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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #20,561
  • Edited 7:08pm Jul 31, 2009 6:44pm | Edited 7:08pm
Quoting fena74
I have a simple question. Nowadays I have backtested Eur/Usd from 10.2008 and 11.2008 where average size candles are more than 100 pips long.I found difficulties to find more than 2 trades for each of these months because of the fact that it was very difficult to me to set reasonable stop loss. I do not want to set stop loss longer than 50-65 pips so I tried to use fibonachi on the previous candle and to try to enter on 40% retrace of the previous candle but still have difficulties. I try to do only TC signals and the question I wish to ask...
I started to trade with smaller stops recently because I thought that the volatility had reduced with the very quiet market. However it didn't work and I got stopped out more often. So I have concluded the same as Davidwu61 that the only way to trade is to have smaller lots with a reasonable stop size. I use around 70 - 100 pip stops but will close early if I am watching the trade and am unhappy with the progress.
  • #20,562
  • Jul 31, 2009 6:50pm Jul 31, 2009 6:50pm
Quoting ssq
Attachment
SSQ, there is no TC signal based on price action there. The red candle is a high wave candle and denotes indecision.
It is better for you to wait for macd signal if you are uncertain.
  • #20,563
  • Edited 8:44pm Jul 31, 2009 7:59pm | Edited 8:44pm
Quoting yuan83
actually if you all have seen philip's weekly expectation for this week, u can see the nice bounce off from the support line he drew on the pdf for both EU and AU. however this is only on retrospect of cos.
Yes Phil was correct which is why he is the master. EU bounced off the purple trendline on the daily - which would have been hard to anticipate last Sunday. Even on Wednesday, I was thinking that it would keep falling to the green trendline or even further. Now we have a Zero Break TC on the daily but it is facing resistance right now.
Good thing you were paying attention, YuanHope u made some pips from it.
Attached Image
  • #20,564
  • Jul 31, 2009 10:34pm Jul 31, 2009 10:34pm
Quoting xeneric
Yes Phil was correct which is why he is the master. EU bounced off the purple trendline on the daily - which would have been hard to anticipate last Sunday. Even on Wednesday, I was thinking that it would keep falling to the green trendline or even further. Now we have a Zero Break TC on the daily but it is facing resistance right now.
Good thing you were paying attention, YuanHope u made some pips from it.

haha i did made some pips when I LONG on seeing all the tails and bullish divergence. However I fail to catch the big move of yday, because of the up and down in movement previously, I closed my trade prematurely, so really make just "some pips". ha
  • #20,565
  • Edited Aug 1, 2009 12:38am Jul 31, 2009 11:02pm | Edited Aug 1, 2009 12:38am
Quoting yuan83
haha i did made some pips when I LONG on seeing all the tails and bullish divergence. However I fail to catch the big move of yday, because of the up and down in movement previously, I closed my trade prematurely, so really make just "some pips". ha
I made some pips too but it was out of pure luck. On the 4 hr, it had broken through the yellow trendline and pulled back to it - see small blue rectangle. I took the TC on the 1 hr after the pullback - see dotted line. Then I went to sleep. When I woke up, it hit my TP. It was a good thing my stop was reasonably big otherwise I would have been stopped out.
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  • #20,566
  • Aug 1, 2009 1:15am Aug 1, 2009 1:15am
Well it is NFP week again. Not only that, we have RBA, ECB and BOE rate decisions. USD, EUR, GBP and AUD are affected. So, this is a very busy news week.
  • #20,567
  • Aug 1, 2009 9:18am Aug 1, 2009 9:18am
Quoting nasir.khan
I wont say much :
....

and there is no trade on macd. I know that sometimes you feel that you could grab some extra pips by entering before the close of the bar (i have done that also) sometimes you get some pips but some time price reverse and you just gave back those "Extra" pips(with some extra FINE of course) so try to be patient and follow the rules.
Appreciated all comments, thx all.
But nasir, I am sure: the 4h bar CLOSED with a red macd candle confirming a TC, but after few minutes it turned into green, becouse of the new bar (I suppose). So, my question is: a closed macd bar can change as the next bar change ? Or there's something else I'm missing ?

"so try to be patient and follow the rules.": yes of course ! :-)
  • #20,568
  • Aug 1, 2009 12:49pm Aug 1, 2009 12:49pm
Quoting andy1969
Appreciated all comments, thx all.
But nasir, I am sure: the 4h bar CLOSED with a red macd candle confirming a TC, but after few minutes it turned into green, becouse of the new bar (I suppose). So, my question is: a closed macd bar can change as the next bar change ? Or there's something else I'm missing ?
I prefer to think rules of a trading system as a hint which helps increase one's chance of making a winning trade. If a system can help one win more than 70% of times, it is already a pretty good system.

A closed bar gives more reliable (not 100%) signal than price movement in action. one may still face another reversal signal after a confirmed bar; one possible solution,as some members of this thread mentioned, for this is to look for signals (divergence, stochastic) over other time frames for confirmation .

Trading is not a sure thing, it still depends on one's luck sometimes.
  • #20,569
  • Aug 1, 2009 5:10pm Aug 1, 2009 5:10pm
hi andy,

Lets assume it does give a tc signal on the macd to the downside.
It is not considered high probability trade. The price is
in between 89 and 200. We can trade between them if a certain
bounce between these edges are establish over a range period.

While we are waiting, the price shoot up and is out of all moving averages and is in uptrend. We are now waiting for pullback and waiting for tc to the upside.

regards
jin
  • #20,570
  • Aug 2, 2009 6:57pm Aug 2, 2009 6:57pm
anyone planing to take RT on EU ..
  • #20,571
  • Aug 2, 2009 10:58pm Aug 2, 2009 10:58pm
Quoting gujjubond
anyone planing to take RT on EU ..
8-EMA is 25 pips away and stop loss is 55 pips away so wait for the jump of the MA's and TC on MACD.
  • #20,572
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:15am Aug 3, 2009 12:15am
I think GU has acceptable R:R
  • #20,573
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:29am Aug 3, 2009 12:29am
G/U has strong support at 1.6703 so shorting it in my oppionion isnt the best idea. EUR is also in my oppinion in a no trade zone betwen 1.4235 and 1.4200.

So yes like nasir said...wait for TC.
  • #20,574
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:56am Aug 3, 2009 12:56am
Quoting fxlan
G/U has strong support at 1.6703 so shorting it in my oppionion isnt the best idea. EUR is also in my oppinion in a no trade zone betwen 1.4235 and 1.4200.

So yes like nasir said...wait for TC.

Thank you fxlan, but can you explain why 1.6703 is a strong support.
  • #20,575
  • Aug 3, 2009 1:00am Aug 3, 2009 1:00am
Quoting nrousan
Thank you fxlan, but can you explain why 1.6703 is a strong support.
Draw a Horizontal Line at 1.6703 and see.
  • #20,576
  • Aug 3, 2009 1:01am Aug 3, 2009 1:01am
Yeah sorry i meant 1.6700 area...i just have a line at 1.6703.

Look at the last 4 bars...all have tails under the 6700 area but all closed above.
Plus look at 29 june...a candle went through came back and reversed right under 6700. So it acted as resistance then and now 4 candles like support. In my oppionion it is a valid area to consider as support. Plus it is a round number.
  • #20,577
  • Aug 3, 2009 1:09am Aug 3, 2009 1:09am
Right. Thank you nasir and fxlan
  • #20,578
  • Aug 3, 2009 1:38am Aug 3, 2009 1:38am
I hope someone took it
  • #20,579
  • Aug 3, 2009 2:28am Aug 3, 2009 2:28am
guys..I missed the nice TC on GU 1hr. I wasn't focusing.. it got nice EG candle off the 21 ema which covered previous 6 1hr Candles.. There was no reason not to take it..

ST was under 65 pips and infinite target because TC.
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  • #20,580
  • Aug 3, 2009 2:52am Aug 3, 2009 2:52am
  •  nerd
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Fate loves the fearless. | 48 Posts
Just my 2 cents...
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