(binned per thread starter's request) For What It's Worth

This reverse triangle formation on the EUR/$ is why I have been avoiding the euro this past week. Looks like a big battle going on between big players, so I will wait for the winner to emerge and then join in. Until then, there are plenty of other currency pairs to trade.

I have been posting my trades on another thread and have really enjoyed exchanging messages with the host of that thread (fti). I am not sure, however, that my posts are really appreciated by the other participants, nor are they sparking any follow-on discussion (I was hoping to hear more about what the other participants were seeing and trading). Therefore, I will start posting some of my morning analysis here, then coming back during the day to post what trades I have entered. This is not a trade calling service, and there will be a delay (measured in minutes) between actual entry and the posts here on FF.

Just a note about today's trades: I was anticipating a dollar bull and traded it today. My focus was on the $/Y, E/Y, $/D, and GBP/$. I traded all of them today.

Focus today is on the E/Y, E/$, and G/$. Yesterday's dollar bull move may be tested today, and we will see if yesterdays move was a correction and old trend continues today, or if the correction is a new dollar bull trend. For all three pairs, I have 4H trend up with retracement underway, and 1H charts awaiting confirmation of trend (currently down on all three, with some level of stalling or retrace going on now). I have targets for moves either way. Watching US equity futures and oil prices (may bring the CAD back to the list) for additional indicators.

Edit: Been out of sync all day and had only a few trades for a few pips. Will be back tomorrow.

Been thinking about my performance today and am very pleased with how I conducted myself. I knew early on that I was having a problem and that I was not quite in sync with the market. I tried to re-sync with the market several times but cound not get there. So, instead of trying to force the issue, I just walked away. I know that success in the forex depends on staying in control of yourself as much as finding trades. Sometimes the best trade is to step away and try again later.

Good trading to everyone today. I am now focused on the following pairs: $/CAD, GBP/$, GBP/J, and E/J. I think the question of the day is: was the action of the past two days just a correction. I am watching the PA in relations to flag formations on these pairs, and reaction around S/R levels. I have targets for moves both north and south. Ready to go, so back later with trades as they develop.

In addition, US equities are up as is oil. Thinking about risk aversion and how it will factor into the market today, too.

Long the E/J at 134.09, targets above and protection at 133.95. Above 134.34, protection will be moved to b/e

Edit: Just moved protection to b/e
Edit: Hit 134.50, and have moved protection to 134.19
Edit: Getting a price break here at about 134.50, moving protection to 134.32

Edit: Square at 134.39 on the sidelines waiting

Looking to re-enter the E/J, and watching the $/CAD for an entry. Waiting.

US equities are soaring, as is oil. Waiting for currencies to jump at some point. Still watching the E/J and $/CAD, and have added GBP/$ to the list.

Long the E/J at 134.54, protecting entry and being careful now. Will protect +10 pips if it hits 134.75
Edit: Flat at 134.54. Watching

Tomorrow (7/31) may be a very important trading day, and one that could shape PA for some time to come. The release of the first print of US 2Q GDP may cause the markets to really react. Expectations are for -1.5, but anything below -1.7 or -1.8 will be big, and anything above -.7 or -.8 will be big. A positive number will cause an explosion. Be careful and be ready.

In addition, we get a GDP release in Canada, so for those CAD traders, another thing to watch.

My expectations are: if contraction is greater that -1.5, should be bearish for the dollar; if contraction is less than -1.5, then bullish for dollar. If positive, I will short the E/Y and not close the order until it hits 1000 pips -- LOL!

Friday 7/31 -- Focus today is on the GBP/$, $/Y, and E/Y. A break south on the CAD will receive more attention. On GBP, 1.6560/70 has formed strong resistance; on $/Y, watching to see if 95.50 provides good support; on E/J, waiting to see if upper trend wall contains or is breached.

Just read that Goldman Sachs expects the yen to move to 105, and sees the euro as overvalued (comment on euro is in line with other comments yesterday that see euro overvalued by up to 15%). Of course, you can't trade any of that, but its kind of interesting. Awaiting first print of Q2 GDP in the US.

OK, will rework charts in about an hour. Given the potential impact of GDP, may just sit back until then.

Could not resist: Long E/J at 135.00, protecting entry. Watching the CAD now, too.

Edit: Will consider exiting this one at 135.30/35 for a quick one. At my trend line now at 135.20'ish

Protecting 135.25 now on the E/J long trade.

Edit: Square at 135.35. May be leaving some on the table but that is ok with +35 pips to start the day.

GDP release presents a negative picture. Although the Q2 number at -1.0 was better than expected, the very big revision to last months number to -6.4 was really bad, and personal consumption was way off. Not a pretty picture. The expectation is for a big revision in the Q2 number next month that will present a bigger bad number.

Long the GBP/$ at 1.6578, protecting 1.6598. Entered very late but it seems to be rolling north.
Edit: Moving stop to 1.6603, setting my limit to 1.6641.
Edit: Moved limit to 1.6653, moved stop to 1.6628

Square on GBP/$ at 166.53.

I am calling it a week. Had pretty good day with the E/J earlier and the GBP/$ a few minutes ago.

GBP was better than the -1.5 at -1.0, but the big revision to last months number indicated a deeper problem than the -1.0 would seem to indicate which had caused the dollar sell off. Bottom line is that unemployment will continue to get worse in the future (remember, a GDP figure of greater than +2.5 is requried to get employment moving, so we need to see GDP above that figure before unemployement numbers to improve).

I posted this on another thread but thought it would be good to comment on it here, too. The USDX has hit a -.618 fib extension (for the third time). While the -.786 and -1.26 fib extentions are valid targets below, it would not be unusual for the dollar to rebound here a little (or a lot). Look for divergence on the Euro, GBP, etc. in anticipation of a reversal. However, the trend is still down, so do not get caught just watching for a reversal. One final comment, notice that the (repeated) hits on the -.618 completes a perfect .618 to -.618 run.

8/3 - Chart work for London is completed. Focus today is on the GBP/$, $/J, and the E/J. Will take a look at the E/$ on a break south. More to follow.

Edit: RE-thinking the E/$ now, watching for a break above 4255 for possible long position. Euro is now breaking the upper trend wall of a bull flag (?).

Short the $/CAD at 1.0750, protecting the entry price now.

Edit: protecting 1.0745, and will take profits at 1.0715.
Edit: Cad is struggling at target price 1.0730, waiting.
Edit: Now protecting at 1.7030, take profits at 1.705
Edit: First target of 0715 has been hit and waiting to see if 0705 can be hit
Edit: Square at 0716