james16 Chart Thread

yes, you're absolutely right, the PB is still valid....I just got spooked and bailed with a small profit (all psychology isn't it?).

GregB

BTW - 1 Question. If a PA presents itself on Friday afternoon at 12 noon EST(or later)...can we still take it, or is it better to wait till Sunday eveneng?

- If you look to the left of your chart, price formed a channel. It is not unusual when price comes back into that area, it forms another channel. Not always, but often enough to catch my attention.Scaling out to the weekly, we are at an area of a channel from Nov 2008. Could not say now where price may go next, but 1.7900 is right below that bar too.

For the sake of safety and sanity, I'd want a really BIG BEOB - and a clean break of the 1.7900. And then you have another channel right below that.

Tough place. Trading short runs into the sideways market.

Good point Jig. My answers below in bold. Edits to original post made for brevity.

I would add that most of the question will be answered by follwoing the thread over a month or two. You'll get a feel for how people trade.

But Jig is right. In case others have the same questions it's probably a good idea to put it all here.

A

Thanks very much indeed. the thread is clearly still very active!

I'm very tempted to join up now to save time going through 2700 pages, though I feel I would be missing something. I've now scanned 500 pages so far, and made some notes.

I am a member of PF and still find myself going back to the public thread often, both to keep current and to read and re read the archives. But yes, in PF material is more condensed and better laid out. And there are videos and webinars that will save you time.

It is very likely I will join up. It's just a matter of when. And then I'll throw myself into it - i do tend to concentrate my efforts on one thing at a time, and get very enthusiastic!

May I put a few queries as they pop into my head?



Are most of you members of the PF too?

That's not my impression. Although many here belong to PF, there are plenty who don't.

How many here are in or near my timezone (UK)?

Do many of you trade the London FX session?

Are many of you full-time traders here?

I am a Londoner. I have another line of work that gives me a lot of time off, so when I have that time off I trade full time. But I don't rely on it for my income. Trading the London session is misleading for this method because it doesn't involve sitting at a computer and watching price unfold. I trade the daily charts, so I check my charts at NY close, and then I demo the 4H throughout the day, which involves a few minutes at each 4H close. The rest of my time (most of it) is research and development.

Is most of the daily trading discussion done on there, rather than here? With the general chit chat, social stuff and comaraderie here?

There is chit chat there too, but the areas are clearly marked. But there isn't so much mutual weighing in on the day's bars. The seniors are always available to give their opinion and will answer any question you post. But there isn't so much "hey guys what do we all think of the GU daily pin?" if you get my meaning. There's more discussion here. And perhaps more focussed learning and Q&A there. That said, it feels like a very strong community and family there. I consider both places "must reads" and check them both during the day. One doesn't replace the other.

I've scanned this thread to around the end of October 2007 - has there been much detailed discussion of the methods since then? I notice James had not been able to contribute a great deal then but said he should be able to later and had great plans for the thread? More of the method etc

James continues to expand the group with new ideas and plans. And yes, there are different methods and styles taught in PF. Knife, BASE, Mike's Intraday, Rac's Voodoo . As for the thread, James has been active throughout and the story, method and discussion have unfolded across all the pages.It's a bit like panning for gold though. You need to sift.

What has happened to some of the old posters? I recognise mbqb11 very well (fabulous posts, Mike). What happened to other good posters, such as The-Wizard, and others?

Many are active on PF, including Seeking Light. Many look in from time to time like Habeeb. And many have their posts archived.

Is the method discussed here mostly trading pins, sometimes inside or outside bars and ocasionally the double high/low with a low/high close at places which coincide with support/resistance levels, fibs, trendlines, Moving averages when the price is moving/swinging around in uncluttered areas?

Yes. And aligning all those into a style that fits your comfort zone.

Currency pairs seem to be drifting sideways on the larger timeframes this year - are you all trading something else till they start moving better?

Once you get good at this you can trade a sideways market for breakeven or profit. There are very few methods you can say that about.

Do you trade mostly currencies, or do you trade other instruments too. It seems that some posters, in the pages I have looked at so far (eg james16 and The_Wizard), have actually or had a preference for trading commodities or other non-fx securities, finding them easier. What are the easiest instruments to make a profit from using this method? And, I suppose, at this time following the crunch?

This works on anything with a chart. My view is the more instruments, the more opportunities, even though each market has its idiosyncracies. I don't believe there is an easier market.

Do you specialise in trading one or two securities, perhaps with multiple strategies, or do yiu trade a larger range of instrument, perhaps looking for ideal setups with a single strategy?

See above

What kind of strategy do you find works for you with the price action discussed here?

Everyone is different. But we mostly start trading daily price action and working down timeframes using the guidelines listed in post one. There is nothing more complicated to it than that. Good bars in good places managed according to SR levels.

Do you all find the higher timeframes (eg 4 and over) less risky and more rewarding than lower ones where the stop losses can be tighter? At what level eg 30 min timeframe do you find the signals less reliable?

I would start higher (daily/weekly). What makes it hard for people to grasp is the fact that price action is the same on all timeframes. It's not about the reliability of the signal, it's about the reliability of the trader. Trading lower timeframes off the bat is a death sentence for most traders because the management needs to be nimble. Higher TFs give you time to learn. Everyone suggests it here, but many still go off and start on the 1H because "surely it's all the same". They usually end up back on the dailies with their tail between their legs.

Is perhaps the emphasis on trading only higher timeframes to get reliable signals a bit overdone if you can trade the most active session eg London, where there may be more ticks in a bar?

I think this is overcomplicating things. You might be thinking "lower timeframes=moresignals=more profit". Let me help you out here. Of my four completed trades on the daily TF this month, two were break evens, two were profitable. I got out early on the profitable ones for a small gain(my mistake...still working on trade management) but they are still running for a combined profit of 12 times risk. That means those two trades on a 1% risk, if simply left alone, would be 12% up by now. Simple and easy. No need to overcomplicate.

Do you use a variety of different timeframes eg TF to set a favoured direction, TF to find support/resistance levels, another for entry, another to manage the trade, another to exit, etc?

Do you trade retracements, reversals etc or range breakouts eg when an fx session opens?

What about other kinds of price action, such as trading 1-2-3 reversals?

Everyone is different. But the majority of us trade good bars off SR levels. I trade each timeframe as I see it. Don't want to overcomplicate things by chopping between them although I have been known to do that. No one here trades fx session open range breakouts that I know of, or 1-2-3 reversals. Some play retracements but it's best to get the basics down first.

I think I noticed in the early posts, that there was an emphasis on waiting for only trading perfect setups... it is said to be very easy to lose money trading so is this still the case with the methods used here?

Not only that. It's the case with all methods and all markets. Be wary of the method that tells you it's difficult or impossible to lose money.

Do yiu find you can trade larger positions on perfect setups, or do minimum amounts on less-than-perfect setups on lower timeframes do the trick too?

I have fixed risk on all setups. Why take the less than perfect ones? (That said, I still get cocky and do it sometimes. And usually end up regretting it). My risk is 1%

Don't you also find that you gain much more practice and experience if you trade on the lower timeframes? Doesn't it take a heck of a long time to gain experience trading perfect setups on the higher timeframes, especially if trading a narrow range of securities eg only currency pairs?

This is a common myth. My experience is that what you will learn is bad habits. Patience is the most important thing to learn and higher timeframes do that. Here's a suggestion. Why not have a ton of instruments open and check them all at daily close? And why not download forextester and get your practice from backtesting years worth of data on daily and weekly timeframes?

Also, thos with low funded a/cs - is it better to id a setup then drop down to a lower timeframe, and trade larger position with a smaller stop loss?

I think this is a recipe for disaster. Your account size should not dictate your trading style. You'll more than likely end up blowing an account.



Better stop there. Full of questions at first, as always, so sorry about that It's just enthusiasm, really. I do tend to ask a lot of questions when I'm keen. Let me know if that's a problem - I like it straight. .. I know when I ask lost of questions in a shop, car showroom etc, for example, the good salesmen treat my questions as signs of enthusiam, buying signals if yoiu like.... I'm very keen on this PA stuff and what I have read so far in the thread, and as i say, i have tried demo trading simple candlestick reversals so I'm sure price-action trading works very well if done properly - I just need to know how, and get some idea and this seems to be the ideal place. Hopefully I'll get right into it, perhaps full time eventually, and hope to then be able to enjoy giving something back.

No problem. Almost everyone had the same thoughts and questions as you. As someone who has tried a lot of stuff out there, this is the only thing I have found that works consistently. Here it is explained clearly without the bellowing ego you so often get on these forums and without the mystical cryptic stuff you get elsewhere too. It's clear, simple and easily laid out.

I wish you well with your journey and I hope this post can be referenced for anyone who has similar questions in the future.

Aaron

I am in trade since yesterday. This trade has potential!

Another trade opened yesterday

maybe i'll get back in on a pull back....

GregB

IMO if you can't take the trade first time let it go! It will be others trades!

Good post Joelcf. Allow me to piggy back on your post. I have backtested and forward tested exit strategies since I started here on this thread. I find there are pros and cons to both having a fixed profit target and to taking profit/moving stops at s/r, round numbers, etc (discretionary approach). I continue to believe that a trader must test both him/herself in order to know which better fits their personality as well as to review the results. As RustyJeff has said or would agree to: there is no point in fighting a type of trading we aren't comfortable with... this is supposed to be fun!

Although there are dozens of posts that talk about exits (see post one for my summary of them), here are two posts that recently talked them:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=38370
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=38381

In my case:
I have made the firm decision to use a more fixed approach to my exits, both in moving stops as well as taking profits. I found when I gave myself more discretion on the exits, I was dragging my thoughts and emotions into the trade. As a new trader, I have made a strong point to be conscious of this and to avoid it. Having a written, tested, thorough fixed exit strategy allows me to let go of the emotional part of exiting a trade, which really is the tough part of managing a trade. Once I pull the trigger to enter, I have made the big decision.
Now, looking forward, I will reach a point when I'm 1) more confident in my abiltity to only trade the best setups (not overtrade), 2) better able to control my emotions and not feel tied to every trade and 3) I have more experience and comfort in identifying potential problem areas. At this point, I will entertain the notion of giving myself more discretion on my trade management.

As always, I'm open to any and all comments Happy weekend to you all. As for me, I'll be on the Mississippi River painting a houseboat in a few short hours.

Josh

Yes, you're correct....not a good idea to chase a trade....it's all in the psychology....a state of mind.

GregB

Anyone in with me on the daily BEOB on the EURGBP from a few days ago? (not *quite* at swing high but a previous pin also indicates downward pressure? - this is probabely my first mistake!! lol)

D(T?)HLC on the weekly for a nice bit of confirmation....

looking to go right down to 0.82!!! been cutting my trades prematurely so far I think so trying for a bit of a longer term trade (possibley a few weeks)

Its currently in a wee bit of drawdown at the moment...

lets see how she plays out... like I said a longer term trade anyhows...

was going to post nearer the time of trade but was busy working

It did do a nice Mike style bounce right of 0.85 though (reminder to self... listen to Mike!!!)

cheers all

Tom

My only concern is that the EURGBP is forming a falling wedge (reversal pattern) and that there is a possible 2 day Bullish PB bouncing right off of a 61.8% swing low with a support level at 0.8479 guarding further downward PA...

We also have confluence with a greater swing low where the current PA is so far respecting (the 61.8% swing low).

We shall see on the close of today what is shakin...

GregB

Thanks Aaron,

Enjoyed reading that

Hey Greg,

What are the MA's and how do you use them ? (If you don't mind explaining))

Thomas

There has been some banter lately about R:R, math, exits, high probability trades, etc... Not that some of that stuff does not matter, but what is more important are the high probability trades and managing them right.

Here is a quick trade to consider. GBPUSD this morning on a 2 bar PB. Top of an established channel. See the bar lows clustered in the little rectangle?

Price hit that area perfectly and reversed hard. If it had gotten thru that area I would have been very surprised. This was a slam dunk, and the kind of stuff I like. High probability for just under 1R.

Say what you want about R:R and fancy mathematical footwork. I'll stick with the simple stuff.

EDIT - what is perhaps the most important thing is to manage your risk. That encompasses everything - from 'will I take this trade' to 'when should I get out', and, 'how will I move my stops'.

Ultimately, you gotta figure this out for yourself. The road to success is your own road.

Hi Delfino,

I am not yet a successful user of James16 PA and I am not very long here, but about your concerns I can share my views.

Your this trade was a less successful one. If the price passed your first tp at +20 pip and then go to the next tp point for say another +30, you will get 0.5 x 20 + 0.5 x (20+30) = +35, then the R:R will be reduced to 2:1.

When evaluate the R:R of a method, you have to collect a number of result instead of a single result.

So, you cannot say you are trading 7:1 in general. After you have a number of trade result, you can be better in evaluating the real R:R.

Mike and James look at win rate much more than R:R. Nevertheless, I would think you need to find a R:R/winrate combination that you are comfortable with and profitable.

Check also this for Mike's opinion:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14914

If I see the pinbar has a 70 pip length and the next stop is 20 pip, I may possibly give up this opportunity. If I see the pinbar has a 70 pip length and the next stop is 10 pip, I may enter after the next stop broken. But this is only for me.

Hope this make sense to you and others.

kk

another couple of good trades on a busy friday morning.

the first was a ct tade on euro which just made it to 2xR.

the next 2 were with trend & tp was 1R. would have liked to have held the 2nd gu one but rules are rules....

have a good weekend all..

Nice

About the first GU one, you considered that with the trend? How are you defining trend, anything different then what ryan has taught? 2nd was cool I thought.
(Also is that a trendline on the EU?)

Also curious, how are you playing exits? 1:2 for each regardless? Moving to cost anywhere in between?

That's a 'clean-take'
I have NEVER traded below 1 hr tf

I considered it the start of a new trend.
I saw a steep rise followed by a less steep fall back to the 50/61 fib area giving a pin on the midle bb. giving a higher low.

of course these are not garenteed but it was worth 2% to me.

Interesting, thanks

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=39111
Anyone who pays attention to Mike's posts should be in from ard 1.0040 .....Already 130+ pips in green and the possibility of a weekly PB closing is very high. We'll see, it's going to be quite interesting (FREE TRADE) if it does.
Now the harder Part is.... where do we aim?? I think we know the first stop...

Thank you James , Mike & all James16 family, again and again. I said it before in PMs and emails, and will always do, however I believe I should say it louder and louder in public. That's the least I can do.