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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #39,941
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:04am Aug 5, 2009 5:04am
Quoting ghous
You should just treat them independently IMHO,

Because look at it like this, you're short Eur/Gbp and long Eur/Cad but that doesn't always mean that you're looking at a weak euro in one pair and stronger euro in the other, the price movement may well be caused by the other pairs...i.e gbp and cad...

Ghous.
I agree. I very rarely look at the correlation of the pairs I am trading. In truth, I don't often have multiple trades on at the same time. But I'm sure there will come a time when I will, as I start taking 4hr live trades.

As some have written it before me, you are simply ordering three currencies against each other, instead of the normal two when you take a trade:

Strongest: GBP>EUR>CAD: Weakest. So you expect EUR to be stronger than CAD but weaker than GBP... Does that make sense?

Josh
  • #39,942
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:18am Aug 5, 2009 5:18am
Quoting ghous
You should just treat them independently IMHO,

Because look at it like this, you're short Eur/Gbp and long Eur/Cad but that doesn't always mean that you're looking at a weak euro in one pair and stronger euro in the other, the price movement may well be caused by the other pairs...i.e gbp and cad.

So for example if GBP goes up eur/gbp will fall but eur/cad maybe little effected...

If you're not willing to go into the depths of exploring co-relations you should just treat them individually and let PA show you the way...

Just my 2 pips....
Ghous,

Thanks for this... I think at my level anyway I will treat them and any others that follow as independant... cheers for the confirmation!

maybe further down the road (much!) I will look into this in more depth but at the moment K.I.S.S!!!

(as a side note the 2 trades are at 100 pips between them so maybe they are good trades!!! LOL!!)

Tom
  • #39,943
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:21am Aug 5, 2009 5:21am
What my eyes see...Happy trading all.
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  • #39,944
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:27am Aug 5, 2009 5:27am
Quoting Jduester
Hi Ben,
In my opinion there are two kinds of Price Action signals, Reversal patterns and Breakout patterns....

Hi Jduester,

That is a great post! Thanks for your time.
I completely agree about the fact they are more powerful played off PPZs. Thanks also for describing the idea behind them.

Quote
I've found that inside bars in general have a much lower win probability with many false breakouts.
That is true. I have noticed it as well. That is the reason I have asked what the J16 style tells about them. I thought maybe trading the breakout of the previous bar will reduce the percentage of false breakouts.
It is true that it is more powerful playing off PPZs, but I am now talking about a different situation. I will try to find a pic for example if you won't understand my description. I am talking about consolidation boxes, where there are inside bars forming in the middle. I will want to play those IBs on there breakout direction and exit when I reach the edge of the box consolidation. Does that make sense or smart to do that?

Ben
  • #39,945
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:27am Aug 5, 2009 5:27am
Quoting Jazflyer
You mentioned a TBLHC, might be my chart but those are not really even close; 1.68884 and 1.69010 ok forget the "pipets" 1.6888/1.6901. Recalling from previous threads, we're looking for 1-2 pip max difference to satisfy the requirement of a TBLHC. That's kinda besides the point though in that the last daily bar hasn't even closed yet, so who knows where it'll end up.
But, if it does close as a TBLHC and you were looking for a long position, some would want to see a retrace back to 1.6745 area with PA to confirm a long entry.
Well said jazz,

A TBLHC is a PA setup that needs to be traded very very carefully,

here's a visual explanation of what Jazz said in his post above,

They are looked for at super good locations and super good form.

Ghous.
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I believe . . .
  • #39,946
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:49am Aug 5, 2009 5:49am
Quoting batesmotel
Five up days in a row...Can the EU go for more? A daily IB break could confirm a resounding yes...

GregB
Just my two cents here. There is a part of me that thinks we could see 1.45 even before we see 1.43 again. I have no doubt that we will see 1.43 again soon. I don't have a problem trading IB's personally, they can be tricky though. What concerns me about taking a trade long at the break of that IB today would be that MACD divergence. Really a 50/50 proposition trade if you ask me. I won't be taking that long to 1.45 if the IB breaks long today. I will however be looking to short at 1.45 or taking a long at 1.43. Of, course I will be watching the lower TF's for some short term $ as well.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #39,947
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:52am Aug 5, 2009 5:52am
Quoting benji533
Hi Jduester,

That is a great post! Thanks for your time.
I completely agree about the fact they are more powerful played off PPZs. Thanks also for describing the idea behind them.

That is true. I have noticed it as well. That is the reason I have asked what the J16 style tells about them. I thought maybe trading the breakout of the previous bar will reduce the percentage of false breakouts.
It is true that it is more powerful playing off PPZs, but I am now talking about a different situation. I will try to find a pic for example if you won't...
Ben, is this the scenario you are talking about? I have not done any prior testing of inside bars in this type of setup. You might back/forward test and let us know your results!

If this isn't what you are talking about, my apologies. Post a chart and I'll try to comment.

Josh
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  • #39,948
  • Aug 5, 2009 6:07am Aug 5, 2009 6:07am
Some mentioned the EURCAD 1Hr PB last night. Here are the current results. Everybody likes a winner.
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I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #39,949
  • Aug 5, 2009 6:08am Aug 5, 2009 6:08am
Quoting Jduester
Ben, is this the scenario you are talking about? I have not done any prior testing of inside bars in this type of setup. You might back/forward test and let us know your results!

If this isn't what you are talking about, my apologies. Post a chart and I'll try to comment.

Josh

You got me right Josh!

That is exactly what I was referring to.
Look at it...it's just perfect. The breakout occurs and then I know exactly where to exit - when the price reaches the edge of the box. That is a good way to trade these kind of sideways markets....am I right?
But the problem is that I have noticed that many times these breakouts of the IBs themselves are not so reliable. So just wanted to know if it will be better to trade the breakouts of the previous bars WHEN THERE IS PLACE FOR PRICE TO MOVE. What do you think?


BTW, you can also setup a buy stop order above that edge, cause you know that price will reserve. You also place a sell stop order below the bottom of the box cause you know that if a breakout will occur there is a good chance it will go further and drop hardly. But that is further thought which I didn't plan to post in the first place.

Ben
  • #39,950
  • Edited 6:30am Aug 5, 2009 6:14am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting KissFan
Just my two cents here. There is a part of me that thinks we could see 1.45 even before we see 1.43 again. I have no doubt that we will see 1.43 again soon. I don't have a problem trading IB's personally, they can be tricky though. What concerns me about taking a trade long at the break of that IB today would be that MACD divergence. Really a 50/50 proposition trade if you ask me. I won't be taking that long to 1.45 if the IB breaks long today. I will however be looking to short at 1.45 or taking a long at 1.43. Of, course I will be watching the...
Yes, perhaps your right....the thing is for me here on the EU: If you drop down to a 1 hour, you can plainly see a typical reactionary wave forming as a bullish flag pattern (with a double bottom)....this pattern is a holding pattern that is just waiting for some news report to confirm the continuation of it's launch to the moon....IMHO anyways...

we have USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in 1 hour and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in 3 hours from now....perhaps those reports will ignite the fuse...or, this pattern may even linger on (like a bad smell) till Friday's NFP...

GregB
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  • #39,951
  • Aug 5, 2009 6:36am Aug 5, 2009 6:36am
Quoting ghous
Ej.
Missed this beauty of a trade, I've been busy today...
For those that took it, it went straight to where it should have,
G.
It's funny, this is the trade I basically scrutinized to death in my journal due to being counter-trend, limited confluence and very likely "twitching to trade" motivated (I took it to that very area and immediately felt that it was beh).

Did it work? Yes. Was the rejection area visible? Yes.
Did it feel like trying to ride the bucking bull(counter-trend) instead of just riding the slow, steady, but safer, mainstream pony trail(with the trend)? Indeedelydoodely.

If I'm already thinking "that high is probably going to be taken out within the day" when I get into the trade, it just doesn't feel right. And that's how it felt like right after I went in. Reaaaally didn't like that.

That's my take on it at least
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #39,952
  • Aug 5, 2009 6:40am Aug 5, 2009 6:40am
Quoting batesmotel
Yes, perhaps your right....the thing is for me here on the EU: If you drop down to a 1 hour, you can plainly see a typical reactionary wave forming as a bullish flag pattern (with a double bottom)....this pattern is a holding pattern that is just waiting for some news report to confirm the continuation of it's launch to the moon....IMHO anyways...

we have USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in 1 hour and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in 3 hours from now....perhaps those reports will ignite the fuse...or, this pattern may even linger on (like a bad...
Ok Bates! We'll probably not have to wait long to see. Good trading bro!

K.I.S.S.
  • #39,953
  • Aug 5, 2009 7:30am Aug 5, 2009 7:30am
You guys know how the following is meant.
--

Why is everyone always so anxious to buy the highs of a move AFTER it's already gone x hundred (in this case 450) pips?

What's wrong with waiting for a retrace + PA setup at a sensible location instead of chasing?

Ask yourself this - would you be as eager to look for 1h patterns to get into a trade if you had a trade from x hundred pips ago already? Or would you add on a retracement+setup? Would your stance differ?

And if the answer to the "have a great trade already" situation is a different one than to the situation of not having a trade at all, ask yourself why having a position or not is making a difference to what/how you would trade and what this really means.

(***Spoiler*** Question: Is a sensible approach negated or any less sensible because you have a position on or not?)

Don't be a "$currencypair thread" type trader. Be a sniper type trader.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #39,954
  • Aug 5, 2009 7:32am Aug 5, 2009 7:32am
Fortunately, I was fast asleep for that bar. These make me nervous, so I tend to skip them.

Price has come back to an area of previous consolidation (look at June), and It does not surprise me that it consolidates again.

What I look for in these areas are butt-kicking PA to launch me out of the mosh-pit and/or solid divergence on the MACD to give me some kind of confluence. Sometimes you just do not get this...

I got a small PB with lots of MACD divergence at the June 6 noon EST bar. And it rolled right over... and turned into a killer trade.

Now, if I was this smart all the time...

Quoting SeekingLight
It's funny, this is the trade I basically scrutinized to death in my journal due to being counter-trend, limited confluence and very likely "twitching to trade" motivated (I took it to that very area and immediately felt that it was beh).

Did it work? Yes. Was the rejection area visible? Yes.
Did it feel like trying to ride the bucking bull(counter-trend) instead of just riding the slow, steady, but safer, mainstream pony trail(with the trend)? Indeedelydoodely.

If I'm already thinking "that high is probably going to be taken out within...
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #39,955
  • Aug 5, 2009 7:49am Aug 5, 2009 7:49am
Quoting raczekfx
Even if we can't tell for sure is the cross is in an uptrend or downtrend you really have to hold me tight... to prevent me from taking shorts...
Broken BEOVB on weekly and retrace to PPZ and 50fib.., add PB to the mix and this is as conservative as it can get for me...
I just read this post by Raczekfx about the CAD/JPY weekly in Jan07. I wonder if a similar setup will play out as well as his did back then. Pinbar at the low... broken... retrace to 50FIB and PPZ... BUOB forms... broken... now about that 90.00 level


http://cloud.forexfactory.com/attach...1&d=1199492396
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  • #39,956
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:11am Aug 5, 2009 8:11am
Quoting benji533
So just wanted to know if it will be better to trade the breakouts of the previous bars WHEN THERE IS PLACE FOR PRICE TO MOVE. What do you think?
YES on space to move, but MUST ALSO HAVE other good supporting factors.

It's the same as all the other set ups. Limit yourself to the very best locations to trade off of. For example... Off of the strongest PPZs , or top of a proven channel, strong Trend Line or whatever.

Those particular instances that you were talking about , (and that Josh highlighted for you) are probably the worst ones to trade. Instead of playing breaks of inside bars in the middle of your box, where you will often get whipsawed, you should trade an inside bar that's off of the top or bottom of the box. .....IF there is clear room for price to retrace through. Or if there is a break out from the box, maybe you end up getting an inside bar , followed by another inside bar, followed by another.... all of them hard up against the top perimeter coiling up and waiting to break out of the box.

Definitely DEMO Inside bars. Take really good notes in your journal each time you trade one and build a knowledge base up for yourself. You'll find the best ones are in the same spots you might find other PA bars. The easier ones will be anyway.

Like Josh and others have noted about IBs.... ...it's best you master the other bar patterns first. It'll make it easier when you are successfully identifying the best AREAS to trade.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #39,957
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:26am Aug 5, 2009 8:26am
Quoting SeekingLight
It's funny, this is the trade I basically scrutinized to death in my journal due to being counter-trend, limited confluence and very likely "twitching to trade" motivated (I took it to that very area and immediately felt that it was beh).

Did it work? Yes. Was the rejection area visible? Yes.
Did it feel like trying to ride the bucking bull(counter-trend) instead of just riding the slow, steady, but safer, mainstream pony trail(with the trend)? Indeedelydoodely.

If I'm already thinking "that high is probably going to be taken out within...
Lol. I see...

But then that means you never take a trade at a swing high/low against the trend?

G.
I believe . . .
  • #39,958
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:07am Aug 5, 2009 9:07am
Quoting SeekingLight

Why is everyone always so anxious to buy the highs of a move AFTER it's already gone x hundred (in this case 450) pips?

What's wrong with waiting for a retrace + PA setup at a sensible location instead of chasing?
IMHO...I try to take what the market will give me rather than insert my hopes and wishes into the future movement. We have Reversal patterns, but let's not forget the continuation patterns.

I'm not sure if you are refering to the EU (buying break of high)...but in this case you can see that in March 2009, the EU began it's ascent with a nice 539 pip run before it took a small breather...The EU then broke an IB and ran another 600 pips!

At the moment, The EU as broken an ascending triangle (continuation pattern), the GU as already run up today (correlation)....and we have an IB setup....

Anyways, I think IMO, that continuations can be missed because we inject our emotions into the charts....

Can EU run further? Sure it can....will it run further...I can't say right now...I jut see that there is a confluence of continuation patterns on the EU chart right now.

GregB
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  • #39,959
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:16am Aug 5, 2009 9:16am
Quoting batesmotel
IMHO...I try to take what the market will give me rather than insert my hopes and wishes into the future movement. We have Reversal patterns, but let's not forget the continuation patterns.

I'm not sure if you are refering to the EU (buying break of high)...but in this case you can see that in March 2009, the EU began it's ascent with a nice 539 pip run before it took a small breather...The EU then broke an IB and ran another 600 pips!

At the moment, The EU as broken an ascending triangle (continuation pattern), the GU as already run up today...
Well said.

It's a real trap thinking "It can't possibly go any further." Because it can and often does.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #39,960
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:21am Aug 5, 2009 9:21am
Hey guys
I want to share with you a recent pdf by M. Pring that I have found today over the internet maybe there are guys who have been readed but for those who didn't I found it very interesting

I hope you enjoy it!

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