support Line is way below what you see in that chart (coming all the way from mid April).

This is what is what I'm seeing now:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1.png Size: 30 KB
  • #8,710
  • Aug 5, 2009 10:24am Aug 5, 2009 10:24am
Quoting spotless1212
do we implement the AH or bite the bullet if we got stopped and price doesnt go below it wit a minimum of 50 pips?
i use to thinnk we just go ahead with AH when price retraces to your original entry level instead of where the position got stopped. or am i mixing things up
Dont blindly use the AH look for PA to confirm the AH.
  • #8,711
  • Aug 5, 2009 10:34am Aug 5, 2009 10:34am
Jpnek

Thanks for explaining

Tony
Quoting Jpnek
Hi Tony,

I can't see much in your graphic, but I think that the upper trendline you are referring to, is actually the last Resistance TL I had on my H4 charts before the breakout on 08/03, and although is has been pierced, I still keep it on my charts as I'm still expecting a re-test and a possibly bounce off my Resistance (now turned Support).

The right angled (in a smaller TF) triangle I also had marked there, was to show spotless what I considered may be a better place to go Long (good Resistance TL also turned Support).

Note that my H4...
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #8,712
  • Aug 5, 2009 10:38am Aug 5, 2009 10:38am
Quoting kodflakes
Dont blindly use the AH look for PA to confirm the AH.
thanks alot...currently looking for a good bargain on euro...in that case i am sure most of you guys chickened out on the 3rd of august. bcos you were probably drunk from drinking too many pips buying at 1.4050 on the 30th of last month.
  • #8,713
  • Aug 5, 2009 11:31am Aug 5, 2009 11:31am
its when your buying at the top , its about pull backs, its going higher is your view ,buy at a discount,wait for it to pull back,then enter at a better price,for going long.. look at it like this.you could be buying too high to make a profit.
student
  • #8,714
  • Aug 5, 2009 12:19pm Aug 5, 2009 12:19pm
OK, I'm ready to try to migrate more towards a Jacko only approach. Even though I will probably look at other currencies, I will keep my thoughts on eurusd for the time being (even though it looks like Jacko blessed the idea of legitimate Jacko-approach discussion on other pairs).

I'm seeing S/R at 1.4300 like the rest of you. That is about a 33% retrace of the latest move. Jacko's preferred 50% move is around 1.4200, which is a level where there's no particular S/R - I see it as smack in the middle of a recent Daily channel.

My strategy in concept to trading this might be something like this:
(1) No action at all until price touches 1.4300
(2) Once 1.4300 is touched, open a BUY STOP at 1.4325. Don't want to catch a falling knife. Trail that BUY STOP down as price falls at the +25 pip from lowest price until the BUY STOP is at 1.4300. Hold it there until the next "round number" is reached, at which point I set the BS at 25 pips above lowest price and trail it down.
(3) The 1.4200 50% may be a key level, but with no particualr S/R, it may not hold, so keep that trailing BS strategy in place
(4) The 1.4150 level could be interesting, though. It is near the bottom of the aforementioned Daily channel, is below the 50% retrace, and should be about where the Daily trend line meets price by the time price gets there. I could be more aggressive there if price reaches that far, though for the 25 pips of upside, it may not be worth it.


From you seasoned traders, do these thoughts regarding the charts basically fit in with what Jacko tries to get us to look at? I think it does. Then, secondly, does that "trailing Buy Stop" approach to determining entry seem like a reasonable one? Has anyone tried something like this with either success or failure.

I admit to having dabbled with a similar approach and got burned recently on it, though I was not being as robust with the chart analysis, either (only looking at trend lines - including mid-term, not S/R and retrace levels).

I would appreciate any thoughts and feedback.
  • #8,715
  • Aug 5, 2009 1:05pm Aug 5, 2009 1:05pm
Hi Joe T,

This is a good question. I too would like to know what the actual "Jacko" way of entering the trade is... although it might just be a "gut" call.

I have been doing something similar to what you suggested although I have waited for price to react by 50 pips rather than 25. The reason for this is that I have found that anything less than a 50 pip move is just market noise and a 50 pip bounce off of a good level often indicates further movement in that direction... of course there are no guarantees!

I too would be interested to here how others handle their trade entries and of course a comment from Jacko or a turtle would be very enlightening!

Regards,

Dan
  • #8,716
  • Aug 5, 2009 2:01pm Aug 5, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi Joe T,

This is a good question. I too would like to know what the actual "Jacko" way of entering the trade is... although it might just be a "gut" call.

I have been doing something similar to what you suggested although I have waited for price to react by 50 pips rather than 25. The reason for this is that I have found that anything less than a 50 pip move is just market noise and a 50 pip bounce off of a good level often indicates further movement in that direction... of course there are no guarantees!

I too would be interested to...
I do understand that entries are often in the eye of the beholder. Many times in this thread, the AH strategy has been deemed as the rescuer to sub-par entries. So, there's some comfort in that. However, it seems silly to not try and maximize probability of a good first entry, because while the AH may well get a bad first trade back, it can also double up your loss.

I think there are many different ways of approaching entry, and I've seen many here refer to incorporating J16 methods - something I know zero about at this point. So, I'm looking for something simple that at least makes sense to me, that seasoned traders can look at and at least tell me it seems like a rational approach.

As for whether the move should be 25 or 50, it's probably one of those things I'd get a better feel for over time. There's the balancing act of making the move large enough to maximize the probability that it isn't noise, while at the same time not making it so large that you're giving up unnecessary pips.
  • #8,717
  • Aug 5, 2009 2:14pm Aug 5, 2009 2:14pm
Quoting Joe T
OK, I'm ready to try to migrate more towards a Jacko only approach....


What happens if the price hits your BS at 1.4325 (on bouncing back up from, say, 1.4300) and then decides to keep moving south? It may keep on going up to 1.4200 or even 1.4150 as you say, causing you to meet your SL. Just a thought.
  • #8,718
  • Aug 5, 2009 3:56pm Aug 5, 2009 3:56pm
Quoting eswgfx
What happens if the price hits your BS at 1.4325 (on bouncing back up from, say, 1.4300) and then decides to keep moving south? It may keep on going up to 1.4200 or even 1.4150 as you say, causing you to meet your SL. Just a thought.
No matter where you enter a trade, you run the risk of price reversing and stopping you out. I guess my question is, does this method of entering a trade help minimize the risk of a reversal (25 is just a number - I could use Dan's recommended 50 if I wish)? Or, is there a more time-tested, even safer way? For example, I've seen some suggest that price should test a level, bounce, then come back and test again, and if it bounces again it's a pretty strong signal to enter. Is the additional safety of watching that a net positive trade-off? Meaning, eswgfx's scenario may happen more often off a single bounce than off a double, but on the other hand I will miss out on other trades where the single bounce kept on going.

Nothing's a guarantee. Looking for ways to find the right balance between increasing probability but not being so restrictive that I'm staying out of good trades that could still be yielding positive pips, on average.
  • #8,719
  • Aug 5, 2009 4:27pm Aug 5, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting Joe T
....increasing probability but not being so restrictive that I'm staying out of good trades that could still be yielding positive pips, on average.

JoeT,

You're right in that as traders we get paid to take risk, but in regards to that last sentence, I see positive pips everywhere, but I don't see high quality entry PA everywhere, so just because something is moving, doesn't mean I should be in it, since I had nothing to tell me it would move, or what direction, or for how long it would move that way.

just my 0.02.
  • #8,720
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:30pm Aug 5, 2009 5:30pm
Quoting Low
JoeT,

You're right in that as traders we get paid to take risk, but in regards to that last sentence, I see positive pips everywhere, but I don't see high quality entry PA everywhere, so just because something is moving, doesn't mean I should be in it, since I had nothing to tell me it would move, or what direction, or for how long it would move that way.

just my 0.02.
I agree. What I'm talking about is the right balance on the methodology of getting in. I'm not talking about willy nilly entering.

For example, a double bounce may be a 70% positive profitability trade compared to a single bounce being a 60% probability trade. But if a double counce only happens once for ever 3 single bounces, it's in my best interest to always trade off the first bounce. If the odds go appreciably lower, then it's not. I'll get stopped a little more often, but I more than make up for it.

I guess this is my long way of trying to get feedback on successful entry methods given the conditions that we are in an area where Jacko would start looking at entries (50% retrace, round numbers, support/resistance, trend lines) and the continual warning against "catching a falling knife" or "don't pick your bottom."

Most of the time this question is raised, it seems to generate the following responses: (1) Someone says "I do this..." and then there is some response about how "Jacko says nothing about such and such" or (2) don't worry about it because AH will protect you.

I literally read this entire thread up through mid-2008 or so, and never really got any good feel for people discussing how they go about picking entries. I see a lot of people targeting a certain level, which I understand. But price needs to retrace to those levels, so if limit orders or market orders are being placed as soon as those levels are hit, it seems to violate hte "don't catch a falling knife" admonishment.

Somehow, someway, we are supposed to simultaneously target a dip or retracement and yet not try to catch a falling knife or picking the bottom.

Those who trade this successfully must have some feedback on whether my approach outlined above is remotely in the ballpark, or has some other recommendation. I am aware that many here use Price Action according to J16. I'm quite certain Jacko and many of the turtles don't use that, so what is a sound approach that doesn't require PA?
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