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  • #1,961
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:13pm Aug 3, 2009 12:13pm
Quoting ben10
what is your target for the high this week Fammira? as im going to short it
hard to say now, I think we should see if it pulls back and how much

seems like 0,85 - 0,86 is on the card, but actually I would not be too sure, RBA is also around limiting the upside.
  • #1,962
  • Aug 3, 2009 2:21pm Aug 3, 2009 2:21pm
E/A showing weakness. maybe we have more upside today.
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History is written by the victors.
  • #1,963
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:15pm Aug 3, 2009 3:15pm
Broad rally in commodities sparked by weak dollar.

Commodities traders placed more bets on an economic recovery Monday, adding oil, copper and soybeans to their portfolios as the dollar sank to fresh lows.

Upbeat reports on manufacturing activity around the world moved investors to dump traditionally safe-haven assets like the dollar and government bonds in favor of buy riskier assets that stand to benefit more as the economy improves.

The greenback fell to its lowest points since last fall against the euro, pound and other currencies.
"A falling dollar is viewed as inflationary," said Richard Feltes, senior vice president and director of commodity research for MF Global in Chicago. "The best inflationary hedge is typically to increase one's exposure to commodities."

At the same time, a weaker dollar makes commodities cheaper for foreign investors.

Increased risk appetite was evident on Wall Street Monday, with all the major indexes posting gains of at least 1 percent. The stock market is coming off its best July in 20 years.
History is written by the victors.
  • #1,964
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:40pm Aug 3, 2009 4:40pm
Based on good good equities and commodity prices...hoping it'll go up.

Longed at 0.8320 and planning to take profit at 0.8455.

That said, RBA's intervention and a pullback from the excessive stock rallies does put this on fuse a little...

You know that saying...the harder they rise, the harder they fall?
  • #1,965
  • Aug 3, 2009 5:48pm Aug 3, 2009 5:48pm
here is my levels

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1249339694

------------

support resistance

.
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  • #1,966
  • Aug 3, 2009 10:09pm Aug 3, 2009 10:09pm
Quoting fammira
hard to say now, I think we should see if it pulls back and how much

seems like 0,85 - 0,86 is on the card, but actually I would not be too sure, RBA is also around limiting the upside.
it's on the card and trend lines as support and resistance

http://img40.imagefra.me/img/img40/2...0m_7d7869c.png

Ouch!! the scout need rescueing again
  • #1,967
  • Aug 3, 2009 11:40pm Aug 3, 2009 11:40pm
im expecting break 0.9050 on aud/cad position

http://img37.imagefra.me/img/img37/2...1m_231f7c8.png

got to go to work now see u all tonight NY session!
  • #1,968
  • Aug 4, 2009 4:52am Aug 4, 2009 4:52am
Quoting fammira
hard to say now, I think we should see if it pulls back and how much

seems like 0,85 - 0,86 is on the card, but actually I would not be too sure, RBA is also around limiting the upside.
Fammy, I like your posts... dunno why.

But yeh i agree, the RBA does put us on edge. It'll be nice to long, but its a bit like a clean run out of a prison cell yard... with the RBA snipers lurking around. They're probably started a bit already with the dollar going down from 8470 back to 8400. had a few good long runs from 8240 to 8450

Anyway summing it up:

+ Rising equities
+ Rising commodities
+ Everyone loves China (I think)
- RBA intervention
- Excessive stock rallies
  • #1,969
  • Aug 4, 2009 5:34am Aug 4, 2009 5:34am
Quoting T55
Fammy, I like your posts... dunno why.

But yeh i agree, the RBA does put us on edge. It'll be nice to long, but its a bit like a clean run out of a prison cell yard... with the RBA snipers lurking around. They're probably started a bit already with the dollar going down from 8470 back to 8400. had a few good long runs from 8240 to 8450

Anyway summing it up:

+ Rising equities
+ Rising commodities
+ Everyone loves China (I think)
- RBA intervention
- Excessive stock rallies
hi T55,

thanks, I try my best and share my ideas on this nice forum.
More ideas and comments are always welcome.

I think market could even rise more, but looking at the coming months, downside from these levels is slightly more than the potential upside.
I was very bullish on AUD at 0,63 when I started writing here at the beginning of this year.
I have been criticized for that but tried to explain AUD (just like EUR and GBP) was too beaten down on no recovery prospectives.

Now I see any shot to 0,85 - 0,87 as a very good sell opportunity.
Equities keep rising, and they will probably ultimately fall.
I am monitoring an important level on the Dow (9422), and the closer we are to that level, the more I am bullish on the USD.
Of course I might be wrong and this is only how I see things from the humble prospective of a simple trader.

Anyway I want to point out that I start to see some excess in this rise, and further rise could be a good opportunity to catch once sentiment turns into less optimistic than it is now...
  • #1,970
  • Aug 4, 2009 8:05am Aug 4, 2009 8:05am
AUD still pretty bullish atm, though I am looking at a shorter timeframe...guess it could be pushing 85 soon
  • #1,971
  • Aug 4, 2009 8:34am Aug 4, 2009 8:34am
c'mon have mercy on me im short but i understand you guys bullish on aud anything but all positive news for aussie technical included but if 0.84(support) break downward im adding my short
  • #1,972
  • Aug 4, 2009 9:15am Aug 4, 2009 9:15am
Quoting ben10
c'mon have mercy on me im short but i understand you guys bullish on aud anything but all positive news for aussie technical included but if 0.84(support) break downward im adding my short
Heh its mixed. I'd expect it to pull back below 84... it rises and falls pretty reliably but dont take my word for it.

The new Pending Home sales data is just an addition of a strengthening market...hence a stronger dollar.

Hang tight...I've found that I can manage to get away with out putting stop losses at all lol


Try a long of EurUsd if you can read it
  • #1,973
  • Aug 4, 2009 9:59am Aug 4, 2009 9:59am
Quoting T55
Heh its mixed. I'd expect it to pull back below 84... it rises and falls pretty reliably but dont take my word for it.

The new Pending Home sales data is just an addition of a strengthening market...hence a stronger dollar.

Hang tight...I've found that I can manage to get away with out putting stop losses at all lol


Try a long of EurUsd if you can read it
hang tight alright great eur exhibit flag and range on 5 minute i might trade support/resistance this
  • #1,974
  • Aug 4, 2009 10:04am Aug 4, 2009 10:04am
Quoting ben10
hang tight alright great eur exhibit flag and range on 5 minute i might trade support/resistance this
nahhh 1.43 very nice clear breakout on daily , aud/usd will took off to the upside better not to add short ATM
  • #1,975
  • Aug 4, 2009 10:22am Aug 4, 2009 10:22am
i'm wondering if we peaked for a little while at .8468. That long candle wick a few hours seems to be telling us something.

I'm floating a demo short at .8440 to see if it takes.
  • #1,976
  • Aug 4, 2009 10:26am Aug 4, 2009 10:26am
if this week high of 0.8471 not penetrate my short should be fine
  • #1,977
  • Aug 4, 2009 10:33am Aug 4, 2009 10:33am
Quoting Magic Trader
i'm wondering if we peaked for a little while at .8468. That long candle wick a few hours seems to be telling us something.

I'm floating a demo short at .8440 to see if it takes.
0.8440 previous resistance (few hours back) penetrated but not through / follow up
  • #1,978
  • Aug 4, 2009 10:37am Aug 4, 2009 10:37am
in 8420 short 1 minute chart
  • #1,979
  • Aug 4, 2009 10:40am Aug 4, 2009 10:40am
Quoting ben10
in 8420 short 1 minute chart
out - 10 pips
  • #1,980
  • Aug 4, 2009 10:42am Aug 4, 2009 10:42am
Have a bit of patience, decent resistance at 0.8450 so I'd have waited and gone for a short there instead.

But if you do add to your shorts, make sure you've got a decent distance between your lots IMO, otherwise just hang tight.

Slow and steady wins the race. Even if its a frucking slow race lol.
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