james16 Chart Thread

Ghous

It would be the two bar Pin or aka the 2 bar reversal circled in white.

Boy, reading #1 is like verbal A.D.D/ sorry for the confusion

Hey Tricello

Welcome to finally posting

Your post all sounds very sound to me. Just my personal take would be, yes we are clearly at a larger resistance PPZ around the 135 and stalling. But this pair has been stuck in a pretty large sized range and chopyy. There is more chop underneath to give this trade problems. So if you see this resistance as strong enough to hold then waiting till your green line hits of course is a trade mgmt decision. I just tried to show a chart with where a lot of bar highs and lows are located to give it potential problems. For me I would prefer to trade away from these areas or I should say I am more lenient with my mgmt when trading away from these areas.

Have a great weekend!
Mike

I live in Raleigh, NC. People move here from all over the world because of the climate and job market. People visit here on business or for pleasure - and they play golf here. North Carolina is a kind of Mecca for golfers, we have several world class courses here that the public can play.

Last week was my annual golf week. And as usual, I stayed here and played the courses in the area. And as usual I meet a lot of interesting people from all over. I want to tell you about two of them.

The first guy was a professional Bull Rider. He is all of 5 feet 9 inches tall, 145 lbs - and RANKED number 2 in the world. He is an unimpressive looking fellow, but sports a very impressive resume!

I asked how it was he could jump up on 1 ton of muscle and anger, and wrestle it. He said many people ask him that and it makes him laugh. 'Wrestling' the bull had nothing to do with what he did because he has absolutely no control over what that animal might, or might not do. He explained that the sport is 100% about balance and reacting to what the animal did at any given moment. Interestingly enough, he even noted that there were 'rules' as to what to do and not to do when perched up there in order to have a shot at getting through your 8 seconds.

Three days later at a golf course called "Tobacco Road", which i highly recommend you play if you are in the area, I met Lillian and her husband. They bought a three day golf package in the area. Being that it was in the middle of the week, I congratulated her on being retired and she said, that it was a partial retirement as she is writing her memoirs, and speaks frequently at events around the country. I'm a curious person, and that lead to a long conversation...

As it turns out, she is the first African American woman to attend Harvard Business School, receiving her degree in 1969. For those who may not know (Youngsters, and people from outside the US), that was a period of time of huge social unrest and upheaval over Vietnam and Race. It was an ugly time. It was not fashionable for a Black person or a woman to attend Harvard at that time - and she is both.

She told me a lot of her experience there, but what caught my attention most was that she said that she was very alone there. She was not invited to a study group. She was rarely spoken to. Professors made it difficult for her to participate in class - and much of your grade is based on class participation. She completed her course of study 100% on her own, and it took tremendous internal strength and perseverance to get it done.

I was going to make a few remarks about how these experiences are similar to learning to trade, but that is entirely too narrow minded.

You hear that only 5% ever make it in this game - but I submit to you that 5% or less really make it in life and achieve what they can be - or live their dream. The vast unwashed masses never achieve their simple dreams, much less going beyond their dreams. And none of them ever even recognize that there are dreams undreamed!

Each of us are handed a set of gifts and abilities, as well as weaknesses. We all live in the world together, faced with the same opportunities to put these things to work for us. None of us has no more control over external forces any more than the Bull rider had over his bull. Yet he is a winner. He gets the same opportunities as everyone else in the arena. We, like him can only strive to maintain balance. And follow a few simple rules we all learned when 5 years old.

Like the minority MBA student at Harvard, we are truly alone in our endeavor, and the will to win comes from inside ourselves. Encouragement certainly helps, but ultimately we are in charge of what goes on in between our own ears. No one else can give you your thinking.

Hope. Is there any? Yes, but remember most people fail in the endeavor. They always have, and always will. Most reading this post will likewise have no success. Welcome to reality. Getting our mind in a state that is conducive to real success is not easy, because you have to admit that what you 'know', is wrong - and that is very hard to do. That takes humility and few are those who possess it.

But there is a chance. We can ride the bull and overcome the odds of society. First, others have done it, so you can too. I firmly believe that people have the capacity to change and excel. Second, those that have done it, have chosen to do so. Now, please don't read that and say "I choose, I choose", because remember, 95% fail and never really do.

So how is it that the little shrimp road Bulls? How did Lillian go from a family working as subsistence farmers in South Carolina flout convention and society as a whole and make it to Harvard and finish her MBA?

In a word - Commitment. Being committed is much harder than it seems. A Pig and a farmer go to a BBQ. The farmer eats the BBQ, and the Pig is the BBQ. Which one is committed at this BBQ?

Be the Pig.

Do the things that bring success. Staying up late drinking every night is not committed action, unless you're up for family troubles and liver trouble. Lillian was committed. She lived at Radcliffe because at the time Harvard had no dorms for females. This added a mile walk in the morning and the evening to her day. She was committed - she continued to raise her hand in class, and eventually speak up when a professor ignored her. She was committed - she ignored the incredulous stares and whispering behind her back and forged on. She studied hard and did what was required to be a winner. She had control of Lillian.

The Bull rider was committed. Do you think he family cheered him on? What do you think he heard from them? "You'll get killed or maimed". "Are you crazy?" He had a goal and a dream and kept on going - he is considered the best now.

Neither one of these folks let anything stand between themselves or the dream. Most of all they controlled themselves, because it is easy to take the path of least resistance. These two striking individuals have have won in life - big time. They learned that nothing really stands in their way - except for what goes on inside their head - and they learned to shape their thinking to their benefit.

What about you - have you really come to know what you need to in order to join the 5% ?

Are you already in the 5%? Have you learned how to impart that to others? Can you encourage? Can you reach the true pinnacle, and inspire? Does what you say spur people on and help them to change? Do you lift up or pull down? If everyone were like you, would you really like that world?

Sad to say, most of those here who are good traders are no where near able to do this, and 95% of these never will be. Personal arrogance and viewing others as Amhararets stands in their way of achieving personal greatness. Eventually, these people fail in life itself.

Ultimately, we all become a faded memory, and then are forgotten. All that is left is a tombstone, and as much as you would like to, you don't get to put any final words on it. Others do that for you - or to you.

I had an interesting week. I met some truly great people. And those kinds of people build me up and make me think.

Ah I see...

Your ppz is all good, but you missed a very important point.

the Pin bar never broke.

At least for the first few months with this technique of merging bars it's recommended that you use the period converter posted by Jarroo in one of his posts.

Below is my Chf/Jpy 8H chart on Fxpro.

Not the best of pin bars anyways evident from the failed attempt of price to try and break through 88.

The divergence and the low of the bar however suggests it might have been a good play had the pin bar given us a quick hard break in which case the 88 level would probably have worked as resistance...

But we're smart enough to act only upon what we see and not what we anticipate right?

Ghous.

Loved the fact you shared your experience with these great guys and thoughts with us.

Truly inspirational,

Thanks STO,

Ghous.

Wow, that truly is an inspiring post, thanks so much for sharing!

Raleigh is a nice area...I grew up in Greensboro, just a couple of hours away

Looks good UG,

Wouldn't hesitate to rate it in the A category.

With the trend, 95 round number, beautiful "tiny" appearance signaling a real exhaustion of the pull back.

Ghous.

Thanks for the reply. I see what you mean about the 8H pin never breaking. I think that entry would have been the more conservative one but I actually was playing the reversal at the low of 2nd bars close and therein lies my problem. Thanks for the alternative p.o.v.

Storage Pro,
Great post, made me pause for thought, I enjoyed and learnt from it too (except even google can't tell me what an Amhararet is!!!).

I was reading a Richard Russell investment letter recently, (if readers are not aware Richard Russell is a grand old man of investment letters with a history and wealth of knowledge wisdom and experience that goes back to before the 2nd world war, and has made some seriously awesome market calls in his time)... anyway, reflecting on his 85 years of life so far, he recently said the following that your post reminded me of ...

"If I've come to any conclusion it is this -- 85% of mankind is clueless and living on a hand-to-mouth basis. 5% of mankind is smart and pretty much knows what they are doing. Ten percent are intelligent enough to follow the 5%."


All the best,

rikrok

Spent the last week tuna fishing with some good friends, got bounced around pretty good big swell out west here but the fishing was worth it. Caught and released many fish, I cherish my time on the ocean. So much to read to get caught up with this thread and it moved. Couldnt help but notice the wind blown swell right here this too will pass, a storm now and then cleans things up in the long run. As I sit here and read drinking a cold beer and still swaying from the time on the water I cant help but compare this thread to a lighthouse for all being tossed about on the forex ocean and how its light has saved and helped so many me included. Guess I am just trying to say thanks J16 and the seniors this lighthouse really shines!!

Very symbolic, nice prose!! I like it....good analogy.

GregB

'am haa' rets is an ancient Hebrew term meaning "people of the land". It was used as a term of contempt (although that was not the original meaning of the term), in ancient times to describe people who were unschooled, unlearned or failed to closely observe the great body of Rabbinic tradition that had built up over time. It was a term of religious opprobrium.

The term was once one of general respect - just like the term 'paganus' (dweller in a rural community)where the english term 'pagan' came from as well as "heath" (one who lives out in the field) from where the English word "heathen" comes from.

The real problem is that knowledge and ability often carry with it, arrogance. And no one can really learn good things from the smug or arrogant. Those are like this often view themselves as members of a high priesthood.

What really kills me about people like that is that they generally got this knowledge from somewhere else. You only have what was given.

uhm that sounds like California...which is why it's the most populous state in the nation..

btw i agree with your 5% thing.. in reality it's prolly more like 1% make it

is there a point to bragging about other people on the internet?

oh and what is their monthly ROI?

If we are talking about each trade being min 0.75 RR min (i.e. you risk $1000 min you get back is 750) then I think yeah 95% win rate would be a bit high. I reckon 85% is doable using this material or even 90% when you get good.

I dont get that if he is so sure of his hit rate then why isnt he betting 5-8% per trade?

I have a notepad file that I copy and paste what I consider really important points on trading. This is a a really great post though so I'm going to put it in there too.

Thanks for sharing this.

Going on holiday next week so obliviously sitting on the beach I need to be reading something trading related, so I ordered Prings book (I have one of his others on Technical Analysis which has a chapter on Price Patterns).

I wasn't bragging big guy.....I was responding to someone telling me I was full of S**t....I just wanted to prove a point....perhaps if you read the post I was responding to, it might help....or do you even know how to read?

About their ROI?....perhaps you should ask them....they are certainly not living on the streets of Japan (which is where HappyTrader is a professor at)

GregB

Im on page 150 of the thread and SeekingLights posts are really interesting, check them out.