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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #38,461
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:29pm Jul 22, 2009 9:29pm
Quoting batesmotel
Question:

Ok....I knew this SOB CADJPY was heading north...there was a PERFECT Weekly BUOVB...BUT, the Englfing Bull Bar closed right on the the Monthly Resistance level and round number 85.00.

Can I take a Long in this scenario? GOD, I wanted to go long...but I refrained myself...I reckon it has approx. 423 pips worth of legs before encountering any major resistance...

Maybe it's not too late...or perhaps I can catch a limit buy if I get picked up at 85.00.

Comments would desperately help here.....

GregB
Hey Greg

Careful here, your bar is not a BUOB. For it to be a BUOB it needs to have a lower LOW then the previous bars LOW. This bar is simply a BUB, or a buillish bar, not normally a bar that we would trade and take a signal off, but just use for information.

Being that we aren't at a good swing low that has created some space, this isn't the ideal area for a BUOB if it was one. We can see right now we are sitting right at the first potential trouble area for us to get over.


Best
Mike
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  • #38,462
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:36pm Jul 22, 2009 9:36pm
Quoting jarroo
Hey Aaron.

" . . Jarroo looked at that UJ and he didn't think "how could I have made money from that move?". He said "even though I didn't take this, I know that the way I trade I would most likely have been out for break even."

It is a diffferent way to look at a trade. Many see how much they can profit from a trade and I do look at potential targets, for sure.

But my main focus is "How can I minimize or eliminate the risk in a trade once it starts going in my direction". "Where are the turning points within in the...
Great post Jim, realizing that approach was an eureka moment for me, that really helps, is very simple and eliminates the fear of losing completely.

Got no time to be afraid anymore. lol
  • #38,463
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:39pm Jul 22, 2009 9:39pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Greg

Careful here, your bar is not a BUOB. For it to be a BUOB it needs to have a lower LOW then the previous bars LOW. This bar is simply a BUB, or a buillish bar, not normally a bar that we would trade and take a signal off, but just use for information.

Being that we aren't at a good swing low that has created some space, this isn't the ideal area for a BUOB if it was one. We can see right now we are sitting right at the first potential trouble area for us to get over.


Best
Mike

You're right...it's not a technically proper buovb, but it is a very close dblhc that has bounced off of a major support level @ 78.89 and settled in on a close right at a major resistance @ 85.00....

Must we forfeit this orgasmic long setup just for a few pips short on a dblhc?

GregB

PS I mean, most of us can claim a few pips short in this area...but it's technique that really satisfys...
  • #38,464
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:42pm Jul 22, 2009 9:42pm
Quoting batesmotel
You're right...it's not a technically proper buovb, but it is a very close dblhc that has boounced off of a major support level @ 78.89 and settled in on a close right at a major resistance @ 85.00....

Must we forfeit this orgasmic long setup just for a few pips short on a dblhc?

GregB

Depends on the trader, I personally am very picky about my bars as you probably know. So that + the location of this one would be an easy no trade for me. Logic might still see with a decent certainty where price is headed. But when you are trading to make money it is more about being as certain as you can be with you personal method.

Sort of like those iffy pins we get, that I might pass on but another trader might take. If both traders know what works for them we can't say one is right over the other. But I would still say location on this one is far from ideal as we want these bullish reversals at swing lows(for the most part).

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #38,465
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:50pm Jul 22, 2009 9:50pm
Quoting mbqb11
Depends on the trader, I personally am very picky about my bars as you probably know....
Ok...I gotcha point....

My real question is this....if we have a picture perfect PA that just happens to close smack dab on top of a major ppz (support or resistance) area....can we take this trade and assume it will break the ppz since it is sitting right on top of it?

GregB
  • #38,466
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:51pm Jul 22, 2009 9:51pm
Quoting batesmotel
Ok...I gotcha point....

My real question is this....if we have a picture perfect PA that just happens to close smack dab on top of a major ppz (support or resistance) area....can we take this trade and assume it will break the ppz since it is sitting right on top of it?

GregB

My criteria for this scenario is if it closes above/below my marked area. So if I am watching in this case the 85 area , if it closes above that area, my bias is strength. So I then try to limit it down to a more specific area and see where we close in relation to that. I am very big on this type of thing, specifically with my lower timeframe trading to

Best
Mike
  • #38,467
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:02pm Jul 22, 2009 10:02pm
Quoting mbqb11
My criteria for this scenario is if it closes above/below my marked area. So if I am watching in this case the 85 area , if it closes above that area, my bias is strength. So I then try to limit it down to a more specific area and see where we close in relation to that. I am very big on this type of thing, specifically with my lower timeframe trading to

Best
Mike
Right...ok...thanks for that! That helps a lot...."experience" I think sums up that scenario and how to handle it...

I think I will now retire to beddy byes....and read myself to sleep with "Martin Pring on Price Patterns"....what an exciting life I have... lol...

GregB
  • #38,468
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:24pm Jul 22, 2009 10:24pm
Quoting johnnykanoo
i did it all by myself and based on my own analysis which helped me to arrive at the thought of I don't want to "cheat" and just use others analysis. rather i would like to do my analysis,...
IMHO the winning approach,

This is what I would recommend to every newbie.

make sure you've done your mt4/platform homework on analyzing the pairs first up before you long on to the FF J16 thread. You could be a bit lenient in that you could edit your decisions/thoughts after you read diff view points here by different traders which you probably over looked or gave less attention to...and then as times passes you'll realize there are fewer times you have to change your thoughts to synchronize with the others at the thread (either because you're already in the same boat as most here or you're confident enough to believe in what you think is going to happen and no Mike or James or Jarroo can influence that)

putting up the J16 thread and reading all the views on it first and then proceeding to your mt4 to take a trade just because Jarroo is doing the same even when you agree on the validity of the trade can have detrimental effects on your long term success.

Thanks for bringing it up John and allowing others to learn...

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #38,469
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:25pm Jul 22, 2009 10:25pm
Quoting raczekfx
G....z

Putting J16ch thread in commercial bin is a 'low blow' on FF part.
It took me some time to find it again. I can't even see new j16 posts under 'Active Threads' .
Maybe it's just me...
Oh well, who cares, it will be new traders who will miss out.
Word 'commercial' was always big turn off for us.

Hope FF reconsiders.

happy trading.
R
Lol,

The topic's under a heavy debate.

We can only sit back and hope all turns out well...
I believe . . .
  • #38,470
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:48pm Jul 22, 2009 10:48pm
Cyrus,
since u too are from Asia, i decided to intentionally delay posting this (u went offline about the same time as me last night).
Since u are now online.... here's my response:

Quoting Cyrus
I was looking @ this 4hr pin mainly cause it looked like there was a confluence of support there.
From the chart, weekly pivot, fibs and old 'normal/natural' support as well.
....)
if u would notice, my previous response was directed purely to the discussion of the PA shape (sort of the "meat" of your initial question)
but it's great that u are looking for confluences as in this potential trade setup, to discern if if a setup is promising/valid or not (according to your own risk profile)

Quote
On Location, Space and Shape... i'm not that clear that this means,
my little guess:
Location = Where the pin is. Suppt/Resistance, swing high/lows, in the middle of a consolidation (not gd!) ?
Space = Where's the nearest price targets?
Shape = PA?
Location & Shape (PA's shape in the context of itself & the bars around it) --- are correct..
to "greatly enhance your A-Ha moment/light bulb", i'll encourage you to find about "Space" through Sir mbqb11's free guest videos (whether u have seen them or not; highly recommended reviewing). the charts in the guest section help a lot too.

Quote
Been going through quite abit of charts by the more seasoned traders here, and have some questions because of some of the variations I see from the "ideal" model of,
"Green Hammer/Red Shooting Star"+ Confluence of S/R + Profit Tgts Decently Far Away.
since we all are unique, it's expected that we all trade & see things differently. so it would be difficult to say what's "ideal" for 1 person & the other.
but "nice shaped PA + Nice location + nice space + confluence/s" is a good place to start.
  • #38,471
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:54pm Jul 22, 2009 10:54pm
Quoting datogio
Great post Jim, realizing that approach was an eureka moment for me, that really helps, is very simple and eliminates the fear of losing completely.

Got no time to be afraid anymore. lol

Observing the trade management style of James16, learning the Price Action stucture of a highly confluenced setup from Mike, noting the high layered confluence of a great location from raczek, etc . . . sure can make for a great trade.

The tight trade management style does make for more relaxing trades for me as well.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #38,472
  • Jul 22, 2009 11:10pm Jul 22, 2009 11:10pm
Quoting jarroo
Observing the trade management style of James16, learning the Price Action stucture of a highly confluenced setup from Mike, noting the high layered confluence of a great location from raczek, etc . . . sure can make for a great trade.

The tight trade management style does make for more relaxing trades for me as well.
Don't forget the discipline of Jarroo in there
  • #38,473
  • Jul 22, 2009 11:17pm Jul 22, 2009 11:17pm
Quoting mbqb11
Don't forget the discipline of Jarroo in there

Its almost robotic now . . . when all things line up.

The Patience discipline is what I'm always working on. lol.

Although it does get easier knowing that all the waiting will be rewarded. It always does.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #38,474
  • Jul 22, 2009 11:20pm Jul 22, 2009 11:20pm
Look for price action here ...we should at least get a retracement to the last fall over the past couple of days...

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  • #38,475
  • Jul 22, 2009 11:25pm Jul 22, 2009 11:25pm
Quoting TiaForex

This is why we have good MM. Because some win and some lose and we come out on top. If you're scared about each individual trade being a loser, then maybe you're risking too much? I certainly think everyone should experience trading live with such a small amount that a loser doesn't matter and a winner doesn't matter. Maybe 0.5% risk for a while?
I think this is a good point. For me, my live account is small, so that a loss doesn't really bother me. BUT the winners are also small and don't get me excited either. I plan my trades, trade my plan, and focus on minimizing risk. I don't let my winners turn into losers, and I get my stops to BE and take my profits, even though the dollar amount is very small.

By doing this, I have been able to take the emotion out of my trading. This has been said before, but don't focus on the profit, just focus on taking good trades and becoming a good trader. Look at things in percentage terms. You'd be surprised at the change in your bottom line by taking this approach.

Also--I've stated this before but I trade a large demo along with my small live account. I mirror the trades (same risk, stops etc.). For me, this shows that after a while these seemingly insignificant dollar amounts really turn into a lot when one is properly capitalized.

Scott
  • #38,476
  • Jul 22, 2009 11:36pm Jul 22, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting Shermenator
Look for price action here ...we should at least get a retracement to the last fall over the past couple of days...

Bullish PA around the 1.1000 would be juicy.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #38,477
  • Edited Jul 23, 2009 12:28am Jul 22, 2009 11:50pm | Edited Jul 23, 2009 12:28am
Quoting scott087
This has been said before, but don't focus on the profit, just focus on taking good trades and becoming a good trader. Look at things in percentage terms. You'd be surprised at the change in your bottom line by taking this approach.
Scott
It can't be said enough scott.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #38,478
  • Jul 23, 2009 12:03am Jul 23, 2009 12:03am
scott,
I agree with jarroo.

I too, like this one:
Quote
......I trade a large demo along with my small live account. I mirror the trades (same risk, stops etc.). For me, this shows that after a while these seemingly insignificant dollar amounts really turn into a lot when one is properly capitalized.
This is a very coordinated, well thought-out pro-transition process.
  • #38,479
  • Jul 23, 2009 12:11am Jul 23, 2009 12:11am
Quoting batesmotel
Ok...I gotcha point....

My real question is this....if we have a picture perfect PA that just happens to close smack dab on top of a major ppz (support or resistance) area....can we take this trade and assume it will break the ppz since it is sitting right on top of it?

GregB
There is a great post from James16 on this. I'm suprised jaroo hasn't posted it yet

In your situation, I would look at #4.

This is seriously important to watch these areas, as james says, if we aren't prepared before we put the trade on, these areas can give us a loss. Read this, write it out, print it, hang it on your computer. It will save and help you a lot more than you think.



"THIS IS CRITICAL.

WE MUST LEARN TO:

Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.

if we know its there, we have several choices.

1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken."

Scott
  • #38,480
  • Jul 23, 2009 12:16am Jul 23, 2009 12:16am
Quoting scott087
There is a great post from James16 on this. I'm suprised jaroo hasn't posted it yet

In your situation, I would look at #4.

This is seriously important to watch these areas, as james says, if we aren't prepared before we put the trade on, these areas can give us a loss. Read this, write it out, print it, hang it on your computer. It will save and help you a lot more than you think.



"THIS IS CRITICAL.

WE MUST LEARN TO:

Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into...

lol Nice one scott.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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