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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #20,521
  • Jul 29, 2009 3:04pm Jul 29, 2009 3:04pm
Hi guys someone please take a look at the USD/CHF 4 hr and 1 hr charts. I think there is a strong round top signal on the 1 hr chart, and a possible retracement on the 4 hr chart to the 365 ema. Any advice......

Thanks,
IntTrader
  • #20,522
  • Jul 29, 2009 3:11pm Jul 29, 2009 3:11pm
Hi Guys please take a look at the above charts....may be worth while.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf 1 hr.gif Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf 4 hr.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #20,523
  • Jul 29, 2009 7:45pm Jul 29, 2009 7:45pm
Hello all,

I wanted to show you guys the counter trend trades that I have taken on today and it is these that I usually take on as I have backtested them and found they have higher probability of all other CT trades. They are also within our rules here which have been explained many times on this forum. So let me talk about the first one I did.

This trade is the USD/CAD which has been in a very nice down trend with price hugging the 8ema and not closing above 21ema for those weeks. For the last few days the 8ema and 21ema have started to come closer and we finally had a close above the 21ema. As our rule states, when price closes beyond the 21ema, it tends to come back to it before going to the 89sma. What I have found out is that, the longer we have been in a trend, the stronger the move might be to the 89sma so since we been in a nice strong trend, i took it on as price closed above 21ema came back to test it and now is moving away from it. I have already closed two lots for 18 and 38 pips and I will let the last one ride.

Also check out the divergence on the MACD another reason that made the trade with more conviction.

[email protected]
s/l @ 1.08200
TP @ 1.11400
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 4h ct.gif Size: 23 KB
Keeping Life Simple
  • #20,524
  • Jul 29, 2009 7:52pm Jul 29, 2009 7:52pm
My other CT trade is on the EUR/USD, again i want to emphasis that when I do CT trades back to the 8ema to fill the gap I always do it after market close as I have found out that is when people close their positions and price retraces.
There was a big gap in the in the 4H and 1H so they bought have a gap created which made me more sure of making the entry. Remember these trades back to the 8ema you are only looking for a couple of pips and not homeruns. I make these CT trades first by just visual and how far price is from the 8ema, this time there was a pretty good gap and a good chance for it get fill so I made a entry on the 1H on the aggressive reversal MACD signal. Nasir is right about just focusing on the TC signals on the 1H but I have been doing CT trades for a while and I am familiar with the rhythm of the market and how it migh react and so I do not recommend this with new traders. So there you go another example of a CT trade for those that might be interesting in added it to their arsenal of tools
Entry @ 1.40394
SL @ 1.39950
1st TP @ 1.40600
2nd TP @ 1.40850
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0729 ct trade.gif Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 0729 ct 1h entry.gif Size: 32 KB
Keeping Life Simple
  • #20,525
  • Jul 29, 2009 8:01pm Jul 29, 2009 8:01pm
Quoting time1300
My other CT trade is on the EUR/USD, again i want to emphasis that when I do CT trades back to the 8ema to fill the gap I always do it after market close as I have found out that is when people close their positions and price retraces....
Just when I finished writing the post, 1st TP reached for 20 pips
stop loss moved to breakeven
Keeping Life Simple
  • #20,526
  • Jul 29, 2009 8:26pm Jul 29, 2009 8:26pm
Hi,

I remember reading somewhere in the forum where EUR/USD and USD/CHF
are negatively correlated. So i think it doesnt make sense to trade both currency at the same time. The risk is double or the gain is double.

I not at my home. I not sure if both are the same spread. If got eur/usd is lower than usd/chf. Then, it be best to trade eur/usd

reg
jin
  • #20,527
  • Jul 29, 2009 8:31pm Jul 29, 2009 8:31pm
thank you for your examples......

i learn something new.....but i didn't have interesting to do the CT trade...

by the way ,may i ask ,did you have do some nice TC trade?

forgive me......
  • #20,528
  • Jul 29, 2009 10:46pm Jul 29, 2009 10:46pm
I just closed my eur/usd CT trade as I do not like to hold a CT trade close to european open.

closed half with 20 pips and the second half with 8 for an average of about 14 pips. Remember we are not in this for a home run but just a few pips back to the 8ema.

SSQ:
I have done many TC trades, if you go back to my posts in the past, there are many examples of TC trades and as soon as I take one on, I will sure post one on here, there are times I cannot post all my trades but I will make sure to put a TC trade next time.
Keeping Life Simple
  • #20,529
  • Jul 29, 2009 11:21pm Jul 29, 2009 11:21pm
Quoting gujjubond
guys need your suggestion..

i am planing for RB trade EU 1hr. candle closing in 30 min. What you think.. Target will be 21 ema on 1hr.

another will be on UChf .. RT.. 4hr closed below current TL. and 1 HR nicely retracing down after huge move up.
Target will be first 8ema then 21ema

please if yo guys can me yur opinion.

shabbir

I am in ..
USDCHF

E- 1.0889
SL - 1.0940
1st TP - 1.0867
2nd TP- 1.0825

once 1st TP Hits then 2nd will be breakeven..

good luck to me.
Well my First TP Hits at 20 pips and remain left with BE. let see what happens. 8ema hasnt catch up yet.
  • #20,530
  • Edited 3:51am Jul 30, 2009 3:26am | Edited 3:51am
Hi all.


I'm just curious. Did you ever test MACD signals on 1h with MACD set to 20, 52, 1? They look the same as on 5, 13, 1 on on 4h but probably signal comes little bit earlier.
In 1h timeframe all our candles should look the same, regardless of gmt. But is it worth-while? No time to backtest it yet.

Just curious. I had no time to search whole thread for the answer yet, so don't be mad at me please

btw, this is probably the most interesting thread I've ever read.
Thanks to Phillip and all You guys.

ps. this system is beautiful. The more I read, the more I know about forex as a whole, not only in terms of this 4h MACD, and it's so intuitive and clear when to open and where to colese position... I'm impressed.
  • #20,531
  • Jul 30, 2009 3:52am Jul 30, 2009 3:52am
Quoting nasir.khan
FF started a new forum i.e Commercial forum i think now Philip could come back.

Quoting xeneric

We should all email Phil and ask him to come back. Phil did say a few weeks ago in the weekly anticipation that he wanted to hear from us so we should inundate him with lots of emails asking him to come back.

I wrote an email asking Phil to come back and he said that he was just waiting for the rules to be finalised for the commercial section which may take a month or so.

Hurrah!!! Looking forwards to his great posts after the new rules are released.
  • #20,532
  • Jul 30, 2009 3:54am Jul 30, 2009 3:54am
Nassir, you have been doing a great job on this thread answering questions.
  • #20,533
  • Jul 30, 2009 3:57am Jul 30, 2009 3:57am
Quoting fjgren
Hi all.


Hi fjgren,

Welcome to the thread. Nice to have you on board.
  • #20,534
  • Jul 30, 2009 5:46am Jul 30, 2009 5:46am
Quoting fjgren
Hi all.


I'm just curious. Did you ever test MACD signals on 1h with MACD set to 20, 52, 1? They look the same as on 5, 13, 1 on on 4h but probably signal comes little bit earlier.
In 1h timeframe all our candles should look the same, regardless of gmt. But is it worth-while? No time to backtest it yet.

Just curious. I had no time to search whole thread for the answer yet, so don't be mad at me please

btw, this is probably the most interesting thread I've ever read.
Thanks to Phillip and all You guys.

ps. this system is beautiful....
Now don't fall in this cycle bro trying different setting's on macd and moving averages to find the magic number you will end up no where. If you change the macd settings you feel like to see that it gives signal when the defualt setting's not or bit earlier but at the same time it will give you false signals and do not give signals at time's when there is actually a trade on the default indicator.

Of course on 1h signals will come earliar then 4h but they would also be less accurate then 4h if you want to trade 1h it's okay but first develop the feel for the system trade on 4h for atleast 3-4 months.

So intead of making those mistakes we have made and in the end coming to the basics again just skip some level's and Learn Price Acion and Market Rythm how it behaves around moving averages know the S/R levels and
remember MACD is the last thing you need to look at to confirm the entry.
  • #20,535
  • Jul 30, 2009 5:51am Jul 30, 2009 5:51am
Quoting xeneric
Nassir, you have been doing a great job on this thread answering questions.
Thanks Xeneric.
  • #20,536
  • Jul 30, 2009 6:20am Jul 30, 2009 6:20am
Quoting nasir.khan
Now don't fall in this cycle bro trying different setting's on macd and moving averages to find the magic number you will end up no where. If you change the macd settings you feel like to see that it gives signal when the defualt setting's not or bit earliar but at the...

Point.

how about possible: "move through zero and back" on gbpusd in few hours?
1. big picture of gbpusd + fibbo fan
2. possible macd and price movement
why?:
I don't think proce have potential to go higher; long distance to 8 and 21 ema
waiting for the signal fo course
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd1.png Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd3.png Size: 57 KB
  • #20,537
  • Jul 30, 2009 7:00am Jul 30, 2009 7:00am
Quoting fjgren
Point.

how about possible: "move through zero and back" on gbpusd in few hours?
1. big picture of gbpusd + fibbo fan
2. possible macd and price movement
why?:
I don't think proce have potential to go higher; long distance to 8 and 21 ema
waiting for the signal fo course
Now at 4H at close of this bar there will be a pin bar ( if price doesn't spoiles it) now that's where reading the basic stuff comes in here is a picture of part of pdf in which philip told about candlestick patterns.

Now here we should wait for another 4 hour for a ZB.

or if you look at 1H it's a RB so if you want to take the trade set 1st tp at 8 ema, 2nd at 21 ema and let the rest ride because you are anticipating a ZB in 4H.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 4h.gif Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 1h.gif Size: 40 KB
Attached Image
  • #20,538
  • Edited 8:01am Jul 30, 2009 7:54am | Edited 8:01am
Quoting nasir.khan
now that's where reading the basic stuff comes in here is a picture of part of pdf in which philip told about candlestick patterns.
Thanks for answer.
lol... I opened this file today at noon (gmt+1) and then focused on mt4 graphs live cause it was near to 4h candle close.

I decided to practice while I'm reading whole stuff including forum - so I'm doing it. Connection theory with practice and participant's of this thread experience, is what I whant to do.
So don't get me wrong. I'm reading everything possible about 4h MACD strategy but while I'm doing it, i want to practice whole knowledge now so it can settle in my mind for good.
  • #20,539
  • Jul 30, 2009 10:04am Jul 30, 2009 10:04am
I request your view on this trade..

USDCAD .. Crossing Zero so it's TC downward.

E-1.0819
SL- 1.0879
1st TP-1.0760
2nd TP- according to movement ..

AUDUSD - Crossing Zero and TC Upward

E-0.8262
1st - 0.8323
SL-0.8195

2nd TP- According to movement

everything will be set to BE at +30.

Please let me know your view on it. is this valid trade ?

shabbir
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd july30.gif Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad july30.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #20,540
  • Jul 30, 2009 10:58am Jul 30, 2009 10:58am
hi gujj,

I still learning, i wouldnt trade both. Both maybe going to show the end of their run according to the market rythm.

Why not take a look at this word file. Have you read it. Its not done by me. I think its by one of the pioneers. Take a look. I got a better understanding level from this word file. I think it explain quite well.

I am very slow learner. It takes me 6 months to understand what phillip actually mean when he said in one of his mp3. Its all about the market rhythm.

Pls correct me if wrong. i also like to hear more view.

By the way, where do you get the FF calender indicator on your mt4?

reg
jin
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Market Rhythm 4 Hour Strategy.doc   40 KB | 1,253 downloads
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