Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading | Page 218 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

M5 PASR Trend Trading Strat 95 replies

What you need for trading: indis, a strat & good music 27 replies

Another way to stress free, mechanic long term trading 29 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Exit Attachments

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #4,341
  • Jul 30, 2009 11:46am Jul 30, 2009 11:46am
Quoting strat
Just a quick eyeball suggests a fall down to the TL before a further move higher but I'm no fortune teller.

I just cannot get my head around any type of waves. The last time I used EW theory in my trading, my account "waved" goodbye!
Love your sense of humour sir.

Totally agree with the subjectivity of waves, just an another tool i keep a side eye on. Nice when they work but not too sure they are the reason the trades work.

Z
  • #4,342
  • Jul 30, 2009 11:55am Jul 30, 2009 11:55am
Just a reminder for us in the US that tomorrow is the last day we can operate under the prior rules.

As of August 2nd, forex has been brought into line with futures trading meaning that to close an existing position, you have to place an order in the opposite direction:

Example:

Using entry orders for stop-loss and limits after July 31, 2009:
For Buy Positions:
Placing an entry order to sell below the price where you got into the position protects you from additional losses. Placing an entry order to sell above the price where you got in locks in profits.
For example, if you have a BUY EUR/USD position at 1.3900, you could place:
a stop-loss using a sell entry order (Stop Entry, SE) at 1.3800
or
a limit using a sell entry order (Limit Entry, LE) at 1.4000.


For Sell Positions:
Placing an entry order to buy above the price where you got in protects you from additional losses. Placing an entry order to buy below the price where you got in locks in profits.
For example, if you have a SELL EUR/USD position at 1.3900, you could place:
a stop-loss using a buy entry order (Stop Entry, SE) at 1.4000
or
a limit using a buy entry order (Limit Entry, LE) at 1.3800.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,343
  • Jul 30, 2009 12:37pm Jul 30, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting strat
Just a reminder for us in the US that tomorrow is the last day we can operate under the prior rules.

As of August 2nd, forex has been brought into line with futures trading meaning that to close an existing position, you have to place an order in the opposite direction:

Example:...
Thanks for the reminder. In your opinion what's the advantage of this rule change? I haven't been able to figure it out. Surely a change to a none US based broker changes nothing!!

Z
  • #4,344
  • Jul 30, 2009 12:49pm Jul 30, 2009 12:49pm
Quoting zuret9
Thanks for the reminder. In your opinion what's the advantage of this rule change? I haven't been able to figure it out. Surely a change to a none US based broker changes nothing!!

Z
There is no advantage to traders. I suspect it is the SEC who want more regulatory control over forex and therefore bring it into line with Securities, Futures and Commodities procedures.

My guess is it is a fall out from the banking crisis and a tightening of all Fed fiscal practices and procedures. I don't think it will end here either. I think there is more to come and I would expect pressure to be put on other countries.

But what do I know?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,345
  • Edited 2:14pm Jul 30, 2009 1:54pm | Edited 2:14pm
Update on my Momentum Cycles and Cycles.

Regular readers of this thread will know that despite what Dr. Joe told me, I continued to believe we could mathematically enhance our PASR trading. After losing $thousands using indicators, I knew that was not the Path to follow. After thousands and thousands of hours studying Gann, Dow, Elliott, Fibonacci and many others, I believed that work was exhausted.

Since my PhD thesis was on Harmonics and Vibrational Analysis, I guess I am hooked on sine waves, resonance and cycles so despite there being a few already well established and respected cycle analysts, decided to go that route.

After about 18 months of development, I came up with a Momentum Cycles integrator which looked promising to the point that I thought I had found the Holy Grail (even though I knew the only Holy Grail was me). In parallel with this, I developed my cycles differentiator.

Like all the systems, black boxes, indicators and all that other junk that is scammed to the unsuspecting “wannabe a trader”, they looked absolutely brilliant in back testing. So much so that I was transported to a deserted Caribbean Island inhabited only by young, virile, voluptuous women only to be woken from my “vision” by the BOSS who thought I had fallen asleep at my one eyed monster!

Testing the Momentum Cycles integrator real time was a huge disappointment. I had it set up in a couple of ways – one where price crossed the integrator and another where another integrator crossed it. As a result of my backtests, my idea was to “blindly” enter a trade when triggered and exit on the next trigger and in between, adding contracts on dips/rallies. Fantastic theory but lousy in practice.

Knowing that any derived “indicator/signal” will always be lagging no matter how much acceleration you introduce into the formula, frustrated the hell out of me. Even worse was the fact that I couldn’t combine price and time in one indicator/signal. The big problem is, just like any other indicator/signal/system, is that you need future prices to accurately and decisively turn the integrator.

After combining my theories with already commercially available scripts, the best I could get it to perform was just not good enough for what I wanted. I suppose I was looking for something to read into future PASR which is just about as good as looking into a glass eye. As you would expect, the integrator was fully dependent on price action: on a rounding top like we had recently on USDCHF it was as flat as a fart and on a “V” bottom as we had recently on USDCAD, it “jumped” five bars. The regular readers will remember my using it on USDCAD on April 19 where it called a quadruple pip trade and “I” screwed up on it!

Although this is still profitable, it lacks the consistency I need so I have shelved it in favour of other ideas.

My cycles work was going great until I accidently deleted my script (program) and realized I had not made a copy of it – 18 months work down the drain! Fortunately, I could remember 90% of the program – that was the easy bit – the 10% I couldn’t remember was all the experimental “what if” scenarios.

I have now got to the point with my cycles differentiator where I see some value. It is not, and never will be exact. Nothing which is dependent on some future action can never ever be exact. At first, I wanted the differentiator to be exact so that it would trigger trades much as I envisaged for the Momentum Cycles integrator. When I accepted that there is nothing, and never will be, exact signals in any type of trading, I changed my thinking.

Instead of using the cycles differentiator as a “signal”, I decided to use it as a “warning” and look for PASR as the trigger. The problem with any mathematically based program is the response and sensitivity of the latest input to past input which causes the false signals. These false signals can be anywhere from 1 bar to 5 and sometimes 7 bars all depending on volatility of future prices BUT when I combine this with PASR and my “bar set up” style, I can see this has great potential.

My M15 AUSUSD trade was basically a hybrid test of this. My cycles differentiator “warned” me of a top during the London session while I was still in the land of nod so I had added confidence to trade a break of support of the expected down move. My PLAN was very simple – a SL moved to BE to protect profits and get out at the first cycle differentiator bottom warning. Unfortunately, due to the length of time in this trade, I had lost interest and knowing that my profits were protected, did more interesting things. By the time I got back to the one eyed monster, we had already passed the bottom and had to “nurse” it to its conclusion.

Last night at 9pm PST, my time (00:00 EST), I was thinking of getting up early again to do a M5 run on The Beast. As I worked my way from the Worker down the shorter time frames, H4 was showing a cycle bottom on a “wishy washy” bond hammer type bar. Since my SL was only 147 pips and “everything” was looking up, I saw this as another test opportunity so placed my buy stop above the “set up” bar.

My PLAN was even simpler this time as I had no intention to baby sit the damned thing – get out at the first warning of a cycle top or take the loss. So when I finally get my lazy ass out of bed and do what needs to be done to make myself presentable to the human race, I see the cycle top was called on my 8am PST (11am EST) bar and despite the next bar forming above the close of that bar, get out as per the PLAN.
Not bad for sleeping on a trade, me thinks. However, I keep myself in check by remembering the losing trade I had doing this exact same thing on the Worker EURUSD 6 weeks ago.

There is still a long way to go on this but there is definitely some potential in this. More later.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy cycles.gif Size: 23 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,346
  • Jul 30, 2009 8:23pm Jul 30, 2009 8:23pm
Quoting zuret9
Hi Strat,

What's your take on the attached Wolfe Wave setup on the S&P500 Daily chart? Looks like we are in the sell area! Good target to the downside (if it works out).

On my watch list.

Z
Unless we are now in Wave 3.
  • #4,347
  • Edited 9:18pm Jul 30, 2009 8:33pm | Edited 9:18pm
Quoting strat
Update on my Momentum Cycles and Cycles.
Watch out or I may have to rename this thread Shaaf instead of Strat! Interesting stuff. I do know the cycles idea is used as a background tracer of sorts by some in the banking group. Reliability and predictability seem to be the challenges, as you say. It does give one a framework though, which to me is critical to planning and avoiding chaos.
  • #4,348
  • Jul 30, 2009 9:55pm Jul 30, 2009 9:55pm
Hopefully you have seen this and already acted. If not, get out Strat's manual on ................................
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad worker.gif Size: 22 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,349
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:01am Jul 31, 2009 1:01am
BEEB so we are looking for a break of the support

I placed an order below the low point
  • #4,350
  • Jul 31, 2009 3:03am Jul 31, 2009 3:03am
I'm still troubled by BEEB and BEOB etc. I have gone thru many charts on F12 and I have played dummy orders on these bars AT SR levels and found that I would have been 'burnt' on many of them?
In your last example chart Strat you have a BEOB on what looks like a good ASR level on about 30/31 Jun. For extra confidence we have a failed hammer a few bars before which showed the market may have been fully priced. In that example the set-up failed (it didn't trigger) but agressive traders who may have got in early (ie before the low of the set-up) would have been 'rinsed'.

On many of these bars it seems the MMs know where the orders will be and I have noticed a few that get triggered by 5-10 pips then reverse and stop you out?

Is there a more realiable entry - what else should I look for as I think I'm missing something??

In your example posted, I'd be reluctant to take that set up as it's at the bottom of a move surely? There is buying pressure there as shown by the bull trend bar before the BEEB that took out the highs of the previous 3 bars. When trends change we often get large trend bars in opposite directions showing the battle between bulls and bears. Your example also looks like a double bottom? All in all I would not be thinking of shorting here but looking for PASR to get long, but only if I had a good set-up - otherwise I would just sit that one out?
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,351
  • Jul 31, 2009 11:32am Jul 31, 2009 11:32am
Quoting Naws
BEEB so we are looking for a break of the support

I placed an order below the low point
Oh dear! So you didn't read my posts # 4280, 4290 and 4312?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,352
  • Jul 31, 2009 11:59am Jul 31, 2009 11:59am
No I read, we are at a strong support and looking for a retrace after that move down, we had a decent bullish close but it didn't break the mini resistance at 1.0940. The price could still go either way right? It could very well break the support and continue going down so since we had a bearish candle I placed a sell order below the low of the 28th. It hasn't triggered so nothing gained or lost. Plus I would feel better being in a short because it is quite a strong downtrend.

Please correct me if my thinking is wrong.
  • #4,353
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:16pm Jul 31, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting Grimweasel
I'm still troubled by BEEB and BEOB etc....
First thing to remember, Danny, is that nothing, NOTHING in trading is perfect and guaranteed to work every time. You can have a 100% perfect set up and for reasons known only to the market, it will not work. This is why we need good MM to manage our losses and keep them smaller than our winners.

The shooting star on June 25 took me for a ride – I got filled and stopped out on June 30. I thought I had my SL far enough out at 1.1643 but the market thought different.

The BEEB on July 1st didn’t trigger a sell the following day so there would have been no loss there.

The BEOB on July 13 was a perfect example producing a triple pip trade.

The big boys always know where us little guys have our stops – they can “play” with us at will. I try to place my stops far enough away from the “norm” but still the big boys get them. If they decide to go on a “stop run”, there is nothing we can do about it except maybe not use a stop and, like Russian roulette, we will eventually get the bullet anyway.

Unlike Naws, you have been reading and understanding my prior posts # 4280, 4290 and 4312 where I clearly describe USDCAD building a base for support. Unless the current sellers can get below this level (where there are clearly buyers), to find a lower level where others are prepared to sell, this will continue to build a base from which buyers can take the price higher.

The purpose of my post # 4348 was NOT to show the BEEB (in fact I never noticed it as I wasn’t looking for any “short” PASR at this level), but to draw to everyone’s attention to the fact that this support was being TESTED. Therefore, your final paragraph is “dead on”, Danny boy.

“IF” the test of support holds then we should be looking for PA to go long or, for the more aggressive/impatient, place a buy stop above the high of the July 29 bar for a 123 breakout set up.

As with all PASR, any type of bar will not break through established and proven support and resistance. We must wait for a break before acting on them.

Hope this helps, if not, lets have another bash.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,354
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:36pm Jul 31, 2009 12:36pm
Thanks Strat for the confirmation. I'm trying hard to just concentrate on the basics and I can still feel/see the errors in my past. I'm in no rush to enter the live market currently - just happy watching and learning at a pace that suits me and my bank balance (ie not giving the market all my hard earned!)

All this week I've been looking at the dailies and not seeing that much in the way of action to get me long or short. Until these indices tell us they are in for the long / short haul I think Forex just keeps meandering?

I was tempted by the hammer on nzdusd 4 days ago but something didn't feel right. It was a hammer just poking out of consolidation so I guess there were many that were triggered into that trade and it's currently retracing back into that hammer's high! It may yet prove fruitful but I'd say its better to wait for the break and get in on the retrace should there be one.

The charts are staring to add up as the volumes on the indices rallies has been low (summer trading I guess) and with the PA forming as is, we could see a resumption of the bear. This would get usd going higher (as maybe demonstrated by usdcad) and the toppy eur/gbp versus dollar. NFP week next week so no I'd expect no new trends next week. NFP may get the indices moving at weeks end so I'm expecting a quiet week and carnage the week after!
Good weekend all!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,355
  • Jul 31, 2009 4:45pm Jul 31, 2009 4:45pm
Quoting strat;[FONT=Arial
NOTHING in trading is perfect and guaranteed to work every time.[/font].

Maybe not, but that setup yesterday on USDCHF was about as good as it gets.
  • #4,356
  • Jul 31, 2009 4:48pm Jul 31, 2009 4:48pm
EURCAD BOSS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad boss.gif Size: 24 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,357
  • Jul 31, 2009 4:53pm Jul 31, 2009 4:53pm
Quoting Alexandra
Maybe not, but that setup yesterday on USDCHF was about as good as it gets.
I thought long and hard about that last night (well for about 10 seconds anyway) and chose to ignore it because of what EURUSD was doing (or not doing).

Some you win, some you lose - there will be others
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,358
  • Jul 31, 2009 5:01pm Jul 31, 2009 5:01pm
Oh Danny boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling
From glen to glen, and down the mountain side
The summer's gone, and all the flowers are dying
'Tis you, 'tis you must go and I must bide.
But come ye back when summer's in the meadow
Or when the valley's hushed and white with snow
'Tis I'll be here in sunshine or in shadow
Oh Danny boy, oh Danny boy, I love you so.

The floor is yours, Danny boy - let's hear it!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf worker.gif Size: 25 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,359
  • Jul 31, 2009 5:11pm Jul 31, 2009 5:11pm
Quoting strat
I thought long and hard about that last night (well for about 10 seconds anyway) and chose to ignore it because of what EURUSD was doing (or not doing).

Some you win, some you lose - there will be others

You know what - that is a great point. I was looking at that incongruous action in EUR and CHF hard as well. If fact, I thought about posting about the EURUSD and especially the AUDUSD strength which were both well ahead of the USDCHF falloff. It was, indeed, a bit odd. The action in the other pairs kept me in the USDCHF trade, but I admit I did have a passing thought about what the SNB might be doing. We were both in harmony and out of harmony at the same time! Fancy that!

Anyone who held back on the rationale that he/she saw something off in other markets is truly in control. Obviously, there will be another gig to play at any moment, and if one had a well-reasoned thought to hold some powder, hats off to him or her.

Great point Strat!
  • #4,360
  • Edited 5:18pm Jul 31, 2009 5:12pm | Edited 5:18pm
EURUSD BOSS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd boss.gif Size: 25 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
0 traders viewing now