Okay guys. So hopefully by now you've seen the reasons for taking the pin, the explanation of the areas of trouble. Great.
Now ask yourself, "what would I have done?"
I'll tell you what I did. I got spooked. I got out for 0.42R when it looked like it was turning at the first target. I think the best I would have got out of this is a break even if I'd let it run.
Why?
Because IMO those two huge bullish bars on the way down would haver caused trouble to all but the bravest of traders. I saw massive reactions of what I considered to be minor PPZ levels which made me think the strength of the downmove wasn't that strong. Ironically enough, at the major PPZ level price didn't bounce too much.
So how we manage is down to our styles and trader discretion. If you had left your stop above the nose of the pin (which is where mine started billye) all the way down then you'd be laughing and clapping your hands right now. But ask yourself this, how many trades would reach one to one and then reverse on you for a loss? And how would you handle that? I can post a chart but look at the recent BEOB at the swing high on GU daily, the one that started the consolidation. That would have gone to about 0.8R and then turned on you. You could happily have managed this trade either way. I'm just trying to get you to think of the big picture.
Here's the good news.
If these charts don't give you confidence in the material then nothing will. Price reacted exactly where we would expect it to. We can't predict how much it will react but we can pretty much tell where it's going to bounce. And if we break through those areas of support we can tell that they are going to act as resistance. No voodoo here, just PPZs plain and simple.
What I am encouraging you to do is rather than take a simple glance at this and think "oh man if I had held it all the way down then I would be laughing", really look at it bar by bar and watch it unfold. Ask yourself honestly how you would have felt when those big bullish bars appeared. Where truly would you have got our of this one? And across a hundred trades how would this style of trade management work for you? There is no right way. It's trader discretion. But whatever your style, you'll always end up making money on trades where some others lose and vice versa
This started because I was kicking myself at only making 0.42R from this move. But I did a detailed examination and realised that the way I trade I doubt if I could have held through those two big green reaction bars, especuially seeing as they came off minor PPZs.
And confession time. I saw Mike say that he wasn't taking it because it didn't have enough confluences for him to believe it was truly the beginning if the reversal and this affected my faith in the bar.
So I know my areas of weakness. 1) Overly influenced by another's opinion. Solution: awareness, confidence and experience. Will look out for this in the future. 2) Nervy when in profit Solution: Have a pre written plan knowing when my stops are moving up and where my TPs are. Have this written before I check "forum confluence". And so on...
I have taken four daily trades so far this month. The other reason I wrote this was to show you the process I go over with each trade at this stage of my learning curve. It's a little more complicated than "dang it. this one ran, i should have stayed in" because each trade behaves differently and we're looking for a plan that works across a hundred trades. But it's what I do to refine, learn and keep adapting.
There's a saying from something I read about "deliberate practice". Going to the driving range and hitting your golf ball for 8 hours a day won't make you a better golfer. Spending 8 hours a day hitting the ball, aiming for 80% of them to land within 6 foot of the pin, and taking note of what's wrong and making adjustments.... now that will get you where you want to be.
I hope with these three posts I can encourage you to find your own way of mining your previous trades for lessons and learning.
I am thinking of doing something like this every weekend for the thread. Next weekend I want to do something on spreadsheets.
Hope it was of use.
Aaron
By the way, the only reason I know anything in this business is James16, I consider this proprietary material of his, earned after many years of blood sweat and tears and graciously shared with us for free. I learn a lot from James about how to be a decent human being and what it means to give back. And while I have the ability, that is what I will continue to do here. With gratitude.
Now ask yourself, "what would I have done?"
I'll tell you what I did. I got spooked. I got out for 0.42R when it looked like it was turning at the first target. I think the best I would have got out of this is a break even if I'd let it run.
Why?
Because IMO those two huge bullish bars on the way down would haver caused trouble to all but the bravest of traders. I saw massive reactions of what I considered to be minor PPZ levels which made me think the strength of the downmove wasn't that strong. Ironically enough, at the major PPZ level price didn't bounce too much.
So how we manage is down to our styles and trader discretion. If you had left your stop above the nose of the pin (which is where mine started billye) all the way down then you'd be laughing and clapping your hands right now. But ask yourself this, how many trades would reach one to one and then reverse on you for a loss? And how would you handle that? I can post a chart but look at the recent BEOB at the swing high on GU daily, the one that started the consolidation. That would have gone to about 0.8R and then turned on you. You could happily have managed this trade either way. I'm just trying to get you to think of the big picture.
Here's the good news.
If these charts don't give you confidence in the material then nothing will. Price reacted exactly where we would expect it to. We can't predict how much it will react but we can pretty much tell where it's going to bounce. And if we break through those areas of support we can tell that they are going to act as resistance. No voodoo here, just PPZs plain and simple.
What I am encouraging you to do is rather than take a simple glance at this and think "oh man if I had held it all the way down then I would be laughing", really look at it bar by bar and watch it unfold. Ask yourself honestly how you would have felt when those big bullish bars appeared. Where truly would you have got our of this one? And across a hundred trades how would this style of trade management work for you? There is no right way. It's trader discretion. But whatever your style, you'll always end up making money on trades where some others lose and vice versa
This started because I was kicking myself at only making 0.42R from this move. But I did a detailed examination and realised that the way I trade I doubt if I could have held through those two big green reaction bars, especuially seeing as they came off minor PPZs.
And confession time. I saw Mike say that he wasn't taking it because it didn't have enough confluences for him to believe it was truly the beginning if the reversal and this affected my faith in the bar.
So I know my areas of weakness. 1) Overly influenced by another's opinion. Solution: awareness, confidence and experience. Will look out for this in the future. 2) Nervy when in profit Solution: Have a pre written plan knowing when my stops are moving up and where my TPs are. Have this written before I check "forum confluence". And so on...
I have taken four daily trades so far this month. The other reason I wrote this was to show you the process I go over with each trade at this stage of my learning curve. It's a little more complicated than "dang it. this one ran, i should have stayed in" because each trade behaves differently and we're looking for a plan that works across a hundred trades. But it's what I do to refine, learn and keep adapting.
There's a saying from something I read about "deliberate practice". Going to the driving range and hitting your golf ball for 8 hours a day won't make you a better golfer. Spending 8 hours a day hitting the ball, aiming for 80% of them to land within 6 foot of the pin, and taking note of what's wrong and making adjustments.... now that will get you where you want to be.
I hope with these three posts I can encourage you to find your own way of mining your previous trades for lessons and learning.
I am thinking of doing something like this every weekend for the thread. Next weekend I want to do something on spreadsheets.
Hope it was of use.
Aaron
By the way, the only reason I know anything in this business is James16, I consider this proprietary material of his, earned after many years of blood sweat and tears and graciously shared with us for free. I learn a lot from James about how to be a decent human being and what it means to give back. And while I have the ability, that is what I will continue to do here. With gratitude.
