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Platypus journal

  • #81
  • Jul 30, 2009 7:04pm Jul 30, 2009 7:04pm
Quoting kristdm
Ha ha, thanks for the video. I always love watching Jim Rogers because he's on a higher level than everyone else in the room. However, I wondered what Platypus and other people on this thread thought about the debt/inflation imbalance he was citing for currencies and the bond market. Although he claims to be the "world's worst trader" because of his notoriously bad timing he is predicting a currency crisis this year or next year. I'm wondering if he's suggesting that this may be a pandemic type of event like the Asian crisis that spread from one...
Hey Kris..thanks for stoping by

I found hilarious the comment " you may get lucky" priceless !

Now about Jim Rogers, be very carefull with what he is talking about. He is a very astute trader and he knows more than anybody else that horses dont talk...... I honestly believe he is short gold, silver, comodities in general and agriculture.

Take care
  • #82
  • Jul 31, 2009 9:04am Jul 31, 2009 9:04am
Ok..I'm closing the shop for the week. Managed to make 20 pips in London and thats it. My weekly goal was achieved on wednesday so no reasons to take any risks.

Another week of stress free trades. Well actualy 95% stress free, because trading on the 15 and 30 min charts is not my style and always requires a little more concentration.

Good Weekend an if your week is still going I wish you a nice trade
  • #83
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:34pm Jul 31, 2009 12:34pm
Well..well..well...again Forex is one day behind equities. Thats the second time in a week that the Forex reaction to spikes on Wall Street comes away too late.

I bet there is a good and logical reason out there but I cant put my finger on it.
  • #84
  • Jul 31, 2009 2:58pm Jul 31, 2009 2:58pm
32 years old EUR/USD chart. Off course before the Euro the Deutsche Mark was used but it does not make a lot of difference.

Notice how we are in a historical resistance area. In 32 years price managed to arrive to this point only 3 times (marked in red) and 3 failed atempts (marked in green).

First hit from 08/1978 till 06/1980

second hit from 01/1991 till 08/1992

Third hit 02/2008

Looking at it anyone can see that price did not stay a lot around this area.

Last time price over shuted the area nicelly, and usually when price goes really high it correct really low. On top of that, it is reasonable to believe that yet another bubble will emerge so quick capable of sending price back up?

I'm talking about long term here. In my view price will go down below parity and stabilise around 1.1.

It could happens sooner than later or take a while but I'm sure we will get there.
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  • #85
  • Jul 31, 2009 3:34pm Jul 31, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting Platypus
32 years old EUR/USD chart. Off course before the Euro the Deutsche Mark was used but it does not make a lot of difference.

Notice how we are in a historical resistance area. In 32 years price managed to arrive to this point only 3 times (marked in red) and 3 failed atempts (marked in green).

First hit from 08/1978 till 06/1980

second hit from 01/1991 till 08/1992

Third hit 02/2008

Looking at it anyone can see that price did not stay a lot around this area.

Last time price over shuted the area nicelly, and usually when price...

Interesting, Plat - thanks. Do you have some historical perspective you care to expound upon? i.e., What are the similarities, in a macroeconomic sense, between today's E/U price rise and the other peaks shown on your chart? Can you say why you think a steep drop will occur sooner rather than later, or at all? Not saying I disagree, just trying to pick your brain. Hope you don't mind.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #86
  • Jul 31, 2009 4:48pm Jul 31, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting The Fool
Interesting, Plat - thanks. Do you have some historical perspective you care to expound upon? i.e., What are the similarities, in a macroeconomic sense, between today's E/U price rise and the other peaks shown on your chart? Can you say why you think a steep drop will occur sooner rather than later, or at all? Not saying I disagree, just trying to pick your brain. Hope you don't mind.

Hey Fool...you are envited to desagree acctually I love when people desagree on my ideas so I can see it from another angle.

Just imagine this chart like a 5 or 15 minutes chart. Risk/reward , is this a area to go long or short ?

Off course this thing can still shut up quite a few pips but on the long run I believe the trend is down, the dollar will come back even if encarned in another currency !
  • #87
  • Jul 31, 2009 5:42pm Jul 31, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting Platypus
Off course this thing can still shut up quite a few pips but on the long run I believe the trend is down, the dollar will come back even if encarned in another currency !
You mean, I think "reincarnated as another currency" .... right? Well I didn't see that one coming. Something like the "yuandollar", maybe...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #88
  • Jul 31, 2009 5:53pm Jul 31, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting The Fool
You mean, I think "reincarnated as another currency" .... right? Well I didn't see that one coming. Something like the "yuandollar", maybe...?
I was thinking on something like the Amero
  • #89
  • Jul 31, 2009 5:54pm Jul 31, 2009 5:54pm
Quoting The Fool
You mean, I think "reincarnated as another currency" .... right? Well I didn't see that one coming. Something like the "yuandollar", maybe...?
yep "reincarnated"...sorry about my english
  • #90
  • Aug 1, 2009 3:13pm Aug 1, 2009 3:13pm
Wow, I don't know many people who look that far back- that was some nice insight. Despite all of the problems in the US, the Euro has some real fundamental problems of its own. The whole EMU concept is just an experiment anyway, and many don't expect it to be able to hold together because of demographical, economic, and political reasons. If a perception emerges that the Euro isn't all that it's cracked up to be as a reserve currency replacement, Platypus' theory could take form. From a week to week trading point of view, however, I don't consider that big of a scale.

On the more immediate scale, the Euro has not been that enthusiastic on challenging the upper end of its range lately, even with news and earnings suggesting the possibility of an economic recovery. The fact that the ECB is way behind on the rate cycle and that the IMF comes out and says that the ECB better save some money for more rate cuts is not a good sign. I am slightly bearish now and will see how this unfolds.

Happy weekend everybody,

Kris Matthews
  • #91
  • Aug 1, 2009 9:41pm Aug 1, 2009 9:41pm
I found a interesting chart over the net.

Looks like that this kind of exponential "looks" is getting quite popular. What scared me a little in this chart was the fact that it is " inflation adjusted " so this big drop is real !
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  • #92
  • Edited 3:48am Aug 2, 2009 3:36am | Edited 3:48am
Quoting Platypus
I found a interesting chart over the net.

Looks like that this kind of exponential "looks" is getting quite popular. What scared me a little in this chart was the fact that it is " inflation adjusted " so this big drop is real !
it looks like fake for 2 reasons
1. if it's real, then it's not going to recover anytime soon
in some part of the world stocks has recovered to equal highest or 2nd highest yr of past 10 yrs.
if earning links with profit and demand then that recovery is likely imaginary and unfounded.
2. if it's fake,
it makes more sense because people who liquidity their stocks acc at bottom is actually robbed by gov who 'rescue' big company at penny price.
if it come back soon, then money transfer from people who sold at bottom to gov and agency that is behind the gov

it sounds like 2nd is more realistic... why gov is so sure that recovery is ready? if assumption is #1 it does not make sense.
  • #93
  • Edited 4:25am Aug 2, 2009 4:13am | Edited 4:25am
ok look at excel spread sheet here.
The reality of S&P 500 earnings - The Sovereign Speculator

the div tab... even if econ no recovery but just flat out rest 2 quarters (Q2 q2q -0.1% which is not bad)

sp500 div yield will be 20$ out of 1k$ a share, which is 2% not bad.

I would favor anything yielding 5% return a year
and if it's no-risk/stable 8-12% a year that is probably best investment ever.
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  • #94
  • Aug 2, 2009 7:50am Aug 2, 2009 7:50am
Quoting billye
it looks like fake for 2 reasons
1. if it's real, then it's not going to recover anytime soon
in some part of the world stocks has recovered to equal highest or 2nd highest yr of past 10 yrs.
if earning links with profit and demand then that recovery is likely imaginary and unfounded.
2. if it's fake,
it makes more sense because people who liquidity their stocks acc at bottom is actually robbed by gov who 'rescue' big company at penny price.
if it come back soon, then money transfer from people who sold at bottom to gov and agency that is behind...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05...gs-decline-90/
  • #95
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:40pm Aug 3, 2009 12:40pm
Trade update.

The pin bar on the 30 min chart sunday night was a no brainer...good for 39 pips. The double bottom on the same time frame was another in your face trade but I lost it because I was sleeping.

Time for me to go back trade the 4 hour chart. The smaller time frames permits you a better risk control but in exchange you pretty much loose the big moves.

Nice trade to all!
  • #96
  • Aug 3, 2009 1:27pm Aug 3, 2009 1:27pm
My strategy does not take in consideration this kind of scenario, but I found very interesting how the 365SMA after being tested a few times gave up.

Note also the almost perfect re-test before shutting up...sometimes Forex is just "visually beautyfull" !
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  • #97
  • Aug 3, 2009 11:14pm Aug 3, 2009 11:14pm
Usually on the days before non farm price behaves like sunday night or frydays so I'm not very inclined to trade unless I'm having a really strong signal.

Since I'm just watching the markets I decided to do some research about banks, mortgages, and the FDIC and everything still points to catastrophic events.

Fisrt looks like that the FDIC is runing out of money. Acconding to some fonts they have a little oven 1 billion in their pockets right now. Off course they can tap more money from the governament and money is not the issue here but what effect the news will do to the market.

Second...according to this link :
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fdi...tly-2009-08-03

the same FDIC is urging banks to take their losses, instead of keeping zombie mortgages in their books.

I guess averybody here in the States knows someboby that was foreclosed and is still living in the foreclosed property. thats happening not because the system cant deal with so many foreclosures ( as the media is saying) If was not of the best interest of the banks you will see how quick the legal system will work and this people will be in the street in no time . The truth is that people are still in the houses because the banks dont want to take their losses. If all banks start to take action in their foreclosed properties and kick people out of the houses the supply will go up consequently prices will go down and the banks will be forced to write down this kind of losses in their books.

This kind of scenario also helps the economy a little because money that use to go to pay mortgeges are going to savings or consumption.

It is a ticking bomb folks and I just want to see how long until the situation get unsustainable.

The dollar is getting hammered and in consequence commodities are starting to raise, just take a look on futures and you will have a idea. Soon the FED will have to choose and thats not a easy. Saving the dollar will crank up interest rates crash the market and take real state out of its misery. Leting the dollar go to hell will send oil to 300 dollars, make the chinese very unhappy and a possible deflationary ( or stagflation) scenario will emerge.

In any situation if you trade your strategy you will be ahead of the game

Good trade to all.
  • #98
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:29pm Aug 4, 2009 1:29pm
we are in a tipical pre non farm side way move.

I'm buying and selling on anything above or below the yellow lines. When the break out finaly comes, I will be stopped out for 15 pips, since I made 80 pips so far it is kind of A free trade so I will keep doing it

I don't like to trade this way for two reasons.

First because I have to shrink my lot sizes.

Second because I have to be glued to the screen.

Since I lost the week's bigest move so far, and there is no garantie that another decent move will occour before friday I believe scalping is the way to go for now.
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  • #99
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:51pm Aug 4, 2009 1:51pm
Another very good article to help us understand what is going on behind the curtains.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mon...elines-fallacy
  • #100
  • Edited 9:54pm Aug 4, 2009 9:39pm | Edited 9:54pm
ABC consumer confidence -49....last month -47

Equities are going up on thin volume and down in BIG volume

Volume to price correlation -81

The markts will go up untill enough suckers are in, trade the trend but...try to get out while the music is still playing!

Good trade to all
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