Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

I was on the EUR/USD thread the other day and was shocked at what i saw some people posting. Some of the posts made me laugh so much.

Z

Back to business. GU on daily tells me to wait and be patient but the weekly looks too obvious (unsustainable). All things still possible?

Z

Is EU showing it's hand in advance?!

Z

So I decided last night to get up early this morning, 5am my time, to catch NY open and have a bash at M15 trading on AUDUSD. Bloody hell, even the sun is not up yet - am I the only idiot who is up in my neighbourhood?

I selected AUDUSD because it seemed to be leading other pairs and because it was at a Daily double top. As usual when I try to foretell the future it's wrong as the JPY pairs took over leadership.

First of all, 5am is not a good time for me - I haven't had all my beauty sleep or a shower and I look like shit warmed up. Added to that the wheels between my ears seem reluctant to move.

I pull up the M15 chart and see the London boys have put in the top and taken it down below the previous swing low - a good sign it wants to go lower I try telling the porridge that is an excuse for my brain at this ungodly hour.

My LT and ST cycles topped out with the London boys so I feel very confident a move lower is in the offing.

5:45am (ugh) puts in the 4th candle at 0.8296 so I enter my sell order below there and go for a pee. As if by magic I get filled but the damn candle can't make up its mind as it oscillates up and down. This triggers the wheels between my ears to start working and the little man starts talking to me but I have him in check as I have a PLAN.

So an hour after watching, I'm finally in a trade. Then after an hour and a half, I'm in the red! "It's not supposed to be like this", the little man tells me so I tell him to go forth and multiply!

Two hours later and we are in the black - what do you say to that little man? (he's nowhere to be seen!). Two and three quarter hours later (sigh) and there is a feeble excuse of a bond shooting star as the buyers get repelled so I enter another sell order and move to BE on the first.

Three hours later and I get filled on my second short. I'm really fed up now and my mind is wondering all over the place - I even take another look at that photo I was patiently watching and waiting - then I start thinking of other things - then I......., no, better not go there - not even for me!

I can't believe I have sat for over 3 hours staring at red and blue boxes moving up and down - how sick is that? I lock in my second sell order profit and go and make my breakfast shake and then go onto the ESPN Soccernet and BBC Sports websites to get updated on who is moving where in football.

Before I know it, another three quarters of an hour has gone (see how quick time goes when you are doing something of interest?) and I come back to find both my LT and ST cycles have bottomed and there are two blue boxes. "Don't even think about it", I tell the little man who was just about to open his big gob! I missed the bottom reading about Kolo Toure's move from the Arse men to Man City!

I was just about to close both orders when I saw price stalling and lo and behold it closes on a hanging man type doji. Price starts falling so I put in a TP for both at the previous low and go and make a cup of tea. Then I take a peek in the bedroom and see this beautiful, naked, virile bronzed goddess calling my name and then my elbow falls off the kitchen table when I wake up!

5 hours later and I'm out, thank goodness!

A double pips trade in 5 hours and I'm well and truly mentally knackered. I feel like I've been up all night.

So I get out my trusty abacus and work out that I'm now on a very low ROI compared to my Daily trading. I also work out that in 5 hours, I could have done 2 months analysis of my daily pairs for 100% less stress and anguish.

There is no way I could do this for 5 days a week bearing in mind that this was a good day with decent volatility. I take my hat off (what hat, you don't wear a hat) to those guys who can sit and stare at the one eyed monster for a few measly weasly pips - Gud on yer, I say!

Right on ZZ Top!

The Worker cycles are finally lining up with the BOSS cycles so we should be in for some fun and games and maybe a few piparoonis - BUT best to wait while it all clicks in to place - we don't want to be taken to the cleaners by the big boys if they decide to play their games.

It won't get my attention until I see a STRONG close below that magic 1.4160 support.

Interesting that "THEY" are calling for higher prices - same as with GBPUSD, my EURUSD Worker cycles are just beginning to come in line with their BOSS cycles!

Hey, Swagman, it can't be Nicola - she's a blonde!

Thanks Strat.

Just to add to the laughs. The following two posts made me laugh so much, i wonder what happened to the guy???

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=343

and

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=344

Z

Unbelievable! He could have saved himself the torture and just wired me the money in his account - it would have been less painful. His last post was March 03, 09 - maybe that's when he found out no-one had an accurate crystal ball.

So does today's bar count as a DBHLC for euryen? Lower high too just above the 50% fib from the monthly line chart H-L. Monthly bar currently a hanging man candle - few days to month close could point to lower prices? I have a pending order below the low of the last hammer and 20ema as I was long (on demo) on the break of the last high on the H4 chart back on 9 Jul.

On my data, there is a 12 pip difference so not a DBHLC BUT it is a BEEB so you need to be out of your long trade. With such a long candle and especially the tail bouncing off the 132.80 support, I'm inclined to expect an IB next so maybe you can get in at a discount later.

AUDCAD
Thrown out a nice shooting star but don’t think this has much further to go – maybe only to 0.8800ish

AUDJPY
Today’s OB shows the buyers still have some strength. May make another high before the sellers gain control

AUDUSD
The long tail stops this being a nice shooting star. Maybe a bit more topping before the sellers get going.

CADJPY
She firmly rejected a push beyond psycho 86.00 - Maybe a bit more topping before the sellers get going.

CHFJPY
Nice BEEB to maybe take us to 84.50

EURAUD
Looks to be trying to put in a bottom

EURCAD
Still going through its bottoming process

GBPAUD
Looks to be trying to put in a bottom

NZDJPY
Another OB telling us the top is being difficult

NZDUSD
Hanging on to her top for all she is worth

USDCAD
Still going through its bottoming process

USDJPY
Alexandra – what the hell is going on?

Sometimes the commodities can give a clue as to direction and certainly the strength of the dollar and they are very correlated at the moment. Like the AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD the dollar index broke support overnight and then rallied to finish as a daily bullish engulfing.
Here is Crude, Gold, Silver and the dollar index.
If the dollar rally continues, which the currencies say it might, then I like these trades a lot.

Strat,

Too funny! Man's best invention - fire; man's worst iinvention - the short term chart.

They both will burn you up.

Strat,

LOL - Thanks for the floor. Always nice to get an easy question (not!).

I see 93.50 as the short term key to the USDJPY outlook and will be long (I got you babe!) above that level. Given that I have an underlying bullish funnymental view, I would like to see 94.50 regained and taken out. We should see that test again today. The bears had their chance after the close of the first week in July. One could argue for longs until that level is taken out, but, for practical purposes, I see a failure to hold 93.50 as grounds to re-evaluate. Failure to hold 94.50 will make me nervous.

Overall it's not rocket science - I think risk aversion is over...we've had a 62 fibo since the ?bottom....and I am long.

Well the BOSS cycles have turned up so all we need now is the Worker down cycles to bottom and we are off to the races again - just not sure whether they will bottom at 93.50 or 92.30; think 93.50 has the higher probability but then I'm usually no better than a coin toss.

Thanks Strat - I'm confused with engulfing bars? OBs and IBs are easy but does an engulfing bar only pertain to the candle body engulfing the previous candle body and not the wicks?
In OHLC bars I would guess it means the bar open and close is outside the previous bar's open and close - wicks being irrelevant?

BTW this book I'm reading (Price action bar by bar - by Al Brooks) is essential reading for PASR traders. Although all his charts and write ups concern the 5M chart the principals are the same. It's still al about patience and waiting for confirmation. Every bar on the chart tells a story - there are 2 types of bar - trend bars and dojis - that's it. When explained it's quite simple. But even the best 5m traders wait for confirmation and always look for fake outs.

Barb Wire is the worst pattern - where you get a doji one way then another in the opposite direction then a 3rd. They usually form near the 20ema and give little clue to direction. The first BO from this range is usually a fake but these guys on the 5m use 1pip below above bars as entries etc. The 20ema is still important and there are rules like never short when the PA had been above the MA all session and vice versa.

It's still quite humbling to see that even he waits for BOs, looks for the poss fake and waits to re-enter on the pullback from the BO. He rubbishes Fibs as he reckons most PA will always form around one of the fib numbers and therefore is pretty meaningless (on the 5m charts) as its subjective as to where people plot their fibs from and too.

I would NEVER trade the 5m but he does say it acts as a valuable training ground on demo as the bar-turnover is quicker - you get many cycles on the 5m charts that would take months to play out on the daily.

There is a section on daily and monthly charts but I've not got that far yet - I'll keep you posted!! It's pretty deep and each section is explained bar by bar which takes a lot of concentration and page turning all the time, matching the words with the charts. But in the long run I'm hoping it's worth it!!

Hi Grimweasel,

Outside bars and Inside bars are terms used when trading using bar charts. For an outside bars the whole candle (high-low) has to engulf the previous candles high and low. Ideally you want to see these at swing low and swing highs. For candlestick charting, it is only the real body that has to engulf the previous bar's real body.

Inside bars (another term used when trading using bar charts) means that the whole of the current bar (high-low) has to be within the previous candle's high and low. For candlestick charting however, only the real body needs to be within the previous candles real body to pass as an inside candle.

Hope this helps?

Z

Thanks Zuret,

I was familiar with minor specifics but I have always thought it was best to trade an IB for example, that was an IB on both the OHLC and Candle charts. There could be times that you have an IB candle that is not an IB on the OHLC because the wicks are outside the previous bar?

I know this seems anal but I guess it's all down to interpretation. I prefer to stack the odds more in my favour and would try to trade a signal that is valid in both chart types; after all they are both showing exactly the same information, just graphically different!

Thanks again - so what's the true candle traders definition of a BEEB and BUEB? I thought they were the same as OBs??

I trade candles and IB's and I disagree with Zurets definition of an inside bar using candles ...
If either of the wicks are outside the previous bar then it is not an inside bar. A true inside bar is the same on a candle and on a OHLC bar. You can have equal bottoms or tops and be an IB ...