Peaches`s trading log

tenkan sen and kijun sen are flat, price is inside the cloud.

This is not an area for a good trade, but geppy is able to form in the last trading days of the month a bullish candle, maybe a monthly pin bar

Of course I waited for a confirmation of the doji at cad/lfx, but there was none.

2 years ago, I would have gone long by appeareance of the doji, glad not to have done this

double bottom ?

looks like market is awoken today, so something interisting has
happened today on severl crosses:

first geppy has broken through ichimoku cloud. This was very importend for kumo traders.

The fast MA tenkan sen is going UP. Plus the chikou span is entering the price line. This are bullish indications.

This view is supported by the the LFX/jpy. We have the same indications, but we have nearly a bullish cross here

So, what next ? Re-test the cloud for proof is solid resistance ?
Or straight UP ? Lets see...

btw, weekly has free entry in the weekly cloud, so this solid resistance is taken.

Also a look at the weekly TNX is interisting: The weekly tnx is a dragonfly doji ! To avoid irritations for further upmoves, the US session tomorrow has to have a rising TNX, so geppy should rise during US session tomorrow.

I was reading an article about ichimoku, and something obvious came in to my mind:

The cloud is showing the TREND

A falling cloud: trend is down

A rising cloud: trend is up

the cad has broken though the daily and weekly cloud.

So I learned from this: not every doji or shooting star or hammer above or below the cloud is a signal for a reverse. It might happen, but best is to wait for confirmation.

support from the daily and weekly cloud....

opposite to gbp/chf:

eur/gbp: a evening star below the kumo.

remember a short below the cloud is a "save"* trade..


*...of course in forex nothing is save, only propabillity

eur/cad plus gbp/cad have ben pushed through the cloud.

I will not enter here, I wait for a retrace to test the cloud as new resistance.

If there is no re-test:

no retest, no trade.

from those 2 pairs I would prefer eur/cad short, because he pound is to bullish...

but sushi has much resistance ahead:

weekly kijun sen, tenkan sen plus cloud....

the counterpart eur/aud has a weekly inside down pattern, but also nice support below. Not that easy to trade, I won´t trade sushi and eur/aud.

I like to spot something on my chart, which nobody might have seen, but I find pretty usefull.

It is tom demark projection and trendline indicator.

the small dotted lines in light colour are trendline, often triangels.

they are made by computer, no trendline drawing by hand

But this indikator also has tom demark projection for targets

Targets are the thick green and red line.

Notice flip in the projection target for GU:

I forgot someting to mention on GU:

We have a bullish cross above the cloud, plus the chinkou span above the price.

I have this signal on broker liteforex, I have this signal not on broker oanda !

On broker oanda I have daily bullish candle, on lieforex I have a bearish one.Oanda has no bullish cross.

Both broker have had daily close.

GBP_USD Spot.png

no cross on my charts as well Peter.....but i still see a BULLISH VIEW..
We will get better idea after weekly close

baz

Hi Peter,

With some little knowledge of Ichimoko, here is some of my personal observation
blended with TD Sequential. Currency Pair is GJ daily.

With the thick Cloud below the current daily candles , Ichimoko unveils a clear picture that NO MAJOR reversal* can be expected yet.
Its seems bias to continue uptrend still.

Is there anything I miss to see in my chart below?

Thanks in Advance.

p/s caveat amptor: Unless something major fundamental happens.

Hi satni,

I agree with your basic analyses of ichimoku picture, but you miss an importend thing: We have a neutral buy signal from the crossing of the tenkan sen and kinjun sen (the tenkan sen goes through kijun sen from below.) Most importend detail is the angel of the tenkan sen: it is very strong upward, I suppose ~80 degree. This strong angel is a good signal.

Notice on the left side of the daily chart the angel of the tenkan sen, it is straight upward.

Have a look at the tenkan sen /kinjun sen trading strategie:

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_w...ijun_Sen_Cross

I expect this trading week a very very violant bullish move, because a monthly candlestick pattern must be avoid: a monthly hanging man. This bearish monthly candle has to be changed in a bullish candle.

Once in the week I take a look at the weekly COT report, which gives basic inside in the bias of commercial and large traders:

http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/M...goryId/40.aspx

Last 2 weeks for geppy we have seen a large battle between large speculators and commercial traders:

From COT reports:

Week marked with 1:

The commercial was a very large seller, over 20000 contracts while the large spec flipped to a long position (this was the drop in the chart) and reduced his short. Small specs increased both their long and short positions and but
increased their long. Attitude toward the yen has changed dramatically
with the spec, both long and short long the yen and the commercials aggressively selling (this was the bottom at the lower part of the cloud, I suppose). So far the specs have the money on this trade.

Week marked with 2:

Again the commercial was a very large seller of over 21000 contracts
This is over 41000 contracts that the commercial has sold to the large and
small spec during the past two weeks. OI climbed by over 22,000 contracts as both sides have increased the size of their bets. This is puzzling. Are the
large specs hedge funds buying the yen against overseas investments in some sort of carry trade?

Last sentence is exactly what I think, and I will swim with the big fishes (go with the commercials)

Peter,

My master,Thanks for your marvelous comments .

Hi satny,

thanks. But I`am not a master, just a beginner since 2 years :-)

To trade a trend-following system like ichimoku sometimes is a bit
boring, because market in the last weeks imho have been 70-80% in,
a ranging mode. In ranging market ichimoku is worthless, maybe
it is best to avoid a trade in ranging market conditions.

My trading plan is to look out for a bearish candlestick pattern
around the upper part of the weekly cloud. This is exit signal for me.
Maybe a bit above or below the weekly cloud, there might be next ranging time.

Risk on the daily chart is below the kijun sen imho, which is a very,
close SL. Kumotraders would have SL 1 daily candle lenghts below
the daily kumo.

Have a nice day

For eur/usd most importend was a weekly close above the weekly cloud.

eur/usd is now in a free territory. I started a eur/usd long trade with target
area 1.45 - 1.46.

Of course I splitted my trade in 3 parts with different targets (1.45, 1.455, 1.46).

Risk is inside the weekly cloud (~1.41X).

1. On audjpy we have seen a break into the daily cloud.

2. But the big traders protected there gains and price reversed back up.

3. Those 2 candles at the upper part of the daily cloud has been "natural"
reaction of price to get through this resistance. Especially the second candle
was the missing hint to me, that price will not drop more (power of bulls
from long lower wick of the second candle).

4. Now price is ready to resume uptrend.

5. Risk is ~77

6. Targets are....well, we have to zooom out a bit...85,60.