Platypus journal | Page 4 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Another Trading Journal - Yuhu's Journal 17 replies

Twitch Journal - Live Journal 4 replies

My Personal journal up 18% in 2 months going to start a journal 8 replies

Newbie Factory Journal 12 replies

Trading Diary/Journal 5 replies

Attachments: Platypus journal
Exit Attachments

Platypus journal

  • #61
  • Jul 27, 2009 4:27pm Jul 27, 2009 4:27pm
Hi Plat,

Do you trade the S&P futures?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #62
  • Jul 27, 2009 4:46pm Jul 27, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting The Fool
Hi Plat,

Do you trade the S&P futures?
No Fool....

I trade exclusively EUR/USD on the 4 hour timeframe. But I watch a bunch of other things including other forex pairs.

I believe it will be more accurate to say that I trade the E/U chart because the indicators and patterns I follow works in any chart so if in the future I decide to trade something else I will be right at home
  • #63
  • Jul 27, 2009 4:52pm Jul 27, 2009 4:52pm
Ok thats the trade I'm currently in.

I entered right on the break of the bar because is the bottom of the channel, bar formation etc etc. I was almoust knocked out of the trade but the subsequent small pin bar keept me in. I'm adding one more position on the double bottom if the double bottom is violated my trade will turn invalid and I will close bouth positions.

I'm trading on 15 and 30 minutes for naw because the 4 hours is untradeble at the moment. I reduced my lot sizes accordly because of the added risk in trading lower time frames. My SL in case of a spike down is 1.42
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.jpg Size: 109 KB
  • #64
  • Jul 27, 2009 5:52pm Jul 27, 2009 5:52pm
ok...closing down my 2 positions one for +20 the other -2, the trade is not going the way i though and on plus i'm flying by instruments since the 4 hour is choppy.

catch you guys in London....
  • #65
  • Jul 28, 2009 6:19am Jul 28, 2009 6:19am
Not a very busy London section for me so far .

All I was able to make was 17 pips on the break of the berish inside bar (30min chart). I was hoping for more pips in this move since we had a new high but as soon as the move started to get choppy I decided to get out. Since looks like China is buying euros I think we may hit a new high before any descent retracement
  • #66
  • Jul 28, 2009 7:02am Jul 28, 2009 7:02am
Well well well... New York managed to make the platypus feel like a fool. Especialy because as I was closing my position for dinkye 17 pips my 4 hour chart was giving me a nice short signal .

Since I lost the move anyways let me tune on CNBC and give Becky Quick a quick check ...she is not as cute as Erin but......
  • #67
  • Jul 28, 2009 7:51am Jul 28, 2009 7:51am
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32183731

...... !

Oh boy saturday night live can't even get close to the kind of laugh CNBC can produce on me.

So this clowns really believe that the oil spike was really an effect of demand ? It looks like these idiots really believe in their own news ...unreal!

Well anyways apart from the "LA LA LAND" stuff the article says that the CFTC is taking mesures so it does not happens again.

Latelly we are seeing more and more regulations on markets, and as a Forex trader I'm really interested in this trend because if this people start to get really HYPER Forex can loose its over the counter status and get somehow centralised .

I'm not affraid of this kind of changes ( anyways I have no choice) I'm just trying to figure out if we traders will be benefited or screwed by it.
  • #68
  • Jul 28, 2009 9:16am Jul 28, 2009 9:16am
Quoting Platypus
I'm not affraid of this kind of changes ( anyways I have no choice) I'm just trying to figure out if we traders will be benefited or screwed by it.
Hi Plat,

I guess my understanding of the forex spot market is still basic, but wasn't it opened up to the retail speculator ("investor") to facilitate the operation of the banks, an additional provision of liquidity? If forex market was centralized, like futures - wouldn't the big banks get out of the picture & trade amongst themselves, like they used to? And liquidity would dry up? Or, how do you think it would go down?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #69
  • Jul 28, 2009 1:26pm Jul 28, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting The Fool
Hi Plat,

I guess my understanding of the forex spot market is still basic, but wasn't it opened up to the retail speculator ("investor") to facilitate the operation of the banks, an additional provision of liquidity? If forex market was centralized, like futures - wouldn't the big banks get out of the picture & trade amongst themselves, like they used to? And liquidity would dry up? Or, how do you think it would go down?
Interbank transactions or Forex as we know never was and never will be open to retail traders. Thats why you need a market maker (broker) and a market maker will keep their traders inside their "market" for as long as they can, only going tap liquidity outside in extreme cases so their liquidity does not get screwed ( what rarely happens). So as long as we do participate providing a little volume to the market via our brokers the banks dont really need us so i don't think we "facilitate" their lifes in any way.

Some people get this thing wrong...a bank is a bank, their business in Forex is to get a good currency price for their costumers, and their costumers could be me, trying to buy a few bucks for a trip or a big institution doing their hedging as usual. When a bank especulate in Forex they act more like a market maker, they maybe carry the bank's name but they are in a completely different kind of business than regular banks.

I would guess that any regulation that may come will target brokers and hedge funds, they are the bad boys messing up the OTC Forex. But honestly I cant see how the regulators will do it.
  • #70
  • Jul 28, 2009 3:34pm Jul 28, 2009 3:34pm
Platypus, I agree that it's difficult to watch the right fundamentals at the right time, but something that helps is looking for divergences between what currencies and other markets (oil, bonds) are pricing in. So If you see Oil rallying strongly yet USDCAD is just ranging, one of the markets is pricing in the wrong outcome, unless USDCAD is being driven by shorter term Canadian or US fundamentals rather than oil. Thus if USDCAD starts to develop a negative sentiment and oil becomes a focus, it's a good idea to start shorting USDCAD. This is an example of how I make most of my money in those few strong moves that happen each year.

I just came across your journal and I like what I see so far. Keep it up!

All the best,

Kris Matthews

Quoting Platypus
Fundies do drive the markets since they are the originators of fear and greed. Just watch what the markets do around news time

That said , to find wich fundamentals will drive fear or greed is another thing, is sort of like finding price. You are following interest rate but what is really driving the market is oil prices, you start to watch oil but now bonds is what matters. Very rarely you will be watching the right fundamentals in the right time, just like very rarely you will be righ about the right price on the right timeframe.

All...
  • #71
  • Jul 28, 2009 4:32pm Jul 28, 2009 4:32pm
Quoting kristdm
Platypus, I agree that it's difficult to watch the right fundamentals at the right time, but something that helps is looking for divergences between what currencies and other markets (oil, bonds) are pricing in. So If you see Oil rallying strongly yet USDCAD is just ranging, one of the markets is pricing in the wrong outcome, unless USDCAD is being driven by shorter term Canadian or US fundamentals rather than oil. Thus if USDCAD starts to develop a negative sentiment and oil becomes a focus, it's a good idea to start shorting USDCAD. This is an...
Hey Kris thanks for stopping by

You are probably right about fundamental divergences, and I'm sure it could be a gold mine in the right hands. In my case fundies are more a hobby than anything else. I like to try to decode what is happening out there behind the curtains but if I had to trade it for a living I'm sure I would fail miserably.

Stop by anytime buddy and enlight us with your thoughts, looks like you have the brains for this kind of things, and I will be more than happy to hear what you have to say.
  • #72
  • Jul 28, 2009 4:53pm Jul 28, 2009 4:53pm
Ok...long day for me because I had to go after some pips that I left on my premature exit this morning. Ended up with +30 pips, basically scalps with ultra tight SL.

I like clean easy moves, but the origin of this one was a little choppy so I decided to get out. I was waiting for a drop like this to happen because of the bond auction, missed it but well... there are other moves out there to be catched.

Gonna get some sleep...nice trade to all !
  • #73
  • Jul 29, 2009 9:57am Jul 29, 2009 9:57am
Ahh ! The beauty of the 4 hour time frame is that it gives you hands down the best cost benefit of any other time frame around.

Yesterday I woke up with a alarm on the 4 hour chart. I was a little grogy but but I did a quick calculation on the doji size and came up with 30 pips stop loss. I took the trade and went back to bed. Now at around 100 pips my target of 100 to 130 pips per week is already accomplished. I'm gonna close my trade now and take the rest of the day off.

Good trade to all
  • #74
  • Jul 29, 2009 4:18pm Jul 29, 2009 4:18pm
http://af.reuters.com/article/topNew...56S0L020090729

Humm... ! So the IMF will start to sell gold .

I don't believe they are trying to help the poor lending money but anyways...

If they are really selling a chunck of their gold prices of the metal can go significantly down what could put down pressure on the Euro.

So we have equities ready to retrace, E/U already retracing, gold being dumped on the market, fall coming...all that tells me to be a dollar bull.
  • #75
  • Jul 30, 2009 1:53pm Jul 30, 2009 1:53pm
Ok...today's rally on equities was quite odd on my view. Off course one can find "reasons" for any bull or bear stamped, but, in order to pinpoint the real cause of things like this, one have to dig a little deeper.

After a few telephone calls and some research over some not very well known places on the net, I found some reasonable explanation for the rally.

The first, more credible and more accepted among professional trader was the fact that some "data disruption " happened and messed up some indicators on various platforms. As soon as the problem was fixed some computer algoritms on really big market players saw it as a huge drop on the market, and sent buy orders all over, this made futures to go up and brought the rest of the market with it. There are some proofs that at the exact moment the "data disruption" got fixed was the EXACT moment the market took off.

Second probable cause was about how the bond market is behaving. Short term debt auctions had problems, but as we got to longer term debt, things are getting better what means that for now we are ok....the world will still end, but later.

Third was the "vanilla one". People just started to feel better after the 7 year action went better than expected. Well.... equity traders are well known to be the least "intelligent" of all kind of traders out there, so I will give some merits to this explanation.

I got a few more hints about banks in china dumping dollars etc...etc but the fact is that so far the Forex market did not followed the big rally, and thats weird. If tonight or tomorrow we have a big spike, that will be the second time in a row that equities are ahead in the curve, and I'm gonna start to believe that equity traders are getting smarter ( at least for now ) and we are following them.
  • #76
  • Jul 30, 2009 2:07pm Jul 30, 2009 2:07pm
Ok..now about my trading day....

Got stopped out for +1 pip. Took a trade on the break of the 4 hour bar set up my break even (+1) as I usually do, went to do something else, came back and the trade was gone.

Not one of the most exiting day
  • #77
  • Jul 30, 2009 2:25pm Jul 30, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting Platypus
Ok...today's rally on equities was quite odd on my view. Off course one can find "reasons" for any bull or bear stamped, but, in order to pinpoint the real cause of things like this, one have to dig a little deeper.
Hi Plat,

My take is much less sophisticated than yours, of course. I was thinking that yesterday's sell-off in equities was based on some rumors about China Banks cutting back sharply on their recent aggressive lending, and that today's run up was a reaction to (in disbelief) of that rumor.

Somebody is protecting the Daily Pivot on E/U like the junkyard dog, though...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #78
  • Jul 30, 2009 3:59pm Jul 30, 2009 3:59pm
Quoting The Fool
Hi Plat,

My take is much less sophisticated than yours, of course. I was thinking that yesterday's sell-off in equities was based on some rumors about China Banks cutting back sharply on their recent aggressive lending, and that today's run up was a reaction to (in disbelief) of that rumor.

Somebody is protecting the Daily Pivot on E/U like the junkyard dog, though...

Hey Fool...whats up ?

You may be right...I'm more in favor of the algorithm bug because according to experts 70% of all acctual liquidity on equities has been driven by high speed trading so you dont want to mess with crazy supercomputers.
  • #79
  • Jul 30, 2009 5:13pm Jul 30, 2009 5:13pm
In a post above I wrote something about equity traders not being "very smart". Off course I don't want to generalise this concept because you can and you do find some very smart people trading stocks. By the way I just said that because it is something that I heard over and over again again among professional traders out of Wall Street.

Once some people from the bank I use to work to, went to Europe to another bank for a Forex workshop. We spent a few days with their risk management team. than we had a sabbatical from their tech gurus and finally we spent a few days with their Forex traders. On our last day over there they took us to eat at a very nice restaurant. Ok...as soon as their traders started to drink a little and get more confortable they started to joke about equity traders, how dumb they are and how those so called "pros" in Wall Street get their account transfered to the bank's account. We love them, they said , without them there will be no Ferraris!

I believe that there is a lot of truth in all of this because main street is very invested in Wall Street. It is virtually impossible to find somebody that does not own stocks direct or indirectely. Dow Jones, S&P etc are on the radio all the time and being so popular these institutions attract a lot of people that do'nt have a clue about what they are putting themselves in.

Amateurs apart what amazes me the most is the kind of so called professionals or experts Wall Street have. I'm posting a video and pay attention around 1:26 min. The guy ask a silly question and makes a dumb remark to Jim Rogers that serves like a good illustration to what kind of advise one can have on wall street and CNBC. So you trade because you "may get lucky" thats how it is done ?

Off course Jim Rogers smile and corrected the guy saying that his trades are not based on "luck"

This guy should be embaraced of making such a frivolous comment/question on a national economic networks but it tells a lot about the so called "pros" out there.

Forex, Furutes and maybe options are less popular so people that manage to get in and survive this markets, in my opinion are one step ahead of the crowed.

It feels good to belong to a "elite" of traders

Inserted Video
  • #80
  • Jul 30, 2009 6:08pm Jul 30, 2009 6:08pm
Ha ha, thanks for the video. I always love watching Jim Rogers because he's on a higher level than everyone else in the room. However, I wondered what Platypus and other people on this thread thought about the debt/inflation imbalance he was citing for currencies and the bond market. Although he claims to be the "world's worst trader" because of his notoriously bad timing he is predicting a currency crisis this year or next year. I'm wondering if he's suggesting that this may be a pandemic type of event like the Asian crisis that spread from one country to several, or rather a big crash in one currency that we should take advantage of.

Jim's strategy for looking for imbalances is a little more long term than mine, but I'm nevertheless interested in this and wouldn't mind bouncing off ideas with people. After all macro trading is all about considering scenarios.

Again thanks for the post and your commentary!

Kris Matthews
0 traders viewing now