james16 Chart Thread | Page 1963 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #39,241
  • Jul 29, 2009 9:24am Jul 29, 2009 9:24am
Quoting kk007
Supremechaos,

Thanks for reply again.
Do you think the down trend is strong, as shown on the chart?

If I have to consider PPZ of that strength (in relation to the length of the pinbar) as a stop, I would have to have profit target of very small each time. This will make my trading risk very high, and perhaps it may be better to have an occasional failed pinbar instead. I can see the failure rate of a pinbar of such quality is low.

sorry it is eur/usd.

cheers,

kk
yes KK,

personally I would have liked it to kiss 1.419, but it didn't which is fine, because again we are not expecting these to work out just like we want them to 100% of the times.

Moving on...is what I would be doing if I were you.

Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #39,242
  • Jul 29, 2009 9:24am Jul 29, 2009 9:24am
Jigsaw,
how large are your home monitors mentioned somewhere here?
Thanks
  • #39,243
  • Jul 29, 2009 9:35am Jul 29, 2009 9:35am
Kissing the next major support zone,

Through this and 1.4's next...



Ghous.
Attached Image
I believe . . .
  • #39,244
  • Jul 29, 2009 9:48am Jul 29, 2009 9:48am
Quoting scott087
Just an update to the EUR/AUD Daily trade. I moved my SL to BE as planned at 1.7770 (white line). I also took partial profit at round number 1.7700 as it looks like there is a ppz sitting there on the daily. I'm in risk free and I'm willing to see if this can break below 1.77.

Nice trade everyone.

-Scott
Hi guys,

I just wanted to update the final results for the EUR/AUD daily short trade from 7/13. This is by far the longest trade I have held.

In the previous post I took profit at 1.77.

What I did after this was trail my stop up, and I waited for the reaction at 1.75 round number and ppz. I took some profit at this ppz, and after the nice break through it and seeing 1.75 act as new resistance, I set my final TP at 1.72.

I set something like a 200 pip trailing stop in case I am not home I want to be able to catch a big move and lock profit. I came home and saw my trailing stop moved up and stopped me out, but the market didn't move anywhere near 200 pips from when I set the trailing stop.

It turns out that I had the broker's audit team check it out, and they made a mistake. They actually admitted to their mistake and agreed that I should not have been stopped out. By the time they figured this out, 1.72 was hit and they decided since I had a limit in place they would give me an adjustment of what my position would have been worth if it were still open and hit 1.72.

Although I'm out of this trade, it seems like the old support at 1.73 (grey line) is now acting as new resistance. I wouldn't be suprised to see a break lower from here.

Scott
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 07.13.09_EURAUD_-_Results.jpg Size: 94 KB
  • #39,245
  • Jul 29, 2009 9:51am Jul 29, 2009 9:51am
ghous,
are u willing to let your trade breathe & go sub-1.40? where are u hiding your stops?
it may have extra gas to reach 1.38 - 1.3870: massive bear divergence on xxx/$ majors finally unwinding + USDX (Dollar index) finally rebounding from lows.

i'm , but im not in this though. (i'll try to sneak in with a 'late' entry if opportunity presents itself; thank God, i don't chase trades anymore)
like my idol recently said: "many are waiting, few will be served."
  • #39,246
  • Jul 29, 2009 9:55am Jul 29, 2009 9:55am
Thanks ghous,

Let me share some maths that I know.

------------------------------------------

I have a way to calculate cross timeframe target for the same trading method.

If you use the method to trade D1 and on average you have a target of 100 pip, what would you expect if you trade H1 or M5 with exactly the same methods.

Since there is 24 hours a day, for a D1 chart the pip volatility is about sqrt(24) times that on a H1 chart. So, you could expect a target of about 100/sqrt(24) i.e. ~ 20 pip

If you go down to a M5 chart, the target should be around 6 pip, with the same trading method.

With the effect of spread, such method (without modification) may probably not worth using in M5 chart.

(Calculation is based on Wiener Processes assumption)


Quoting ghous
Hi Kk007,

Chaos made some valid points,

Abt the Usd/Chf...

Here's what I think:

Why do you think James wants you to stick to higher time frames first?
Why do you think Ryan is comfortable with having 15 pips 20 pip take profit levels when he could hold on to some of those "with the trend" 5 min setups for hundreds of pips.

Yes the pin bars on 1H still do what they are known for doing on the higher time frames but there is a BIG difference,

Notice how the same move on daily could have yielded some 40-50 points on a normal pair and some...
  • #39,247
  • Jul 29, 2009 9:56am Jul 29, 2009 9:56am
When evaluating a profit target, we need to compare it with the risk amount. Generally, people use Risk:Reward ratio. It is a risky trading, if the Risk:Reward ratio of a trade is high.

If Risk:Reward ratio is 2:1 in your method, you need to win 66.7% to breakeven. If Risk:Reward ratio is 3:1 in your method, you need to win 75% to breakeven.

The longer is a pinbar, the higher is the risk is, if your profit target is only one third of the length of the pinbar, you have to make sure you have a higher than 75% winning rate.

Of course, if you are almost certain you are going to win, you may take a very high Risk:Reward trade.
  • #39,248
  • Jul 29, 2009 9:59am Jul 29, 2009 9:59am
scott087,
very nice! 16 days long, huh. wow..
btw, live trade--- which broker?
Congratulations!


PS. seems like the motto for this trade was... trail & trail until 'it' (the trail. stop) dies.
  • #39,249
  • Jul 29, 2009 10:13am Jul 29, 2009 10:13am
Quoting Jigsaw
BUOBs and BEOBs at confluence.

Well it depends, say for the EURUSD I have a SL of 9 and a TP of 40. I risk .5% a trade.

Heres the surf from the EURUSD for the last two days.
Hi Jigsaw, looking at those charts, can you explain if you enter on break of the BUOB/BEOB as the loses and wins all seem to have a slight retrace and I am struggling to see why one is a win and one is a loss?

The only thing I can think is if your entry varied and based of 0.5% then thats why you were stopped?

cheers
verno
  • #39,250
  • Jul 29, 2009 10:13am Jul 29, 2009 10:13am
Quoting supremeChaos
scott087,
very nice! 16 days long, huh. wow..
btw, live trade--- which broker?
Congratulations!


PS. seems like the motto for this trade was... trail & trail until 'it' (the trail. stop) dies.
It was live on fxcm. A lot of people complain about them but I've had no issues with them. Their audit team concluded that "an unknown IP address modified your trailing stop value, causing it to move up before it should have" so they gave me the credit. I was actually really surprised they admitted to their mistake on this one. I'm going to change my account passwords just to be safe.

Scott
  • #39,251
  • Jul 29, 2009 10:14am Jul 29, 2009 10:14am
Quoting supremeChaos
ghous,
are u willing to let your trade breathe & go sub-1.40? where are u hiding your stops?
it may have extra gas to reach 1.38 - 1.3870: massive bear divergence on xxx/$ majors finally unwinding + USDX (Dollar index) finally rebounding from lows.

i'm , but im not in this though. (i'll try to sneak in with a 'late' entry if opportunity presents itself; thank God, i don't chase trades anymore)
like my idol [url="http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2891751&postcount=38295"]recently...
lol sure.

I usually hide my stops behind pull backs and trail them along manually as the trend progresses and pull backs present themselves.

BTW Eu did present an opp on the daily to go short later after the 4H pin bar...(very nearly a good looking DBHLC)

Ghous.
Attached Image
I believe . . .
  • #39,252
  • Jul 29, 2009 10:20am Jul 29, 2009 10:20am
Quoting kk007
Thanks ghous,

Let me share some maths that I know.

------------------------------------------

I have a way to calculate cross timeframe target for the same trading method.

If you use the method to trade D1 and on average you have a target of 100 pip, what would you expect if you trade H1 or M5 with exactly the same methods.

Since there is 24 hours a day, for a D1 chart the pip volatility is about sqrt(24) times that on a H1 chart. So, you could expect a target of about 100/sqrt(24) i.e. ~ 20 pip

If you go down to a M5 chart, the target...
I thought I was good at math, and you pricked the hallucination Kk



I seriously need to take my math classes more gravity.

Not sure how you arrived at the 100 pip on daily - 20 pip on 1H thing, but I was pointing out at something obvious without deriving it from a mathematical aspect.

Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #39,253
  • Jul 29, 2009 10:29am Jul 29, 2009 10:29am
This is my trade on USDCHF weekly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_w1.png Size: 35 KB
  • #39,254
  • Jul 29, 2009 10:45am Jul 29, 2009 10:45am
Quoting ghous
I thought I was good at math, and you pricked the hallucination Kk



I seriously need to take my math classes more gravity.

Not sure how you arrived at the 100 pip on daily - 20 pip on 1H thing, but I was pointing out at something obvious without deriving it from a mathematical aspect.

Ghous.

Yeah Math is all fine and good. It makes us understand the basics. Ok so if I go for small wins, and my losses are larger then my wins, I need a high win rate, etc.

But when it comes down to it, the trader has a sound method that makes money or doesn't. A high win rate method won't work for a trader that fails to achieve a high win rate. You only get to know yourself and your trading after you make a large amount of trades.

And yes it is achievable to have winrates of 90% plus with this material. It is also possible to have winrates of 30% and make money. No one right way. Making money is the right way(all things such as MM taken into account of course!).

Mike
  • #39,255
  • Jul 29, 2009 10:45am Jul 29, 2009 10:45am
Wow... How can you do this?

There are so many possible PPZ obstacles in the middle. How did you break them all???

Also, the pinbar you used, also have the nose outside the left eye a bit.. haha!

How did you make them allow you taking profit???

haha... you must teach me all these..



Quoting ghous
Kissing the next major support zone,

Through this and 1.4's next...



Ghous.
Attached Image
  • #39,256
  • Jul 29, 2009 10:50am Jul 29, 2009 10:50am
Really true, Mike.

When I look at the historical chart (or observe the price movement and setup realtime) the success rate is very high. But when I actually demo trading it, my success rate is hehehe...

Thanks.


Quoting mbqb11
Yeah Math is all fine and good. It makes us understand the basics. Ok so if I go for small wins, and my losses are larger then my wins, I need a high win rate, etc.

But when it comes down to it, the trader has a sound method that makes money or doesn't. A high win rate method won't work for a trader that fails to achieve a high win rate. You only get to know yourself and your trading after you make a large amount of trades.

And yes it is achievable to have winrates of 90% plus with this material. It is also possible to have winrates of 30%...
  • #39,257
  • Jul 29, 2009 10:53am Jul 29, 2009 10:53am
Quoting kk007
Really true, Mike.

When I look at the historical chart (or observe the price movement and setup realtime) the success rate is very high. But when I actually demo trading it, my success rate is hehehe...

Thanks.
Only with time and experience, and even then the reality is it isn't guaranteed or even close that you someone will be successful. But you have to keep at it, and play of your strengths, and try to find your weaknesses or where you are going wrong. Usually some are bad habits that can be eliminated, that usually gets us to b/e traders.

Mike
  • #39,258
  • Jul 29, 2009 10:54am Jul 29, 2009 10:54am
Quoting mbqb11
And yes it is achievable to have winrates of 90% plus with this material. It is also possible to have winrates of 30% and make money. No one right way. Making money is the right way(all things such as MM taken into account of course!).

Mike
last 11 trades and no losses (counting 2 BE here as winners if you like) - so high percentage winning rates are possible with J16 stuff!!!

lets hope it continues!!

On a side note I am feeling fear of loosing (as we all do) this must be harder for the average J16 trader to cope with as he doesn't have as much practice as with other trading methods!! - victims of our (J16 + crew) own success?

ummm I'll mull that one over...

Tom
  • #39,259
  • Jul 29, 2009 11:03am Jul 29, 2009 11:03am
Quoting fat_tom
last 11 trades and no losses (counting 2 BE here as winners if you like) - so high percentage winning rates are possible with J16 stuff!!!

lets hope it continues!!

On a side note I am feeling fear of loosing (as we all do) this must be harder for the average J16 trader to cope with as he doesn't have as much practice as with other trading methods!! - victims of our (J16 + crew) own success?

ummm I'll mull over that one...

Tom
That is terrific Tom! You should be extremely proud of that accomplishment alone. Not easy to get too.

We have to always remember that it isn't about 50% a month BS. It is about consistency and that consistent avg % gain can really grow an account along with compounding and adding. I think if many people reading this can switch out of the "now now now" mentality and shift to the bigger picture their trading will improve greatly b/c their patience and discipline will grow.

Yes Tom, you will have a loss sometime. It is part of what I was speaking about the other day. Even the profitable trader(newly profitable), has hurdles. How do they react at their first loss? First losing month? etc. Those are the trying times that are the most crucial. If you all read what Jeff posted recently about when he takes a loss or doesn't feel right he doesn't even trade. That is nearly impossible for most people, to say you know what forget it. I will wait till my mind is right. This might sound like voodoo to some people, b/c all our lives things are much more structured then that.

Tom try to picture how you will handle the loss. What emotions might come up. Try dealing with them now. Some will say, oh you can't picture yourself losing or you will. BS. You will take a loss. And if you don't deal wtih the emotions head on, you will sit at your desk with a sour stomach and a feeling that will probably spill over to your next set of trades leaving you with the feeling you are back to where you started. Then as time goes along and you see you can consistently do this, and power through the losses, they become less hard to handle. But I don't know anyone who doesn't get a little bothered by something. We are Human trading discretionary methods.

Mike
  • #39,260
  • Jul 29, 2009 11:13am Jul 29, 2009 11:13am
Mike,

Thanks for this - I do picture myself loosing and yep it does bother me but like you say we're all human.... Hopefully I will be able to cope with this when the time comes... (Although going on recent PA - or lack of it on the dailys It might be sometime before I enter another trade to give me the oppertunity of loosing!! LOL)

Thanks again your posts always give us newbies a serious insight to trading!

Tom
38 traders viewing now