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AUD/USD

  • #1,921
  • Jul 30, 2009 7:06pm Jul 30, 2009 7:06pm
Quoting Money-RX
This could be a great dip to buy. Long from 8170 with a tight SL.
A/U - Best currency pair in forex....
History is written by the victors.
  • #1,922
  • Jul 30, 2009 7:13pm Jul 30, 2009 7:13pm
Yellow dash line is the fib levels.
Looks like may be a H&S coming up.
Just keep buying the dips.
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History is written by the victors.
  • #1,923
  • Jul 30, 2009 11:05pm Jul 30, 2009 11:05pm
Need to get thru a fib @ 8288 for smoother sailing above.
History is written by the victors.
  • #1,924
  • Jul 30, 2009 11:09pm Jul 30, 2009 11:09pm
Yellow line is the level to crash for a run up to 8335
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History is written by the victors.
  • #1,925
  • Jul 30, 2009 11:29pm Jul 30, 2009 11:29pm
Cup & Handle forming on A/J bullish continuation pattern which could mean up for A/U also.
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History is written by the victors.
  • #1,926
  • Jul 31, 2009 3:37am Jul 31, 2009 3:37am
hi all!

let's try to visualize the situation for the next sessions.

bias and sentiment are still favouring the upside for this pair and the makets, and AUDUSD is still below recent highs at 0,8339.

We will likely need some more time and tests to overcome that level, but it seems AUD will eventually make new highs.

Dips are still chances to build long positions, with support seen in the 0,8190 - 0,8220 area with extension to 0,8240.

Uptrend anyway still intact above 0,8125 (the low we saw on July 29th), but I doubt will see it soon.
In case we go below 0,8125, shorts positions are to favour (or at least hedge the position below) and we'll review our strategy.

In case 0,8339 is broken indeed, we could see 0,8383 and maybe 0,8430.
Reached those levels, or one of the two maybe early next week, I would consider taking profit in case I am long or opening a sell position for a pullback.

Let's watch the market and try to see where is going to.
Next month in case AUD reaches 0,85 - 0,86, the long term short chance we had been waiting for some time could eventually come...
  • #1,927
  • Jul 31, 2009 8:55am Jul 31, 2009 8:55am
the price does not move a lot , 0.8265 hugging
  • #1,928
  • Jul 31, 2009 10:53am Jul 31, 2009 10:53am
Quoting fammira
In case 0,8339 is broken indeed, we could see 0,8383 and maybe 0,8430.
Reached those levels, or one of the two maybe early next week, I would consider taking profit in case I am long or opening a sell position for a pullback.
we may be headed for there now, before it calls it a week.

PA has been remarkable consistent this week. everyone should have done very well this week. even if you incorrectly tried shorting when the market went long, it still came back quite reliably.

I will take time this weekend and study the charts thoroughly to see how the trading opportunities presented themselves this week. Everyone might want to do that as next week may be more of the same.

I can't believe the big dip is imminent. but if, as fammira says, price hits .84-.85, start looking at your shorting positions.

Have a great weekend everyone.
  • #1,929
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:22pm Jul 31, 2009 12:22pm
max tested, on Monday will probably break it, ready to sell for a quick pullback above the highs...
  • #1,930
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:47pm Jul 31, 2009 12:47pm
Quoting fammira
max tested, on Monday will probably break it, ready to sell for a quick pullback above the highs...

well, it seems like we'll see new highs before Monday...
  • #1,931
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:26pm Jul 31, 2009 1:26pm
Took profit on my 3 lots that I'd been holding since 0.7950. I'm all cash now.

Will look for short if it gets near 0.85. Otherwise, will look for longs around 0.8150-0.82.

Have a good weekend all.
  • #1,932
  • Jul 31, 2009 2:42pm Jul 31, 2009 2:42pm
It doesn't get any better than this.

I would say 85 for sure next week but will have to spend the weekend analyzing. Nothing last forever especially in forex.

Have a good weekend everyone.
History is written by the victors.
  • #1,933
  • Edited 6:09pm Jul 31, 2009 5:59pm | Edited 6:09pm
perhaps 85. like your said anything can happen and probably will
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  • #1,934
  • Jul 31, 2009 6:01pm Jul 31, 2009 6:01pm
next week I suppose we'll see a strong open, good to open shorts on, a pullback good to close the shorts and be long again for 0,84 - 0,85
  • #1,935
  • Jul 31, 2009 7:19pm Jul 31, 2009 7:19pm
Quoting supermatt
perhaps 85. like your said anything can happen and probably will
i think your name is super smart 0.85 very critical indeed and if the high volatility play to be repeated next week/month expecting the the price will travel between 0.8500 - 0.7750.

if you had short position(me)! stop adding it above 0.85, use synthetic long to hedge (aud/nzd X nzd/usd=aud/usd long)

http://img37.imagefra.me/img/img37/2...4m_741eed1.png
  • #1,936
  • Jul 31, 2009 8:57pm Jul 31, 2009 8:57pm
ty lol
my bet is it will get up to 85 then there will be bulk sell orders placed there by banks and will come down to be a shooting star.
  • #1,937
  • Aug 1, 2009 3:04am Aug 1, 2009 3:04am
Quoting ben10
i think your name is super smart 0.85 very critical indeed and if the high volatility play to be repeated next week/month expecting the the price will travel between 0.8500 - 0.7750.

if you had short position(me)! stop adding it above 0.85, use synthetic long to hedge (aud/nzd X nzd/usd=aud/usd long)

http://img37.imagefra.me/img/img37/2...4m_741eed1.png
Hi ben10,
I don't know to much about synthetic hedging. Can you or someone here help me? I am stuck in a short, in aud/jpy back at 77.00 is there a hedge that I can use to counter that short? Or do you think that we could be back there anytime soon?
Thanks
fxst
  • #1,938
  • Aug 1, 2009 3:22am Aug 1, 2009 3:22am
a/j has potential to reach 80 so if you can sit through abit more heat maybe put in another short position up there?
  • #1,939
  • Aug 1, 2009 3:47am Aug 1, 2009 3:47am
Quoting supermatt
a/j has potential to reach 80 so if you can sit through abit more heat maybe put in another short position up there?
Thanks for the response super. Yeah, I can take more heat before it can get ugly. Thought that i would look for some advice of where it would be good to add to the shorts and build something that I can work my way out of. instead of adding more damage to the fire.

Wouldn't be doing so bad if I would not have killed my long on au from 8160 so early. (Live & learn)

Thanks for the reply and GLT

fxst
  • #1,940
  • Aug 1, 2009 9:14am Aug 1, 2009 9:14am
Quoting fxstman
Hi ben10,
I don't know to much about synthetic hedging. Can you or someone here help me? I am stuck in a short, in aud/jpy back at 77.00 is there a hedge that I can use to counter that short? Or do you think that we could be back there anytime soon?
Thanks
fxst
do not panic the market either trending or ranging, do nothing to aussie/yen cross but go long on nzd/jpy currently say 63.00 ouch!
well atleast it reduce your pain(locked in loss) so 77.00 : 63.00 = 1.2222 (aud/nzd synthetic short).

@if the price stay above 1.2222 ! the range 1.2222 - 1.3000 use smallest margin available so you can fill long orders & take profit orders every the entire pips range(1.2222 -1.30) or you may play dollar cost averaging.The objective is to get rid off some loss(negative pips) you currently locked.

@ samallest margin used as above but using multiple pairs such as:
aud/nzd x nzd/usd x usd/cad x cad/jpy = aud/jpy(long)
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